호주는 더이상 존중받는 중견국이 아니다

[위종민]

ASPI의, 중국의 여러 차례의 도발에 유화적으로 대응하면서, 호주는 더이상 중국에게 존중받는 중견국이 아니며, 중국이 호주를 일주하며 실무장 발사 훈련까지 한 건 당연한 결과라는 글입니다. 

중국에 휘둘리는 호주, 진지한 중견국이 아니다
2026년 1월 20일 | 토머스 브로

공유
이 글 인쇄

진지한 중견국은 경계를 설정한다. 압박을 무한정 흡수하지 않는다. 적대 행위를 오해로 치부하지 않는다. 유화 정책을 국정 운영으로 착각하지 않는다.

호주는 그 반대다.

2025년 초, 중국 해군 기동부대가 호주를 일주했다. 055형 순양함을 포함한 세 척의 군함이 한 달에 걸쳐 호주 대륙을 둘러 약 1만2천 해리를 항해하며 태즈먼해에서 실사격 훈련을 실시했다.

이것이 바로 자신감의 모습이다. 그에 앞서 발생한 사건들은 그 자신감이 어디에서 비롯됐는지를 설명해 준다.

2022년 2월, 중국 해군 함정이 호주 P-8A 포세이돈 해상초계기에 군사용 등급의 레이저를 조사했다. 해당 항공기는 다윈 북쪽, 호주의 배타적 경제수역에서 작전을 수행 중이었다. 영구적인 시력 손상을 일으킬 수 있는 이 레이저는 비행 중 조종석을 향해 조사됐다.

당시 총리였던 스콧 모리슨은 이 사건을 ‘위협 행위’라고 불렀다. 국방부는 ‘우리가 기대하는 기준에 부합하지 않는다’고 밝혔다. 어떠한 비용도 부과되지 않았다. 어떠한 접근도 차단되지 않았다. 사건은 흡수됐다.

세 달 뒤, 중국 J-16 전투기가 남중국해 상공에서 또 다른 호주 P-8을 요격하며 항공기의 비행 경로에 직접 채프를 살포했다. 채프는 엔진으로 흡입됐다. 승무원들은 해당 기동을 위험하다고 평가했다. 국방부는 우려를 표명했다. 중국 외교부는 호주 항공기의 존재를 ‘악의적이고 도발적’이라고 묘사했다. 어느 호주 당국자도 이 표현에 공개적으로 이의를 제기하지 않았다. 사건은 흡수됐다.

2023년 11월, 호주 해군 호위함 HMAS 투움바는 북한에 대한 유엔 제재 집행을 지원하던 중, 일본의 배타적 경제수역 내 국제 해역에서 어망이 프로펠러에 걸린 것을 제거하기 위해 정지했다. 잠수 요원들이 물에 들어갔고, 함정은 무전으로 잠수 작업을 알리고 국제 신호를 표시했다.

중국 구축함 닝보가 접근했다. 투움바는 거리를 유지하라는 경고를 여러 차례 발신했다. 닝보는 이를 인지했다고 응답했다. 그러나 접근을 계속했고, 선체 장착 소나를 가동했다. 고강도 음파가 수중의 잠수 요원들을 강타했다. 승조원들은 즉시 수면으로 올라올 수밖에 없었다. 의료 평가 결과 청력 손상, 어지럼증, 압력파 외상 등이 확인됐다.

국방부는 다음 날 총리실에 이를 통보했다. 공격 이틀 뒤, 앤서니 앨버니지 총리는 샌프란시스코에서 열린 아시아태평양경제협력체(APEC) 정상회의 계기에 시진핑 주석을 만났다. 시 주석에게 이 사건을 제기했는지를 묻는 질문에, 앨버니지는 확인을 거부했다. 그는 소나 공격이 ‘모든 통상적인 경로를 통해’ 제기됐다고 말했고, 군 간 ‘소통 가드레일’의 필요성을 강조하며 긍정적 관여의 중요성을 언급했다.

합법적인 작전을 수행하던 호주 인원들이 고의적인 행위로 부상을 입었다. 총리는 이틀 뒤 중국 국가주석을 만났다. 사건은 흡수됐다.

이 패턴은 계속됐다. 2024년 5월, 중국 J-10 전투기가 유엔 제재 집행 임무 중이던 HMAS 호바트에서 운용되는 MH-60R 시호크 헬리콥터의 비행 경로에 황해 상공에서 플레어를 살포했다. 2025년 2월에는 남중국해 파라셀 군도 인근에서 중국 전투기가 호주 공군 P-8A에서 30미터 떨어진 곳에 플레어를 투하했다. 2025년 10월에는 중국 Su-35가 같은 행동을 했다. 매번 사건은 흡수됐다.

3년간 여섯 차례의 공개 사건: 레이저 조사, 엔진으로 흡입된 채프, 부상을 초래한 소나, 호주 항공기 수 미터 내에 투하된 플레어. 매번 성명 발표, 외교적 항의, 가드레일에 대한 호소가 있었다. 매번 어떠한 비용도 부과되지 않았다. 매번 사건은 흡수됐다.

유화는 학습을 낳는다. 결과 없는 사건 하나하나는 다음 사건 역시 결과 없을 것이라는 신호를 보낸다. 성명은 비용이 아니다. 외교 문서는 억지가 아니다. 적대 행위가 대화 요청으로 대응될 때, 대화는 대응의 상한선이 된다.

