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미국 시장과 종목에 관한 글이지만, 우리 시장과 종목 등에 미치는 영향이 크기 때문에 알아서 나쁠 것은 없겠습니다.
투자 아이디어를 얻을 수 있으면 더욱 좋구요~^^
Where will the S&P 500 go in 2020?
Here are the most bullish and bearish strategists
Credit Suisse’s Golub ranks as the biggest bull, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson leads the bears
With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday in the rearview mirror and Christmas rapidly approaching, Wall Street investors are turning their attention to 2020 and what the new year will bring for the stock market.
Despite weakness in recent days, the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite index remain on track to post their best calendar-year performances since 2013, with the Dow up 17%, the S&P 23% and the Nasdaq 28%.
And while there are a range of views regarding the performance of U.S. equities in the year to come, the top strategists on Wall Street unanimously agree that next year’s performance will come nowhere near that of 2019, with only one of those surveyed by MarketWatch predicting the S&P 500 to rise 10% next year from Monday’s close, while a few are predicting year-over-year declines in the large-cap index.
Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub is the most bullish on the list, predicting the benchmark S&P 500 index will rise to 3,425 by 2020’s end, a 10% increase from Monday’s close. Golub argued in a recent note that 2020 will bring a sharp rebound in economic performance similar to what was experienced in 2016 going into 2019. He also predicted continued strength in corporate buybacks that will help the forward price-to-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 rise from 18.1 to 18.9 by year’s end. This expansion, along with 5.6% earnings-per-share growth, forms the basis for Golub’s target.
David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs has the second most optimistic target in the sample. He argued in Goldman’s 2020 outlook note that S&P 500 companies will benefit from above-average growth in 2020 and rising profit margins that will boost EPS by 5%, while low interest rates and relatively poor returns in other asset classes like bonds will push the market multiple to 18.6.
Once again, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson is the most bearish strategist surveyed, with a base case that the S&P 500 falls to 3,000 by the end of next year. “Easier monetary policy and trade stabilization will help global growth accelerate, but only stabilize GDP growth in the US at 1.8%, leaving pressure on corporate margins from tight labor markets,” he wrote in a note to clients.
He argued that central bank stimulus may keep stock prices elevated in the near term, “but by April, the liquidity tailwind will fade and the market will focus more on fundamentals, where uncertainty is higher than normal.”
Wilson believes that profit margin headwinds and sluggish U.S. economic growth will keep earnings gains nearly non-existent, as has been the case in 2019, while international trade and policy uncertainty will keep a lid on equity valuations. Better growth prospects abroad “and cheaper valuations means we prefer non-U.S. equities to the U.S.,” he wrote.
UBS’ Francois Trahan also has a target of 3,000 on the S&P 500 for the coming year, driven by what he predicts will be an earnings recession — or two or more consecutive quarters of declines in S&P 500 earnings.
“Directly in front of us, we see S&P 500 forward earnings falling and expect them to remain under pressure for several quarters,” Trahan wrote in a recent 2020 outlook note. He said that earnings declines in small cap stocks are presaging what will happen to large caps as a slowing of economic growth, which began in 2019, continues next year.
(인용: Chris Matthews, 마켓워치)
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2020년 미국주식 유망주
This wealth manager picked a home-run stock in 2019. Here’s what he likes for 2020
The start of December is testing this Teflon stock market. Wall Street’s has had a rough start to the week U.S. President Donald Trump said a China trade deal might have to wait until after the 2020 election.
We best just move on, to the call of the day, from Ross Gerber, president and chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki. Gerber told this column in March that Disney would dominate over Netflix with its new streaming app. Up 37% for the year to date, the entertainment giant has been one of the best S&P 500 performers this year, making his call a smart one.
And for 2020, he’s sticking to that. “I think Disney upside could be another 20% to 25% from here. That’s still our biggest bet by far,” he told MarketWatch.
“I don’t think people fully realize the monopoly Disney created in Hollywood by not just content, but ability to monetize in so many different ways,” said Gerber, whose firm has $1 billion under management.
“So kids watch Frozen 1 on Disney Plus, then see Frozen 2 in the theaters, then buy Frozen dolls, etc., then watch Disney Plus again when Frozen 2 comes to the app,” he said. “So this cycle of movies to theme parks to merchandise to app is amazing.”
Netflix’s problem is that it makes movies for the app and there’s no monetization outside of keeping subscribers happy, he said. Gerber, who owns and likes Netflix stocks, though he’s sold a lot, said the streaming company needs a deal, maybe for movie theaters, so that it can start showing its films outside of the app.
He also likes investment company Blackstone Group for its share distributions and potential upside if the economy is still strong. Another pick is multinational logistics real-estate investment trust Prologis, a global play if the world’s economy continues to improve. Its customers include e-commerce giant Amazon, parcel delivery company FedEx and retailer Walmart WMT.
Gerber remains an unapologetic Tesla fan — the electric car maker’s shares are up 39% in the current quarter. From producing 100,000 Model 3s per quarter to expected success from its Chinese factory and ‘that’ Cybertruck, he sees shares doubling from here.
Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, is “just not scared to try to do something innovative and there’s so few companies that want to do that anymore,” said Gerber.
(인용: Barbara Kollmeyer, 마켓워치)