누가 이번 시즌의 All-Difense 팀인가? (By John Hollinger)

[올라조던]

ESPN 칼럼니스트 John Hollinger가 선정한 기준입니다.

베티에가 공격할 때는 SF지만 수비할 때는 SG를 많이 막는다고 SG로 분류했군요.

던컨도 센터로 분류하고요.

갠적으로 Third Team이 젤 세보이네요. (공격 포함해서)

First Team도 강해보이지만 그래도 Third팀이 공수막강으로 보이고 균형도 잘 맞는 것 같습니다.

- First  : 론도 - 베티에 - 프린스 - 가넷 - 던컨
- Second  : 둘링 - 벨 - 보웬 - 쉬드 - 캠비
- Third : 천시 - 코비 - 피어스 - 헤이스 - 어깨뽕

All-Defense: Who brought the D this season?

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
(Archive)

Updated: April 10, 2008

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Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett anchor two of the top defenses in the league. And they do it very well.

It's time, once again, for the year-end awards, and there's one set of awards in particular that's extremely difficult to hand out.

I'm referring to the All-Defense team, because choosing one remains as much art as science. Despite the best efforts of numbers guys, like me, to shine some light on individual defense, there still are many dark corners.

Nonetheless, we have a couple of numbers that can prove useful. One of my favorites is "points saved," with the idea being to compare what a player's team gave up when he was on the court (numbers from 82games.com) to what it was expected to give up based on previous results. The latter figure can be calculated by taking the minutes a player played in a game, multiplying it by the team's points allowed in that game and dividing by 48 (or 53 for an overtime game).

The result is far from perfect, but with just a couple of exceptions, it reflects the general hierarchy of who is good at defense and who isn't. The first caveat is that it's much easier to look good in this rating on a bad defensive team than on a good defensive team, which is why I included an adjustment for a team's defensive efficiency rating on the season. The second is what I call the "bad backup" effect, the idea being that it's easier to have a good "points saved" figure if the man replacing you is a particularly bad defensive player.

The final point is more nefarious, however, because it directly relates to what we're trying to measure. A lot of good defensive players spend their time matched up against opponents' best offensive players. In fact, a lot of coaches intentionally match their ace defender's minutes with the opposing star's.

In other words, it's possible a player's "points saved" might vastly underrate his contribution because he's on the court when the opponent has its best offensive lineup on the floor and off the court when it doesn't. This is particularly true for players like Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier who don't have great offensive value.

Needless to say, there's still a large subjective element to all this. I included every player's adjusted points-saved totals (expressed per 40 minutes, through Tuesday's games), but I wasn't a slave to them in choosing an All-Defense team. I've seen every team play start to finish at least 10 times and all but three of them in person (sorry Bucks, Mavs and Clippers -- maybe next season), so I think I have a pretty good feel for who has done what.

With all that said, here's one man's ballot:

POINT GUARD

Honorable mention: Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Baron Davis

Parker (2.26) has strong to excellent scores every year, in part because he tends to share the court with Bowen and Tim Duncan. Still, he's an underrated defender with decent size and good quickness.

Paul (0.09) is a terror off the ball, obviously, what with his enormous steals total. The points saved might underrate him, since the Hornets seem to play slower when he's on the bench. Nonetheless, his on-ball work is more decent than spectacular, so I'm more comfortable with him in this group than in the top three.

Harris (1.14) was my first-team pick a year ago, but his numbers aren't as good this season, and I suspect he might be concentrating more on the offensive end -- especially since he went to Jersey.

Davis (2.62) was my third-team choice last year and still can bring it as well as anyone on a given night, but there are too many nights when he seems disinterested.

Third team: Chauncey Billups, Detroit (4.36)
An honorable mention pick a year ago, Billups moves up to the third team. The Pistons have been one of the league's top-five defensive teams all season, and his ability to hold down the fort at the point of attack is one of the reasons.

Although quicker guards can give him some trouble, he's virtually impossible to post up and big enough to handle guarding 2s -- in fact, he often trades assignments with Richard Hamilton.

Second team: Keyon Dooling, Orlando (7.98)
I was skittish about putting somebody who played so little so high up the list, but he's an active defender with good size, plus he can guard two positions and willingly pressures the ball. More importantly, his numbers pretty much leap off the page in terms of how much better the Magic defend with him on the court.

I'm sure he'll be completely ignored in the real All-Defense voting, but he's a quality defender who deserves a shout-out.

First team: Rajon Rondo, Boston (5.94)
A second-teamer last year, Rondo deservedly moves up to the first team this year. He's as quick as any guard in the league, and his long arms make him an absolute pest to opposing point guards. Plus, he has the size to handle bigger guards in switches.

