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[북한에 스며드는 시장경제] [上] 달러·위안貨 거래 급증… GDP의 10% 육박
달러·위안貨 20억달러 유통, 외화 사용해도 제재 안받아
평양의 통일·광복시장엔 일부 상품값 달러로만 표시
북한에 시장경제가 스며들고 있다. 올 4월 재입각한 박봉주 내각 총리가 주도해온 '성과에 따른 분배' 조치는 점차 공장과 농장 등에서 계획경제의 뿌리를 흔들기 시작했다. 달러와 위안화 사용은 급격히 늘었고, 서구(西歐)의 상가를 방불케 하는 매장도 곳곳에 들어섰다. 북한 당국은 시장경제의 확산을 경계하고 있지만 이미 북한이 시장과 '공존'하는 단계에 접어들었다는 분석이 나오고 있다.
4일 북한 사정에 밝은 정부 소식통들에 따르면 "2011년 12월 김정일 국방위원장 사망과 김정은 집권 이후 북한 내 외국 화폐 유통량이
북한의 지난해 GDP(국내총생산) 296억달러의 10%에 육박하고 있다"며 "외화 없이는 북한 경제가 제 기능을 하지 못할 것이라는 우려가 나올
정도"라고 말했다.
황대진 박진희 기자
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Scattered green shoots of a market economy are popping up all over North Korea since Prime Minister Pak Pong-ju, a veteran technocrat who led the North's first tentative economic reforms a decade ago, started trying to resuscitate the country's moribund economy.
One of the measures was allowing farmers to sell a proportion of their own
produce rather than giving everything to the state. As a result there has been a
surge in the amount of U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan in circulation there, while
stores have sprung up modeled after shopping centers in the capitalist
West.
North Korean authorities are wary of the spread of capitalism, but
analysts say the North appears to have entered a phase of uneasy coexistence
with a rudimentary market economy.
Sources say the amount of foreign
currency in circulation since leader Kim Jong-un came to power in late 2011
accounted for 10 percent of the country's 2012 GDP of US$29.6 billion. One
source said the North's economy would not be able to function without foreign
currency.
"North Koreans trust the dollar or yuan more than their own
currency," said Yang Moon-soo at the University of North Korean Studies. "And we
are seeing increased signs of 'dollarization' and 'yuanization.'"
Some
experts compare the trend to the final days of the Soviet Union in the 1980s,
when Russians preferred valuta earned in the black market over the worthless
rouble.
Dollars are widely-used currency in Pyongyang, while the yuan
rules close to the Chinese border. Not only are the currencies used without
restriction, they are also becoming standard payment for goods and services.
"In Pyongyang, fees for private crammers are negotiated in dollars,"
said one North Korean defector. "It costs around $20 to $30 a month for lessons,
but some high-ranking government officials offer $300 to hire doctoral degree
holders to teach computer science or English."
The price tags in Pyongyang's Tongil and Kwangbok open-air markets for glass,
marble, motorcycles and other products are in dollars, and they have money
changers that are capable of identifying fake banknotes. In border regions close
to China, rice, clothes and other daily necessities as well as more expensive
products are priced in yuan.
The Samsung Economic Research Institute
estimates that more than $2 billion worth of dollars and yuan are in circulation
in North Korea. "We estimate around 50 percent of the foreign currency in
circulation is dollars, 40 percent yuan and 10 percent euros," said a government
source here.
North Korea also recently expanded the distribution of mobile phones to get
people to spend dollars that have been hoarded by private households. Phones are
purchased and activated with dollar payments.
Cho Bong-hyun of the IBK
Economic Research Institute said, "Since Kim Jong-un took power, North Korea has
been taking various steps to get people to spend their foreign currency holdings
in markets by stressing the need to develop the country's nuclear weapons and
economy."
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