여러분은 지난 금융위기사태에서 서브프라임 모기지 붕괴사건을 기억하나요? 자, 이번에는 우리는 새로운 부채 폭탄을 보게되는데, 서브프라임 자동차부채가 붕괴하는 것이다. 최근에 자동차 판매상들은 점점더 공격적이 되었는데, 그들은 돈을 빌릴 여력이 없는 이들에게 돈을 빌려주려 극력 영업하면서 어떤 조건에서라도 새차를 사게끔 유도했다. 그것은 서브프라임 모기지와 똑같은 일이었는데, 처음에는 그게 지불되는 것처럼 보였으나, 지금은 중대한 문제로 번지기 시작했다.
이제 연체율은 두자릿수 비율로 늘고있고, 주요 자동차 판매상들은 수억달러의 손실을 떠안게 되었다.
확실이 우리 미국은 부채에 빠져죽는 나라인 셈이다, 우리는 우리가 뿌린 씨앗을 거두고 있다.
Do you remember the subprime mortgage meltdown from the last financial crisis? Well, this time around we are facing a subprime auto loan meltdown. In recent years, auto lenders have become more and more aggressive, and they have been increasingly willing to lend money to people that should not be borrowing money to buy a new vehicle under any circumstances. Just like with subprime mortgages, this strategy seemed to pay off at first, but now economic reality is beginning to be felt in a major way. Delinquency rates are up by double digit percentages, and major auto lenders are bracing for hundreds of millions of dollars of losses. We are a nation that is absolutely drowning in debt, and we are most definitely going to reap what we have sown.
시장 규모는 상상한 것보다 더 크다. 올해초에 자동차할부 부채거품은 1조달러를 사상처음 넘어섰다.
미국인들은 새로운 차나 중고차를 전보다 더 많이 구매하는데, 연체율이 30일에서 60일로 늘어나는 비율이 2사분기에 올랐는데, 전체 자동채 부채는 1조 270억 달러에 이른다.
The size of this market is larger than you may imagine. Earlier this year, the auto loan bubble surpassed the one trillion dollar mark for the first time ever…
Americans are borrowing more than ever for new and used vehicles, and 30- and 60-day delinquency rates rose in the second quarter, according to the automotive arm of one of the nation’s largest credit bureaus.
The total balance of all outstanding auto loans reached $1.027 trillion between April 1 and June 30, the second consecutive quarter that it surpassed the $1-trillion mark, reports Experian Automotive.
The average size of an auto loan is also at a record high. At $29,880, it is now just a shade under $30,000.
In order to try to help people afford the payments, auto lenders are now stretching loans out for six or even seven years. At this point it is almost like getting a mortgage.
But even with those stretched out loans, the average monthly auto loan payment is now up to a record 499 dollars.
That is the average loan size. To me, this is absolutely infuriating, because only a very small percentage of wealthy Americans are able to afford a $499 monthly payment on a single vehicle.
Many middle class American families are only bringing in three or four thousand dollars a month (before taxes). How in the world do they think that they can afford a five hundred dollar monthly auto loan payment on just one vehicle?
Just like with subprime mortgages, people are being taken advantage of severely, and the end result is going to be catastrophic for the U.S. financial system.
Already, auto loan delinquencies are rising to very frightening levels. In July, 60 day subprime loan delinquencies were up 13 percent on a month-over-month basis and were up 17 percent compared to the same month last year.
Prime delinquencies were up 12 percent on a month-over-month basis and were up 21 percent compared to the same month last year.
We have a huge crisis on our hands, and major auto lenders are setting aside massive amounts of cash in order to try to cover these losses. The following comes from USA Today…
In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford reported in the first half of this year it allowed $449 million for credit losses, a 34% increase from the first half of 2015.
General Motors reported in a similar filing that it set aside $864 million for credit losses in that same period of 2016, up 14% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, other big corporations are also alarmed about the economic health of average U.S. consumers. Just check out what Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos had to say about this just the other day…
I know that when we look at globally the overall U.S. population, it seems like things are getting better. But when you really start breaking it down and you look at that core consumer that we serve on the lower economic scale that’s out there, that demographic, things have not gotten any better for her, and arguably, they’re worse. And they’re worse, because rents are accelerating, healthcare is accelerating on her at a very, very rapid clip.
