(Mar 10, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Mar 10, 2019) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

안녕하세요?

- 지난주 세계경제 침체 징후가 다수 나타났습니다. 미국의 2월 고용 저조(1년내 최저), 중국의 2월 수출 부진(3년내 최저), 독일의 1월 공장 주문 저조(9개월내 최저), Eurozone경제 성장률 둔화 등입니다.

- SpaceX사의 무인 Crew Dragon이 ISS에 5일간 머물면서 임무를 수행한 뒤 지난 금요일(8일) 지구로 무사 귀환하였습니다. 오는 7월 미국 우주인 2명 태우고 ISS 가겠군요.

1. The World Economy Just Had a Rough Week, Bloomberg

- 세계경제가 악화되는 양상입니다. 미국의 2월중 고용이 의외로 단 2만명(1년내 최저)에 그치고, 중국의 2월중 수출은 전월대비 21%나 감소(3년내 최저)하였으며, 독일의 1월중 공장 주문량도 2.6%나 감소(작년 6월후 최저)하였습니다.

최근 각국의 GDP지표가 기대 이하인 가운데, 지난주 OECD가 선진 각국의 경제성장 전망을 추가 하향 조정하였고, ECB는 올해 Eurozone 성장전망을 당초 1.7% ->1.1%로 큰 폭 하향조정. -> 당장은 경기침체(recession) 우려가 적더라도, 경기하강 국면이 장기화될 것이라는 우려가 높아졌음.

이에 따라 최근 각국 정부와 중앙은행들은 경기 부양을 위한 확장적 재정 및 통화 정책으로 방향 전환하는 사례가 늘고 있음

미국 FRB의 경우, 금리인상 분위기가 크게 완화되었고(wait and watch incoming data), 중국 정부의 경우 지난주 부가가치세를 최대 800bn Yuan($119bn) 감면하는 조치를 취하였으며, 유로존 ECB의 경우 지난주 시중은행에 저리의 신규 대출을 도입하고 금리를 2020년까지 인상하지 않겠다고 밝힘

한편 경제지표 악화와 더불어 세계 주요 주식시장은 지난주 대부분 큰 폭 하락.

<생각>

세계경제 downside risk가 높은 지금, 미-중 무역협상과 EU-UK Brexit deal이 조만간 타결되어 Global Economy의 불확실성을 제거해 주기를 기대. 

10년째 오른 미국 주가, 이제 하락하나요? 벌써 미 국채 투자 권유가 나오네요.

1-1. US added only 20,000 jobs last month — fewest since September 2017

- 2월중 미국의 신규 고용이 고작 2만명(2017. 9월이래 최저)에 그쳤습니다. 실업률은 전월대비 0.1%p 하락한 3.8% 였는데 취업 의사 포기자 증가와 지난달 government shutdown후 지연 복귀가 주요인.

2월 고용이 예상(180천명)보다 크게 저조한 원인은 severe weather(올해 snowstorm이 50년내 최고 심했죠)를 드는군요.

전문가들은 작년 이래 open jobs>job seekers 인 상태이고, 3개월 평균 고용이 186천명으로 labor force 신규 전입 숫자보다 많기 때문에 미국의 고용시장은 여전히 견조하다고 평가하네요.

1-2. China's 21% plunge in exports shows weakening global economy, CNN

- 중국의 2월중 수출이 전년 동월대비 21%나 감소하였습니다(3년내 최악). 요인은 크게 2가지로 대미 무역전쟁으로 인한 관세 부과($250bn 대상) 효과가 나타나기 시작했다는 점과 세계경제 침체로 인한 수요의 감소.

중국 정부는 올해 성장목표 6-6.5%를 달성하기 위해 부가가치세 및 공과금 감면 등(2 trillion yuan 절감 효과)의 내수 경기부양 정책을 발표(수출 부진을 내수로 cover하겠다는 뜻).

1-3. European Central Bank acts to boost struggling eurozone, BBC

- Eurozone (19개국)내 경기하강 징후가 속속 들어나는 가운데, 지난 목요일 ECB(European Central Bank)가 경기부양을 위해 올해 말까지 기준금리(현재 0%)를 동결할 뿐 아니라, 시중은행에 대한 신규 저금리 대출을 제공한다고 발표.

