7주차｜경제·금융·무역_임세원_Remarks by IMF Managing Director (2026)

[임세원]

Cushioning the Middle East War Shock

Speech by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington, DC

연사: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva

일시: April 9, 2026

링크: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/04/09/sp040926-spring-meetings-2026-curtain-raiser

Cushioning the Middle East War Shock

요약: IMF 크리스탈리나 총재가 2026 IMF 세계은행 춘계회의에서 한 세계경제전망에 관한 기조연설. 2026 중동전쟁으로 인하여 세계경제는 큰 공급충격을 겪고 있으며, 이는 세가지 경로를 통해 경제에 영향을 미치고 있음. 현재의 공급충격에 대한 향후 전망과 대안을 제시함.  

(604 단어)편집본

Glossary

1.    Spring Meetings    IMF 세계은행 춘계회의 (공식명칭은 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings)

2.    A negative supply shock   부정적 공급충격

3.    Brent    브렌트유

4.    the Pacific Island nations    태평양 도서국가들

5.    Oil refinery disruptions    정유처리시설 운영차질 (같은 문맥에서 나오는 flow rate은 원유 처리량을 뜻함)

6.    Jet fuel    항공유

7.    Distribution curve    밀도 곡선 (데이터의 분포상태를 선으로 표현한 그래프)

8.    Equity prices    주식가격

Script

Good morning.

A resilient world economy is being tested again by the war in the Middle East. The conflict has caused considerable hardship around the globe. My heart goes out to all people affected by this war and all wars.

When we welcome ministers and central bank governors to our Spring Meetings next week, our focus will be on how best to weather this latest shock and ease the pain on economies and people.

This requires understanding the nature of the shock, the channels through which it affects the economy, the size of the impact, and the policies that can mitigate it.

So what hit us? A supply shock that is large, global, and asymmetric:

• It is large because the world’s daily oil flow cut by some 13 percent, and its LNG flow by some 20 percent;
• It is global because all of us now paying more for energy and with supply chains disrupted across the world;
• And it is asymmetric because its impact depends on proximity to the conflict, whether you are an energy exporter or importer, and your policy space.

As always, a negative supply shock pushes prices up. As a point of reference, Brent jumped from $72 per barrel on the eve of hostilities to a peak of $120. Thankfully, oil prices have fallen, but they remain much higher than before the war—and many countries are paying high premiums for access to precious supplies.

Spare a thought for the Pacific Island nations at the end of a long supply chain, wondering if fuel will still reach them in the wake of such a severe disruption.

The supply interruptions have had—and will for some time continue to have—ripple effects such as:

• Oil refinery disruptions given the need to maintain minimum flow rates.
• Shortages of refined products including diesel and jet fuel, which have disrupted transportation, trade, and tourism in a world more interconnected than ever;

• Food insecurity for another 45 million people given the transport issues—taking the total number of people in hunger to over 360 million—with the problem potentially worsening over time because of higher fertilizer prices;

The second question is: how can this shock play out? Through three main channels:

• First: the price impact and supply shortages. Higher prices for key inputs feed into many consumer goods, lifting inflation. This, coupled with shortages, reduces demand by force.
• Second channel: inflation expectations. These can break anchor and ignite a costly inflation process. Here is the distribution curve of near-term inflation forecasts for the U.S.; notice how the curve has moved to the right, indicating higher short-run inflation expectations. And here is the curve for the euro area; it also moves right, and it widens, indicating higher uncertainty. Fortunately, longer-run expectations have not budged—this is very good and very important.
• Third channel: financial conditions. From a highly supportive starting point, these tightened, in an orderly manner.  Equity prices adjusted; and the dollar appreciated. And now we see some easing.

We have been here before in the 1970s and earlier this decade. We know eventually a significant part of the shock will dissipate, leaving us in a new equilibrium. Supply recovers and demand adjusts. New capacity comes on stream. Energy efficiency rises.

As proof, please recognize how the world has become progressively less energy intensive since the 1980s, which cushions the shock. Renewable energy increased its share, yet oil remains our number one fuel.

As the world responds, it is important that we maintain our collective quest for energy efficiency and energy diversification. Different countries have different paths to energy security, but all must strive for it.