NO. 1 MARYLAND vs. No. 16 SIENA/ALCORN STATE
Pick Maryland: Because not only are the Terrapins playing the worst team in the tournament, they're playing the game when lucky No. 64 is tired. Like most contenders, Maryland's potent offense masks a stifling defense. In a conference known for offense where every team averaged at least 70 points, Maryland limited the opposition to 39.6 percent shooting. The pace of the game allows for plenty of rebound opportunities for both teams, but Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox and good board work from the guards ensures the Terps maintain a comfortable advantage in rebounding margin.
Unless: If the NCAA allows Siena and Alcorn to pool their resources and play with an extra man ... Maryland still wins by 10. Sure, Princeton scared Georgetown, Fairfield made North Carolina fans nervous and Western Carolina harassed Purdue, but neither Siena nor Alcorn is going to make history.
Our Pick: Maryland
NO. 8 WISCONSIN vs. No. 9 ST. JOHN'S
Pick Wisconsin: Because how many times is the Big 10 champ seeded this low? Of course, Wisconsin shared the title with three other teams and lost early in the conference tournament, but the Badgers didn't use smoke and mirrors to finish 11-5 in a rugged league. Even if you're not sold on the Badgers blend of patience and attention to detail (just 12.9 turnovers a game), why not pick against St. John's? Coach Mike Jarvis' charges are quite possibly the worst shooting team in the field, hitting at a collective 40.1 percent clip. Shooting that poorly is different if a majority of the made shots count for three points, but guard Marcus Hatten is the only St. John's player with more than 30 3-pointers.
Unless: Maybe Wisconsin did use smoke, mirrors and a weak conference to earn their place in the field. Owning just the league's eighth-best scoring margin, they outscore opponents by just 1.6 points, Wisconsin stumbled through the non-conference portion of their schedule with losses to UNLV, Weber State, Hawaii, Georgia Tech, Temple and Xavier. Aside from taking care of the ball, what does Wisconsin do better than St. John's? The Badgers don't rebound well, don't hit a lot of threes and believe it or not, don't play above-average defense. While they still take the air out of the ball often enough to keep games in the 60s, Wisconsin allows opponents to shoot better than 45 percent from the floor.
Our Pick: Wisconsin
NO. 5 MARQUETTE vs. No. 12 TULSA
Pick Marquette: Because Conference USA has more to offer than just the Cincinnati Bearcats. Marquette battled for the league title all season, earning a regular-season split with the Bearcats. Dwayne Wade is poised to make a national splash, and what's not to like about a guy who works the offensive end for 17.8 points a game and takes care of business on defense by averaging 2.5 steals a game? Point guard Cordell Henry is Marquette's secondary weapon, showing an ever-increasing willingness to look for his shot, but the Warriors get contributions from a host of role players.
Unless: Is Wade hitting the wall? Coach Tom Crean doesn't hang Wade out to dry, playing him less than 30 minutes a game, but he hasn't reached the 20-point plateau in nine straight games. That's after hitting for 20-plus points in nine of his first 22 games. And it's tough to place the blame on Henry's newfound willingness to shoot the ball; Wade is averaging 1.8 steals over the same nine-game stretch, down significantly from his season average. What better sign of a potential upset than a slumping star? Tulsa's the decided underdog, but is the Selection Committee underestimating the WAC?
Our Pick: Marquette
NO. 4 KENTUCKY vs. No. 13 VALPARAISO
Pick Kentucky: Because they're right there with Illinois as the best of the four-seeds, and it's not as if Tubby Smith doesn't have experience with this whole postseason concept. Kentucky's big guys don't always rebound with the passion and expertise you might expect, but does anyone do a better job than the Wildcats of rebounding as a team? For Valpo, 7-0 newcomer Antti Nikkila had some solid moments in the Mid-Con tournament, but reliable center Raitis Grafs is going to feel the burden of playing against a frontline that usually includes at least two of Marquis Estill, Jules Camarra and Chuck Hayes. While the Wildcats have played inconsistent basketball, look at their December game against Duke for an example of what happens when they pull together.
Unless: Looking for a legitimate sleeper? Valparaiso continues to earn tough assignments thanks to a mediocre conference, but the Crusaders tried to get in some non-conference preparation. Only a win against Charlotte truly counts as impressive, but losing to Arizona and Kansas by a combined 12 points in one four-day span carries some weight. Both Valpo and Kentucky force a lot of turnovers (around 17 a game), but the Crusaders do a better job of taking care of the ball. Inferior competition? Perhaps, but go back to those games against Arizona and Kansas, and they turned the ball over just 27 times. Kentucky has been forced to frequently alter their rotation, for any number of reasons, and their string of late-season losses suggests continuity has yet to take hold.
Our Pick: Kentucky
NO. 6 TEXAS TECH vs. No. 11 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Pick Texas Tech: Because this isn't Brian Dennehey on the bench. Knight has Tech playing inspired basketball, and it's not a sit-on-the-ball style. To be sure, the emphasis in Lubbock is on defensive responsibility, but only Kansas scores more points than Tech among Big 12 teams. Andre Emmett, Andy Ellis and Kasib Powell form a primary triumvirate that ranks with anyone.