한편 ECB는 유로존 경제가 올해 1.1% 성장할 것으로 전망했는데, 당초 전망 1.7%대비 0.6%p 하향 조정한 것. 금리인상도 당초 올 여름까지 하지 않겠다고 했다가, 이번에 올 연말까지 동결하겠다고 밝힘.

<생각>

잘 살던 Eurozone이 점점 어려워 지네요. 작년 4분기 성장률이 0.2%로 추락하더니 금년도 성장 전망도 대폭 하향 조정. 게다가 Brexit문제, 대미 무역분쟁, France의 계속되는 노란 조끼 데모, Italy’s Populism의 확산 우려 등등 난제 수북.

2. Elon Musk's SpaceX capsule splashes down off Florida coast, Reuters

- 전전 주말 International Space Station으로 쏘아 올렸던 SpaceX사의 무인 Capsule(Crew Dragon)이 ISS에 5일간 머문 뒤 지난 금요일(8일) 지구로 귀환 -> 대서양에 무사히 着水하였습니다. 이번 test 비행이 성공함에 따라 SpaceX사는 오는 7월경 우주인 2명을 태우고 ISS행 예정.

Space Shuttle Program이 종료된 2011년 이래, NASA는 ISS에 보내는 우주인을 Russia’s Soyuz rockets을 이용($80 million-per-seat)할 수 밖에 없었는데 앞으로는 자국 민간 우주선을 이용하겠군요.

정견만 드림

1. The World Economy Just Had a Rough Week, Bloomberg

By Simon Kennedy

‎2019‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎9‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎6‎:‎00

• U.S. hiring slowed, Chinese exports and German orders fell
• Pressure on Trump to settle trade war, central banks to ease

The world economy risks remaining weak for a while longer.

On Friday alone, reports showed the slowest U.S. hiring in more than a year, a slump in Chinese exports and an unexpected decline in German factory orders.

With economies already undershooting expectations by the most since 2013 and the OECD slashing its forecasts, worries are mounting that the recent slowdown will last for longer, although recession fears for now remain limited.

The soft patch puts the U.S. and China under pressure to settle their trade war, which has bludgeoned sentiment, and leaves central banks needing to keep monetary policy looser than they were planning into this year.

Such forces may still prove enough to drive a pickup and next week witnesses further health checks ranging from retail sales data in the U.S. to industrial statistics from China and the euro-region.

“The trends in the global economy have certainly concerned markets,’’ said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec in London. “It’s material enough to make a difference to the policy outlook.”

Downgrades Galore

The OECD slashes forecasts for 2019 growth in advanced economies

The week ended with news that U.S. payrolls grew just 20,000 in February, way below the 180,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Deutsche Bank is already warning the U.S. economy could grow less than 1 percent this quarter and the bout of labor market weakness will sew worries about the spending power of consumers. On Monday in Washington, the government will release retail sales data for January, after December witnessed the worst slump in nine years.

Elsewhere, exports from China tumbled almost 21 percent in February, the most in three years, while German factory orders unexpectedly dropped 2.6 percent in January, the most since June.

That was just one day. Manufacturing purchasing manager indexes are in contraction territory in China, Japan and the euro area, where there’s mounting concern that the bloc’s economy and markets risk repeating Japan’s lost decades of growth.

There are caveats. U.S. wage gains were the fastest of the expansion in February, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts salaries in rich nations will start advancing by more than 3 percent this year. Financial conditions have also turned more relaxed after tightening into the end of last year, with the MSCI World Index of stocks up almost 9 percent in 2019.

“There’s a case that as we move through this that growth will pick up in the second half of the year,” said David Hensley, director of global economics at JPMorgan in New York. “There are supports to keep things from getting too weak.”

Much will depend on whether Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can resolve their trade dispute, clearing a fog of uncertainty that’s stopping businesses from investing and hiring. If the U.K. can avoid tumbling out of the European Union without a divorce deal, that would also help.

Trump postponed an increase in tariffs that had been scheduled to be imposed on China this month, but no date has been set for the two leaders to meet and much remains unsettled. Confidence that differences will narrow is one reason Morgan Stanley economists say this quarter will mark the trough of the global slowdown.

