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: Fwd: The Times They Are A Changing . . . . . . . . . .

Here’s one look at the future that's worth pondering.........

 

The Exponential Age?

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of

photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared

and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in

the next 10 years and, most people won't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would probably

never take pictures on film again? (Try to have a proof sheet

made from some old negatives at a camera store.)

 

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.  The first ones only

had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all

exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time,

before it became way superior and became mainstream in

only a few short years. 

 

It will now happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health,

autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing,

agriculture and jobs. 

 

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. 

Welcome to the Exponential  Age .     

 

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next

5 - 10 years.

 

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are

now the biggest taxi company in the world.

 

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world,

although they don't own any properties.

             

Artificial  Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better

in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best

Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

 

In the US, young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM's

Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)

within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy

when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. 

There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

 

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer,  its 4 times more

accurate than human nurses.

 

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize

faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more

intelligent than humans. (NEVER! Albert)

 

Autonomous cars: In  2018 the first self driving cars will appear for

the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be

disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car

with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to

your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the

driven distance and can be productive while driving.

Our great grand kids will never get a driver's license and will never

own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90 - 95% less cars for

that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each  year in car accidents worldwide. 

We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with

autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles

(10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

 

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional

car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a

better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the

revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely

terrified of Tesla.

 

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without

accidents, the insurance will become 100 x cheaper. Their car

insurance business model will disappear.

 

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,

people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

 

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less

noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

 

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production

has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see

the burgeoning impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed

worldwide than fossil.  Energy companies are desperately trying to

limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar

installations, but that can't last.  Technology will take care of that strategy.

 

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.

Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter

(@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only

have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone

can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

 

Health: The Tricorder  X price will be announced this year.

There are companies who will build a medical device (called the

'Tricorder' from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which

takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. 

It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have

access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. (goodbye,

medical establishment).

             

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from

$18,000. to $400. within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 

times faster.

 

All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

 

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. 

The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the

large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

 

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning

possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect

shoe at home.

 

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story

office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced

will be 3D printed.

 

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in,

first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?"

and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

 

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. 

And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed

to failure in the 21st century.

 

Work: 70 - 80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There

will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough

new jobs in such a short time. 

This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.              

 

Agriculture: There will be a  $100. agricultural robot in the future. 

Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of

their field instead of working all day on their fields.

 

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced

veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal

in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. 

Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

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