7주차 | 경제·금융·무역_지현경

[지현경]

< Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review >

Speaker: Chair Jerome H. Powell

Date: August 22, 2025

Words: 431

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZdOFw-gTo8

Glossary

1.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) : 연방공개시장위원회

2.    Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy: 연준 장기 통화정책 목표·전략 공식 성명

3.    payroll job growth: 고용 증가(임금 근로자 수 증가, 비농업 부분 고용 증가)

Script

In my remarks today, I will first address the current economic situation and the near-term outlook for monetary policy.

I will then turn to the results of our second public review of our monetary policy framework, as captured in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that we released today.

When I appeared at this podium one year ago, the economy was at an inflection point.

Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year.

That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply.

Inflation had moved much closer to our objective, and the labor market had cooled from its formerly overheated state.

Upside risks to inflation had diminished.

But the unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point, a development that historically has not occurred outside of recessions.

Over the subsequent three Federal Open Market Committee meetings, we recalibrated our policy stance, setting the stage for the labor market to remain in balance near maximum employment over the past year.

This year, the economy has faced new challenges.

Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system.

Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth.

Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity.

There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be.

Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply.

In this environment, distinguishing cyclical developments from trend, or structural, developments is difficult.

This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes.

The labor market is a case in point.

The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month during 2024.

This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago, as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially.

But it does not appear that the slowdown in job growth has opened up a large margin of slack in the labor market—an outcome we want to avoid.

The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands at a historically low level of 4.2 percent and has been broadly stable over the past year.