IMF lowers Korea's growth forecast for 2024 to 2.2% IMF, 2024한국경제성장하향전망

[김우정]

IMF가 한국의 2024 경제성장전망을 2.4%에서 2.2%로 하향했습니다.
세계경제는 3%에서 2.9%, 중국은 4.5%에서 4.2%, EU 1.5%에서 1.2%로 하향조정했습니다.
미국만 1%에서 1.5%로 상향하여 전망했습니다. 
주원 현대경제경제연구원 연구실장은 "장기적인 저성장기간"으로 진입할 가능성이 높다고 경고합니다. 
 
 IMF lowers Korea's economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.2%
IMF, 2024한국경제성장 2.2%로 하향전망

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2023-10-10 17:00 Updated : 2023-10-10 17:03
Korea Times

A graph of the International Monetary Fund's economic growth forecasts for 2024.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2024 economic growth forecast for Korea to 2.2 percent, Tuesday, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast in July. However, it maintained the country's 2023 growth forecast at 1.4 percent.
국제통화기금(IMF)은 화요일에 한국의 2024년 경제성장전망을 2.2%로 하향 조정했다. 이는 7월 이전 전망대비 0.2%포인트 하락한 수치이다. 그러나 IMF는 2023년 성장전망을 1.4%로 유지했다.

The IMF also cut its global economic growth outlook for 2024, bringing it down to 2.9 percent from 3 percent, predicting a "stable but slow" path for the global economy. It held its 2023 outlook steady at 3 percent.
IMF는 또한 2024년 전 세계경제성장률을 3%에서 2.9%로 낮추었으며, "안정적이나 느린" 경제성장 경로를 예측했다. 2023년 전망은 3%로 유지했다.

Updated every three months, the IMF's growth estimate for Korea for 2024 has been on a continuous decline ― from a forecast of 2.6 percent in January to 2.4 percent in both April and July.
IMF의 2024년 한국 성장예상치는 3개월마다 업데이트되며, 1월에는 2.6%로 예측되었으나, 4월과 7월에는 모두 2.4%로 조정되었다. 

The institution did not comment on the reasons behind the lowered growth forecast for Korea.
이 기관은 한국의 성장 예측치를 낮춘 이유에 대해 언급하지 않았다.

This month's forecast raises concerns about the uncertainty surrounding Korea's economy, which is teetering near recession influenced by both domestic and international factors.
이번 달의 전망은 국내외적 요인에 영향을 받아 불확실성이 높아지고 있는 한국 경제에 대한 우려를 높였다. 

Two months ago, the Bank of Korea (BOK) projected a growth rate of 2.2 percent for 2024, and remarked that "significant uncertainties stem from the trajectory of China's economy, the economic patterns of leading advanced nations and fluctuations in international energy prices."
2개월 전에 한국은 중국 경제의 궤적, 선진국들의 경제패턴, 국제 에너지가격 변동 등에서 중대한 불확실성이 발생할 수 있다고 전망하며 2024년 성장률을 2.2%로 예측했다.

Amid faltering signs of a full recovery in exports, the economic woes are intensifying due to rising tensions in the Middle East and potential monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
수출회복이 미약한 흔적을 보이는 가운데 중동긴장과 미국 연방준비제도 의 금융 완화 가능성으로 경제적 어려움이 더욱 악화하고 있다.

"Given the increasing likelihood of moving into a prolonged low-growth period, there's an urgent need to develop and actively enforce policies that can proactively address these issues," said Joo Won, deputy director of Hyundai Research Institute. "We need consistent efforts to safeguard our domestic market from external challenges, ensuring the stability of our currency and financial landscape."
주원 현대경제연구원 연구실장은 "장기적인 저성장 기간으로 진입할 가능성이 높아지는 가운데 이러한 문제에 대응할 수 있는 정책을 개발하고 적극적으로 시행할 필요가 있다"고 말했다. "외부 도전으로부터 국내시장을 보호하고 통화와 금융 환경의 안정을 보장하기 위해 일관된 노력이 필요하다."

The IMF recognized the global economy for its strong resilience, even though a prolonged economic slowdown has been influenced by China's recession and a sluggish manufacturing sector.
IMF는 중국의 불경기와 침체된 제조업부문의 영향으로 인해 장기적인 경기둔화가 있음에도 불구하고 글로벌 경제를 강한 회복력을 갖춘 것으로 인식했다.

While the institution expects most countries to achieve their inflation targets by 2025, it cautioned central banks against easing their monetary policies prematurely until a clear downward trend emerges.
이 기관은 대부분의 국가들이 2025년까지 물가 목표를 달성할 것으로 예상하나, 명확한 하향 트렌드가 나타날 때까지 중앙은행들은 조기에 통화정책을 완화하지 말 것을 주의해야 한다.

Among major economies, only two nations saw an upgraded forecast for 2024. The U.S. estimate was revised upward by 0.5 percentage points, reaching 1.5 percent compared to its July prediction. Canada's forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6 percent. Conversely, Germany and the U.K. are anticipated to experience the most significant forecast reductions, dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
주요 경제국 중에서 2024년 전망치가 상향 조정된 나라는 두 나라뿐이다. 미국은 0.5%포인트 상향 조정된 1.5%로, 캐나다는 0.2%포인트 상향 조정된 1.6%로 전망했다. 반면 독일과 영국은 각각 0.4%포인트 하향 조정된 0.9%와 0.6%로 가장 큰 전망치 감소를 경험할 것으로 예상된다.

For 2023, the IMF adjusted Japan's growth outlook upward from 1.4 percent to 2 percent. The U.S. saw a rise from 1.8 percent to 2.1 percent, whereas Italy's projection was trimmed from 1.1 percent to 0.7 percent.
IMF는 일본의 2023년 성장 전망을 1.4%에서 2%로 상향 조정했다. 미국은 1.8%에서 2.1%로 상향 조정되었으며, 이탈리아의 예측은 1.1%에서 0.7%로 하향했다.

#IMF(International Monetary Fund)국제통화기금 #economicgrowthforecast경제성장전망 #2024 forecastforKorea2024년한국전망 #recession불황 #inflationtargets물가목표 #centralbanks중앙은행들 #majoreconomies주요경제국 #forecastreductions전망치감소 #growthoutlook성장전망 #monetary policies통화정책