세일이 없는 중국의 신형 잠수함

[위종민]

중국 광저우 조선소에서 1월 9일 민간 위성사진에 세일이 없는 새로운 잠수함 건조현장이 포착됐습니다. 사실 제가 보기엔 세일이 있는지 없는지 잘 모르겠습니다만, 전문가들이 그렇다고 하니.. 

추산에 따르면 길이는 45m, 폭이 5m 정도이고 선미엔 X자형 방향타가 장착돼 있고, 세일이 없다고 하네요. 유인인지 무인인지 알 수 없지만 무인이라면 미해군의 Orca XLUUV보다 6배~8배 가량 큰 세계 최대급의 무인잠수함이라고 합니다. 그러나 무인잠수함을 이렇게 크게 만들 이유가 없기 때문에 유인일 가능성이 높다고 추정하네요. 

New Unreported Submarine In China Leaves West Guessing - Naval News

New Unreported Submarine In China Leaves West Guessing

• Published on 03/02/2025
• By H I Sutton
• In News

Click To Enlarge. The new submarine has a distinctive and modern look, with no sail and large X-form rudders. Provisional illustration based on available intelligence.

China's incredible naval expansion and modernization continues. The latest surprise is yet another new and unexplained submarine. The boat, whose designation is unknown, has a distinctive ultra-modern layout.

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Along with the rapid building of invasion barges at Guangzhou Shipyard in southern China, a submarine has entered the scene. The shipyard is not known for submarine construction but the presence of the boat is revealed in satellite imagery.

The new boat was noticed in a floating dock by defence watcher MT Anderson. Naval News is able to confirm‎ that this is a new and previously unreported design.

China has, once again, surprised analysts by building a submarine in secret. Western submarines are reported in media years before they are even laid down. While there are always secrets surrounding their design and capabilities, their exitance cannot be kept secret. China however has a track record of building submarines in almost complete secrecy. This isn’t the first, and Naval News is often the first place you can read about these submarines. They typically do not feature in the official submarine force estimates shared by the U.S. Government.

The New Submarine

The submarine is distinct from the recently revealed Type-041 nuclear-battery design which was launched at Wuchang Shipyard near Wuhan. This design is smaller and likely has a different propulsion type (not nuclear assisted), and mission. It is also different from the ‘Olympic’ submarine revealed by Naval News in February 2022.

Preliminary estimates suggest that the new submarine is around 45 meters (148 feet) long and 5 meters (15 feet) across. The most notable features are the large X-form rudders at the stern, and the apparent absence of a sail. Sails are a standard feature but designers have sought ways to eliminate them to create a more streamlined boat. China is so far the only country to have built a sailless submarine, with one launched at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai in 2019.

The previous sailless submarine appears to have been purely experimental. It did not appear to have any torpedo tubes or sonar, required features for a warfighting boat. At first glance it appears conceivable that the new sailless submarine is a rebuild of the first. They are similar in size and form. The original boat is accounted for however, so we are confident that this latest boat is a newbuild design.

The X-form rudders are also novel for Chinese submarines although they are becoming increasingly common and reflect a wider trend in submarine design.

World’s Largest Uncrewed Submarine?

The new boat has the outward appearance of an uncrewed vessel. We expect these types to omit the sail, since there is no crew to need an access tower high above the waterline for use at sea. China, and indeed other leading navies, have active programs to build extra-large uncrewed submarines. And China’s program is the largest and most extensive with at least 5 types in the water.

But if this is the case, and it is an XLUUV (extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle), then it is the largest in the world. And not by a small margin; it is around 6-8 times larger than the U.S. Navy’s Orca XLUUV.

That China has built the world’s largest XLUUV is not inconceivable. It has already built the largest combat uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and seems willing to push boundaries. But if so, the question becomes why it is so large. There is no need for crew accommodation so even the largest XLUUVs need not be the same size as a traditional submarine. So it seems more likely that this is a crewed boat.

The role of the new submarine remains unclear. It is smaller than regular diesel-electric submarines, but may be particularly suitable for operations in shallow water. At the same time, it does appear to have torpedo tubes, and possibly a towed sonar array. These features suggest that it could be used to attack ships or submarines. An alternative explanation is that it is designed for special forces missions, or seabed warfare. Time may tell.

China’s sail-less mini-sub a new menace for Taiwan - Asia Times

China’s sail-less mini-sub a new menace for Taiwan

Stealth mini-sub another leap for China’s undersea war capabilities but sheer quantity may not be enough to beat Taiwan’s defenses

by Gabriel HonradaFebruary 5, 2025

Satellite imagery from January 9, 2025 appears to show the new Chinese submarine. Credit: X/@MT_Anderson

China’s unveiling of a sleek, sail-less mini-submarine signals a bold leap in stealth warfare. At the same time, it raises questions about the vessel’s value in a potential Taiwan blockade and whether sheer quantity can outweigh quality concerns in undersea combat.

This month, Naval News reported that China has just unveiled a new type of submarine spotted at the Guangzhou Shipyard, a facility unknown for submarine construction.

The vessel features a distinctive, ultra-modern design with large X-form rudders and no sail. This development, revealed through satellite imagery, underscores China’s ability to build submarines in secrecy, contrasting with the transparency of Western naval projects.

The submarine, approximately 45 meters long and 5 meters wide, differs from the Type 041 mini nuclear submarine and the “Olympic” mini-submarine.

Its design suggests it could be an extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (XLUUV), potentially the world’s largest, or a crewed vessel optimized for shallow water operations.

