https://bityl.co/8G3n (SUBMARINE MATTERS)
파키스탄은 현재 40년 넘은 아고스타70급 2척, 아고스타 90B급 3척을 보유중인데, 현재 90B급 PNS 하즈마와 70급 PNS 하쉬마트 1척씩만 가용합니다. 70급 1척은 디젤발전기 2대 중 한 대가 고장나고 ESM 장비에 문제가 있고, 90B급 1척은 2024년까지 오버홀 예정, 1척은 수리작업이 우한폐렴으로 지연되고 있다고 합니다.
인도는 칼바리급(스콜펜) 3척+3척, 쉬슈마르급(209급) 4척, 신두고쉬(킬로급) 9척, 아리한트급 소형 SSBN 핵잠수함 1+1(INS 아리가트)을 보유중입니다. SSBN 호위를 위한 자국산 SSN 건조를 위해 러시아에서 SSN 한 척을 빌려서 굴리다가 2021년 6월 반납했었고요.
그런데 2023년부터 중국해군의 원급 수출형 잠수함이 인도될 예정이라고 하네요.
현재 중국은 파키스탄의 가장 중요한 동맹국으로 원급 잠수함을 건조중인 것 외에 파키스탄 수역에 원급 SSK를 하거나 파키스탄 수역이나 벵갈 수역에 SSN을 배치해 인도 잠수함들의 음향신호를 수집중일 가능성이 있다고 평가하고 있습니다.
중국이 파키스탄 과다르 항 외에 두 번째 해군기지를 건설하기로 합의했다는 뉴스가 2018년에 실렸었는데 (中, 파키스탄 서남단에 두번째 해외 군사기지 건설 추진 | 연합뉴스 (yna.co.kr) 우한폐렴 사태가 종식되면 이 쪽도 잠잠하진 않을 것 같습니다.
Fewer Pakistani subs operational while India to gain one
India may feel more secure during Pakistan's low submarine availability, but China may be helping make up the difference. Of Pakistan's fleet of 5 (conventional Agosta) submarines Pakistan normally has 3 or 4 potentially available. But now Pakistan only has two available.
Drawing from this article of August 12, 2021:
3 of Pakistan's 5 Agostas are either being upgraded or have defects, making them unavailable.
Currently, only 2 Pakistani submarines are available till the middle of 2022,. These are:
- PNS Hamza an Agosta 90B (with MESMA AIP like the other 2 x 90Bs), and
- PNS Hashmat, a 42 year old Agosta 70 .
In contrast, those unavailable are:
- PNS Hurmat, an Agosta 70, with one of its 2 diesels broken and problems with its Electronic Warfare Support Measures system. This is not surprising as Hurmat is 41 years old.
- PNS Saad, an Agosta 90B submarine is in dry dock, being refitted until 2024. This is an extended period meaning Pakistan must have a very inefficient submarine overhaul system. The overhaul may permit use of Sea Hake torpedos and nuclear tipped Babur 3 cruise missiles, and
- PNS Khalid, another Agosta 90B is being refitted, with COVID-related delays.
China may only start delivering the first of the export variant S20 Yuan-class submarines to Pakistan in 2023-24.
India, in comparison, is better with:
- 3 new Kalvari class Scorpenes and 3 more to follow
- 4 Shishumar class Type 209s, and
- 8 Sindhughosh Kilo class submarines.
India also has:
- the small SSBN INS Arihant, currently armable with 12 small K15 SLBMs or 4 larger K4s in future.
- the one submarine India is gaining, INS Arighat (aka "S3") may be the same size as Arihant or slightly larger. It began harbour trials in 2020, may undertake sea trials later in 2021 and may perhaps be commissioned in late 2022. It may potentially carry 24 x K15s (available now) or 8 larger K4s in future.
What India lacks is any SSNs (may have some locally built in 12 years) which are essential to protect its SSBNs by searching for and countering Chinese SSNs. India did have an apparently unarmed Russian SSN, INS Chakra 2 for crew and maintainer training and technology transfer. Chakra 2 (ex Nerpa) was on 10 year lease and was seen apparently returning to Russia in June 2021.
But, in any case, one SSN is insufficient to protect an Indian SSBN, particularly when that SSBN is making predictable movements leaving or returning to India's current SSBN base at main Naval HQ East, Vishakhapatnam. At least 3 Indian SSNs are needed to counter an enemy SSN. This takes into account one SSN being overhauled, SSN tactics, the Arihant class likely being noisy and overall the Rule of Thirds.
Returning to Pakistan's 2 available subs. China is Pakistan's senior ally and more specifically the ally that is building new submarines forPakistan. China may be currently assisting Pakistan by deploying a Yuan class SSK (in Pakistani waters) and/or even an SSN (in those waters or maybe in the Bay of Bengal). This is while India is lulled into a false sense of security while Pakistan is in submarine deficit. China would dearly love to get a sub close to INS Arihant or Arighat to discern those Indian SSBN's audio signal profiles, other emissions, strategy and tactics.
첫댓글 프랑스가 파키스탄에는 더 이상 잠수함 팔 생각을 안하나 보네용.
2015년에 중국에서 잠수함 8척을 구매한다는 DEFENSE NEWS의 기사엔 프랑스는 기술유출 위험 때문에 수출을 거절했다고 합니다. 파키스탄 쪽에선 인도 눈치 보느라 저러는 거라고 보는 것 같고요. ( https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2015/04/03/pakistan-to-buy-8-submarines-from-china/ )
"France had refused Pakistan's approaches with concerns over transfer of technology as one example."
"Brian Cloughley, previous Australian defense attache to Islamabad, has said France has simply abandoned the Pakistani defense market to focus on the far more lucrative Indian one."
대만만큼은 아니라도 파키스탄도 인도 때문에 무기조달 사정이 꽤 빡빡하네요.
@위종민 그래도 중국 것이라면 J-20같은 것 빼고 다 살 수 있겠죠. 돈이 있다면. 그런데 파키스탄은 이제 중국 무기 살 때 달러 주고 사지는 않겠죠? 중국 위안 꿔서 위안으로 낼라나요? 아니면 물물교환?
@백선호 파키스탄이 나이지리아에 JF-17 팔 때는 달러 받고 판 것 같은데 (3대에 1억 8400만 달러 https://bityl.co/8H2i), 다른 무기조달 뉴스를 찾아봐도 지급조건에 대한 내용은 안 보이네요. 토목공사 같은 경우는 위안 빌려주고 그 위안으로 대금결제하면서 인부들도 죄다 중국인들 썼다고 하던데..