(Nov 4, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Nov 4, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요? 미국의 고용시장 지표는 10월에 더 좋아 지고, 중국의 광군지에 shopping spree는 올해도 신기록이 예상되네요. Norway는 수산양식업의 과학화로 미래산업을 준비하고요.

1. U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009, Reuters

- 미국의 10월중 신규 고용이 227천명(시장전망 180천명)으로9월의 137천명 대비 큰 폭 증가하였습니다. Working age population이 월평균 100천명 증가하는데, 그 2배 이상이 신규 취업한 것 이에 따라 고용주가 필요 인력을 고용하려면 급여 인상이 불가피 -> 10월중 임금이 전년 동월대비 3.1%나 상승(2009년9월이래 최고) ->소위 Wage inflation으로 가는 중이군요.

실업률도 전월과 같은 3.7%로 48년만의 최저 수준 유지.

전문가들은 고용지표 호조 및 물가 상승 압력으로 Fed가 12월 FOMC회의에서 기준금리를 인상할 것으로 예상하네요 (다음주 화요일 중간 선거일이므로 5일 FOMC회의에서는 금리 인상하기 어렵겠죠)

2. How Singles' Day Became Biggest Shopping Spree Ever, Bloomberg

- 매년 판매 신기록을 세운 중국의 Singles’ Day(光棍节: 병음guānggùnjié) shopping spree가 올해도 이어질 것으로 보이는군요.

 1) Singles’ day 유래

11/11 – 4 digits evoke bare branches棍(몽둥이 곤)

1990년대초 중국 대학가에서 unmarried young adults 축제 형태로 시작 -> 알리바바 그롭(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd)이 e-commerce로 연결, 세계 최대의 shopping spree 행사로 발전. 중국의 rising 중산층이 기여.

 2) 光棍节(광군지에) 쇼핑은 Alibaba co-founder인 Jack Ma가 미국의 ‘Black Friday’의 대할인 전통을 도입한 것. 홀아비 날이지만, 남녀노소 모두 축제 분위기 속에 쇼핑. 미국 Amazon과 중국Alibaba의 주된 차이점은 아마존은 자가 재고 제품을 판매하는데 비해 알리바바는 상인(판매자)과 소비자가 서로를 찾게 하는 장소 제공 digital landlord 역할을 한다는 점

3) Alibaba그룹이 시작하고 주도하고 있지만, 다른 e-commerce업체들(JD.com Inc. Vipshop Holdings Ltd. 등)도 대거 참여.

4) Alibaba그룹은 광군지에의 국제화를 위하여, 외국 brand 유치 및 AliExpress, Lazada 외국인을 위한 신규 platform 개설.

5)광군지에 단 하루 동안 판매 규모가 미국의 Black Friday 전날- Cyber Monday까지 5일간 판매 규모를 2배를 능가함. 2017년11월 11일 판매액 168.2bn yuan ($24.2bn)으로 전년대비 39% 증가. 주 판매처는Taobao and Tmall(Alibaba’s main shopping sites)

6) 올해는? 주식시장 침체와 미국과의 관세 전쟁 여파가 소비자에게 얼마만큼 영향을 줄지가 관건. 그럼에도 Alibaba그룹은 “new retail” initiative를 전개해 소규모 상점들은 대거 입점시키고, 20만개의 smart stores(on-off line 가계)를 연결하는 등의 노력 ->올해 the largest ever Singles’ Day를 전망하네요. 잘 되기를!

3. Building the Silicon Valley of the sea. Future of Seafood, Reuters

- 세계 최대 연어 양식장을 건설한 Norway가 한걸음 더 나아가 그들의 수산양식업을 미래 산업화하려는 야심 찬 계획을 추진하고 있습니다.

Climate change 영향으로 수온이 상승하고 수온에 sensitive한 salmon양식은 더 북극 쪽으로 이전해야 하는데 노르웨이는 해안선(피오르드)이 매우 길고 북국까지 벋어 있죠.

