That was fast.
어제 내가 이야기했듯이, 일본의 15개 은행 콘소시엄이 새로운 금융기술을 시행하기로 서명했다. 이는 국제 금융거래를 정산하는 방식을 바꾸는 일이다. 이게 아주 거대한 변화였다.
Yesterday I told you how a consortium of 15 Japanese banks had just signed up to implement new financial technology to clear and settle international financial transactions.
This is a huge step.
지금 가장 많은 국제적 금융거래는 미국 은행체제를 통해서 흐르고 있다. 이는 미국정부에 말할수없는 막강한 힘을 주는 것이다... 이는 지난 수년간 미국이 어떤 비굴한 구걸을 하지않아도 되게 만드는 힘이다.
2014년은 오바마정부가 비엔피 파리바 은행에 90억달러의 벌금을 매긴 기가막힌 금권력 과시의 세월이었다.
비엔피파리바는 단지 미국이 싫어하는 나라들과 거래를 했는데, 쿠바와 이란과 거래했고 그결과가 막대한 벌금형이었다. 이것이 프랑스 은행이며, 그런 거래가 프랑스 법에 전혀 위배되지않았는데, 미국측은 말도안되는 징벌을 가했다.
그후 무슨 일이 벌어졌냐고?
미국대통령은 이란과 거래한 은행에게 그런 징벌을 가한지 몇개월후에 자신이 아예 이란과 핵협상을 타결지었고, 또 쿠바에는 친선으로 야구경기를 한다고 직접 날아가서 희희낙락하지 않았던가?
Right now, most international financial transactions must pass through the US banking system’s network of correspondent accounts.
This gives the US government an incredible amount of power… power they haven’t been shy about using over the last several years.
2014 was one of the first major watershed moments when the Obama administration fined French bank BNP Paribas $9 billion for doing business with countries that the US doesn’t like? namely Cuba and Iran.
It didn’t matter that this French bank wasn’t violating any French laws.
Nor did it matter that only months later the President of the United States inked a sweetheart nuclear deal with Iran and flew down to Cuba to attend a baseball game with his new BFFs.
비엔피는 벌금형으로 90억달러를 지불했는데, 그게 미국법을 위반했다고 징벌된 것이다
BNP had to pay up. A French bank paid $9 billion because they violated US law.
And if they didn’t pay, the US government threatened to kick them out of the US banking system.
$9 billion hurt. But being kicked out of the US banking system would have been totally crippling.
Big international banks in particular cannot function if they don’t have access to the US banking system.
As long as the US dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, major banks must able to clear and settle US dollar transactions if they expect to remain in business.
This means having access to the US banking system… the gatekeeper of the US dollar.
비엔피 은행이 미국정부로부터 황당하게도 막대한 징벌을 당하는 꼴을 보면서 나머지 대형은행들은 그들의 목숨도 다음번 차례가 될 수있음을 직감했다.그래서 대책을 세웠는데,
블록체인 기술이 교묘한 해결책이 되었다.
그들은 자금을 미국 금융시스템에 비싼 수수료를 물면서 전송할게 아니라, 블록체인 기술로 은행들이 직접 서로간에 송금을 하는 손쉬운 방법을 택했다. 사실 미국이 강요하는 미국금융시스템 경유 정산방식은 비용도 비싸지만 비효율적인 네트워크이기도 했다.
But having watched BNP Paribas get blackmailed into paying an absurd $9 billion fine to the US government, the rest of the world’s mega-banks knew instantly that their heads could be next ones on the chopping block.
So they started working on contingency plans.
Blockchain technology provided an elegant solution.
Instead of passing funds through the US banking system’s costly and inefficient network of correspondent accounts, blockchain technology provides an easy way for banks to send payments directly to one another.
I cannot understate [Ron; sic] how important this technology is.
그런데 문제는 블록체인은 미국정부가 세계의 금융시스템을 지배하는 것을 무력화시킨데 있다.
오늘 네개의 대형은행들이 새로운 공동사업체를 설립한다고 발표했는데, 그들은 금융거래를 정산하는데 있어서 미국을 경유한 시스템 대신에 블록체인 기술에 입각한 정산프로토콜을 만들어서 사용하는 사업체를 운영하는 것이다.
그 은행은, 독일의 도이치뱅크, 스위스 유비에스, 스페인 산탄터, 뉴욕멜런은행들이다.
이들은 "유틸리티 정산코인"이라는 전자화폐를 통해 상호결제를 정산한다.
Blockchain may very well be what neutralizes the US government’s domination of the global financial system.
And while there’s been a lot of momentum in this direction (hence yesterday’s letter to you), even I’m surprised at how fast it’s moving.
Today, four of the world’s largest banks announced a brand new joint venture to create a new financial settlement protocol built on blockchain technology.
Deutsche Bank from Germany, UBS from Switzerland, Santander from Spain, and Bank of New York Mellon have joined together to launch what they’re naming the very un-sexy “utility settlement coin”.
Like Ripple, Setl, Monetas, and several other competing technologies, Utility Settlement Coin has the potential to end the reliance on the US banking system for cross-border payments and financial transactions.
Banks will be able to send payments to one another directly without having to transit through the Wall Street financial toll plaza.
(Global consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that the cost of clearing and settling international financial transactions at up to $80 billion annually.)
This has enormous implications, especially for US banks.
The Federal Reserve, for example, has already warned that financial technology could pose stability risks to the US financial system.
And they’re right.
If foreign banks are able to transact directly with one another without having to go through the US banking system, then why would they need to park trillions of dollars in the United States?
They wouldn’t.
Adoption of this technology could cause a gigantic vacuum of deposits out of the US banking system.
US banks would take a big hit. And the US government would have far fewer foreign buyers to sell its ever-expanding piles of debt.
Make no mistake, the adoption of this technology is a game-changing development with far-reaching implications. And it’s happening very quickly.
If these mega-banks can hit their milestones, they’ll launch commercially in eighteen months.
Mark it on your calendar? that may be the end of peak US financial dominance.
