홍해 봉쇄를 풀기 위한 사우디의 후티 공격

[위종민]

사우디가 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 대체항로인 홍해의 봉쇄를 풀기 위해 후티 반군을 두들려고 하네요

사우디, 홍해 봉쇄 돌파 위해 후티 공격 계획

티무르 아자리, 무바셰르 부하리 | 로이터

2026년 10월 3일 토요일

2026년 9월 18일 예멘 사나에서 후티 지지자들이 홍해 연안을 따라 후티군이 거둔 진전을 축하하기 위해 집회를 열고 있다. 사진: Adel Al Khader/Reuters

사우디아라비아는 예멘의 이란 지원 후티 무장세력에 대한 공세를 계획하고 있으며, 홍해 해운로를 확보하기 위한 해안 진격이나 여러 전선에서의 공격을 포함한 방안들이 검토되고 있다고 지역 및 서방 당국자들이 로이터에 말했다.

준비 상황을 알고 있는 6명에 따르면, 향후 몇 주 안에 시작될 것으로 예상되는 이번 작전은 리야드의 지휘를 받는 예멘군이 지상작전을 주도하고 사우디의 공습이 이를 지원하게 된다.

미국은 이미 예멘에서 리야드의 작전을 지원하기 위한 정보를 제공하고 있고 일부 역내 및 유럽 국가들은 주로 방어 목적의 군사지원을 사우디에 제공하고 있지만, 안보 사안을 논의하기 위해 익명을 요구한 이들은 사우디의 동맹국들이 전투작전에 직접 참여하지는 않을 것으로 예상된다고 말했다.

사우디아라비아는 후티가 수도 사나에서 몰아낸 국제적으로 인정받는 정부를 지원하기 위해 2015년 아랍연합군을 이끌고 이웃 예멘의 내전에 개입했다. 교전 당사자들이 2022년 합의한 휴전은 대체로 올해까지 유지됐지만, 이란 전쟁의 여파로 후티가 사우디 선박과 석유 인프라에 미사일과 드론 공격을 가하면서 상황이 달라졌다.

이전에 보도되지 않았던 사우디의 계획된 공세에서 핵심 목표 가운데 하나는 후티가 지난달 해안을 따라 남하해 바브엘만데브 해협을 장악하면서 거둔 급속한 진전을 되돌리는 것이라고, 걸프 및 예멘 당국자들과 서방 외교관들을 포함해 계획을 알고 있는 사람들이 말했다.

걸프 및 예멘 당국자들에 따르면 사우디는 두 가지 공격 방안을 검토하고 있다. 하나는 바브엘만데브 주변에 집중한 제한적인 공격이고, 다른 하나는 알바이다, 마리브, 타이즈, 알자우프 등 예멘 여러 주의 다수 전선에서 동시 공격을 포함하는 더 광범위한 공세다.

공세 규모에 따라 10만 명이 넘는 예멘 병력이 동원될 수 있다고 당국자들은 모두 말했다.

사우디와 예멘 정부, 후티, 미군 대변인들은 사우디의 계획에 관한 논평 요청에 즉각 응답하지 않았다.

바브엘만데브는 홍해의 남쪽 출구로, 지중해와 아시아를 잇는 핵심 해운로다. 올해 이란 분쟁으로 사실상 폐쇄된 호르무즈 해협의 대안이 되면서 그 중요성은 더욱 커졌다.

서방 외교관들과 한 걸프 당국자는 후티가 바브엘만데브를 장악해 상당한 세계적 영향력을 확보하고 있는 동안에는 리야드가 후티와 새로운 예멘 평화협상에 들어갈 수 없다는 결론을 내렸다고 말했다.

사우디의 준비 상황을 알고 있는 6명은 공세 개시 시점에 대해 정확한 날짜를 제시하지 못했다. 이들의 전망은 일주일 이내에서부터 11월 초 미국 중간선거 이후까지 다양했다.

전 사우디 주재 미국대사 마이클 래트니는 공세가 제한적인 목표에 집중될 것이며, 무장세력을 완전히 격퇴하려 했던 2015년 사우디 주도 작전보다는 분명히 훨씬 제한적인 규모일 것으로 예상한다고 말했다.

“그들이 후티를 완전히 격퇴하고 싶어 하는 만큼, 후티가 바브엘만데브 일대 영토를 장악하기 전의 원상태로 돌아갈 필요도 있습니다.” 그는 덧붙였다. “이상적으로는 해안지역을 탈환하고 정상적인 해상교통을 회복하기 위한 상당히 제한적인 작전이 될 것입니다.”

후티는 지난 3년간 이스라엘이 레바논의 헤즈볼라를 약화시킨 이후 중동에서 이란의 가장 강력한 동맹세력으로 부상했다.

사우디가 지휘하는 후티 공세는 2023년 10월 7일 하마스 주도의 이스라엘 공격과 이후의 미국·이스라엘 대이란 전쟁 이후 분쟁에 휩싸여온 지역에서 새로운 격전지가 생기는 것을 의미한다.

트럼프, 튀르키예, 파키스탄

사우디아라비아의 가장 강력한 동맹국인 미국은 예멘에서 사우디의 공중작전을 지원하기 위해 군사고문과 표적정보를 포함한 정보를 제공하고 있다고 서방 외교관 한 명이 말했다.

그러나 지원 범위는 제한적일 수 있다. 로이터는 앞서 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 사우디의 실질적 통치자인 무함마드 빈 살만의 공습 등 직접적인 군사지원 요청을 거절했다고 보도한 바 있다.

