2천3백달러 골드, 우리가 간다

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2천3백달러 골드, 우리가 간다

케이시 연구에서 우리 중 많은 사람들이 가격 예측을 싫어하고, 확실히 사람들이 특정 날짜와 함께 있지만, 미국 화폐베이스와 금 가격 사이의 상관 관계를 무시하기 힘듬니다.

그 상관 관계는 우리는  1 월 2014 년까지 2천3백달러 금을 볼 수

있다 말합니다.

많은 금과 돈을 다양한 다른 형태의 (신용) 간의 연결을 표시 장기 차트가 있습니다. 하나가 다른 수확량 최대 때까지 능가하는 성능을 대부분 보여줍니다. 하지만 그건 즉, 현재 상황에의 2008 년 히트 금융 위기 이후 미국 금융 기지의 확장을 제로로 만듭니다.

여기 2008년 1월부터 금융 기지의 확장에 비해 금 가격의 실적입니다.

당신은 동향이 매우 유사하다볼수 있습니다. 사실, 상관 계수는 믿을 수 없는0.94입니다.

연방 준비 은행이 선언 이후 "QEternity"가 금전적 기지의 확장이 계속 될 것으로 결론 논리적입니다.이 2014년 1월를 통해 동일한 속도로 증가하면, 금 가격은 그 시점에서 2천3백달러에 도달하는 높은가능성이 있습니다. 그 약 15개월 이내에 30 % 상승입니다.

그리고 연말 2014 년까지, 금은 쉽게 2천5백달러 온스 평균 될 수 있습니다. 현재 가격과비교해서41%위에 있습니다.

일부는이 상관 관계를 계속해야한다고 말하는 건 법이 없다는 주장 할 수 있습니다. 그건 사실이야. 그리고 아마도 연방 준비 은행은 2014까지 인쇄되지 않습니다. 그럴 수 있지.

하지만 돈을 인쇄할거야 그냥 미국 중앙 은행 아니고 ...

• 유럽 중앙 은행 (ECB) 대통령 마리오 Draghi은 유럽 주권 채무의 무제한 수량을 구입할 것이라고 선언했다.

• 일본의 중앙 은행은 80,000,000,000,000엔에 10 조 엔 (126,000,000,000달러)에 의해 현재 구매 프로그램을 확대하고 있습니다.

• 중국, 영국, 그리고 스위스는 모든 대차 대조표에 추가하고 있다

세계의 가장 큰 경제가 크게 자신의 통화를 평가절하 하고있습니다. 이 결과 무료 일수 없습니다. 금과은 직접 수혜자가 될 것입니다 - 같은 광산 회사가 - 상승 가격으로 시작합니다.

금은 2,000 달러에 충돌하고 거기서 멈추지 않고 좋은과 나쁜 모두 다른 결과는 있습니다. 우리는 투자자가 다음을 위해 준비해야 할 것을 생각합니다

• 긴밀한 공급. 가격이 올라가서 더 많은 투자자를 유치으로 덩어리에 손을 받고하는 것은 점점 더 어려워 질 수 있습니다. 배송 지연이 다반사 될 수 있습니다. 충분한 양을 구입하지 않은 사람은 어느 비유적 또는 말그대로, 줄 서서 기다려야 할 것이다.

• 상승 보험료. 꼭 공급 자연 결과는 높은 수수료입니다. 그들은 무한정 현재 수준에서 유지되지 않습니다. 보험료는 이른 2009 년 두 배 더 올랐고, 그리고 실버 이글과 메이플 리프 스에 대한 마크 UPS는무려 100 %를 다가왔다.

• 생산자의 이익을 부기. 지금 금을 생산 평균 온스 당 $ 1,000 여백, 뭐 수입은 1500 달러를 평균 할 때처럼 될까? $ 2,000에서? 금은 운영 비용보다 훨씬 빠르게 증가 할 수 있으므로 발생할 수 있습니다.이 특히 배당 대금, 금 가격 및 / 또는 수입에 연결된 사람들에게 어떻게 작용할 지 상상해 봐.

매니아를위한 • 팁 가리 킵니다. 대중이 시장에 진입 반곡점이 있을 것입니다. 평균 투자가들은 남겨놨다고 원하지 않습니다. 금은 2,000 달러에 도달 할 때 어떻게됩니까? 2500 $?

가능성이 결과에서 메시지가 금을 축적 계속하는 것 또는 지연없이 시작하는 것 입니다. 기다림은 자신의 결과를 해야합니다.

사람들은 죽음과 세금을 제외한 삶의 특정 아무 것도 없다고 말한다. 내보기에서 2천3백달러 금 가까운 초입니다.

$2,300 Gold, Here We Come

While many of us at Casey Research don't like making price predictions, and certainly ones accompanied by a specific date, it's hard to ignore the correlation between the US monetary base and the gold price.

That correlation says we'll see $2,300 gold by January 2014.

There are plenty of long-term charts that show a connection between gold and various other forms of money (and credit). Most show that one outperforms until the other catches up. But let's zero in on our current circumstances, namely the expansion of the US monetary base since the financial crisis hit in 2008.

Here's the performance of the gold price compared to the expansion of the monetary base since January 2008.

You can see the trends are very similar. In fact, the correlation coefficient is an incredible +0.94.

Since the Fed has declared "QEternity," it's logical to conclude that this expansion of the monetary base will continue. If it grows at the same pace through January 2014, there is a high likelihood the gold price will reach $2,300 at that point. That's roughly a 30% rise within 15 months.

And by year-end 2014, gold could easily be averaging $2,500 an ounce. That's 41% above current prices.

Some may argue that there's no law saying this correlation must continue. That's true. And maybe the Fed doesn't print till 2014. That's possible.

But it's not just the US central bank that's printing money…

·       European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has declared that it will buy unlimited quantities of European sovereign debt.

·       Japan's central bank is expanding its current purchase program by around 10 trillion yen ($126 billion) to 80 trillion yen.

·       The Chinese, British, and Swiss are all adding to their balance sheets.

The largest economies of the world are all grossly deval‎‍‍uing their currencies. This will not be consequence-free. Gold and silver will be direct beneficiaries – as will mining companies – starting with rising prices.

There are other consequences, both good and bad, of gold hitting $2,000 and not stopping there. We think investors should be prepared for the following:

·       Tight supply. As the price climbs and attracts more investors, getting your hands on bullion may become increasingly difficult. Delivery delays may become commonplace. Those who haven't purchased a sufficient amount will have to wait in line, either figuratively or literally.

·       Rising premiums. A natural consequence of tight supply is higher commissions. They won't stay at current levels indefinitely. Premiums doubled and more in early 2009, and mark-ups for silver Eagles and Maple Leafs neared a whopping 100%.

·       Swelling profits for the producers. If margins on gold production average $1,000 per ounce now, what will earnings be like when they average $1,500? At $2,000? Gold can rise much faster than operating costs, so this could happen. Imagine what this could do to dividend payouts, especially those tied to the gold price and/or earnings.

·       Tipping point for a mania. There will be an inflection point where the masses enter this market. The average investor won't want to be left behind. Will that happen when gold hits $2,000? $2,500?

The message from these likely outcomes is to continue accumulating gold – or to start without delay. Waiting will have consequences of its own.

People say that there's nothing certain in life except death and taxes. In my view, $2,300 gold is a close second.

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감사합니다.