대만, 중국 침공 시기를 2027년으로 특정

[위종민]

대만 국방부가 화요일 발표한 문서에서 2027년 중국의 대만 침공 가능성이 높다고 평가하며 워게임 결과를 공개했다고 하네요. 

대만 국방부 홈페이지를 잠깐 뒤져봤는데 찾지는 못했습니다. 나중에 또 찾아봐야겠네요. 

올해 한광훈련은 기간을 두 배로 늘려 열흘동안 실시한다고 합니다. 

Taiwan warns of potential 2027 Chinese invasion

Taiwan warns of potential 2027 Chinese invasion

Defense & SecurityNews

ByDylan Malyasov

Mar 19, 2025

Modified date: Mar 19, 2025

File photo by Yang Pan

Taiwan has for the first time officially identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion, highlighting growing concerns over tensions with Beijing.

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry revealed the date in a document released Tuesday, outlining upcoming war games simulating a full-scale attack by the Chinese military.

The annual Han Kuang Exercise, Taiwan’s most extensive live-fire military drills, will double in length this summer to ten days, reflecting the island’s increased focus on military readiness.

According to public documents reviewed by Bloomberg, no previous drills have explicitly specified a date for a potential invasion. Defense Minister Wellington Koo, however, downplayed the significance of the timeline.

“The Han Kuang Exercise always sets a timeline of one to two years in the future because the acquisition of new weapons and training require repeated drills for validation,” Koo told reporters Wednesday, as he prepared to brief lawmakers.

It remains unclear how this designation will alter Taiwan’s military exercises or if the decision is meant as a strategic signal to domestic and international audiences. Jack Chen, director of Formosa Defense Vision, suggested that setting 2027 as a target could pressure Taiwan’s divided legislature, where opposition parties have pushed back against increased military spending. “This could make the opposition parties and the public feel that increasing the military budget is an urgent necessity,” Chen said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has set 2027 as a key milestone for the People’s Liberation Army, seeking to transform it into a “modern military” by then and a “world-class force” by 2047. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that China is preparing to be militarily capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, citing Beijing’s rapid expansion of its fighter aircraft, naval fleet, and missile arsenal since 2020.

Taiwanese officials have previously rejected such assessments, with Koo stating in 2023 that China would not be ready to execute an amphibious assault. Ongoing corruption purges within the upper ranks of the PLA have also raised doubts about the military’s operational effectiveness. The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress in December noted that Beijing’s internal investigations could hinder modernization efforts and weaken confidence in its leadership.

Since President Lai Ching-te took office last May, Beijing has escalated military pressure on Taiwan. China has conducted two large-scale exercises encircling the island and regularly sends warplanes across the Taiwan Strait’s median line. Earlier this week, China held additional drills just days after Lai referred to Beijing as a “hostile foreign force,” a designation never before used by a Taiwanese president.

President Donald Trump has urged Taiwan to increase its defense spending but has avoided explicitly stating whether the U.S. would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion. The stance reflects Washington’s long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan’s defense.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials have hardened their rhetoric. Wang Huning, Beijing’s top official overseeing Taiwan policy, has pushed for what he described as the “inevitable reunification of the motherland.” The Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, recently referred to Lai as a “cornered dog.”

As tensions continue to rise, Taiwan’s decision to name 2027 in its military planning underscores the growing urgency surrounding its defense strategy. With cross-strait relations at a low point, Taiwan appears to be bracing for what it sees as a critical juncture in its long-standing struggle for sovereignty.

[백선호]

1927년 요 https://namu.wiki/w/4.12%20%EC%83%81%ED%95%98%EC%9D%B4%20%EC%BF%A0%EB%8D%B0%ED%83%80 사건에 맞춰서 하려는 것일까요?

[Minowski(김유철)]

일반적으로는 2027년 21차 당대회가 타겟이라고 보는 것 같습니다. 시진핑 4연임 확정하려면 그 정도 공적을 내세우고 싶을거라는..

[위종민]

4연임이건 3연임 후 퇴임이건, 대만 정복으로 등소평을 뛰어넘고 모택동과 맞먹는 위치를 꿈꾸고 있을 것 같긴 합니다.

[ssn688]

'실무'적으로 봐도... 27년이면 트럼프가 친 깽판(...)의 폐해가 두드러져서 미국은 대내/대외적으로 상황이 나쁠 테고, 노후화된 전력의 세대교체가 아직 완료되지 않아서 임전태세도 회복되지 않았겠네요. 문제는 중국 자체의 사정일 터인데, 내수침체/불경기야말로 전쟁으로 돌파!해야 할 상황인가 싶네요. (먼 산)

[위종민]

데이비슨 윈도우 얘기할 때 트럼프 요인을 계산에 넣진 않았을 텐데, 여하튼 2027년이 최적의 시기일 듯 싶습니다.

2026년 6월이 아파트 입주일인데 제발 그 때까지만 어떻게든 ㅜㅜ

[사처포(곽명기)]

왕초보 생각임다.
최근 대만의 국방비/GDP 가 2.5% 정도로 알고 있는데요,
(우리나라가 2.9 ) 이건 자체방어 의지가 있는지 의심스럽습니다.
무얼 믿고 이렇게 돈을 아끼는지 도저이 이해가 안된다는...