[The Economist]Neighbourliness in Asia-Asian countries lend each other a financial hand(11/17)...CMI season starts and one step toward asian union

[길가던행인]

CMI, asian union 이 무엇인지에 대해서 공부해 보시면 도움이 되실겁니다.

 

Neighbourliness in Asia

Nov 17th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

 

Asian countries lend each other a financial hand

On the sidelines of the G20 summit, China, Japan and South Korea on November 14th said they would expedite a joint effort among Asian countries to help each other weather the global financial storm. Their decision to bolster the existing regional currency-swap arrangement was, like the G20 communiqué itself, only an agreement in principle lacking the nitty-gritty details. But the renewed push for the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) by three of Asia's biggest economies means that this brainchild of the regional financial crisis of 1997-98 may at last live up to its promise.

Reeling from a sinking currency and shrinking foreign-exchange reserves, South Korea reached out to China and Japan for concerted action. In Washington, Seoul obtained Beijing's and Tokyo's consent to consider bigger limits for bilateral currency swaps among them. (The current amount between South Korea and Japan is US$13bn, and between South Korea and China is US$3bn.) And the three countries pledged to expand similar co-operation with the ten members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

 

No more faceless international bureaucrats

Under the CMI, launched by ASEAN+3 in May 2000, participating countries can draw on each other's reserves to cover sudden outflows of foreign currency that can seriously destabilise the domestic economy. The idea is that, with closer regional co-operation, Asian countries need not go hat in hand to the IMF or World Bank. During the Asian financial crisis, many Asians felt that they had to sacrifice the independence of their domestic economic policymaking to faceless international bureaucrats.

Indeed, Asian central banks today collectively hold US$3.3trn, or 46%, of the world's international reserves, according to IMF figures. China and Japan alone are sitting on US$2.7trn. Asian economies are also the world's biggest creditors, with the region's central banks holding US$1.3trn, or 48%, of the US government's US$2.7trn in Treasury securities, according to the US Department of Treasury.

But CMI funds remain puny. In May Asian leaders agreed to expand the total from US$6bn to US$80bn, comprising 16 bilateral swaps among eight countries. This is equivalent to only about 2.4% of the region's international reserves. Luckily, no government has yet been forced to tap the CMI. If global economic health continues to deteriorate, however, Asian countries will be glad that they decided to fortify further their financial vaccine now.

The finance ministers of China, Japan and South Korea have proposed to iron out the details of the expanded bilateral currency swaps at a workshop on macroeconomic stability and finance in Tokyo on November 26th. Key issues will include the size of the swaps, activation procedures, and better economic and financial monitoring. Adapting their scheme to a larger multinational setting could follow in early 2009 in consultation with ASEAN members.

 

The Fed's example

Though the CMI remains unproven, government-to-government swap agreements can be a powerful tool to counter market instability. Just ask South Korea, which saw the won's precipitous slide temporarily reverse in early November after the US Federal Reserve said it would extend a US$30bn swap until April 30th 2009. (Singapore also concluded a pre-emptive US$30bn currency-swap agreement with the Fed.)

The G20 gathering also made it clear that this time the world as a whole must prevent a global economic calamity. No country alone is strong enough to ride to the rescue. In fact, this is a moment many in Japan and China have been waiting for. They have been itching to show that their economic diplomacy can match their financial weight in the world. And Asia is the obvious place to translate all the rhetoric into action. Watch the CMI's progress for an early glimpse of the new global economic order.

[황금도끼]

asian union 아시아 연합이라는 큰 그림은 아직 추상화에 불과 합니다. 그리고 유럽연합(EU)와 같은 체제를 갖추기는 불가능 할 것 같고요. CMI가 제대로 기능하려면 중국과 일본간의 헤게모니 싸움이 정리되어야 하는데, 어느 한쪽도 양보할 입장이 아니고, 또 서로 만만하지도 않지요. 아시아 각국간의 역사적 배경 문화적 배경 그리고 다방면에 걸친 수준차등을 단기간에 극복하기는 더욱 요원하고요. 싱가폴에서 맨날 아세안 뉴스를 접하면서 느끼는 것입니다. EU와 같은 그림은 꿈이라 생각됩니다. 독일,프랑스, 영국이 서로 과거사를 이해하고 대승적 차원에서 협력하는 모습을 한,중,일 3국 사이에 기대하기는 어려울것 같지 않습니까