영한_북한_배소윤

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Is the World Underestimating the North Korea Threat?

2024.06.05
https://youtu.be/qsK2AAs_ldk?si=Xiu49ejJ--TYCph6

 
22분 30초 분량의 북한 관련 유튜브 영상을 5분 분량으로 편집한 내용입니다.
 
[글로서리]

Russia’s Security Council veto: 러시아의 안보리 거부권
Three-axis system: 3축 체계
domino effect: 도미노 효과
 

[스크립트] (637단어, 5분 14초)
When North Korean missiles started showing up in Ukraine, it sent shockwaves around the world. Not just because it gave Russia a much-needed boost in munitions, but because it also provided Pyongyang with a chance to test its stockpile in a real-world war. For South Korea, this wasn’t just alarming—it was terrifying. Russia’s use of North Korean weapons wasn’t just about what was happening in Ukraine; it was about what might one day happen on the Korean Peninsula. Every missile that hits its mark in Ukraine is feeding valuable data back to Pyongyang, helping Kim Jong-un refine and improve his arsenal.
 
And it’s not just South Korea that should be worried. With Russia endorsing North Korean weaponry, Kim might decide to shop these arms around to other conflicts, fueling wars across the globe. Remember when the idea of countries scrambling to buy North Korean weapons was a joke? Well, now, what’s good enough for Russia could be good enough for others like Iran. And thanks to Russia’s Security Council veto, the UN can’t do much about it. This is a frighteningly plausible way that North Korea could destabilize multiple regions—not by launching a nuclear attack, but by supplying rogue regimes with weapons that could prolong conflicts and chip away at the international order.
 
And then there’s the nuclear threat. We’ve talked about the possibility of Kim conducting a nuclear test this year, maybe even timing it with the U.S. presidential election. If the U.S. turns inward after the election, just as Kim is ramping up his nuclear ambitions, we could see a dangerous arms race on the Korean Peninsula. Right now, the presence of tens of thousands of American troops in South Korea acts as a deterrent. But what happens if the U.S. decides to pull back, as was suggested during Trump’s previous term? Suddenly, the calculus changes. South Korea might feel the need to go nuclear, which could trigger a domino effect with Japan and others considering the same.
 
So, while a full-scale nuclear war might seem unthinkable, it’s not off the table. Both North and South Korea have military doctrines that rely on massive preemptive strikes. South Korea has the "three-axis" system, which involves attacking the North’s nuclear bases before a conflict even breaks out, while North Korea’s war planning seems to hinge on bold early moves that would neutralize opponents before they can retaliate. If either side hesitates, it could lead to catastrophic consequences, forcing both to go all in from the start.
 
Now, you might ask, "Is Kim Jong-un really that reckless?" Some experts think not. They argue that Kim’s focus is on building up North Korea’s military manufacturing capacity, not on starting a war. He’s supplying Russia with weapons, and if he were preparing to attack South Korea, why would he deplete his own stockpiles? The harsh rhetoric we’ve been hearing might just be a cover to justify these arms deals and to crack down on South Korean culture within North Korea—a way to tighten his grip on power.
 
Economically, things aren’t as dire as they once were for the Kim regime. Thanks to increased trade with Russia and China, North Korea’s economy grew by 0.5% in 2023, the most since the UN imposed tougher sanctions in 2016. Kim might not want to jeopardize this progress by launching a war he knows he’s doomed to lose.
 
So, is the world underestimating the North Korean threat? It’s not a simple yes or no. While many experts believe a full-scale war is unlikely, others aren’t so sure. What is clear, though, is that even with multiple major conflicts happening today, we can’t afford to take our eyes off the Korean Peninsula. This remains a powerful geopolitical flashpoint, one we’ll have to keep an eye on for a long time to come.
 
 

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