Re:USCIS data analysis (미이민국 테이터 분석) - 해석판입니다.

[KissKiss]

USCIS data analysis

USCIS Data Analysis

November 23, 2009

CONTENTS:

Overview.. 2

Purpose of this document 2

Acronyms Used.. 2

Sources of Information.. 3

EB Categories. 3

Visa spillage rules. 4

EB Category Analysis. 6

EB1 – Analysis. 6

EB2 - ROW – Analysis. 6

EB2 - China – Analysis. 7

EB2 – India – Analysis. 8

Important Considerations for EB2 Visas  9

EB3 - ROW – Analysis. 10

EB3 - China – Analysis. 11

EB3 – India -- Analysis. 12

Future Trends and Recommendations. 14

Chapter

1

Overview

Purpose of this document

Long delays in issuance of green cards and never progressing visa bulletin dates have become a norm today, with delays stretching to 10-20 years for retrogressed countries like India and China.  The recent data released by the USCIS confirm‎!s this theory

This document will provide analysis of the data provided by USCIS so that the EB community can have an idea on future Visa Bulletin date movements, visa number usage and a general idea about the backlog situation.  It also provides for recommendations to the USCIS to overcome some of the problems identified in this analysis.

이글의 목적

그린카드 발급과 절대 진행하지 않는 비자불러틴의 오랜기다림은 오늘날 일반적인 일이 되었습니다. india나 china 같이 길게 10~20년의 후퇴도 함께 말입니다. 최근의 uscis 발표한 데이터가 이러한 이론을 뒷받침해줍니다.

이 글은 uscis가 제공한 데이터를 분석해서 취업이민 신청자들이 앞으로 있을 미래의  비자숫자 사용과 일반적인 적체상황같은 비자불러틴의 움직임을 이해할수 있기 위함입니다.  이글은 또한 uscis 에게 이러한 분석에서 드러나는 몇몇문제점을을 극복하기위한 추천도 제공합니다.

Acronyms Used

ROW – Rest of World (Countries other than China, India, Mexico, Philippines)

CIS – Citizenship and Immigration Services

DOL – US Department of Labor

EB – Employment Based

INA – Immigration and Naturalization Act

IV – Immigration Voice

PERM - Program Electronic Review Management system

Vertical Spillover – Visa numbers using this rule will go from the unused numbers from one category to the next for the same country/ROW.  Eg: If EB1 is current for ROW, and have unused numbers, it will go to EB2 ROW and then to EB3 ROW.  Vertical spillover is also given at the end of the year.

Horizontal Spillover – Unused visa numbers go from one category to the next without the restriction of it being to the same country/ROW.  Eg: If EB1 is current for ROW, and have unused numbers, it will go to EB2_India, as it is the country with the most severe backlog, and then to EB2 China as it is the next country that is affected with backlogs.  The horizontal spillover is supposed to be quarterly.

이 단어의 뜻

ROW : 4개국을 제외한 나머지 국가

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IV : (어떤 이민단체 종류의 하나라고 생각합니다)

Vertical Spillover : 1,2순위에서 사용못한 비자개수를 2,3 순위에서 사용하도록 한것입니다.

Horizontal Spillover : 같은 순위에서 사용못한 비자개수를 다른나라에서 사용할수 있게하는것입니다. 이것은 분기별로 될것입니다.

Limitations of Data

• ·         USCIS acknowledges that the I-485 pending data that was provided earlier in September is not accurate.
• ·         Exactly how many cases are pending by country of chargeability, or by each of the EB categories is not available.
• ·         The percentage of visas that are taken by consular processing is not available.  For the purpose of this report, we have assumed 15%
• ·          Application of both vertical and horizontal spillover is not transparent.

데이터의 한계

uscis는 지난9월에 발표한 i-485 대기자 통계가 정확하지않다는 것을 알고있다

얼마나 많은 케이스가 국가별 혹은 카테고리별로 대기중인지 정확하지않다

영사관에서 진행중인 받은 비자 퍼센티지가 유용하지 않다.. 이 글의 목적을 위해서 15%로 가정한다

vertical 과 horizontal spillover 의 신청이 투명하지않다

Sources of Information

Pending I485 inventory information is provided by the recent release of data by the CIS.  

Department of Labor provided the permanent labor certification statistics and from Foreign Labor Certification Data Center http://flcdatacenter.com/caseperm.aspx

INA

이정보의 출처

미이민국과 노동부와 INA라는 뜻입니다.