호주 일주는 도발이 아니라 확인이었다. 호주 인원을 다치게 하고도 아무런 대가를 치르지 않은 해군이, 태즈먼해에서 무기를 발사하며 호주를 한 바퀴 도는 것이 가능한 지 의심할 이유는 없다. 실제로 그렇게 했다. 그리고 다시 할 것이다.

진지한 중견국은 자국 인원에 대한 공격을 흡수하고 소통 가드레일을 요구하지 않는다. 계산을 바꾸는 비용을 부과한다. 호주는 다른 선택을 해왔다. 유화가 정책이다.

저자
토머스 브로는 서호주 앨버니의 시의원이며, 이전에 호주 육군에서 군의관으로 복무했다.

플레어를 발사하는 P-8A 포세이돈 이미지: 라이언 하웰/국방부.

AI는 이 기사에 어떠한 아이디어도 기여하지 않았다 — 토머스 브로.

Pushed around by China, Australia is not a serious middle power | The Strategist

Pushed around by China, Australia is not a serious middle power | The Strategist

Pushed around by China, Australia is not a serious middle power

20 Jan 2026|Thomas Brough

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Serious middle powers enforce boundaries. They do not absorb pressure indefinitely. They do not treat hostility as misunderstanding. They do not mistake accommodation for statecraft.

Australia does the opposite.

In early 2025, a Chinese navy taskforce circumnavigated Australia. Three warships, including a Type 055 cruiser, sailed more than 12,000 nautical miles around the continent over a month, conducting live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea.

That’s what confidence looks like. The incidents that preceded it explain where that confidence came from.

In February 2022, a Chinese navy vessel directed a military-grade laser at an Australian P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft. The aircraft was operating in Australia’s exclusive economic zone, north of Darwin. The laser, capable of causing permanent eye damage, was aimed at the cockpit during flight operations.

Scott Morrison, then prime minister, called the incident ‘an act of intimidation’. The Department of Defence said it was ‘not in keeping with the standards we expect’. No cost was imposed. No access was withdrawn. The incident was absorbed.

Three months later, a Chinese J-16 fighter intercepted another Australian P-8 over the South China Sea, releasing chaff directly into the aircraft’s flight path. The chaff was ingested by an engine. The crew assessed the manoeuvre as dangerous. Defence expressed concern. China’s foreign ministry described the Australian aircraft’s presence as ‘malicious and provocative’. No Australian official disputed that characterisation publicly. The incident was absorbed.

In November 2023, HMAS Toowoomba stopped in international waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone to clear fishing nets from its propellers. The frigate was supporting the enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea. Divers entered the water. The ship communicated diving operations over radio and displayed international signals.

A Chinese destroyer, Ningbo, approached. Toowoomba issued multiple warnings to maintain distance. Ningbo acknowledged the warnings. It continued to close distance and activated its hull-mounted sonar. High-intensity pulses hit the divers underwater. The crew was forced to surface immediately. Medical assessment confirmed injuries including hearing damage, dizziness and pressure-wave trauma.

Defence notified the prime minister’s department the following day. Two days after the attack, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco. When asked whether he’d raised the incident with Xi, Albanese wouldn’t confirm‎. He said the sonar attack had been raised ‘through all the normal channels’. He called for ‘communication guardrails’ between militaries and emphasised the importance of positive engagement.

Australian personnel conducting lawful operations were injured by a deliberate act. The prime minister met the Chinese president two days later. The incident was absorbed.

The pattern continued. In May 2024, a Chinese J-10 fighter released flares across the path of an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter operating from HMAS Hobart in the Yellow Sea during UN sanctions enforcement. In February 2025, a Chinese fighter dropped flares 30 metres from a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. In October 2025, a Chinese Su-35 did the same thing. Each incident was absorbed.

Six public incidents in three years: laser; chaff ingested into an engine; sonar causing injury; flares dropped within metres of Australian aircraft. Each time: a statement, a diplomatic note, a call for guardrails. Each time, no cost was imposed. Each time, the incident was absorbed.

Accommodation teaches. Each incident without consequence signals that the next incident will also be without consequence. Statements aren’t costs. Diplomatic notes aren’t deterrence. When hostile acts are met with calls for dialogue, dialogue becomes the ceiling of response.

The circumnavigation was confirmation rather than provocation. A navy that has faced no cost for injuring Australian personnel has no reason to doubt it can sail around Australia firing weapons in the Tasman Sea. It did. It will again.

Serious middle powers don’t absorb attacks on their personnel and call for communication guardrails. They impose costs that change calculations. Australia has made a different choice. Accommodation is the policy.

Author

Thomas Brough is a councillor in Albany, Western Australia and previously served as a medical officer in the Australian Army.

Image of a P-8A Poseidon shooting flares: Ryan Howell/Department of Defence.

AI contributed no ideas to this article—Thomas Brough.

[백선호]

중국 함대가 나타났을 때 모의 공격 훈련이라도 했을까요?

[위종민]

해야 했을 것 같은데, 했으면 중국이 반발했지 싶은데 반발했다는 기사가 없으니 안했을 것 같기도.

[백선호]

요런 인증 샷이라도 찍었어야 했는데...