한국 인구감소 수준 흑사병 때 능가

한국 인구감소 수준 흑사병 때 능가'라는 미국 뉴욕타임스 보도 Is South Korea Disappearing? Dec. 2, 2023 By Ross Douthat Opinion Columnist Sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter  Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world every weekday morning. Get it sent to your inbox. For some time now, South Korea has been a striking case study in the depopulation problem that hangs over the developed world. Almost all rich countries have seen their birthrates settle below replacement level, but usually that means somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 children per woman. For instance, in 2021 the United States stood at 1.7, France at 1.8, Italy at 1.3 and Canada at 1.4. But South Korea is distinctive in that it slipped into below-replacement territory in the 1980s but lately has been falling even more — dropping below one child per woman in 2018 to 0.8 after the pandemic and now, in provisional data for the second and third quarters of 2023, to just 0.7 births per woman. It’s worth unpacking what that means. 그것이 무엇을 의미하는지 풀어볼 가치가 있다. A country that sustained a birthrate at that level would have, for every 200 people in one generation, 70 people in the next one, a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. Run the experiment through a second generational turnover, and your original 200-person population falls below 25. Run it again, and you’re nearing the kind of population crash caused by the fictional superflu in Stephen King’s “The Stand.” New South Korean statistics worsen dread over low birthrate Officials seek to encourage more births but have failed to stop decline A South Korean couple take care of their baby son at their home in Seoul in December 2018.    © Reuters STEVEN BOROWIEC, Nikkei staff writer December 5, 2023 15:00 JST SEOUL -- Recently released data points on declining births are intensifying fears over South Korea's economic future, and have even prompted some existential questions from doomsayers. The country's statistics authority last week showed the birthrate at 0.70, an all-time low for any third quarter and the same as the previous quarter, which was also a quarterly record low. On an annual basis, the rate was 0.78 in 2022 and 0.81 in 2021. Fewer births means fewer children attending school, and separate figures released early this week show that the number of children entering elementary school next year will be below 400,000 for the first time. While South Korea is not the only East Asian economy with demographic challenges, a report released Sunday by the Bank of Korea projects that the country's economy is likely to start shrinking in 2050 if current trends continue. The report points to anxiety felt by young people over jobs and housing as key factors behind the low birthrate. It also highlighted how parents only use an average of 10 weeks of their 52 weeks of legally guaranteed paid parental leave. The authors say that increasing government spending on family benefits from the current 1.4% of GDP to the OECD average of 2.2% could modestly boost the fertility rate. Adding fuel to the fevered conversation was a New York Times column published over the weekend. The headline asks, "Is South Korea disappearing?" The column then attempts to answer that question, citing figures stating that the current birthrate and the pace of its decline suggest that South Korea's population could contract from the current 51 million to 35 million by the late 2060s. Columnist Ross Douthat follows that with doom-laden descriptions of where South Korea finds itself, how it got there and why the state of affairs is likely to keep deteriorating. He posits that if the current birthrate continues, the country will experience "a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century." ■ 인도의 74세 할머니가 쌍둥이를 낳았다 Who is the 74 year old mother of twins? A 74-year-old woman from southern India has given birth to her first children, twin girls, Thursday, possibly becoming the oldest woman ever to give birth, local outlets report. Mangayamma Yaramati opted for in vitro fertilization after years of being unable to conceive, reported the Times of India. A 74-year-old woman reportedly gave birth to twins, may be the oldest ever to give birth A 74-year-old woman from southern India has given birth to her first children, twin girls, Thursday, possibly becoming the oldest woman ever to give birth, local outlets report. Mangayamma Yaramati opted for in vitro fertilization after years of being unable to conceive, reported the Times of India. She gave birth via cesarean section, and is currently in intensive care "to come out of the stress" of giving birth, doctors said. "Both mother and the infants are healthy and have no complications whatsoever,” said Dr. Sankayyala Uma Shankar, director of Ahalya Hospital in the city of Guntur, to the Hindustan Times. Uma Shankar, who is reportedly the doctor who delivered the babies, told the Washington Post that she is 74, according to a provided birth certificate. Other news outlets have reported that she is 73.