Last season, he had the best per-minute numbers at the position, and this season, he was second, so the numbers back up what the visuals tell me.

---

SHOOTING GUARD

Honorable mention: Anthony Parker, Tony Allen, Ron Artest, John Salmons

Parker (-0.29) was my second-team choice a year ago, but his numbers haven't been nearly as strong this year and, subjectively, I don't think he has been quite as effective a stopper as he was last season.

Allen (4.06) was absolutely ferocious the three times I saw him in person, but the effort didn't seem quite as consistent in the TV games I watched, and he didn't play as much as the guys in the top three.

The Kings have been a horrid defensive team, but Artest (0.29) and Salmons (3.68) have been the two bright spots. However, Artest is too focused on his offense on too many nights, and Salmons went in the tank when Kevin Martin returned and he had to come off the bench.

Third team: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (4.21)
Superstar players generally aren't asked to take on tough defensive assignments until late in games. But Bryant is asked to do it more often than most, and it's a job he does very well, making him a third-team pick for a second straight season.

Of particular note is that his D didn't appear to wane one iota after he suffered a midseason pinkie injury that will require surgery at some point in the offseason.

Second team: Raja Bell, Phoenix (4.59)
While Bell's shooting has been a disappointment for much of the season, his defense has remained solid. It seems to me he has done less of the ref-baiting he did in years past and has focused more on just getting stops. It appears the strategy has worked.

Opposing shooting guards have a microscopic player efficiency rating of just 12.1 when he's on the court, according to 82games.com.

First team: Shane Battier, Houston (1.55)
Although a small forward offensively, Battier has spent most of his time defending shooting guards. Plus, putting him here gives us the strongest first team overall -- so shooting guard it is.

This probably is the one case in which the numbers most disagree with my observations, and since Battier's points-saved totals in previous seasons were spectacular, this almost certainly is a fluke.

Subjectively, I thought Battier was clearly the best defensive wing in the league this season and was the best defender on the league's second-best defensive team. I expounded on his defensive skills a few weeks ago when I was following the Rockets during their winning streak, so I won't repeat myself now, except to say that if he doesn't make All-Defense this year, there is something terribly, terribly wrong.

---

SMALL FORWARDS

Honorable mention: Josh Howard, Stephen Jackson, Andre Iguodala

Howard (4.17) has been one of the league's top two-way players for several years, but I'm not sure he's quite in the elite category at either end. It's his second straight year as an honorable mention pick and, once again, he just as easily could have been a third-teamer.

Jackson (2.53) is one of the few good defenders on a pretty lousy defensive team, but I don't think he moves laterally as well as some of the other guys on this list.

Iguodala (1.51) has outstanding tools and gives a decent effort for a guy with so much offensive responsibility. He's one of the reasons the surprising Sixers are seventh overall in defensive efficiency, so it wounds me a little to leave him off the list, but he can't quite hang with the top three guys.

Third team: Paul Pierce, Boston (6.90)
One of the big reasons the Celtics have been so unbelievably good on defense is that Pierce has bought in to what they are doing and put up the most sustained defensive effort of his career.

His offensive numbers have suffered for it, but Boston's position in the standings speaks for itself. Pierce always has had the physique and foot speed to be a good defender, and this year, he's really put it all together.

Second team: Bruce Bowen, San Antonio (2.77)
I don't think there's any question that Bowen, at 36, has slipped a little from his peak and isn't quite as devastating a force as he once was. That said, he's slipping from an awfully high peak.

Bowen still moves as well laterally as probably anyone in the game and has the same dogged mentality that's made him so frustrating for opposing scorers for the past decade.

First team: Tayshaun Prince, Detroit (6.83)
For Prince, defense comes down to a simple premise -- he can play further off his man than anyone else in the league because his arms are so long he can still challenge the shot. As a result, it's very tough to get past him, yet it's very tough to get a clean look from the perimeter against him.

He also is great at picking up guards on switches and, since Ben Wallace left, he has been more vital to Detroit's defensive success.

---

CENTERS

Honorable mention: Kendrick Perkins, DeSagana Diop, Tyson Chandler, Jeff Foster

Perkins (7.42) has been the perfect complement to Kevin Garnett; he's a physical, dirty-work guy who will bang against the league's bigger post players, and he cares not a whit how many touches he gets at the other end. He can overdo it with the physicality at times, but he's an overlooked factor in the Celtics' success.

