6주차_국제정치 외교_하성재

[하성재]

The Future of the Global Geoeconomic Order - John Mearsheimer

https://youtu.be/W6TqyEQnFsA?si=LN6nWqv6IuAHoW4Y

번호	영어	한국어
1	APEC	아시아태평양경제협력체
2	Liberal International Order	자유주의 국제질서
3	NATO	북대서양조약기구
4	European Community	유럽공동체
5	Bounded Orders	제한적 질서 (결합적 질서)
6	Comecon	경제상호원조회의 (코메콘)
7	Warsaw Pact	바르샤바 조약 기구
8	Communist International	코민테른 (공산주의 인터내셔널)

The subject on the table today is basically the future of APEC and the future of the global order.

And when we talk about the global order, we're more or less referring to what people call the liberal international order.

And my argument is that the future of APEC and the future of the liberal international order is not very promising.

There's big trouble ahead and the principal reason for that is the shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, and I'll explain more about what I mean by that.

But I want to start off with a number of definitions to begin with, to give you a sense of the big picture, because I think you can only understand where APEC is headed and where the global order is headed if you want by understanding what those terms mean. You know, what is the relationship between APEC and the global order?

APEC is an institution, it's one institution, and an institution is different from an order.

And what exactly do I mean by that?

An institution is a body of rules, rules.

It's very important to understand that that's what institutions are.

They're rules that allow the member states to interact with each other.

They prescribe certain forms of acceptable behavior and they proscribe unacceptable forms of behavior.

That's what an institution is.

APEC is an institution.

NATO is an institution.

An order, on the other hand, is a nest or a group of institutions that fit loosely together that are also designed to manage relations among a group of states.

So APEC is a building block in the global order, in the international order.

So that's what you definitely have to keep in mind.

Now the second thing you want to understand is that great powers create institutions and great powers manage institutions. Countries like the United States, not South Korea, build institutions and they build orders.

Furthermore, you want to keep in mind that institutions and orders can deal with security or economic issues, to put it in rather broad terms.

So to go back to the Cold War, you had NATO and you had the European Community, which became the European Union.

NATO was a security institution, security institution, and the European Community was an economic institution, and I'll talk more about this in a minute, but they were all part of the Western order.

There was a Western order in which NATO and the European Community fit.

Now the next definitional issue, and the last one which you want to pay a lot of attention to, is that there's a distinction between bounded orders and international orders.

An international order includes all of the great powers in the system.

A bounded order only includes one of the great powers.

It does not include all of the other great powers.

Now, you're probably saying to yourself, what exactly is he talking about?

Is this political science speak?

You know, bounded orders, international orders.

I'll make it clear to you by talking about the Cold War, the unipolar moment, and the present.

When I grew up during the Cold War, we had three orders.

Two of them, which were the most important orders, were bounded orders.

The Western Order, which is sometimes mistakenly called an international order, was run by the United States.

It was set up by the United States to wage the Cold War.

It was basically run by the United States.

That Western order included NATO.

It included the World Bank, the IMF, the European Community.

All of those institutions were bundled together in the Western Order, which was initially designed to manage the Cold War.

The Soviet Union, which was the other great power in the system, was not in the Western Order.

The Soviet Union had an order of its own.

It had a bounded order.

That bounded order included Comecon, the Warsaw Pact, and the successor organization to the Communist International.

So these two bounded orders waged the Cold War.

We also had an international order.

That international order included the United Nations because the United States and the Soviet Union were both in that institution.