문제는 성질 까다로운(picky) 연어의 먹이(feed) 확보가 쉽지 않다는 점. 현재 연어양식장에서는 Krill새우(고래, 펭귄 먹이)을 남극해에서 잡아와 먹인다고 함. 이에 연어 양식 업체, 연구소 등이 연어 먹이의 대체 가능성 등에 대한 연구를 집중하고 있음(아미노산, 비타민 등 균형 있는 영양, 수질 오염 방지 등). 북쪽 도시 Bergen and Stavanger가 Silicon Valley of the Sea로 부상하고요.      

<생각>. Vision 넘치는 Norway!

Brent oil 판 돈으로 국부펀드(National Pension Fund Global) 조성. 스웨덴 중앙은행이 외국채 및 세계 1류 기업 주식에 투자, World top 수익으로 현 운용자산이 1,100조원이상 (국민1인당 2억원). 석유 고갈을 대비한 그들의 선견지명, 이제 또 미래 수산 양식업을 준비하는 걸 보니 정말 부럽습니다. 지도자의 선견지명!

반도체 1위 한국은 4차산업혁명을 선도해야 하지 않은가?

정견만 드림

1. U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009, Reuters

Lucia Mutikani

November 2, 2018 / 1:24 PM / Updated 10 hours ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December.

Average hourly earnings rose five cents, or 0.2 percent, in October after advancing 0.3 percent in September. That boosted the annual increase in wages to 3.1 percent, the biggest gain since April 2009, from 2.8 percent in September.

Employers also increased hours for workers last month. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in September.

“The report shows a booming U.S. economy with a sufficient whiff of wage inflation to keep the Fed on track to raise rates in December and at least twice next year,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.

The dollar .DXY was trading higher against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street fell while U.S. Treasury yields rose.

Strong annual wage growth mirrors other data published this week showing wages and salaries rising in the third quarter by the most since mid-2008. Hourly compensation also increased at a brisk pace in the third quarter.

Firming wages support the view that inflation will hover around the Fed’s 2.0 percent target for a while. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding the volatile food and energy components, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has increased by 2.0 percent for five straight months.

GRAPHIC: U.S. wage growth - tmsnrt.rs/2CVLTHg

MODESTLY INFLATIONARY

The Fed is not expected to raise rates at its policy meeting next week, but economists believe October’s strong labor market data could see the U.S. central bank signal an increase in December. The Fed raised borrowing costs in September for the third time this year.

Some economists said Fed officials were likely to view the low unemployment and rising wages as modestly inflationary.

“The risk in 2019 is that the Fed will increase the pace of rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Market participants will likely need to adjust their expectations going forward.”

Employers, scrambling to find qualified workers, are boosting wages. There are a record 7.14 million open jobs.

Online retail giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) announced last month it would raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour for U.S. employees starting in November. Workers at United States Steel Corp (X.N) are set to receive a hefty pay rise also.

Employment gains averaged 218,000 jobs per month over the past three months, double the roughly 100,000 needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

That is seen supporting the economy through at least early 2019 when gross domestic product is expected to significantly slow as the stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, rose to 62.9 percent last month from 62.7 percent in September.

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent, matching a 17-year low hit in August.

The employment-to-population ratio rose to 60.6 percent, the highest since January 2009, from 60.4 in September.

Last month, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 42,000 jobs after being unchanged in September. Retail payrolls rose by only 2,400 amid declines in employment at gasoline stations and sporting goods and music stores.

Construction companies hired 30,000 more workers in October. Jobs in the sector have been increasing despite weakness in the housing market. Government payrolls rose by 4,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment increased by 32,000 jobs in October after adding 18,000 positions in September. So far, hiring in the manufacturing sector does not appear to have been affected by the White House’s protectionist trade policy, which has contributed to capacity constraints at factories.

The United States is locked in a bitter trade war with China that has led to tit-for-tat tariffs. Washington also has imposed tariffs on products from other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico, prompting retaliation.

Despite the protectionist measures, the trade deficit continues to deteriorate. In a separate report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion in September, widening for a fourth straight month.

