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http://peacekorea.org/zbxe/1641629
Ichiro Yuasa (President of Peace Depot, Japan)
April, 2013.
The year 2013 marks the 60th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice Agreement. But we can not see the path turning the Korean War Armistice Agreement into a permanent peace accord in spite of the length of time that has passed. On the contrary, military tension is growing due to the satellite launch and 3rd nuclear test by North Korea(DPRK).
Aiming to maintain the current political system, North Korea is pushing forward the development of nuclear weapons. Despite the fact that this has led them to be isolated from the world, what is the background to make a choice like that? Underlying the actions is distrust of the United States. North Korea was singled out as part of the axis of evil in the era of the Bush administration. North Korea witnessed the reality of Saddam Hussein of Iraq being crushed by the US in 2003, and started pushing forward the development of nuclear weapons. As a result of this, it is obvious that until there is no guarantee of being crushed unilaterally by the United States, North Korea will have no intention to give up the development of nuclear weapons.
In Northeast Asia, Cold-War thinking is continuing
Even though it has been more than 20 years from the end of the Cold War that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall, it is difficult to say that the world has been freed from Cold-War thinking.
In Europe, after German unification, the formation of the EU, and the launch of the European Security Cooperation Mechanism (OSCE), the risk of military conflict no longer exists. However, even in Europe, about 200 tactical U.S. nuclear weapons are deployed.
In Northeast Asia, the Korean War has not ended. And due to North Korea's nuclear development, unprecedented military confrontation continues.
The United States and Russia continue to deploy about 10% of the nuclear weapons they held in immediately alarm armed. Around the world, the reality is that we have not been freed from Cold-War thinking.
The existence of the military demarcation line at 38 degrees north symbolizes that the Cold-War structure still remains in Northeast Asia. This has again been demonstrated by the lack of determination of what constitutes the borderline at sea. Therefore, as with the Yongpyongdo shelling, a small conflict is likely to be repeated.
The nuclear development of North Korea continues, the military cooperation of Japan-U.S.-South Korea has becomes stronger, and China-Russia have advanced the modernization of their military forces. The vicious circle, of the so-called "Security dilemma" in which mutual distrust invents a nuclear arms race, is maintained. According to this scenario, all we can see in the future is that the military tension will continue constantly. We cannot view the road to peace and security with this structure maintained.
The only solution now is an inclusive framework, "Common security," be created by conversation and the cooperation between multiple countries to take us out of the vicious circle of the "Security dilemma".
The concept of "Common security" is one that the Palme Committee ("Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues") advocated in 1982. This is the idea that "Common security" will be formed by conversation between multiple countries to secure agreement on the assumption that all countries have a right to safety. This idea led the way to the cold war ending, and it led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the formation of the EU in Europe. Furthermore, it is said that it led to the formation of the regional security mechanism of OSCE in 1995. I came to Geneva in the first half of the 1990s with the feeling of wanting to learn about the changes in Europe since the 1980s.
Unfortunately, in Northeast Asia, we did not see such a move. It is necessary to advance the approach that forms the framework of "Common security" in Northeast Asia now. So, I want to advocate the formation of a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone(NEA-NWFZ) with the verification system as a basis of a bigger frame formation to produce " Cooperation security" between multiple countries.
Importance of NEA-NWFZ
As the Cold War is still maintained in NEA, we need to consider looking back to the early 90s when the end of the Cold War began in Europe. There was a chance then to make changes in the nuclear strategy and military structure in Northeast Asia because of the ending of the Cold War. In the meantime, the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula came into force on 20th Feb, 1992. This was epoch-making history. This Declaration included some but not all of the core elements of other NWFZs, including prohibitions on the testing, manufacture, production, receiving, possession, storing, deployment or use of nuclear weapons. Although it was not called a NWFZ, it was in fact the fourth NWFZ to be negotiated following the earlier treaties at that time. Unfortunately, the Declaration was never successfully implemented. The Declaration did not develop a fully-fledged NWFZ treaty structure under which there would not only be verification provisions but also compliance mechanisms. Nothing has advanced due to the lack of efforts in making a verification system and the negative security assurance by the nuclear weapon states (China, Russia, and United States). The U.S-DPRK relations become a simmering conflict only two years later. Ccommitment to the joint declaration was not carried out, and the plan was derailed.
The six-party talks started in 2003, and set a goal of "verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," but, as long as North Korea's retention of weapons can not be determined, we have been frustrated a number of times. Twist and turn has continued for 10 years since. For example, in February 2012, a US-North Korea agreement by high-level consultation was made. But then a satellite was launched, sanctions followed from the UNSC, and then there was a third nuclear test. In short, the vicious cycle of military tension has continued.