사우디아라비아가 지난달 공동방위협정을 체결한 튀르키예와 파키스탄은 사우디가 예멘에서 사용하고 있는 군사장비를 제공했다고 파키스탄 및 역내 당국자들이 말했다.

한 파키스탄 정부 당국자는 지난달 파키스탄이 방공체계, 경포, 드론, 대드론체계 등을 포함한 장비를 실은 화물기 4대를 사우디의 지원을 받는 예멘 정부의 소재지인 아덴으로 보냈다고 말했다.

두 번째 파키스탄 당국자와 걸프 당국자, 서방 외교관에 따르면 파키스탄 군사고문들도 사우디 측 인사들과 함께 현지에 배치돼 예멘군을 지원하고 있다. 이들은 현재 전쟁 이전 사우디아라비아가 구매한 튀르키예산 드론들도 예멘 상공에 배치됐다고 덧붙였다.

역내 당국자들에 따르면 사우디가 예멘에서 새로운 공세를 시작하면서 가장 우려하는 문제 가운데 하나는 자국의 석유시설과 기타 인프라를 후티의 드론 및 미사일 공격으로부터 어떻게 보호할 것인가 하는 점이며, 리야드는 여러 동맹국에 방어체계 지원을 요청했다.

두 번째 파키스탄 당국자에 따르면 파키스탄은 사우디의 육상 국경 방어와 드론·미사일 요격을 돕기 위해 3만~4만 명의 병력을 사우디아라비아에 배치했다. 이 병력은 지난해부터 여러 차례에 걸쳐 도착했으며 최근 긴장이 고조된 뒤에도 추가 배치가 이뤄졌다. 이 당국자는 이슬라마바드가 전투 임무를 위해 예멘에 병력을 파견하기로 결정한 것은 아니라고 말했다.

파키스탄과 튀르키예 국방부는 리야드에 대한 군사지원과 관련한 논평 요청에 응답하지 않았다.

한편 프랑스는 홍해 항구도시 얀부를 보호하는 데 도움을 주기 위해 사우디아라비아에 방어체계와 병력을 보낼 것이라고 발표했다.

분열된 예멘군

예멘 내부에서 이뤄지는 어떤 지상작전이든 내전 초기 사우디아라비아와 아랍에미리트가 무장시키고 훈련시켰던 서로 다른 예멘 무장세력들의 연합에 의존하게 된다. 당시 분쟁은 피비린내 나는 교착상태에 빠져 있었다.

“많은 반후티 세력은 여전히 규율 잡힌 후티 군사력을 밀어내는 데 필요한 종류의 지속적인 공세를 수행할 수 있도록 조직되거나 준비돼 있지 않습니다. 그리고 후티가 여러 전선에서 동시에 압박을 가하면서 지금 당장 시험대에 오르고 있습니다.” 예멘 분석가 무함마드 알바샤는 말했다.

예멘군은 지난겨울 UAE의 지원을 받는 남부 전투세력이 동부지역 영토를 장악하고 분리독립 계획을 발표하려다 일련의 충돌 끝에 사우디 지원 세력에 패배하면서 더욱 분열됐다.

정부의 사고방식과 가까운 사우디 정치분석가 알리 시하비는 사우디의 어떤 대후티 공세든 그 결과는 지상군이 얼마나 잘 싸우느냐에 달려 있다고 경고했다.

“지금까지의 우선순위는 지상의 진지를 방어하고 전선을 안정시키는 것이었지만, 분명히 공세로 전환할 것입니다.” 그는 말했다. “성공 여부는 현지 병력의 수행 능력에 크게 달려 있습니다.”

Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold

Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold

Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold

By Timour Azhari and Mubasher Bukhari, Reuters

 Saturday, Oct 3, 2026

Houthi supporters rally to celebrate advances by Houthi forces along the Red Sea coastline in Sanaa, Yemen, Sept. 18, 2026. (Adel Al Khader/Reuters)

Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered, including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will be led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.

While the US is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh’s operations in Yemen, and some regional and European nations are providing mainly defensive military aid to the kingdom, the Saudi allies aren’t expected to play a direct role in combat operations, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss security matters.

Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen’s civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war.

A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn’t been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to people with knowledge of the plans who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats.

The Saudis are considering two options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: either a narrowly focused attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said.

Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that’s assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.

Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said.

The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn’t give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants.

“As much [as] they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” he added. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”

The Houthis have become Iran’s most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.

A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel of Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.

TRUMP, TURKEY AND PAKISTAN

Washington, Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats.

However, the extent of support may be limited. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes.

Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.

Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said.

Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added.

One of the kingdom’s key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems.

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom’s land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. Islamabad hasn’t made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, the official said.

The Pakistani and Turkish defense ministries didn’t respond to requests for comment on their military support for Riyadh.

France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port ‌city of Yanbu.

FRACTURED YEMENI FORCES

Any ground operation inside Yemen will rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained at earlier stages of the civil war when the conflict ground to a bloody stalemate.

“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once,” said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha.

Yemeni forces were further fractured last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE tried to take territory in the east and announce secession plans, leading to their defeat by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, cautioned that the outcome of any offensive by the Saudis against the Houthis would depend on how ground forces perform.

“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”

[김유철]

모카까지 밀고 가기는 했나본데 점령은 못했나 보더군요. 역시나 뒷심 부족.. 후티도 이제 홍해 위협 보다는 예멘 정부군과의 공방에 총력을 쏟아야하는 상황으로 변화하는 계기가 된 것 같습니다.

[위종민]

중간선거 이후 이란전쟁이 어떤 식으로든 수습돼야 여기도 정리가 되겠네요.