Another case for optimism that the worst may soon be over is that some governments and central banks are starting to dole out aid. The problem there is that they will then have less firepower to deploy if growth really falters.

China’s government this week announced a cut to its value-added tax of as much as 800 billion yuan ($119 billion) as it lowered its goal for growth to a range of 6 percent to 6.5 percent for 2019. That’s down from about 6.5 percent last year.

And the European Central Bank became the first of the major central banks to unveil more stimulus in the form of new cheap loans for banks, which came alongside a commitment not to raise interest rates until 2020.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Friday night after he and colleagues recently paused their campaign of interest-rate hikes. New York Fed President John Williams said this week that he and colleagues can afford to “wait” and watch incoming data.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“This is a moment of heightened uncertainty for global growth. A Fed pause, trade truce, and China stimulus are all reasons for optimism. From U.S. jobs to China exports, the most recent data paint a more pessimistic picture. We continue to expect stabilization in the second quarter. Risks to that call are tilted to the downside.”

2. US added only 20,000 jobs last month — fewest since September 2017, CNN

By Lydia DePillis, CNN Business

Updated 1458 GMT (2258 HKT) March 8, 2019

New York (CNN Business) — The US economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, a surprisingly low number that bucked the trend of huge jobs gains in recent months.

That was the fewest jobs gained in a month since September 2017.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, as fewer unemployed people were looking for work. The Labor Department suggested that furloughed workers returning to work after the government shutdown also contributed to the lower unemployment rate.

Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected the economy to add 180,000 jobs, saying that the underlying pace of job growth was strong. So this was a big miss. The past two months were revised only slightly.

The numbers may be a sign that after 101 consecutive months of job growth, the economy is running out of available workers. There have been fewer unemployed people than open jobs since June 2018.

It may also be more troubling evidence of a slowdown, which has been showing up in other economic data. Employers have been rocked in recent months by a volatile stock market, uncertain political environment and weakness overseas.

However, it could also be a snowstorm-related fluke.

This is pretty much a weather story," said Scott Brown, chief economist with the investment banking firm Raymond James. The Labor Department noted that 390,000 people reported they couldn't get to work because of weather, after a relatively mild January. "I wouldn't worry about the payroll figure at all. I don't think it tells us much."

In general, it's never a good idea to read too far into one month of payroll data. The last three months have still averaged 186,000 jobs, well above the number needed to absorb people entering the labor force.

The construction industry lost 31,000 jobs in February, likely due to bad weather. Leisure and hospitality employers added no jobs, after increasing their payrolls by 410,000 over the past year. Manufacturing turned in an anemic month after a year of strong gains. Business and professional services was the one significant category that added jobs.

The brightest spot in February's report was wage growth. Average hourly earnings have been consistently stronger for the last several months, and posted the largest year-over-year percentage gain since 2009, at 3.4%. Some economists worry whether that pace can be sustained.

"The problem is it may be too little, too late. We're now looking for a recession lurking around the corner," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at the brokerage Stifel. Also, she said wage gains are concentrated in a few in-demand professions like information technology and accounting. "We're seeing pockets of wage pressure as opposed to broad-based wage gains."

The number of people working part time for economic reasons plunged by 837,000. That could mean employers brought people on full-time because of the difficulty of finding new employees, although the average workweek declined slightly and many federal workers returned from furlough after the government shutdown.

Analysts speculated that despite strong wage gains, the unexpectedly weak report will reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to hold off on further rate hikes at its meeting in two weeks.

3. China's 21% plunge in exports shows weakening global economy, CNN

By Daniel Shane, CNN Business

Updated 0912 GMT (1712 HKT) March 8, 2019

Hong Kong (CNN Business) China's huge export industry has suffered its worst month in three years, hurt by the trade war with the United States and a slowing global economy.

Chinese exports plunged 21% in February from a year earlier, according to Chinese government data released Friday. It was the weakest monthly performance since February 2016 and far worse than economists had predicted.

The tariffs imposed last year by the US government on about $250 billion of Chinese products are taking a toll. The value of goods shipped to the United States fell much more sharply than for other major markets, according to the data.

"US tariffs have become a more meaningful drag on exports," Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at research firm Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.