“Tariffs have done little to dent America’s appetite for imports,” said Emily Mandel, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The trade deficit will remain a drag on the economy.”

광군(光棍节; 빛나는 막대기

guānggùn节 [jié]

 중국의 경제 발전에 기름을 부은 것은 전자상거래의 발전과
편리하고 안전한 결제시스템입니다.
그 주역들인 티몰(Tmall)과 타오바오(Taobao)
의 차이점과 특징을 알아보겠습니다.  매달 약 6 억 3 천 4 백만명의 인구 - 중국 인구의 거의 절반 -이 스마트 폰으로 Alibaba Group Holding의 Taobao Marketplace 및 Tmall 전자 상거래 앱을 끌어 올립니다.

[출처] 타오바오 방송 Taobao Tmall 한국계정승인|작성자 stade48
*1편에서는 타오바오(Taobao)의 특징을
2편에서는 티몰(Tmall)의 특징과
두 플랫폼의 차이점

 중국의 경제 발전에 기름을 부은 것은
전자상거래의 발전과
편리하고 안전한 결제시스템입니다.
그 주역들인 티몰(Tmall)과 타오바오(Taobao)
의 차이점과 특징을 알아보겠습니다.
*1편에서는 타오바오(Taobao)의 특징을
2편에서는 티몰(Tmall)의 특징과
두 플랫폼의 차이점ㅜ

타오바오 셀러의 수는 2천만이 넘기 때문에 통제가 힘든 건 사실입니다

-==

Alibaba.com[edit]

Alibaba.com, the primary company of Alibaba, is as of 2014, the world's largest online business-to-business trading platform for small businesses.^[41] Founded in Hangzhou in eastern China, Alibaba.com has three main services. The company's English language portal Alibaba.com handles sales between importers and exporters from more than 240 countries and regions.^[42] The Chinese portal 1688.com was developed for domestic business-to-business trade in China. In addition, Alibaba.com offers a transaction-based retail website, AliExpress.com, which allows smaller buyers to buy small quantities of goods at wholesale prices.

Taobao.com淘宝网 (táobǎowǎng)

는 Alibaba의 소비자 대 소비자 플랫폼이며, Tmall.com은 브랜드가 소비자에게 직접 판매되는 B2C 플랫폼입니다.

Tmall.com (Chinese: 天猫; pinyin: Tiānmāo ), formerly Taobao Mall , is a Chinese-language website for business-to-consumer (B2C) online retail, spun off from Taobao, operated... Tmall.com (Chinese: 天猫; pinyin: Tiānmāo), formerly Taobao Mall, is a Chinese-language website for business-to-consumer (B2C) online retail, spun off from Taobao, operated in China by Alibaba Group. It is a platform for local Chinese and international businesses to sell brand name goods to consumers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Being the world's second biggest e-commerce website after Taobao, it has over 500 million monthly active users, as of February 2018. It is the world's ninth most visited website

2. How Singles' Day Became Biggest Shopping Spree Ever, Bloomberg

By Lulu Yilun Chen and Robert Fenner

‎2018‎년 ‎11월‎ ‎2‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎6‎:‎00

Singles’ Day is the world’s biggest shopping event. In less than a decade, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. turned a quirky celebration for unmarried young adults in China into a global extravaganza drawing in thousands of retailers and hundreds of millions of shoppers of all ages -- hitched or otherwise. It’s spread to other e-commerce operators and will include more brick-and-mortar stores than ever before this year. The big unknown: To what extent, if any, the brewing U.S.-China trade war will cut into Singles’ Day sales.

1. Why is it called Singles’ Day?

When Nov. 11 is written numerically -- 11/11 -- the four digits evoke “bare branches,” the Chinese expression‎ for the unattached. On Chinese university campuses in the 1990s, 11/11 evolved into a celebration of being single in a culture that emphasizes relationships -- an antidote to Valentine’s Day. The country’s rising middle class turned that into a phenomenon.