China is known to have built a sail-less mini-submarine in 2018, although that unit appears to be larger at an estimated 50 meters long and has no torpedo tubes, suggesting it may be a test prototype.

The absence of a sail, the presence of torpedo tubes and a possible towed sonar array indicate advanced stealth and combat capabilities.

Removing the traditional sail from a submarine minimizes its radar and sonar visibility. It also lowers its profile to reduce hydrodynamic drag, turbulence and noise while enhancing its speed and operational efficiency.

Further, using large X-form rudders boosts maneuverability, providing agility and stability for navigating complex underwater environments while supporting stealth.

Regarding armament, China’s new submarine features torpedo tubes for engaging enemy vessels and potentially housing missile launch systems against surface and land targets.   

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It may also be capable of minelaying to disrupt enemy navigation, supply routes, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and insert special forces into Taiwan’s frontline islands of Kinmen and Matsu or on secluded beaches on the main island.

Small submarines like China’s new model may confer operational advantages in the Taiwan Strait, which is almost less than 150 meters deep and 180 kilometers across.

In a December 2023 Proceedings article, William Toti mentions that the Taiwan Strait restricts submarines’ ability to maneuver vertically, making them more susceptible to detection and attacks, complicating evasive actions and limiting the effectiveness of traditional submarine tactics.

Further, the strait’s narrowness positions submarines close to anti-submarine warfare (ASW) assets, heightening detection risks amid escalating naval capabilities and military exercises.

Despite those constraints, small submarines thrive in shallow waters thanks to their stealth, agility and ability to merge with seabed clutter, says Liborio Palombella in a June 2024 Naval Review article.

Palombella states that the reduced size of these submarines results in quieter acoustic signatures, allowing them to evade sonar detection while enabling close navigation to the ocean floor and improved maneuverability in narrow waters.

He mentions that this stealth and agility offer a considerable tactical advantage over larger conventional submarines, which find operating effectively in environments such as the Taiwan Strait challenging.

Further, small submarines may cost less to build than larger models, increasing the number of undersea threats without the cost of larger vessels. China’s massive shipbuilding base lends itself to the maxim that “quantity has a quality of its own.”

Sarah Kirchberger, in a September 2023 China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) report, says that China’s submarine industrial base has significantly modernized, enabling larger-scale production of conventional submarines, particularly at the Wuchang and Jiangnan shipyards.

Kirchberger says China’s investments in modular construction, advanced shipyard expansions and integration of military-civil fusion strategies have enhanced output.

However, she notes that weaknesses in propulsion systems and submarine quieting remain, limiting China’s ability to match Western and Russian designs. However, she notes that closer ties with Russia may help China bridge these gaps.

China’s new small submarine, along with its larger conventional and nuclear-powered ones, may play a critical role in a possible blockade of Taiwan to starve the self-governing island into submission.

In an August 2024 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Bonny Lin and other writers mention that China could use submarines to blockade Taiwan by deploying them to lay sea mines at the entrances of Taiwan’s major ports, disrupting maritime traffic.

Further, Marek Jestrab mentions in a December 2023 Atlantic Council paper that to make a warning, Chinese submarines could covertly attack Taiwanese-owned merchant vessels sailing through the South China Sea and then deny involvement in the attack.

Such an action, Jestrab says, could swiftly sink the target and instill fear in the shipping industry due to potential losses and risks.

However, China’s rapid submarine production may lack the rigorous quality assurance standards of the US Navy’s SUBSAFE program, raising concerns about reliability and survivability.

The US Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2024 China Military Report mentions that despite the ongoing retirement of older hulls, China’s submarine force is expected to grow by 65 units in 2025 and 80 units in 2035, thanks to a massive increase in construction capacity.

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This issue was underscored by reports of a possible pier-side sinking of a Type 041 nuclear-powered submarine in June 2024, highlighting potential design, construction or maintenance flaws.

The same concerns may extend to China’s mass production of small, conventionally powered submarines, which, though produced in large numbers, may suffer from similar oversight gaps.

Moreover, China still has to account for Taiwan’s ASW capabilities. For maritime domain awareness (MDA), Ian Easton and Randall Schriver mention in a December 2014 report for Project 2049 that Taiwan is believed to have a network of seabed sonar listening posts co-developed with the US.

Easton and Schriver say these posts are similar to the US SOSUS system, covering Taiwan’s northeast coast up to the Senkaku Islands and its southern coast up to the Bashi Channel to the Philippines.

According to them, these underwater sensors are linked to the US Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) for tracking ship and submarine movements through the First Island Chain.

Taiwan is also building an ASW fleet, with plans for six ASW frigates and an indigenous submarine force. Its first submarine, the ROCS Hai Kun, is undergoing testing and seven units will be built. 

As China ramps up the construction of stealthy new mini-submarines, the real test isn’t just numbers—it’s whether these vessels can evade Taiwan’s defenses and the US’ ASW capabilities and survive the fast-evolving realities of modern undersea warfare.

MT Anderson (@mtanderson.bsky.social) — Bluesky

[백선호]

사람이 탄 잠수함에 sail이 있는 이유는 사람이 있기 때문일까요? 사람 탄 잠수함에서 sail을 없애지 않는 이유가 궁금하네요.

[위종민]

https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/submarine-cutaway

잠수함 측면 cutaway 사진들을 보면 거주구는 아니고 잠망경 포함 센서류 수납부로 쓰이는 것 같은데 이건 딴 데 넣어도 될 것 같고 유체역학적 이유가 있는 건지..