EB Categories

Immigration and Naturalization Act defines the skilled categories into the following areas:

Employment First Preference (E1):

This category receives 28.6% of the yearly worldwide limit, and requires applicants to be, persons of extraordinary ability in the field of sciences, arts, education, business or athletics.  They need to have extensive documentation showing sustained national or international acclaim and recognition in their field of expertise.  This category also includes outstanding professors and researchers with at least 3 years of experience in teaching or research and who are recognized internationally.  Also includes certain executives and managers who have been employed at least one of the three preceding years by the overseas affiliate, parent, subsidiary or branch of the US employer.  No labor certification is required for this category; however, the prospective employer must provide a job offer and file a petition with the USCIS.

Employment Second Preference (E2):

This category includes professionals holding advanced degrees or persons of exceptional ability in the arts, sciences or business and receives 28.6% of the yearly worldwide limit plus any unused employment first preference visas.  This category includes professionals holding advanced degrees or a bachelor’s degree and at least 5 years of progressive experience in the profession.  All second preference applicants must have a labor certification approved by the DOL or establish that they qualify for one of the shortage occupations in the labor market.  A job offer is required and the US employer must file a petition on behalf of the applicant. Only exception to this rule is for applicants with a national interest waiver. If an applicant can prove the case for NIW, they are exempted from requiring to have a DOL approved PERM certification. The preference category will still be E2 for them.

Employment Third Preference (E3):

This category includes skilled workers, professionals holding baccalaureate degrees; they receive 28.6% of the yearly worldwide limit plus any unused employment first and second preference visas.  This category includes persons with baccalaureate degree and/or to be capable of performing a job requiring at least 2 years of training or experience.  All Third Preference applicants require an approved I-140 petition filed by the prospective employer. All such workers require a labor certification, or Schedule A designation, or evidence that they qualify for one of the shortage occupations in the Labor Market Information Pilot Program.

Employment Fourth Preference (E4):

This category relates to special immigrants such as broadcasters in the US but employed by international broadcasting bureau, or Minister of Religion, employees or former employees of the US government abroad and the like. This category receives 7.1% of the yearly worldwide limit.

Employment Fifth Preference (E5):

Employment Creation Investors receive 7.1 percent of the yearly worldwide limit. All applicants must file a Form I-526, Immigrant Petition by Alien Entrepreneur with USCIS. To qualify, an alien must invest between U.S. $500,000 and $1,000,000, depending on the employment rate in the geographical area

취업이민 카테고리

1,2,3,4,5 순위를 정의한 글입니다. 별로 중요하지는 않습니다.

Visa spillage rules

There is a supply of 140,000 permanent visas in the EB category for a year. EB1, EB2, EB3 have an equal share of 28.6% or 40,040 visas per year.  There is a 7% cap per country on the overall legal immigration including family and skill based. This amounts to 25,620 visas for a single country in EB category. There is a rule to cap 27% of a category in a quarter. So in the first quarter only 10,811 (rounded) visas can be given in any of the categories.

If the supply exceeds demand capped by per country, then per country quota is relaxed to the matching ratio of family based approvals. For practical consideration, it means that the spillover visas beyond 25,620 to a single country can’t be given in the first 3 quarters. The last quarter spillover will need to be first in first out for all the retrogressed countries. This should not limit immigrants from other countries to use up their quota.

Following is the rule from INA Section 201to maintain ratio. There is a different section to override this logic in the last quarter of any calendar year.

(e) Special Rules for Countries at Ceiling. - If it is determined that the total number of immigrant visas made available under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area will exceed the numerical limitation specified in subsection (a)(2) in any fiscal year, in determining the allotment of immigrant visa numbers to natives under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203, visa numbers with respect to natives of that state or area shall be allocated (to the extent practicable and otherwise consistent with this section and section 203) in a manner so that

(1) the ratio of the visa numbers made available under section 203(a) to the visa numbers made available under section 203(b) is equal to the ratio of the worldwide level of immigration under section 201(c) to such level under section 201 (d);

(2) except as provided in subsection (a)(4), the proportion of the visa numbers made available under each of paragraphs (1) through (4) of section 203(a) is equal to the ratio of the total number of visas made available under the respective paragraph to the total number of visas made available under section 203(a), and

(3) 3/ except as provided in subsection (a)(5), the proportion of the visa numbers made available under each of paragraphs (1) through (5) of section 203(b) is equal to the ratio of the total number of visas made available under the respective paragraph to the total number of visas made available under section 203(b).

Nothing in this subsection shall be construed as limiting the number of visas that may be issued to natives of a foreign state or dependent area under section 203(a) or 203(b) if there is insufficient demand for visas for such natives under section 203(b) or 203(a), respectively, or as limiting the number of visas that may be issued under section 203(a)(2)(A) pursuant to subsection (a)(4)(A).