Unless: Is a 40-point loss a sign of vulnerability? Kansas obliterated Tech in the Big-12 tournament, beating the Red Raiders by 27 on the boards and limiting them to 27.5 percent shooting. Southern Illinois isn't Kansas, and may not even be Kansas State, but the blueprint for success against Bob Knight's teams isn't new. An average rebounding team, Tech can be taken out of the game by opponents who keep them off the glass. Guess who ranks second in rebounding margin among MVC teams? Southern Illinois may not have the personnel to score a lot of points in the post, although Rolan Roberts and Jermaine Dearman know their way around the block, but they'll force someone other than Ellis or Powell to crash the boards. That opens running lanes for the Salukis, leading to the 3-point opportunities they crave.
Our Pick: Southern Illinois
NO. 3 GEORGIA vs. No. 14 MURRAY STATE
Pick Georgia: Because an early loss in the SEC Tournament doesn't diminish an otherwise impressive season. Murray State likes to get up and down the court, the Racers always like to get up and down the court, but that's not going to bother a Georgia squad that is perfectly willing to think offense first. Point guard Rashad Wright keys the attack and does a good job of avoiding turnovers while setting up the team's scorers. Outside of Jarvis Williams, Georgia isn't a good 3-point shooting team. They may be able to get away with some mistakes against Murray State, but they're not adept at playing from behind.
Unless: How may third-seeded teams enter the tournament with six losses in their last 11 games? Murray State catches the Bulldogs at a potentially opportune time, assuming the loss to LSU wasn't enough to snap Georgia out of its funk. The Racers clean the glass with surprising effectiveness for a tram their size, starting with 6-8 forward James Singleton.
Our Pick: Georgia
NO. 7 N.C. STATE vs. No. 10 MICHIGAN STATE
Pick N.C. State: Because you stopped watching the ACC Tournament after the Wolfpack's semifinal win against Maryland. In truth, State may not be as good as that win or as bad as they looked in a loss to Duke the next day. They're an unselfish team with just two players, forwards Josh Powell and Clifford Crawford, who aren't viable three-point threats. Anthony Grundy has evolved from an unsteady slasher to an all-around threat.
Unless: Marcus Taylor continues to play like the best player in the Big 10. Under siege in the season's opening weeks, Taylor is averaging 28.7 points, 4.7 assists and 2.0 steals over the last three games. Despite their passing skills, the Wolfpack don't have any elite ball-handlers. Archie Miller looks like a point guard, but he's been most effective when free to roam the perimeter in search of open shots. While he rarely makes mistakes with the ball, he's also cautious to the point of having just four assists in the last four games. Tom Izzo doesn't have his usual assortment of defensive warriors, but the Spartans still do a good job of slowing down the game and forcing teams to run a half-court offense. N.C. State can handle that kind of game, but it's playing into the hands of Michigan State. As always, the Spartans hold a decisive edge on their opponents when it comes to rebounds. That's bad news for an N.C. State team with no player averaging more than 5.5 rebounds a game.
Our Pick: Michigan State
NO. 2 CONNECTICUT vs. No. 15 HAMPTON
Pick Connecticut: Because lightning doesn't strike twice. Even if this year's Hampton team is as good as the squad that beat Iowa State last season, there's no chance of them sneaking up on Jim Calhoun. The NCAA Selection Committee is catching flak for seeding Gonzaga so low, but they deserve some praise for recognizing an underrated Huskies team that earned a title in the Big East Tournament. Point guard Taliek Brown isn't a proven commodity just yet, but neither was Brandon Granville prior to USC's run last March. While Caron Butler is the player who makes or breaks the team's tournament hopes, newcomers Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor are the names to remember when filling out your bracket. Gordon gives the Huskies the dynamic scoring threat Tony Robertson simply isn't, and Okafor gives them a shot-blocking presence.
Unless: Connecticut could miss a flight or get stuck in traffic. On the court, Hampton's best hope is that Calhoun's message doesn't get through to a team with limited tournament experience. The Huskies have a negative turnover margin, much of it do to carelessness from Brown and Butler. That could be trouble for a Hampton team that likes create easy shots off the transition game. Tommy Adams may be the best 3-point shooter Connecticut has faced this season.
Our Pick: Connecticut
DANCING TO ATLANTA
Assuming they avoid any first round shenanigans, Kentucky has a chance to scare Maryland. With a solid collection of post players, the Wildcats can handle Maryland's interior strength. The key remains with the play of Keith Bogans and Tayshaun Prince. Each is capable of big performances in big games, but each, and especially Bogans, has the potential to shoot Kentucky out of a close game. The good news for Maryland is that they should have relatively little trouble with their first two games, leaving them rested and ready for Kentucky, Marquette or Tulsa.
Connecticut faces a tough second-round battle no matter who wins between N.C. State and Michigan State. Despite their seeding, the Wolfpack might be a more attractive opponent for the Huskies. Georgia and Texas Tech both enter the tournament with question marks, which is why Southern Illinois looks like a team with a chance of surviving the first weekend. Should Bob Knight's big three prove too much for the Salukis, look for the Red Raiders to get past Georgia before stumbling against Connecticut. Because not only are the Terrapins playing the worst team in the tournament, they're playing the game when lucky No. 64 is tired. Like most contenders, Maryland's potent offense masks a stifling defense. In a conference known for offense where every team averaged at least 70 points, Maryland limited the opposition to 39.6 percent shooting. The pace of the game allows for plenty of rebound opportunities for both teams, but Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox and good board work from the guards ensures the Terps maintain a comfortable advantage in rebounding margin.
Sweet 16: Maryland vs. Kentucky, Southern Illinois vs. Connecticut
Regional Final: Kentucky vs Connecticut