Chandler (2.42) is a little bit like teammate Chris Paul -- his importance is clear visually but tough to prove statistically. He's the best defender on a pretty good defensive team, but it's toughest to crack the top three at center, so he'll have to settle for honorable mention again.

Diop (8.54) has had awesome numbers, and observations back them up -- he's clearly one of the best defensive centers in basketball, both in terms of defending the post and offering help defense. But he's become so poor offensively that he hardly plays, making it tough to move him too far up this list.

Foster (5.87) is vastly underrated for his D. He might be the quickest center in the league and is perfectly comfortable going outside and checking small forwards. With Jermaine O'Neal out, he's been the key defender on a team that's somehow stayed in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency.

Third team: Dwight Howard, Orlando (-0.52)
Howard is the key defender on one of the league's best teams and obviously a dominant defensive rebounder. His points-saved numbers are shockingly average, but he also has been backed up by a very good defensive center, Adonal Foyle.

To me, the two more pertinent numbers are that opposing centers had a 12.9 PER against him and that Orlando is seventh in defensive efficiency with Howard as the only truly strong defender in the starting lineup.

Second team: Marcus Camby, Denver (1.77)
Subjectively, I thought Camby defended at least as well this season as a year ago, when he won the defensive player of the year award. Of course, part of the way he accomplished this was by essentially taking the year off on offense, but we won't worry ourselves with that here.

Denver, believe it or not, ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and the mobility of big guys like Camby, Kenyon Martin and Eduardo Najera is the reason it ranks this high with its withering pace and the perimeter players' blatant disregard for D.

First team: Tim Duncan, San Antonio (3.94)
The Spurs tend to limit Duncan's exposure to star post players, so we rarely get to see how good he is on a man-to-man basis. Instead, we have to content ourselves with watching his textbook help-defense and seeing how he never leaves his feet but always has a hand in position to block or alter a shot.

I think he, like Bowen, might have lost a bit from his peak, which is why the Spurs are "only" third in defensive efficiency this season, but he remains among the cream of the crop on D.

---

POWER FORWARDS

Honorable mention: Anderson Varejao, Boris Diaw, Josh Smith, Lamar Odom

I have to mention Diaw (5.29) because his numbers have been huge and opposing power forwards have had only a 13.6 PER against him. His numbers weren't anywhere near this good in past seasons, and subjectively, I don't see his being close to the class of some of these other guys, but the numbers warrant at least discussion.

Smith (2.83) is an amazing shot-blocker, and the other parts of his defensive game are rounding into shape … but they're not quite there yet. His lapses are definitely much fewer and farther between than in years past, so give him another year or two, and he'll probably climb into the top three.

Odom (5.02) has responded to his continually shrinking offensive role by playing quality defense at two positions and pulling down 11 boards per 40 minutes. He's a little overrated offensively, but he doesn't get nearly enough credit for how hard he plays on D.

Varejao (5.07) missed time with his holdout and an injury, and his timing was a little off when he came back, but you can see how important he is to the way Cleveland plays. He was a third-team pick a year ago and would have made it again if he'd played all season.

Third team: Chuck Hayes, Houston (7.46)
A second-teamer a year ago, Hayes, at 6-6, is undersized for his position, but pound for pound, he's one of the league's strongest players. He knows how to use every ounce to push opponents out of prime post position.

His defensive stats have been ginormous all three seasons he's been in the league, so even though he lost his job to Luis Scola, he still gets a top-three selection here.

Second team: Rasheed Wallace, Detroit (5.99)
Despite his well-earned rep as a hothead and loose cannon, Wallace is an intelligent help defender who uses his exceptional length to bother shooters. He makes very few mistakes, can defend the center spot in a pinch and does a decent job handling guards on switches.

As an added plus, he has handed out fewer free points this season than in years past by getting only 11 T's.

First team and defensive player of the year: Kevin Garnett, Boston (8.22)
Yes, Garnett's defensive stats have been huge, but they tell only a fraction of the story. Boston was a middling defensive team a year ago, and it wasn't clear that trading for Ray Allen made it any better.

In other words, the entire jump from 18th in defensive efficiency a year ago to third all-time this season can pretty much be laid at the feet of Garnett. His intensity on the court is palpable, but perhaps even more important is how he has affected Pierce and the bench guys. I'm not sure whether that translates to MVP -- not when Chris Paul is saving basketball in New Orleans -- but if he doesn't win the defensive player of the year award, there needs to be an investigation, because he's been absolutely spectacular.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

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[david kim]

아 근데 이거 믿을게 못됩니다....

[올라조던]

암튼 글쓴이도 '82games.com'에서 뽑은 'points saved' 등을 참고해서 과학적으로 뽑아보려고 했는데 맹점도 있다고 인정하네요.

