소말리아, 알 카에다의 또다른 기지가 될 지도?

현지시각으로 18일자 워싱턴포스트 사설입니다. 넉 달 전 미국의 비호를 받는 군벌세력을 물리치고 모가디슈의 통제권을 장악한 Islamic Courts Union이 남부 소말리아 대부분의 지역으로 통제권역을 넓히고 있네요. 그 과정에서 서부 바이도아의 세력과 에티오피아 군과 교전하기도 한 모양입니다. ICU는 에티오피아에 적대적인 에리트레아의 지원을 받는 모양이네요. 근데 현재 ICU는 미국정부의 테러리스트 목록에 오른 극단주의자가 수장이고, 군사지도자는 서방세계의 구호봉사자들과 언론인 살해에 연관돼 있으며, 1998년 케냐대사관 폭탄테러에 연관된 것으로 추정되는 3명의 알카에다 조직원을 은닉하고 있는 것으로 추정된다고 합니다. 또한 기독교 에티오피아와 지하드를 펼치기 위해 외부에서 조직원들이 입국하고 있다네요. 한마디로 1990년 후반의 아프간과 가면 갈수록 비슷해지고 있다고 평가합니다. 현 행정부는 딴데 신경쓸 일도 많겠지만, 소말리아의 움직임을 무시해서는 안된다고 주장하는군요. 수말리아 북부세력에 대한 지원도 주장하고 있고, 어쨌건 direct action을 통해 소말리아의 테러리스트들이 제거되지 않으면 나중에 피곤해질 거라고 말하고 있습니다. Somalia Simmers Al-Qaeda terrorists find haven under an Islamic regime, and a regional war threatens. Wednesday, October 18, 2006; A20 FOUR MONTHS ago an Islamic fundamentalist movement gained control of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, after defeating an alliance of local warlords backed by the United States. Since then the Islamic Courts Union, as the alliance is called, has expanded its control over much of southern Somalia, including the port city of Kismaayo. It has alternatively negotiated and skirmished with a rival, internationally backed government that clings to a base in the western town of Baidoa. It has come to the brink of war with neighboring Ethiopia, which reportedly has sent troops into Somalia, and has won the support of Ethiopia's hostile neighbor, Eritrea. The Islamic courts' central council has meanwhile come under the control of an extremist who is on the U.S. government's list of terrorists. One of its principal militia commanders is linked to murders of Western aid workers and journalists and is believed to be sheltering three members of the al-Qaeda movement who were involved in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. There are reports that more foreign fighters are arriving in Mogadishu to join the movement, drawn by its call for jihad against Christians in Ethiopia. What is the United States doing about this dangerous combination of an emerging terrorist base and possible regional war in East Africa? The sad and alarming answer is next to nothing. Since its allies were driven out of the Somali capital in June, the Bush administration has had few contacts and obtained scant intelligence about the Islamic courts. Officials maintain they don't even know for sure whether Ethiopian troops are in the country; the Somalis say they have seen and even fought them, but the Ethiopian government denies it. In short, Somalia is looking more and more like Afghanistan in the late 1990s -- dominated by an Islamic fundamentalist movement that shelters al-Qaeda; prone to the meddling of neighbors; virtually ignored by the United States. Sadly, the chief difference is that, because of poor intelligence, even a military strike such as that attempted by the Clinton administration against Osama bin Laden in 1998 looks unfeasible. The administration may have several international crises to worry about, but it cannot afford to neglect this gathering threat. It ought to appoint a special envoy to the region who could begin to work with the Ethiopian, Eritrean and regional Somali governments, and try to restrain them from touching off a regional war. The administration should seek contact with moderate elements in the Islamic courts (there are some) and encourage the ongoing mediation efforts of the Arab League. It should exercise greater control over the Somali coastline. It should consider giving diplomatic recognition to the breakaway northern region of Somaliland, which has a benign government. If the terrorist threat in Somalia cannot be eliminated by direct action, it must at least be contained.