7주차｜경제·금융·무역_조홍진_OECD Economic Outlook launch

[조홍진]

https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/speech-statements/2025/06/oecd-economic-outlook-launch.html

OECD Economic Outlook launch

Date: 3 June 2025

Words: 746

Glossary

1.    OECD Economic Outlook: OECD 경제전망

2.    Bilateral tariff rates 양자간 관세율

3.    Near-term indicators: 단기 (경제) 지표

4.    interim outlook: 중간 전망

5.    retaliatory measures: 보복 조치

6.    subdued external demand: 부진한 대외 수요

7.    cushion: 완충하다

8.    borrowing costs: 차입 비용

Script

Good morning,

Thank you for joining us for this launch of the OECD Economic Outlook.

Through to the end of 2024, the global economy showed real resilience with GDP growth of 3.3% for the year.

But the global economic environment has become significantly more challenging since.

From January to March this year, GDP growth across the OECD area dropped abruptly to 0.1%.

The slowest rate of growth since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic 5 years ago.

Bilateral tariff rates between the United States and its trading partners have risen sharply, with significant consequences for growth and inflation.

Measures of trade policy uncertainty based on media have increased to unprecedented levels.

Near-term indicators point to a weakening of economic activity.

Surveys show declining consumer confidence, with policy uncertainty also undermining business confidence.

Since our last interim outlook, we have revised our projections for global GDP growth downwards.

Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026.

This is down by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and by 0.1 points for 2026, compared to our March Interim Outlook.

Higher trade costs are contributing to renewed inflationary pressures.

We expect inflation in G20 economies over this year and next to decline more slowly and remain higher for longer than previously foreseen in our December 2024 Outlook.

Turning to some country-specific developments.

In the United States, growth is expected to slow.

The main headwinds are lower export growth as a result of retaliatory measures from some trading partners;

The impact of high policy uncertainty; and

A marked slowdown in net immigration.

US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025.

In the euro area, growth is expected to strengthen modestly, from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025.

Improved credit conditions as a result of monetary policy easing and increased investment from EU funds will help offset the impact of pressures on trade.

In Japan, strong wage gains and business investment growth are supporting activity.

Growth is expected to improve and then to moderate to 0.4% in 2026, due to subdued external demand.

Emerging Asia – that is, China, India, Indonesia and other Dynamic Asian Economies – continues to account for more than half of global growth.

Still, the increase in tariffs will weaken growth in China.

While fiscal measures, such as subsidies for consumer goods, help cushion the slowdown, growth is expected to moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025.

There are significant risks to the economic outlook.

The outlook for trade and trade policy is particularly uncertain.

Additional increases in trade barriers, or prolonged policy uncertainty, would further lower growth prospects and likely push inflation higher in countries imposing tariffs.

Our report estimates that, in a scenario in which US bilateral tariffs are raised by an additional 10 percentage points on all countries then, global GDP would be about 0.3% lower after two years.

Canada, Mexico and the United States would be particularly affected, given their close trade integration.

By contrast, measures to reduce trade barriers, reverse tariff increases and address policy uncertainty could lift sentiment, lower trade costs, support growth, and help ease inflationary pressures.

Persistent inflation remains another key risk.

Goods price inflation ticked up at the beginning of the year, primarily due to rising food prices, while service price inflation has remained relatively high.

Inflation expectations by households have moved up in some economies, particularly the United States, likely related to an increase in expected costs for imports.

Higher inflationary pressures would require monetary policy to remain restrictive for longer, raising borrowing costs and slowing economic activity.

The key policy priorities in this environment are:

First, constructive dialogue to ensure a lasting resolution to current trade tensions,

Second, prudent monetary and fiscal policy, and

Third, ambitious structural reforms to reinvigorate longer-term growth.

Our key recommendation is for governments to engage with each other to address issues in the global trading system co-operatively;

To talk the issues through, among market-based democracies and beyond with any partner countries around the world prepared to engage in good conversations about how best to make the global rules based trading system fairer and work better for everyone.

The OECD is a perfect platform for some of those very important multilateral conversations.

And to put some numbers around the opportunity, according to our analysis, a global decline of tariff rates by 1.5 percentage points could boost GDP by 0.2% in G20 advanced economies.