[[LAL]Zoom-KB]

.......론도? 수비 잘하나요?(순수하게 질문...보스톤 경기 보면 빅3만 주목하느라 론도의 플레이는 공격에서밖에 관심이 없었거든요...) 코비가 서드팀이라...ㄷㄷ

[TD21]

피어스와 론도가 수비팀 언급될 정도의 수비수였나요.... 저로서는 조금 이해가 안되네요;;;;

[올라조던]

제 생각엔 글쓴이가 참고한 수치가 득점과 실점 마진을 많이 반영한 것 같습니다. 그래서 득점 마진이 큰 보스턴 선수가 3명이나 올라있는 듯 하고요. 물론 가넷은 당근 포함되어야 하지만...

[[LAL]크리스밈]

론도 퍼스트... 코비 써드 ... 실제로는 써드가 없으니.. 코비는 디펜시브 탈락?=_= 가드중 한자리는 코비가 꿰차있다고 생각하는데요

[One & Only]

폴이 없군요;;; 단순히 스틸갯수를 떠나서 수비도 곧잘 하던데;; 서드에는 들줄알았는데 없네요;;;;그리고 코비가 서드라니 ㅠㅠ

[david kim]

이분 좀 욕먹는 사람입니다. 아무리 론도가 잘해도 그렇지 어떻게 퍼스트로 뽑습니까 참....

[[LAL]코비+바이넘좋아]

코비랑 폴이 퍼스트팀일것 같은데 .... ㅠㅠ

[황숙영]

이분의 모든 칼럼은 숫자에서 시작해서 숫자에서 끝나는걸로 알고 있어요 플레이오프 성공여부도 시즌중반부터 숫자놀음으로 알아서 -.-;;

[Finley]

훔 이번시즌 론도의 수비력을 개인적으로 상당히 높게 평가하고 있는데 홀링거씨도 언급해주니 좀 고맙네요...론도가 PG라인에서 활발하게 움직이며 수비하는 능력이 매우 좋습니다. 운동량이 많아서 스위치 디펜스든 1:1대인마크든 찰거머리같이 따라다니고요, 특히 올스타급 PG와 대결해도 일정 이상 점수를 안내주던 일이 많았습니다.

[캠프만세]

베티에가 슈가인가요?

[천사 가을]

이사람 글에의하면 코비는 수비팀 탈락이네요??? 참 가지가지 한다는

[코비8]

이사람 보면 코비 좀 싫어하죠 음 저야 워낙 팬이기땜에 퍼스트팀이길 원하긴 하지만 부상땜에 좀 어려울거라고 생각은했지만 써드까지 밀린다고 생각하지 않는데;;;; 좀 이상하긴 하네요 쩝;;;;그닥 신경 쓸 의견은 아닌데 참;;;;

[Make & Take It]

... 키언 둘링에서부터 안봤다. 이건 뭐 (-_- ;; 주전도 못뛰는 선수를 All-Defensive 팀에 넣는 센스는 머니?

[Make & Take It]

다시 보니 휴스턴 벤치 척 헤이즈도 있네요...;;

[PP.34]

둘링에서 응?

[[LAL]trashtalk]

아무리 중립적으로 보려 해도, Hollinger는 당췌 자기가 만든 공식을 너무 신봉하고 맹신해서, 설득력도 떨어지고, 솔직히 개인적으로도 너무 싫어집니다. 이 사람, 농구나 할 줄 아는지 궁금해요(농구를 잘하고 못하고 보다도...그냥...이해를 하는건지 아님 그냥 Stat만 분석하는건지)...Hollinger에 대한 Background info있으신 분....?

[White Pippen]

아주 주관적인 평가군요.

[Third Eye]

배티에가 없다니...

[[LAL]코비+바이넘좋아]

있어요 그것도 퍼스트에 ㅋㅋ

[Third Eye]

어제 언뜻 봤을때는 배티에가 없었는데, 퍼스트 SG에 있군요 이힛~

[[LAL]코비+바이넘좋아]

코비가 써드라는건 쫌 오바인듯 ..ㅠㅠ

[muzzle]

홀린저는 굉장히 재미있는 스탯을 많이 만들어내고 그 스탯들을 기반으로 글을 쓰는데 단순 스탯 신봉자라고 보긴 곤란합니다. 만일 스탯에만 의존한다면 위와 같은 순위가 안나오겠죠. 예를 들어 SG에서 베티에는 벨이나 코비 보다도 스탯에서 밀리지만 1위에 올라 있습니다.