증시는 모든 일이 다 좋다고 말하는 것으로 보인다, 허나 진짜 경제수치는 완전히 다른 이야기를 한다. 우리가 지금 보는 것은 2008년 상황과 유사하다, 이것은 거대한 기관들이 끔찍한 하락세로 떨어지는걸 포함한다. 화요일에 ITT 기업은 모든 지역을 폐쇄하고 영구히 문을 닫는다는 소식을 전했다. 이는 엘에이타임즈가 보도한 내용이다:
The stock market may seem to be saying that everything is fine (for the moment), but the hard economic numbers are telling a completely different story. What we are experiencing right now looks so similar to 2008, and this includes big institutions just dropping dead seemingly out of the blue. on Tuesday, we learned that ITT Technical Institute is immediately shutting down and permanently closing all locations. This is from a Los Angeles Times report…
미국의 최대 기업중 하나인 수익성을 내는 이 기업은 모든 대학캠퍼스 영업점을 영구히 폐쇄함을 발표했다. 회사는 최근에 미국 교육부가 ITT 사를 새로운 신입생 가입을 금지하는 조처에 원인이 있다고 지적했는데, 정부는 연방정부의 금융지원을 끊었다는 것이다.
두 사분기 전에 학교가 문제가 있다는 소문이 있었다, 허나 그들은 이미 학생들이 끝내는걸 허용될 것임을 우리에게 말했다고 이회사 매니저 위긴스가 전했다.
그는 이 상황에서 화가 났냐는 질문을 받자, 그는 화가 1천만배나 났다고 말했다.
The company that operates the for-profit chain, one of the country’s largest, announced that it was permanently closing all its campuses nationwide. It blamed the shutdown on the recent move by the U.S. Education Department to ban ITT from enrolling new students who use federal financial aid.
“Two quarters ago there were rumors about the school having problems, but they told us that anyone who was already a student would be allowed to finish,” said Wiggins, who works as the assistant manager for a family-run auto parts business and went to ITT to open new opportunities.
“Am I angry?” he said. “I’m like angry times 10 million.”
이런 폐쇄의 결과로 3만5천명 학생이 갑자기 떠났고, 회사는 8천명 직원이 일자리를 잃었다.
이게 경제침체가 벌어지는 상황이다. 대기업들은 갑작스런 포기상태나 파산상황에서 투쟁하고 있는데, 이는 수많은 피고용자들에게 폭탄으로 터진다.
이제 다가오는것은 2008년 위기사태를 능가하는 것인데, 자동차 부채에 이어, 전체 가계부채는 12조 달러를 넘었다the 12 trillion dollar mark. 우리가 엄청난 거품폭탄이 터지려는 위기상황을 살아가는데, 그 일이 벌어질때 참사는 가히 상상을 넘어서는 일이 될 것이다.
미국민들은 경제 참사를 단단히 대비해야한다.
As a result of this shutdown, 35,000 students are suddenly left out in the cold and approximately 8,000 employees have lost their jobs.
This is what happens during a major economic downturn. Large institutions that may have been struggling under the surface for quite a while suddenly give up and drop a bomb on those that were depending on them. In the months ahead, there will be a lot more examples of this.
Already, some of the biggest corporate names in America have been laying off thousands of workers in 2016. Mass layoffs are usually an early warning sign that big trouble is ahead, so keep a close eye on those companies.
The pace of the economic decline has been a bit slower than many (including myself) originally anticipated, but without a doubt it has continued.
And it is undeniable that the stage is set for a crisis that will absolutely dwarf 2008. Our national debt has nearly doubled since the beginning of the last crisis, corporate debt has doubled, student loan debt has crossed the trillion dollar mark, auto loan debt has crossed the trillion dollar mark, and total household debt has crossed the 12 trillion dollar mark.
We are living in the greatest debt bubble in world history, and there are signs that this giant bubble is now starting to burst. And when it does, the pain is going to be greater than most people would dare to imagine.
