역대 최고를 기록한 10월 호르무즈 해협 선박 공격 건수

[위종민]

2월 말 이란전쟁 개전 이후 10월 발생한 호르무즈 해협 선박 공격 건수가 10월 22일 현재 27건으로 최다를 기록했네요. 중간선거 앞두고 이란이 해협 출구 좀 더 조이는 모양입니다. 공격 와중에도 10월 5일부터 11일까지 104척의 선박이 해협을 통과하기도 했구요. 

# 10월 호르무즈해협 선박 공격 건수, 역대 최고 기록

헤더 몽길리오

2026년 10월 22일 오후 5시 23분

2026년 10월 11일 니카라과 선적 유조선 MT 페트로 돌핀호가 이란의 드론으로 추정되는 공격을 받았다. (사진: 인도 전진선원노조)

뉴욕 — 10월 들어 발생한 선박 공격 건수가 지난 2월 말 이란과 미국 사이에 전쟁이 시작된 이후 최고치를 기록했다.

국제해사기구(IMO)에 따르면 10월 들어 지금까지 상선에 대한 공격은 27건 발생했다. USNI News가 집계한 공격 목록에 따르면 3월에는 상선 공격 22건이 발생했으며, 해상 시추시설 한 곳과 예인선 두 척에 대한 공격도 있었다.

이러한 공격 건수에도 불구하고 선박들은 계속해서 해협을 통과하고 있다. 런던에 본사를 둔 해운 정보업체 로이즈 리스트(Lloyd’s List)의 자료에 따르면 10월 5일부터 11일까지 이란과 연계되지 않은 선박 104척이 해협을 통과했다. 같은 기간에는 12건의 공격이 발생했다. IMO에 따르면 이 가운데 6건은 10월 11일에 발생했다.

통항 선박 수는 전주 126척에서 감소했다. 그러나 로이즈 리스트에 따르면 10월 5일부터 11일까지의 통항량은 여전히 8월의 주간 평균보다 31% 많았다.

공격의 대부분은 이란에 책임이 있지만, 미국 역시 두 단계로 진행된 봉쇄작전의 일환으로 여러 선박을 무력화했다.

워싱턴 근동정책연구소의 선임연구원 노암 레이단은 수요일 뉴욕에서 열린 로이즈 리스트 전망 포럼에서 이란이 특정 선박을 겨냥하고 있는 것은 아니라고 말했다. 그러나 이란은 위험 수준을 높게 유지하기 위해 모든 선박이나 특정 기업을 공격할 필요가 없다고 레이단은 설명했다.

레이단은 “목표는 가능한 한 많은 선박을 공격하고, 남쪽 항로가 매우 안전하지 않은 것처럼 보이게 하며, 위험 수준을 매우 높게 유지하는 것”이라고 말했다.

그녀는 이란이 이러한 목표를 달성하기 위해 선박 한두 척을 공격하고, 다른 선박 한 척에는 무선으로 경고해 회항시키거나, 또 다른 선박을 페르시아만에 머무르게 할 수 있다고 설명했다. 이 모든 행동이 선박들에 대한 위험 수준을 높게 유지한다는 것이다.

2026년 10월 호르무즈해협에서 공격받은 상선의 잔해. (사진: 유럽연합)

레이단은 10월의 공격 건수가 전쟁이 시작된 지 8개월이 지난 지금도 이란이 무엇을 할 수 있는지를 보여주는 증거라고 평가했다.

그녀는 “그리고 나는 이란이 역내에서 발생할 미래의 분쟁에 대비해 자신들이 가진 수단이나 역량의 일부를 아껴두고 있다고 생각한다”고 말했다.

CNA의 해군 분석가 조슈아 탤리스는 포럼에서 이란이 협상력을 확보하기 위해 반드시 핵무기를 보유할 필요는 없다고 말했다. 대신 이란은 호르무즈해협을 협상 수단으로 활용할 수 있다.

그는 호르무즈해협이 핵무기보다 도덕적·사회적 비용이 적은 압박 수단을 이란에 제공하며, 이는 미국과 이란이 이번 전쟁을 통해 깨달은 사실이라고 말했다.

탤리스는 “이제 이 사실을 없었던 일로 되돌릴 방법은 없다”고 말했다.

