7주차｜경제·금융·무역_이상은_Adapting the IMF to a Changing World

[경사로출구]

Title: Adapting the IMF to a Changing World

Remarks at the Atlantic Council by Christian Mumssen, IMF Director of Strategy, Policy and Review

Date: July 15, 2026

*도입부 생략

https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/15/sp071526-adapting-the-imf-to-a-changing-world

단어 수: 721

[Glossary]

1. policy buffers have been eroded → 정책 완충력이 약화되다
2. balance of payments → 국제수지
3. non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) → 비은행 금융기관

[Script]

So the central question I want to address today is this: how can countries, and how can the Fund, promote stability and growth—and remain agile—in a world that is fragmenting and changing this fast?

I would offer four broad principles.

First, preserve macroeconomic stability. We cannot say with certainty what the world will look like in the future. But it is safe to assume that the basic rules of economics will continue to hold: stability is a precondition for prosperity. When an economy is unbalanced or unstable, private investment and growth suffer. 

That is why governments—and the Fund—must continue to pay close attention to sound public finances and debt, to inflation, to growth and jobs, to external balances, and to financial stability. 

This is particularly important in a world where policy buffers have been eroded. Fiscal deficits remain about 1.5 percentage points of GDP above pre-COVID levels; global public debt is projected to reach 100 percent of GDP by 2029, and debt service has climbed alongside higher interest rates. For the median low-income country, interest payments on public debt doubled over the last decade.

Recent shocks have shown that price stability cannot be taken for granted amid more frequent supply disruptions, and policymakers must pay greater attention to external sustainability. Large and rising imbalances both in surplus and deficit countries will need to be addressed to avoid disorderly adjustment. 

Responding to future shocks means being prudent and targeted—there are limits to what fiscal and monetary policy alone can do to offset shocks or to accommodate deep structural shifts.

Second, enhance resilience. Recent supply shocks and geopolitical tensions have brought economic security to the forefront. 

Trade relationships are shifting: between 2023 and 2025, we counted more than 10,000 trade-distorting industrial policy interventions worldwide. Wars have disrupted energy supplies. 

Countries are responding by securing supply chains, diversifying economic relationships, and strengthening energy security. 

Another critical question is how to ensure a robust international monetary system in an era of financial innovation. The growth of non-bank financial institutions and the rise of digital finance create opportunities for greater efficiency, but they also introduce new channels of shock transmission and new sources of risk. Adequate regulation, supervision, and risk monitoring will remain essential. 

The good news is that countries tend to learn from crises, which helps them navigate the next shock better.

Third, manage uncertainty. In an uncertain world, projecting growth, employment, inflation, fiscal balances, and interest rates becomes ever harder. 

During the recent Spring Meetings, I chaired a panel on whether we need to rethink fiscal and monetary policy frameworks in a more shock-prone world. 

There are no easy answers, but three things are clear: first, agility and adaptability are key to managing shocks and structural change. Second, policy credibility matters more than ever: when shocks throw an economy off course, it is critical to preserve a credible medium-term fiscal framework and a firm commitment to price stability. And third, we need to think in terms of scenarios, plan for contingencies, and respond with agility when the unexpected arrives.

Fourth, enable the private sector.Government has an indispensable role: providing public goods, adequate social protection, as well as creating a stable enabling environment for private activity. Today, the key is to embrace innovation. 

Technology, if well managed, can raise productivity growth, possibly offsetting the negative impact from other shocks and structural shifts. 

Digital finance is clearly here to stay. And AI could prove as consequential as the Industrial Revolution—with profound implications for growth, employment, income and wealth distributions, and geopolitics. 

But countries also need to pay close attention to the macro-financial impacts of these transformations, and to ensure that the benefits translate into inclusive growth.

So how is the IMF preparing for this changing world?

We have embarked on a comprehensive update and upgrade of our toolkit and policies, so we can better help our members navigate a shock-prone and transforming global economy. We are taking a broad view, focusing on five priorities: managing shocks and uncertainty and building resilient policy frameworks; reducing external imbalances; identifying and addressing debt risks; guarding financial stability amid rapid financial innovation; and tailoring financial support to countries facing balance of payments challenges.

Let me share a few examples from the five major reviews we are undertaking this year—and I am happy to elaborate during the Q&A.