스크랩 압둘라 사우디 국왕 사망

[옹달샘1]

Saudi ruler dead: King Abdullah dies in hospital aged 90, Crown Prince Salman succeeds

압둘라 사우디 국왕 사망…'그는 누구였으며, 왕위권 계승은 어떻게?'

[아시아경제 온라인이슈팀]사우디아라비아의 압둘라 빈 압둘아지즈 알사우드 국왕이 향년 91세로 23일 사망했다. 

사우디아라비아 국영방송은 23일(현지 시각) 압둘라 국왕이 사망했으며 살만 왕세제가 왕위를 이어받는다고 보도했다. 

사우디 왕가의 6번째 국왕으로 지난 2005년 왕위에 오른 압둘라 국왕은 최근 폐렴으로 입원 치료를 받았다. 

사망한 압둘라 국왕은 앞서 사우디의 문호를 대외적으로 개방했다고 알려졌으며 미국, 영국과의 원만한 대외 관계와 대외 무역 환경 개선, 국내 교육 환경 개선, 여성 투표권 부여 등 많은 업적을 남겼다.

왕위를 이어받을 부총리 겸 국방장관 살만 왕세제는 최근 카타르에서 열린 걸프국 정상회의를 포함해 여러 공식 행사에 압둘라 국왕을 대신해 참석해왔다. 

살만 왕세제는 압둘아지즈와 그의 여덟번째 부인 핫사 알 수다이리 사이에서 태어난 25번째 아들이다. 핵심 권력인 수다이리 세븐(수다이리 왕비의 일곱아들) 중 6남이다.

온라인이슈팀 issue@asiae.co.kr

http://www.asiae.co.kr/news/view.htm?idxno=2015012310022200051

사우디 북부 국경 뚫리다 /자살폭탄공격당한 사우디  

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2015/01/saudi-arabia-on-the-edge-of-an-abyss.html

Thursday, 15 January 2015

Saudi Arabia Plunges into an Abyss

Last week, just before the Charlie Hebdo attack, ISIS sent a suicide team across the border into Saudi Arabia.  Here's what happened.

• The attack was successful.  The team found and killed the Saudi general (Oudah al-Belawi) in charge of the country's nothern border zone at the outpost he was visiting (here's a pic of the state funeral for some of the men killed in the attack).
  
  
  
• The target was significant.  General Oudah al-Belawi was in charge of the multi-billion dollar Saudi effort to secure the northern border against ISIS.  Not only has Saudi Arabia sent 30,000 additional troops to guard the northern border, it's building a highly automated 600-mi security wall to protect itself (lots of robots and sensors).  Here's a great graphic of the monstrosity from the Telegraph.  My take:  What a waste of time and effort.  
  
  
  
• It demoralized the Saudi military.   This attack deeply undermines the morale of Saudi troops on the border.   If ISIS can kill a top general...

Saudi Arabia on the edge

Here why this attack is signficant.  

• It tells us that ISIS is starting to focus on Saudi Arabia --> with good reason.  The reason is that there's simply no other way to unite the various groups under the ISIS banner.  ISIS, like all open source movements, needs to keep moving in order to stay alive (like a shark).  Right now, ISIS has stalled.  A jihad to retake the holy sites from the corrupt regime in Riyadh can serve as a simple plausible promise that can reignite the open source war ISIS started, on a global scale.
  
  
• The Saudis are vulnerable.  The attackers knew exactly when the general was going to be at the outpost.  This tells us that the Saudi military is rife with ISIS sympathisers and/or active members.  If so, the Saudi military may melt away when facing jihadis (or switch sides) in the same way 30,000 Iraqi troops did early last year a couple of hundred miles to the north.  
  
  
• It explains the timing of Charlie Hebdo.  Not only was it an attack that has gained ISIS favor with millions of Saudis (given how racist and anti-islamic the magazine's cartoons were), it was also (and more importantly) a distraction.  It has successfully distracted the collective west, by pulling them into another "war on terrorism."  This attack is something I call a Red Queen's trap, since it results in damage to both the contestants in the struggle. 

What does this mean for Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia knows it is in trouble, that's why the Saudis are trying to buy influence in the west through a cheap oil policy (at the same time, a low price puts the hurt on US frackers and ISIS oil smugglers alike).  However, ISIS trumped this effort with Charlie Hebdo.  It will be difficult for the Saudis to convince the west they are the real target after the attack in Paris.  Here's what this means:

• We're likely to see ISIS make a big push into Saudi Arabia this spring.  This push may result in some very, very rapid gains by ISIS as Saudi troops melt away and/or join ISIS.  The big question?  If ISIS does gain a foothold: do the Saudi's accept foreign troops/airpower at the cost of their legitimacy, or do they go down fighting solo?
  
  
• The oil price dip we're currently experiencing will rapidly reverse as soon as it's clear that ISIS is gearing up a real jihad to retake Mecca and Medina.  $150 a barrel or more by the end of the year, once this gets going (or much more as it puts all of the gulf aristos in full panic mode simultaneously). 
  
  
• The rapid swing in oil price will plunge the perpetually stagnant western economies into a simultaneous rout.  However, as bad as that will be, it will of little consequence compared to the damage the global financial system will do to us as hundreds of trillions of dollars in explosive financial derivatives topple the ziggurat of western debt we've so foolishly built.