이란은 페르시아만과 호르무즈해협에서 선박들을 공격함으로써 미국을 상대로 경제전을 벌이고 있으며, 이는 경유와 휘발유 같은 다른 정제 석유제품의 가격을 끌어올린다. 탤리스는 이란이 미국에서 중간선거가 치러진다는 사실을 알고 있으며, 유권자들이 트럼프 행정부에 등을 돌리도록 유도하기 위해 이러한 가격을 높은 수준으로 유지하려 한다고 말했다.

그는 “이란이 하려는 일은 시장의 행동을 변화시키고 비용을 높여 주로 미국에 압박을 가하는 것”이라고 말했다. “미국은 비용에 더욱 민감하게 반응할 것이기 때문이며, 특히 선거를 앞둔 시기에는 더욱 그렇다. 중서부 유권자들이 경유 가격에 상당한 관심을 갖고 있다는 사실이 드러났기 때문이다.”

탤리스는 동일한 양의 석유를 운송한다는 측면에서 호르무즈해협을 대체할 수 있는 항로는 없다고 말했다. 사우디아라비아가 홍해의 항구를 이용하는 송유관으로 운송을 전환하기는 했지만, 후티 반군의 공격 때문에 해당 경로의 사용을 중단해야 했다는 것이다.

탤리스는 송유관도 선박만큼이나 취약할 것이라고 말했다. 그는 저렴한 일회용 공격 드론의 사용이 해상의 선박뿐 아니라 육상 구조물에도 문제를 일으킨다고 지적했다.

탤리스는 “결국 이란이 압박 수준을 너무 높인 나머지 상업 운항업체들의 시장 유인구조 자체를 바꿔놓았다고 생각한다. 이제 그들은 위험을 감수할 의향이 있다”고 말했다. “문제는 이란이 앞으로 얼마나 더 공격해야 하느냐는 것이다.”

미국은 7월 이란 항구를 오가는 선박에 대한 봉쇄를 재개했으며, 군함을 이용해 봉쇄를 위반하는 유조선들을 무력화하고 있다. 미 해군은 또한 이란의 발사체가 상선들을 공격하지 못하도록 보호하기 위해 호르무즈해협 상공에서 방공작전을 수행해왔다.

2026년 5월 20일 제31해병원정대 소속 미 해병대원들이 이란 항구를 향해 항해하면서 미국의 봉쇄를 위반하려 한 것으로 의심되는 이란 선적 상업용 유조선 M/T 셀레스티얼 시호에 승선하고 있다. (미 해병대 사진)

USNI News 함대·해병대 추적 자료에 따르면 미 해군은 이란에 대한 미국의 작전을 지원하기 위해 지난 6개월 동안 아라비아해에 항공모함 2척을 계속 배치해왔다. 또한 해병원정대를 탑승시킨 상륙준비단 한 개가 3월 초부터 중동에 배치돼 있으며, 독립적으로 임무를 수행하는 함정 10여 척 이상도 이 지역에 추가로 투입됐다.

탤리스는 청중들에게 미국이 봉쇄를 무기한 유지할 수 있다고 말했다. 미국이 고려해야 할 것은 당장의 비용이 아니라 중동에서 이처럼 많은 함정을 사용하는 데 따른 장기적인 영향이라는 것이다.

배치기간이 여러 차례 연장된 함정은 모두 귀환한 뒤 더 많은 정비가 필요하며, 이는 정비주기와 해당 함정이 다시 출항할 준비를 마치는 시점에 영향을 미친다. 탤리스는 미국이 중동의 수요를 충족하기 위해 서태평양에서도 함정들을 빼내고 있으며, 이는 향후 발생할 수 있는 분쟁에 영향을 미친다고 말했다.

## 헤더 몽길리오

헤더 몽길리오는 USNI News 기자다. 과학저널리즘 석사학위를 보유하고 있으며, 지역 법원, 범죄, 보건, 군사 문제, 해군사관학교 등을 취재한 경력이 있다.

이메일: hmongilio\@usni.org

시그널: Hmongilio.52

October Marks Highest Number of Strait of Hormuz Attacks - USNI News

October Marks Highest Number of Strait of Hormuz Attacks - USNI News

October Marks Highest Number of Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Heather Mongilio

October 22, 2026 5:23 PM

MT Petro Dolphin, a Nicaragua-flagged tanker, was hit by a suspected Iranian drone on Oct. 11, 2026. Forward Seamen’s Union of India image

NEW YORK — October has had the highest number of ship attacks since the war between Iran and the U.S. began in late February. 