[[LAL]trashtalk]

하지만 그 스탯을 근간으로 모든 것을 평가하기는 하지요. 물론 기자로서의 주관과 경험을 이용하여 평가결과에 다소 가감은 하겠지만, 스스로 만든 공식을 깨버리고 주관만을 이용한다면, 자신의 주장을 전면 반박하는 꼴이 될테니...PER을 사용해서 Defensive Ranking을 만들어내는지는 모르겠지만, 자신의 PER공식과 어느 정도 일맥 상통해야 하겠죠...너무 황당한 선수가 Defence First Team에 나오면 머쩍으니...조금의 주관은 포함하겠죠...그러면 결과적으로 자신의 공식에 맹점을 인정하는건 아닐런지...혼자 썰풉니다...

[[LAL]trashtalk]

물론 그의 기자로서의 가치, 통계학자와 스포츠 분석가로서의 가치를 인정 받았으니, 그리고 그러한 공식들이, 왠만큼 팬들이 생각하는 주관적인 랭킹에 부합 된다고 생각하니 ESPN에서 일하겠지만, 그를 싫어하는 ESPN내부의 기자들...특히 (제가 제일 좋아하는 Bill Simmons) 농구 기자들의 주장에 저는 동의 합니다. 스포츠 선수를 이런 식으로 공식화해서 계산을 하기에는, 그들의 열정과 인내와 노력을 평가할 수 없고, 정신적인, 형이하학적인 요소들을 배재한체 평가할 수는 없다는 것이죠...결국...저같은 사람들에게는 씹을거리가 되는 기자라 봅니다...

[ㆀ당신의 능력을 보여줘ㆀ]

이 뭥미??????

[디트로이트피스톤스]

론도 수비가 천시 보다 괜찮은가요? ...

[V4 밥수라]

he remains among the cream of the crop on D 요고 어떻게 해석하죠?

[[LAL]trashtalk]

Cream of the Crop, 혹은 Creme de la Creme이라고 한 집단 중에 가장 위에 있는, 음식물 위에 떠있는 거품(크림) 을 위미하고요...D는 Defence를 의미하니...그는 수비에서는 최상의 대열에 서있다...라고 하시면 무난..

[The_Feeling]

론도가 수비가 좋긴 좋습니다.내쉬,크리스 폴,아이버슨,길교주 등이 론도 만나서 꽤 고전했죠.실제로 론도가 30점이상 준 PG는 딱 1명입니다.데론 윌리엄스.2:2 수비가 약한면이 조금 있는데 최근엔 그것조차 좋아지는것 같더군요.물론 아직 키드나 천시같은 선수에겐 거리가 있다곤 생각은 합니다만..

[[LAL]trashtalk]

still are many dark corners....라고 했듯이...공식화 해서...Science more than art....로 과학적/수학적으로/Stat만으로 수비력을 평가하려 한다면...물론 한 공식에 절대 평가를 해서 순위를 결정할 수는 있겠지만, 너무나도 집어내기 힘든 부분(Dark Corners)도 많죠...결국...완벽하지 않은....절반의 순위네요...

[The-Chosen-One]

브롱이가 Third team 에도 없다는건 말도 안되죠. 장난하나?

[What!?]

2222 개질라의 미칠듯한 운동능력 수비!

[Kanoth]

뭐냐저건 =_=;; 론도가 수비는 좋다만.... 당장 폴만해도 론도보단 낫지 않은가 =_=

[레인맨]

이분쫌 짱인듯.ㅋㅋ

[양은냄비]

헤이즈가 음... 이상한데요

[Sendoh]

론도 좀 짱인듯.....

[What!?]

론도가 엄청 고 평가를 받네요... 코비를 밀어내고!ㄷㄷㄷ 근데 CP3가 없네요? 설마 CP3를 단순히 스틸 숫자가 높아서 수비를 잘하는 선수라고 생각하시는 분들이 있을까요? cp3 정말 포지션을 가리지 않고 쏙쏙 다 스틸..ㄷㄷㄷ 그것도 패싱라인 스틸도 아니고 그냥 공을 잡고 있는 상태에서도... 더군다나 코비,피어스,카터같은 슈퍼스타들도 예외없이 당한...

[리바짱 벤!!]

아~~둘링 세컨도 놀라운데 론도가 퍼스트~~어처구니가 없구나~~수비팀에 언급될만한 수비실력(리그 PG 수비 탑 5)엔 아직 한참 이르지 못했다 보여지는데...올 시즌 프린스도 영~~부진한데 퍼스트라니~~~~~~~~뭔 생각으로 선정한건지.....