2. Why does Singles’ Day revolve around shopping?

Credit Alibaba’s billionaire co-founder Jack Ma. As he began building the company, Ma latched onto the idea of centering a shopping promotion around a holiday, drawing inspiration from the American Black Friday tradition of mega-discounts. He chose Nov. 11 starting in 2009. Early on, his company’s marketing encouraged consumers to treat themselves in celebration of being single. But the day has never been limited to the lonesome, and it targets every demographic. Ma -- who never shies from taking the stage -- will preside over his brainchild for the final time in 2018 as Alibaba’s chairman. He’s stepping down Jan. 1 and handing the reins to his protégé Daniel Zhang.

3. Is this exclusively an Alibaba event?

Though Alibaba was the first to link Singles’ Day to consumerism, plenty of rivals have joined in. JD.com Inc. does promotions, as does Vipshop Holdings Ltd. and a raft of other e-commerce companies. Amazon.com Inc., a bit player in China, started Prime Day in 2015 in the U.S. to drive a similar sort of shopping frenzy. A key difference between Alibaba and Amazon is the Chinese company is a digital landlord for merchants and consumers to find each other, while the empire founded by Jeff Bezos holds much of its own inventory to sell.

4. Is Singles’ Day for Chinese shoppers only?

While the mainland dominates sales, Alibaba is trying to make it more global. That means getting foreign brands involved in selling to the Chinese. It’s also working to promote its English-language websites such as wholesaling platform Alibaba.com. The 2018 edition will again involve AliExpress, which targets consumers abroad, and Lazada, its Southeast Asian operation.

5. How big is Singles’ Day?

More than twice as much merchandise is sold over the 24-hour period than during the entire five-day U.S. holiday-buying spree that begins on Thanksgiving, runs through Black Friday and ends on Cyber Monday. Every year has exceeded the one before, with last year’s sales climbing 39 percent to 168.2 billion yuan ($24.2 billion). That’s on par with the gross domestic product of some smaller European nations. Most of the buying was via Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba’s main shopping sites.

6. What will be different this year?

It remains to be seen whether a depressed Chinese stock market and higher import tariffs resulting from U.S.-China trade tensions will curb consumers’ enthusiasm. On the other hand, Alibaba has significantly boosted the brick-and-mortar element of Singles’ Day by accelerating its investments in malls, convenience stores and food delivery services -- part of what it calls its “new retail” initiative. Essentially, any transaction made via payment service Alipay will count. The initiative involves equipping traditional retailers with new technology to manage inventory and to serve as distribution centers for online shoppers, as well as connecting mom-and-pop stores to its platform. There are also 200,000 so-called smart stores that seek to combine the online and offline retail experience. Alibaba forecasts 2018 will be the largest ever Singles’ Day.

The Reference Shelf

• Bloomberg QuickTakes on Alibaba’s rise to become an e-commerce giant and on the U.S. Black Friday sales.
• More on Ma’s "new retail" plan to revitalize brick-and-mortar stores.
• Alibaba sales are going strong.
• Amazon’s Prime Day generated more than $1 billion in sales this year.
• China Daily looks at preparations for Singles’ Day.
• China targets fake online reviews and goosed sales numbers.

3. Building the Silicon Valley of the sea. Future of Seafood, Reuters

Norwegians are now raising salmon in the Arctic Circle. A maverick band of entrepreneurs and scientists is trying to help future-proof aquaculture against the havoc caused by climate change.

By MATTHEW GREEN and MARYANNE MURRAY
Filed Oct. 30, 2018, 2 p.m. GMT

Norway has built the world’s biggest salmon-farming industry. But it wants to go bigger. With their lucrative oil fields now in decline, Norwegians have ambitious plans for aquaculture to power their economy far into the future.

Climate change could make those dreams harder to realize. As waters warm, more salmon farmers may have to move into the country’s Arctic regions to raise the temperature-sensitive species. And there’s another problem. Salmon feed is based on fishmeal, produced by grinding up wild-caught fish. With climate change pushing underwater ecosystems to the breaking point, Big Aquaculture is seeking ways to feed fish that aren’t hostage to increasingly unpredictable oceans.

