7주차 | 경제·금융·무역_이주현

[이주현]

At the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida

Date: February 04, 2026

Speaker: Governor Lisa D. Cook

Link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260204a.htm

Glossary

1. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index: 개인소비지출(PCE) 물가지수 

Thank you for the kind introduction, and and many thanks to my hosts for the opportunity to speak with you today.

It is wonderful to see firsthand the vibrant and growing South Florida economy.

The Miami region's unemployment rate is below the national average, and consumers in Florida have been among the country's most resilient.

I am happy to have the opportunity to engage with all of you who are central to that dynamism.

I am especially glad to have the chance to update you on my economic outlook shortly after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) first meeting of the year.

As always, I am focused on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices given to us by Congress.

This evening, I will discuss both parts of that mandate and give you my view of how the economy is evolving.

I will then share some thoughts about the apparent disconnect between sentiment and activity readings before discussing implications for monetary policy.

Broadly, I see the U.S. economy as continuing to be resilient, with recent data indicating that growth in the second half of 2025 was even stronger than previously forecast.

Inflation appears to have stalled stubbornly above our 2 percent goal, while at the same time the labor market appears to have stabilized in recent months.

While the overall condition of the economy is solid, I am carefully watching sentiment, delinquencies, and other indicators that show a worsening outlook for low- and moderate-income households.

Allow me to start with inflation.

While some data are delayed because of last year's government shutdown, we have a good sense of inflation's direction.

Based on the latest available data, it is estimated that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending in December, still above our 2 percent target.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was estimated to be 3 percent at the end of last year.

Those readings indicate that progress on inflation essentially stalled in 2025.

I have long discussed how important it is to return inflation to our target. 

Such a plateau is frustrating after seeing significant disinflation in the preceding few years.

To understand why inflation leveled off in 2025, I find it instructive to look at the subcomponents.

The disinflationary trend has continued for housing services, an expected outcome as cooling new tenant rents flow through to overall shelter prices.

Inflation for nonhousing services has also eased, consistent with a less tight labor market.