The Korean Peninsula trapped into Tragedies

[허만]

The Korean Peninsula Trapped into Long Tragedies -– Need for Independent Nuclear Weapons

Professor Emeritus Mane Heo/Former President of KSCES

I.              Historical Review of the Korean Peninsula

The Korean Peninsula has been long trapped into tragedies. The long-lingering tragedies have been swayed by neighboring big powers such as China, Japan and Russia. The Peninsula was once the colony forcibly imposed by the Imperial Japan.

From the historical review, the Peninsula was the object to have been divided by such big powers surrounding the Peninsula several times.

The first case of division was the plot of division along the Han River by Japan and Qing Dynasty through their secret talks in the 16th century. The century was the period of 1592 to 1598 Japanese Invasions, commonly known as the Imjin War.

The second case was the plot of division of the north of the country for the Tsin China’s orbit and  its south for Japan’s orbit as both big powers were getting into war since 1894. The plot was first proposed by the UK as the notorious Kimberly plan.

The third case was the May 29, 1896 agreement made between Russia’s Emperor Romanov and Japan’s General Yamada in which they agreed to divide the south for Japan’s rule and its north for Russia’s rule for avoidance of war at a time of the regional crisis of the Korean Peninsula.

The fourth case that must be pointed here is the 1885 Tientsin Agreement arranged by Li Hung-chang of Qing Dynasty and Ito Hirobumi of  Imperial Japan. This plot was made through the Tientsin Treaty that allowed both countries to interfere in Korean internal affairs at a time of crisis on the Peninsula, but, in the end, Japan expelled China from the Peninsula by making the 1895 Magwan Treaty. Later Russia involuntarily granted Japan an exclusive dominance over the Peninsula through the 1905 Russo-Japanese Peace Treaty.

In addition to these two treaties, the US and Japan concluded the two secret 1905 Taft-Katsura and 1908 Root-Takahiro Agreements that aimed at  the US’s recognition of Japan’s predominant rule over the Korean Peninsula and in return the former’s safe rule in the Pacific Ocean.  

The fifth case was a territorial division lingeringly burgeoning by the US, the UK and the Soviet Union at the Yalta Conference, although Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill had not practically mentioned the territorial division along the 38th parallel. It is, in any angle, clear that Roosevelt had in mind a trusteeship composed of a US, a Soviet and a Chinese representative. In brief, the three leaders had failed to reach a formal agreement on Korean independence.

 As the Yalta Conference had failed to fulfill the Cairo declaration for independence of the Peninsula, the territorial division lasts untill 21st century.  Moreover, the Moscow Accord did not fulfill its promise for  independence, either because of their strategically different interests in the region. As a result, North Korea under Kim Il-sung initiated the full-fledged attacks on South Korea, with the logistical and military supports of Stalin and Mao Zedong to him.

As the last division effort, the Korean War should be addressed. Kim Il-sung had taken the initiative to plot the war plans and launched the full-scale of attacks on the peaceful and democratic Korea, with full support of Stalin and Mao Zedong. This was the international communist coalition aggression against South Korea which aimed at converting peace into dictatorship, as well as converting democracy into communism. Kim Jong-un still dreams to fulfill such aims.

II.             Needs for Independent Nuclear Weapons.

How can the ROK get out of such continued tragedies around the Peninsula? And with what tools can it overcome the continued nuclear threats from North Korea in particular? South Korea has been facing immediate nuclear attacks especially since 2006, the year of the first nuclear test.  As such, from the geopolitical point of views, the country has been at the crossroads. The only maximum tool for the security and peace of the ROK is the possession of independent nuclear weapons as an independent deterrence to North Korea’s prepared nuclear threats. The country’s security and peace has relied on the US nuclear umbrella since the conclusion of the 1953 ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty and the US extended deterrence strategy. 

However, given this dangerous situation, Koreans are not able to defend their country with free hands.  At a time of necessity, they will not be ready to launch a preemptive strike at maximum speed on North Korea because of the absence of nuclear weapons. North Korea is known as producing both plutonium and uranium bombs. The country has tested the 6th nuclear bombs so far. It proudly has demonstrated its uranium enrichment facilities. Such a strategic imbalance produces a great dangerous situation in Northeast Asia on the whole. Moreover, North Korea has made ultra-modern missiles of short, medium and long range, including cruise missiles and SLBMs. The country has even inter-continent missiles capable of targeting the US mainland. The roguish state is destroying the international law-based order that consequently will surly damage international security and peace.

North Korea was declared a nuclear-missile state. Such a development is surely a great danger to South Korea, the only lawful and legitimate government. It is well known that Kim Jong-un is resolved to hold disarmament talks with a new US Government. For this clear aim, he has recently demonstrated 250 medium-sized missiles aimed at important tactical and strategic facilities of the south, as well as the uranium enrichment factory in the north. He seems to resist, with the backup of Putin and Xi Jin-ping, the operation of Quad in the Indo-Pacific region. South Korea should be resolved to develop Quad operational capability that could restraint the growing North Triangular Coalition. In this sense, the South Triangular Coalition should play more dynamic strategic cooperation against the former. By doing so, this move will maintain the security and peace in Northeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region as well.

Viewed from these developments of the geopolitical situation, South Korea virtually needs to choose the way to making independent nuclear weapons, in accordance with the following procedures.

First, South Korea fallen into eminent nuclear threats of North Korea needs to withdraw from NPT that would exempt the country from observing the obligations of IAEA. Any country can opt-out NPT according to article X (1).  With the withdrawal, the country should declare to use nuclear weapons only for the deterrence to North Korea’s war preparedness and instead for the security and peace in the region.

Second, there is the growing worry that many Koreans doubt whether or not the US may be involved in a nuclear war provoked by North Korea. North Korea already possesses on hand nuclear weapons that it can handle at its disposal free from outside sanctions and interventions.  No any other country can intervene in the nuclear strategy of this country.

Third, The US is worried about the loss or damage of its influence on and its dominance in international politics if the great power uses its nuclear weapons. Once the US use nukes again, it would fall into serious immoral criticisms in the world.

Fourth, holding nukes on hand in the framework of the extended deterrence structure is the only credible deterrence to a potential intervention of China and Russia because consequently this deterrence alone can motivate them to prevent North Korea from using a nuclear preemptive strike so it will then maintain, at most, barely peace of horror in Northeast Asia.

Fourth, holding nukes on hand in the framework of the extended deterrence structure is the only credible deterrence to a potential intervention of China and Russia because consequently this deterrence alone can motivate them to prevent North Korea from using a nuclear preemptive strike so it will then maintain, at most, barely peace of horror in Northeast Asia.

III.              Concluding remarks

Considering the geographic conditions and North Korea’s nuclear challenges, the needs to possess nukes on hand are the imposing demand to the ROK. This is the imposed order to it.