Maximalist Diplomacy in Era of the Biden Administration

[허만]

Maximalist Diplomacy in Dire Need in Era of Biden Administration

Professor Emeritus Heo Mane/ Advisor of the Korea-EU Forum

The international situation has changed in a disorderly way from the Trump to the Biden era amid the intense competition between the U.S. and China. The Biden administration has faced the new China challenge ruled by XI Jinping. New China dreams to return to its old international order, Pax Sinica, that practically disappeared at the end of the 19th century. In the 21st century, its dream goes contrary, in a true sense, to the global cooperation, sometimes crashing into the global values that the free world has long developed.

Recently XI was re-elected as President with the unanimity of the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, with 2,280 delegates attending. The U.S. has not been able to resolve the trade imbalance which has threatened the U.S. economy, eroding the market order in the U.S. The Huawei semiconductor industry has disrupted the American semiconductor market and the international market to a degree, as well. The Biden administration began to press the Korean semiconductor industries not to cooperate with Huawei, and such pressure has reached the other American allies, too. The trade conflict has long continued from the Obama era through to the eras of Trump and Biden. Today it is getting worse and worse.

In the realm of security, the U.S. and China have been confronted with a more

intense conflict with Beijing. Beijing’s challenge is getting deeper and harsher, as its military capacities advance. Over the past 10 years or more, China has developed sophisticated cyber and space capabilities, including ICBMs better than those of the U.S. As a result, an intense competition has occurred between Washington and Beijing. With its second largest standing army, China constructed its naval base around the South China Sea on which Chinese warships have played its naval denial power against all other vessels’ freedom of navigation. It seems that China will claim soon its right to exploit submarine mineral resources around the entire South China Sea.

The country ignored the international rule-based order, by committing human rights abuses in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Uighur. On the other hand, it has continued to threaten the independence and peace of Taiwan. Taiwan has been an independent and sovereign state, over the past 70 years or more, not a subordinate one to China. In his November 16 online talks with Xi, Biden stated that the U.S. will never concede the problem of Taiwanese independence and security. The “One China” policy is the only Chinese claim to itself. Beijing has blamed the U.S. for not having respected the “One China” policy. The U.S. has never endorsed Beijing’s position as part of this policy. Washington has long maintained a firm unofficial relationship with Taiwan. In recent years, Chinese warships have invaded the Taiwan Straits, obstructing the freedom of navigation of U.S. warships, and Chinese sophisticated air fighters have invaded the air defense identification zone. The latest intense conflicts between the U.S. and China are most likely to lead to a new cold war era, if it is not constrained by an effective compromise deal.

Another challenge to the international rules-based order is North Korea. The country has continued to test nuclear weapons and missiles, launching a SLBM in November this year and even testing an ultra-super speed missile in the same month, trembling the environment of peace and security in Northeast Asia. All these tests primarily aim to attack South Korea, while they purport to seek a chance of talks with the U.S. In a word, Pyongyang seems, at the same time, to push the U.S. to ease UNSC resolutions or lift them by demonstrating the power of strategic weapons. This approach is obviously an idea of bluff, not an effective agreement or compromise.

Today given such changes in the international rules-based order, maximalist diplomacy is truly required in the Biden administration. This type of diplomacy is termed diplomacy of global peace and greater cooperation. It should be like a peace watcher which is the very linchpin in the iternational rules-based order.  Relying on the mixture of soft and hard power, this diplomacy is a strong and effective tool to return the new cold war to a normal situation in which the U.S. should play a more positive international intervention policy. It carries in itself a self-reliant capacity to achieve conflict resolution and to create sustainable peace and security. Viewed from this perspective, Biden’s positive intervention effectively capitalizing on maximalist diplomacy is most likely to strike a compromise deal on the Taiwan issue with China. As to the North Korean challenge, Washington and Beijing can then realize the long-dragged denuclearization of North Korea as part of his positive intervention, bringing back a normal situation in Northeast Asia at large. The compromise deal on the issue between Washington and Beijing will drive North Korea to lean to a soft stance, rather than the hitherto stalemated hard stance. As the world knows well, the environment of human rights in North Korea is worse than in other states. It is, however, my opinion that President Biden will play a positive role to form a ‘world democracy alliance’, through which the international rules-based order can vitalize the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, stability, balanced progress, and global cooperation among the major democracies in the free world.

China’s old dream, Pax Sinica will never come true against the dream of a ‘world democracy alliance’ to be pushed forward sooner or later by President Biden. Xi has no other dreams but to hold a stronger grip on his power through the strengthened China Communist Party. The former lacks vitality, while the latter is full of it. The former is a hard socialist state that relies on personal dictatorship, while the latter is a soft democratic state dependent on multilateralism in international relations. In short,  relied on the international rules-based order, not dictatorship, maximalist diplomacy is the very important tool to achieve such values indicated.