우크라이나는 휴전에 동의했지만 전투가 격화될 수 있다

[위종민]

우크라이나와 미국과의 제다 회담 결과 러시아의 동시 이행을 조건으로 30일간의 휴전에 동의했지만, 휴전 협상이 진행되면 양 측 모두가 자신의 힘을 과시하고 점령지를 조금이라도 더 늘리기 위해 전투가 개선되는 경향이 있기 때문에 우크라이나가 위험한 국면에 접어들었다는 분석입니다. 또한 향후 휴전협상 과정에서 우크라이나가 거부하는 조건을 미국이 일방적으로 받아들여 다시 물자 및 정보지원을 끊어버릴 가능성도 점치네요. 

협상이 타결될만한 의미있는 날로 정교회 부활절인 4월 20일, 베를린 전투에서 독일 제국의회 건물을 점령한 5월 2일, '승리의 날'인 5월 9일을 듭니다. 

Ukraine enters a perilous phase of fighting and talking with no assured end in sight | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Ukraine enters a perilous phase of fighting and talking with no assured end in sight

Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire in principle. But conflicts often intensify when a pause in fighting is being negotiated.

Expert commentPublished 12 March 2025 3 minute READ

Dr Samir Puri

Director, Centre for Global Governance and Security

Ukraine made substantial progress in repairing its ties with the United States in talks this week hosted by Saudi Arabia in Jedda, with the US agreeing to restore its intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine. (President Donald Trump had paused US assistance after his fraught Oval Office meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 28 February).

Now, according to a US–Ukraine joint statement following the Jeddah talks, Ukraine has agreed in principle to an interim 30-day ceasefire – subject to ‘acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation’.

The question is, will the US, having pressured Ukraine to agree to this ceasefire proposal, now pressure Russia to reciprocate? The outlook here is uncertain and Russia’s incentives are mixed: in recent days it has recaptured territory in its Kursk region (occupied by Ukrainian forces since last August) and continued its slow advance in the Donbas region. Moscow may feel this is no time for a ceasefire. Equally, Russia may demand sanctions relief from the US to agree in principle to a halt in fighting – a promise it could later break.

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Ukraine has therefore entered a perilous new phase in which fighting and negotiations take place at the same time. Unless the talks totally collapse, which remains possible, this phase could last some time. Ukraine and its European backers now have to navigate this period in such a way that Ukraine’s interests are not quashed by competing Russian and American pressures.  

There is little muscle memory in this regard. The last time talks to end Russia’s invasion took place was late February and March 2022, just days into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Then, Russian negotiators attempted to impose a ‘victor’s peace’. But Ukraine’s forces successfully defended Kyiv and the talks fell apart.

Three years on things are very different The US is directly involved in the talks, led by a president who apparently desires peace at almost any cost – while Ukrainian and Russian forces are exhausted after three years of high-intensity warfare.

Dealing with the concurrency of fighting and talking

Something commonly seen when fighting and talking occurred concurrently in other wars is an intensification of fighting, often by both sides. The intention is to display their strength and improve their battlefield positions before making concessions along existing frontlines.

The maintenance of a viable negotiation track alongside the fighting marks a new phase of the conflict.

In recent days, this has manifested in massive Russian aerial bombardments of Ukrainian cities often far from the frontlines; in Ukraine’s large drone bombardment of Russia; and in Russia’s aforementioned offensives in Kursk.

The challenge for those involved in negotiations, especially mediators, is to maintain the momentum of talks despite this mutual escalation.

Even if the outcome for these negotiations remains deeply uncertain, the maintenance of a viable negotiation track alongside the fighting marks a new phase of the conflict. Much depends on whether the US offers Russia sufficient inducements to pause the fighting – or exerts sufficient pressure.

How this could unfold

There are forthcoming dates that offer Russia highly symbolic moments to end its war in Ukraine. Orthodox Easter falls on 20 April. On 2 May Russia marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Red Army capturing the German Reichstag building in the battle for Berlin. 9 May marks ‘Victory in Europe’ day. These anniversaries will be lauded by Russian nationalists regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

The risk is that Russia manipulates the diplomatic process to serve as a smokescreen for seeking continued results on the battlefield.

President Vladimir Putin could choose to associate these significant dates with his participation in talks, partly to sell the terms of peace to his domestic audience. 

Wider celebrations could serve as face-saving measures for the war’s unrealized ambitions: the conflict has seen Russia conquer some land, but at enormous cost in Russian lives and equipment, while the war has fallen well short of its initial goals of abrogating Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.

The current proposal of a 30-day ceasefire is intended to buy time for more substantive mediated talks involving Russia and Ukraine. The idea of building momentum behind a peace process is the US aspiration, according to Secretary of State Rubio’s comments in Jeddah.

The risk is that Russia manipulates the diplomatic process to serve as a smokescreen for seeking continued results on the battlefield. Russia has demonstrated precisely this strategic cunning before, launching military offensives in the Donetsk region while negotiations were taking place in Belarus for the Minsk II deal signed in 2015. Moscow also continued unwavering military support for Syria’s Assad regime while talks took place to end Syria’s civil war at the UN in 2016.

Zelenskyy’s reticence for entering into direct talks with Russia reflects his acute awareness of these hazards. It also highlights the risks in Trump’s apparent willingness to take Putin’s words at face value around Russia’s desire to talk.

A window of opportunity to negotiate an end to a bitter, protracted war might only appear briefly, and if it is not seized, it may not appear again for some time.

European support for Ukraine is the vital additional component here. The US–Ukraine joint statement after the Jeddah talks stated ‘the Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process’. As reported in the media, UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell worked with French and German officials and US national security advisor Mike Waltz to fashion the current ceasefire proposal.

Image — US and Ukrainian delegations meet in Saudi Arabia on March 11, 2025 (Photo by SAUL LOEB/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Topics

• Peacekeeping and intervention

Regions

• Russia
• Ukraine
• United States of America

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Article 2nd half

Negotiations during wartime either develop momentum or fizzle out under the pressures of renewed fighting. A window of opportunity to negotiate an end to a bitter, protracted war might only appear briefly, and if it is not seized, it may not appear again for some time.

The World Today

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Huge challenges await regarding Russian compliance and participation versus its past patterns of deception. The viability of a European-led stabilization force deploying to Ukraine is uncertain. It’s also not clear that Russia would agree to it in principle. Regardless, it’s likely that Russia will make sudden demands that throw the whole negotiation process into disarray.

Thinking ahead, if Zelenskyy refuses Russia’s future terms but the US accepts them, there is every possibility that President Trump re-imposes the US pause of security and intelligence assistance to force Zelenskyy to comply.

These cycles of talking while fighting could persist for some time. Even if the prospects of the 30-day ceasefire proposal improve, a putative start-date for the ceasefire could also be some time away and a subject itself for negotiation. US–Ukraine relations have improved for now, but a convincing path to peace is still far from clear.