There have been 27 attacks on commercial ships so far in October, according to the International Maritime Organization. There were 22 in March, as well as attacks on an offshore rig and two tugs, according to a list of attacks compiled by USNI News. 

Despite the number of attacks, ships are continuing to sail through the strait. There were 104 non-Iranian-linked vessels that sailed through between Oct. 5-11, during which there were 12 attacks, according to data from London-based maritime intelligence firm Lloyd’s List. Of those, six occurred on Oct. 11, according to the IMO.

Transits did fall, going from 126 the week prior. However, transits between Oct. 5-11 were still 31 percent higher than August’s weekly average, according to Lloyd’s List. 

While Iran is at fault for the majority of attacks, the U.S. has disabled a number of ships as part of its two-part blockade. 

Iran is not going after specific ships, Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told an audience at Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum on Wednesday in New York. But Iran does not have to hit every ship or a specific company to keep the risk high, Raydan said. 

“The aim is to hit as much as they can and make sure that they keep the southern route appear very unsafe and keep the risks very high,” Raydan said. 

To achieve that goal, Iran can hit one or two ships, hail another one and make them turn around or keep another in the Persian Gulf. That all keeps the risks high for vessels, she said. 

Debris from a commercial ship struck in the Strait of Hormuz on October of 2026. European Union image

Raydan said she considers October’s number of attacks as evidence of what Iran can still do eight months into the war. 

“And I believe they are conserving some of their cards or energy for a future conflict in the region,” she said. 

Iran doesn’t need a nuclear weapon to have leverage, Joshua Tallis, a naval analyst with CNA, said during the forum. Instead, Iran can use the Strait of Hormuz as a negotiating tool. 

The strait gives Iran a lever to pull with smaller moral and social costs than a nuclear weapon, and that was something the U.S. and Iran learned as a result of the war, he said. 

“There’s no way of putting that cat back in the bag,” Tallis said. 

Iran is fighting an economic war with the U.S. by attacking ships in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, which drives up the prices of diesel and other refined oil products like gasoline. Iran knows that the US is facing a midterm and the Middle East country wants to keep those prices up in order to ship voters against the Trump administration, Tallis said. 

“What Iran is trying to do is shape market behavior, to drive costs up, to put pressure on – predominantly – the United States because the U.S. is going to be more cost sensitive, particularly in the run to earn election, where it turns out Midwestern voters care a lot about the price of diesel,” he said. 

There are no alternative routes from the Strait of Hormuz in terms of moving the same amount of oil, Tallis said. While Saudi Arabia did shift to a pipeline that uses the Red Sea as a port, Saudi Arabia had to stop using the route due to Houthi attacks. 

The pipelines are going to be just as vulnerable as ships, Tallis said, noting that the use of cheap one-way attack drones pose a problem for land structures as much as they do for vessels on the water. 

“At the end of the day, I think Iran has ratcheted the pressure up so high that it’s actually shifted the entire market incentive for commercial operators. They are now willing to take risks,” Tallis said. “The question is how much more do they need to strike?”

The U.S. reinstated its blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports in July, using warships to disable tankers that violate it. The Navy has also used air defense over the Strait of Hormuz to protect commercial ships from being targeted by Iranian projectiles. 

U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit board M/T Celestial Sea, an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker suspected of attempting to violate the U.S. blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port, May 20, 2026. US Marine Corps photo

To support U.S. operations against Iran, the Navy has maintained a two-carrier presence in the Arabian Sea for six months, according to the USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker. Additionally, an Amphibious Ready Group embarked with a Marine Expeditionary Unit has been on station in the Middle East since early March, and more than a dozen independent deployers have surged to the region. 

The U.S. can continue to hold its blockade indefinitely, Tallis told the audience. For the U.S. it is not the immediate cost that they need to be considering, but rather the long-term effect of using so many ships in the Middle East.

Every ship that has multiple extensions will require more maintenance when it returns, affecting maintenance cycles and when the ship might be ready to sail again. The U.S. is also pulling ships from the western Pacific to meet the needs in the Middle East, which affects potential future conflicts, Tallis said.

Heather Mongilio

Heather Mongilio is a reporter with USNI News. She has a master’s degree in science journalism and has covered local courts, crime, health, military affairs and the Naval Academy.
Email: hmongilio@usni.org
Signal: Hmongilio.52
Follow @hmongilio

[백선호]

미국과 이란이 서로 목조르기를 하고 있는데 중국이 기름을 풀어 압박을 완화하는 모양새네요.