Only due to the idea of six-party talks being called "verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula", the stalemate can not be resolved. If it is seen from the side of North Korea at that time, an unequal feeling that only its denuclearization was urged from the nuclear weapon posessing states, and Japan-ROK relying on US nuclear deterrence will not be removed. In order to overcome this impasse, Japan and ROK should propose the NEA-NWFZ to change the mutual mistrust, and, as a result, a situation in which North Korea may dismantle their nuclear arsenal at ease can be introduced. A proposal of a NEA-NWF Z Treaty is the only answer to break down this wall.
But the Japanese Government is passive to the NEA-NWFZ. They say that in Northeast Asia, “the realistic environment for NWFZ is not yet ready. We have to try towards realization of the nuclear abandonment by North Korea for improvement of the security environment in Northeast Asia."
So the government has not made an idea to resolve this problem in the past. But various proposals have been made by NGOs. In 1995, Dr.Umebayashi (Peace Depot special adviser) presented the“Three plus Three Nations Arrangement” for a NEA-NWFZ. This plan is considered to be a most realistic and fundamental arrangement because it involves the key three non-nuclear states of the region, namely the ROK, the DPRK and Japan, as the central players and three neighboring nuclear weapon states, namely the United States, China, and Russia, as supportive players of the arrangement. This idea has a positive feature in that the neighboring nuclear weapon states will participate from the start in the treaty. If a legally binding denuclearization of Northeast Asia is achieved, it will be a major breakthrough in the creation of a peace process.
Aiming at securing the current structure of the country, North Korea has declared nuclear possession. Therefore, North Korea will stick to nuclear possession to the last minute. In the process, or in parallel with the consultation aimed at a NWFZ concept, taking steps that lead to the end of the Korean War is important. It is the conducting of negotiations being converted to peace agreements that will lead to a truce. Progress of talks on a NEA-NWFZ and the end of the Korean War is the solution to this problem.
To promote the international cooperation of Parliamentarians, Mayors and Citizens
In order to realize a NWFZ, we have to strengthen the public opinion and move the governments through the power of the people. I will introduce the efforts in Japan.
First, it is necessary to expand the support of Parliamentarians who have the direct influence on power for each government. Unfortunately, by the time the Abe administration appeared, this movement is shrinking. However, in May last year, PNND Japan launched a NWFZ Working Team. It has started its activities in support of an agreement.
The second is support from the local authorities that assumes the defense of resident's lives and safety. In Japan, the National Council of Japan Nuclear Free Local Authorities(JNFLA) is a network of 287 local authorities. One of the major themes of the council has been a NEA-NWFZ.
The idea of utilizing a sister-cities relationship will be useful to promote the idea of a NEA-NWFZ. As of today, 129 local authorities in Japan have entered a sister-city agreement with local authorities in South Korea. We would like to establish cooperation among local authorities in Japan and South Korea. The first step could be a joint declaration by mayors in Japan and the ROK which calls for the promotion of a NEA-NWFZ. Daegu City and Hiroshima will be a good example to begin with.
For more than 10 years, Peace Depot has jointly held many workshops involving Japan and South Korean NGOs in Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, New York, Vienna and Geneva. In 2004, we announced a Model NEA-NWFZ Treaty drafted in cooperation with activists and scholars. It is a driving force of public opinion formation by civil society to support the action of parliamentarians and mayors.
In March 2009, today`s co-sponsorship groups launched a campaign calling for endorsements to the “Statement of Support for a NEA-NWFZ”. We have listed the endorsements of the 409 mayors in Japan. In August 2011 and March 2012, the mayor of Nagasaki also cooperated with Peace Depot to submit to the Japanese Government this document.
In addition, it is an important problem to obtain the support for a NEA-NWFZ from China as they have insisted on negative security assurance before. Moreover, they have enormous influence on North Korea.
The cooperation in various areas on a NWFZ agreement between Japan and the ROK must be constructed in a multilayer approach. While referring to "comprehensive agreement on peace and security in Northeast Asia" proposed by the former U.S. High officials Morton H.Halperin, we would like to promote the NWFZ.
By the way, there have been five NWFZs established in the world, each of which is stipulated in an international treaty. Five NWFZs embrace 118 countries and areas where about 2.1 billion people live. Almost all of the land in the Southern Hemisphere is covered by NWFZs. Countries in NWFZ agreements recognize that it is not nuclear deterrence but a “Non-Nuclear Umbrella” that brings security to them.
The NWFZs already established were not easily made. A government somewhere proposes the treaty and a resolution of agreement is adopted in the United Nations. The earliest treaties took up to 9 years to be ratified. Between multiple countries of a region with a constant tension, the difficult problems of historical details is sure to exist. A NWFZ treaty was approved for the first time through a tenacious process of building multilayered dialogue between multiple countries, and cultivating the soil from this mutual cooperation while untying those difficult problems one by one. Declaring that the Japanese and South Korean governments want to make a NEA-NWFZ Treaty in a public place at early time is extremely important now.
Efforts to expand a NWFZ into the Northern Hemisphere have been made through various approaches now. The following should be made in Northeast Asia.
* This article was presented at the 2013 NPT Preparatory Committee NGO Workshop.