The Norwegian cities of Bergen and Stavanger have become a Silicon Valley of the Sea as entrepreneurs and scientists look for answers. The innovators hope to find sustainable sources of feed, minimize pollution from fish farms and take new ideas to scale.

"What we're already seeing in Norway is the impact of climate change on our ecosystems. We have new species entering our ecosystems, we see the warmer waters are challenging to our salmon. But in Norway we have been very lucky because we have a very, very long coastline, so we had opportunities to move our production higher north. A few years ago, perhaps 10 years ago, nobody thought we would be able to produce salmon up in the far north, but now we are actually producing salmon far up in the north as well."

Tanja Hoel
Managing director, Seafood Innovation Cluster

This organization groups companies, researchers and scientists looking for new ways to farm fish.

The feed problem

Norway’s aquaculture industry will go to great lengths to secure feed for farmed fish. It has even sent factory ships to the other end of the Earth to vacuum krill — tiny crustaceans eaten by penguins and whales — from Antarctic waters. But with climate change breaking down old certainties about patterns of life in the ocean, the industry is searching for new ways to feed salmon without using wild-caught fish.
That’s not easy. Salmon and other carnivorous fish can be very picky. Not only do they need just the right balance of amino and fatty acids, vitamins and minerals to grow properly, they need their nutrition delivered in a form they can digest. Researchers want to solve the problem by learning from nature’s infinite capacity to reuse, repurpose and recycle.

각국 중앙은행들이 지난 3분기중 $5.82bn 어치 금을 매입하였습니다(2015년 4분기 이래 최대폭) 세계경제 정세가 불안정해 진 결과라고 봐야겠죠

Gold buying by central banks hits its highest level in almost three years, CNBC

David Reid | @cnbcdavy

Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 2 Hours Ago

• Gold buying by central banks reaches its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015.
• Around $5.82 billion was spent during the third quarter to boost central bank reserves.
• The buying was offset by heavy selling of gold-backed funds during the same period.

Central banks around the world have upped their spending on gold to the highest level in almost three years, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

More than 148 metric tons of gold were bought by the national banks in the three months to the end of September, a rise of 22 percent on the same period last year.

Using the current spot price of $1,223 per troy ounce, the gold purchases by the banks added up to a $5.82 billion spending splurge on the precious metal.

Russia's central bank led the buying, purchasing more than 92 tons of gold. This marked the country's biggest quarterly net purchase on records that stretch back to 1993.

In May this year, the Russian central bank's First Deputy Governor Dmitry Tulin told lawmakers in the lower house of parliament that gold was "a 100 percent guarantee from legal and political risks."

The WGC, a non-profit association of the world's leading gold producers, said other big buyers of gold during the third quarter were the central banks of Turkey (18.5 tons), Kazakhstan (13.4 tons) and India (13.7 tons).

In Europe, the national banks of Poland and Hungary also ramped up gold purchases. According to the WGC, the latter has said the buying is to enhance the long-term stability of its reserves.

Gold is often considered as a hedge against any fall in value of the U.S. dollar. During the third quarter, the dollar index ticked up by around 0.7 percent.

Despite the appetite from several central banks, the price of gold fell around 4 percent during the period, slipping below $1,200 per troy ounce to hit its lowest level since January 2017. Bullion has since seen a positive month in October, rising by around 2 percent.

The WGC said that while central bank demand was complemented by more buying of physical bars and coins, jewelry and orders from technology firms, investors took flight.

Data revealed by the council revealed that selling of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the third quarter resulted in sales of more than 116 tons of the precious metal.

The overall net effect was that gold demand in the third quarter was 964.3 tons, 6.2 tons higher on a year-on-year basis.

[모러바(volt)]

노르웨이.부럽습니다.

[도드람]

우리는 수출로 먹고 살아야 되는데....업주는 고용인을 자르지 못하고 생산성 떨어지는 데도 월급 줘야 한다면 결과는 뻔 합니다 IMF 도 노동시장 유연성 부족으로 당한 부분이 크지 않나요 정고문님 ??