But the trade war, which China and the United States are trying to resolve through negotiations, is only part of the problem. The slump in Chinese exports provides "further evidence that global demand is cooling," according to Evans-Pritchard.

Read More

If the two governments "finalize a trade deal soon, the outlook for exports remains gloomy," he said.

February's fall in exports followed an unexpected rebound in January, which analysts put down to companies rushing through orders ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in early February. But even with these distortions taken into account, the performance of exports across the two months was still weak.

Global slowdown

The tough situation is likely to continue in the coming months as demand softens in major markets such as Europe.

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to decline this year. And the European Central Bank alarmed investors on Thursday by warning of "a sizeable reduction in the pace of economic expansion" that's prompting it to keep interest rates at record lows for the foreseeable future and to announce new cheap loans for banks to try to prop up growth.

China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP), plunged 4.4% on Friday. Chinese stocks, which have surged in recent weeks, came under pressure from the disappointing export data, broker downgrades and the gloomy ECB comments.

Chinese exports are also expected to suffer from companies moving their supply chains out of China to avoid the US tariffs.

"The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have already prompted some corporates to hedge against such risks," Raymond Yeung, an economist at investment bank ANZ, wrote in a client note.

That's despite a recent easing in trade tensions. US President Donald Trump said last week that the two sides are "very, very close" to a deal and that he plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a "signing summit."

But the US ambassador to China on Friday downplayed the likelihood of an imminent deal. "A date hasn't been finalized" for a meeting between Trump and Xi, Terry Branstad told The Wall Street Journal.

"Both sides agree that there has to be significant progress, meaning a feeling that they're very close before that happens," he said. "We're not there yet. But we're closer than we've been for a very long time."

Chinese economy under pressure

The grim export numbers are just the latest sign of the problems bearing down on China's economy.

Chinese growth has come under pressure following government efforts to crack down on risky lending, a move that has starved many companies of the funds they needed to expand.

The Chinese government this week predicted economic growth of between 6% and 6.5% in 2019. That's below last year's 6.6% rate of expansion, which was already China's slowest annual growth in three decades.

Beijing has in recent months ramped up its efforts to stabilize the economy. This week, the government announced cuts in taxes and other charges that it said could save businesses nearly 2 trillion yuan ($298 billion) a year.

The growing wave of stimulus measures and any trade deal with the United States should help Chinese economic growth bottom out in the second quarter of the year, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at research firm Oxford Economics.

4. European Central Bank acts to boost struggling eurozone, BBC

• 7 March 2019

Interest rates in the eurozone will not rise until next year at the earliest, the European Central Bank has signalled amid evidence of a slowdown in the 19 countries using the single currency.

The ECB also unveiled a round of fresh stimulus, offering banks cheap loans to try to help revive the economy.

The unexpected moves came as the bank made sharp cuts to its forecasts for both growth and inflation this year.

The announcement sent the euro down by 0.6% against the dollar.

Against the pound, it dropped by 0.1%.

The central bank said rates would remain at their present levels "at least through the end of 2019" rather than its previous guidance of "at least through the summer".

Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, said economic data showed a "sizeable moderation" in growth.

He said economic growth in the euro area was now expected to be 1.1% this year, as against a previous forecast of 1.7%. Inflation is expected to be 1.2%, down from an earlier forecast of 1.6%.

"We are [in] a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty. The near-term growth outlook will be weaker than previously anticipated," Mr Draghi said.

The extent of the measures announced by the ECB underline its concerns over slowing growth in the eurozone.

Its decision to push back on any plans to raise rates anytime soon follows similar moves from central banks around the world, including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Analysis (Andrew Walker, World Service economics correspondent)

The European Central Bank is rolling out the economic artillery again.

A marked slowdown in economic growth - confirmed today in official data as just 0.2% in the final quarter of 2018 - seems to have prompted the bank to take some action.

Not the really big guns, at least at this stage. No cut in interest rates (they are so low already that that might not be realistic anyway) and no revival of quantitative easing.

But the bank is using two tools that do suggest it is becoming more concerned.

One is known as forward guidance, an indication of the likely path of interest rates in the future. They are currently rock bottom and the Bank now says said they are likely to stay that way until the end of the year.

Previously the timescale was through the summer. This guidance is not a promise, but it does tell lenders and borrowers something about when rates most likely to be changed.

The ECB has also announced plans for a new round of what are known as targeted long-term refinancing operations or TLTRO. If you are still conscious after reading that, these are loans made to commercial banks intended to stimulate more lending to households and business.

They are also intended to - as the ECB statement puts it - ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Which means spreading the effect of the low interest rates throughout the eurozone economy.

As well as a slowdown in the eurozone - Italy tipped into recession at the end of last year - Mr Draghi also pointed to the impact of trade wars and other factors.

"The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook are still tilted to the downside, on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in the emerging markets," Mr Draghi said.

The new lending facility for the banking sector will be known as Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations.

Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said the guidance on the next rate rise and the financing for banks was "more accommodative than the markets had anticipated".

"We doubt, however, that the new measures will be enough to reverse the economic slowdown," he said.

5. Elon Musk's SpaceX capsule splashes down off Florida coast, Reuters

Joey Roulette

March 8, 2019 / 10:52 PM / a day ago

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (Reuters) - An unmanned capsule from Elon Musk’s SpaceX splashed into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, successfully completing a mission crucial to NASA’s long-delayed quest to resume human space flight from U.S. soil later this year.

After a six-day mission to the International Space Station, Crew Dragon detached at about 2:30 a.m EST (0730 GMT) and sped back to earth, reaching hypersonic speeds before an 8:45 a.m. EST (1345 GMT) splash-down about 200 miles (320 km) off the Florida coast.

A SpaceX rocket launched the 16-foot-tall (4.9-meter) capsule from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida last Saturday.

“Everything happened just perfectly, right on time the way that we expected it to,” Benjamin Reed, SpaceX’s director of crew mission management, said in a live stream from California.

It was a crucial milestone in the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Commercial Crew Program ahead of SpaceX’s first crewed test flight slated to launch in July with U.S. astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken.

“This really is an American achievement that spans many generations of NASA administrators and over a decade of work,” said current Administrator Jim Bridenstine.

Steve Stich, the crew program’s deputy manager with NASA, said the vehicle was doing well after the splash-down.

The capsule, which was lifted out of the water by a boat using a crane, is due back on land by Sunday. The live stream showed its protective shell had been weathered from intense heat during re-entry.

The mission carried 400 pounds (180 kg) of test equipment to the space station, including a dummy named Ripley outfitted with sensors around its head, neck, and spine to monitor how a flight would feel for a human.

The space station’s three-member crew greeted the capsule last Sunday, with U.S. astronaut Anne McClain and Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques entering Crew Dragon’s cabin to carry out air quality tests and inspections.

NASA has awarded SpaceX and Boeing Co a total of $6.8 billion to build competing rocket and capsule systems to launch astronauts into orbit from American soil, something not possible since the U.S. Space Shuttle was retired from service in 2011.

Results from this mission will determine whether SpaceX can stick to its current 2019 test schedule following previous development delays for the Hawthorne, California-based company and Boeing.

“I don’t think we saw really anything in the mission so far - we’ve got to do the data reviews - that would preclude us from having a crewed mission later this year,” Stich said.

U.S. border fence no deterrent to migrant surge

The launch systems are aimed at ending U.S. reliance on Russian Soyuz rockets for $80 million-per-seat rides to the $100 billion orbital research laboratory, which flies about 250 miles (400 km) above earth.

NASA resumed talks with Russia’s space agency Roscosmos in February seeking two additional Soyuz seats for 2020 to maintain a U.S. presence on the space station.

The short-notice solicitation, posted on Feb. 13, “provides flexibility and back-up capability” as the companies build their rocket-and-capsule launch systems.

Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule is poised to launch its maiden unmanned mission in April ahead of an August test flight carrying U.S. astronauts Michael Fincke, Chris Ferguson and Nicole Mann.

Bridenstine told Reuters the cost per seat on the Boeing or SpaceX systems would be lower than for the shuttle or Soyuz.

Privately owned SpaceX, also known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp, was founded in 2002 by Musk, who is also a co-founder of electric car maker Tesla Inc.

[모러바(volt)]

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