Nothing in this subsection shall be construed as limiting the number of visas that may be issued to natives of a foreign state or dependent area under section 203(a) or 203(b) if there is insufficient demand for visas for such natives under section 203(b) or 203(a) , respectively, or as limiting the number of visas that may be issued under section 203(a)(2)(A) pursuant to subsection (a)(4)(A).

Chapter

2

EB Category Analysis

이것도 그렇게 중요하지 않습니다..카테고리별로 몇%의 할당이 일어나는지 설명한글입니다.

필요없는것은 건너뛰고 우리가 해당되는 곳만 한번 보겠습니다.

 

EB1 – Analysis

EB1 will continue to be current. The reasons are as below.

EB1 is at the top of EB hierarchy. Any overflow from Family Based categories and other EB (EB4 and EB5) categories first goes to EB1.

EB1 was never backlogged really. (this is never oversubscribed  enough) So it was always a first in first out. Last fiscal year there were approximately 38,000 visas consumed worldwide by this category. So the spillover to EB2 was only 2000 visas.

No labor certification – less cycle time from start to finish.

Only limiting factor is CIS processing time for these applicants.

EB2 - ROW – Analysis

EB2 ROW will continue to be current. Reasons as below

Per Country quota doesn’t apply in ROW.  In fact, none of the individual countries ever come close to the 7% per country limit.

It is an observation from multiple employers and senior executives that as a practical matter, DOL doesn’t audit as many EB2 ROW applications as it does for India and China.

Supply beats demand most of the times.  CIS data proves the same point[A1] , as there are cases pending.

EB2 - China – Analysis

 EB2 China will move faster with the numbers given by CIS

EB2 China shares visas with EB2 India after their allotted quota of 9800 in employment and any spill over from family.

Vertical spillover policy helps EB2 China, as EB1 China is current, and the remaining unused numbers are used by EB2 China.

Analysis based on the data provided by USCIS indicates the following trend for EB2-China. These are projected visa bulletin priority date cutoffs and could vary since the effect of Consular Processing has not been factored in.

Visa Bulletin Month	EB2 C Cutoff Dates (No Quarterly Spillover)	EB2 C Cutoff Dates (with Quarterly Spillover)
Jan-10	1-Aug-05	1-Jan-06
Apr-10	15-Sep-05	1-Sep-06
Jul-10	1-Nov-05	1-Mar-07
Oct-10	1-Apr-08	1-Apr-08
Jan-11	1-Aug-08	1-Nov-09
Apr-11	1-Aug-08	1-Jan-10
Jul-11	1-Aug-08	1-May-10
Oct-11	1-Dec-10	1-Oct-10
Jan-12	1-Dec-10	1-Apr-11

 

If USCIS decides to use the visa numbers via quarterly spillovers, the resulting visa date movement would be more predictable (versus periodic spikes) and the chances of visa wastage are minimized.

The graph below shows the projected backlog in months (Y- axis) for EB2 China. It is worth noting that the backlog reductions are much smoother if quarterly spillover is used.

EB2 – India – Analysis

EB2 India is going to move at snail’s pace till July 2010 unless Department of State changes the demand calculation process. Reasons are as below.

Currently, there is no vertical quarterly spillover.

There will be some inter filings from EB3 (since people in EB3 India are waiting for 8+years) and is justified as some of them may have already advanced in their careers to qualify for filing in EB2 category . DOL approvals and CIS reasoning on data after July07 prove this point.

Analysis based on the data provided by USCIS indicates the following trend for EB2-India. These are projected visa bulletin priority date cut offs and could vary since the effect of Consular Processing has not been factored in.

Visa Bulletin Month	EB2 I Cutoff Dates (No Quarterly Spillover)	EB2 I Cutoff Dates (with Quarterly Spillover)
Jan-10	1-Mar-05	1-Jan-06
Apr-10	15-Mar-05	1-Sep-06
Jul-10	15-Mar-05	1-Mar-07
Oct-10	1-Apr-08	1-Apr-08
Jan-11	1-Aug-08	1-Nov-09
Apr-11	1-Aug-08	1-Jan-10
Jul-11	1-Aug-08	1-May-10
Oct-11	1-Dec-10	1-Oct-10
Jan-12	1-Dec-10	1-Apr-11

 

Without any legislative relief or visa recapture, backlog will remain.  The graph below shows the projected backlog in months (Y- axis) for EB2 India. It is worth noting that the backlog reductions are much smoother if quarterly spillover is used. Note that DOL Chicago center was closed around 1st quarter of 2008 and Atlanta never caughtup due to labor disputes on subcontracting till early 2009. Due to massive layoffs, some or most of the jobs that were filed during the recession period could have been withdrawn also in the world wide section.Since we don't have any data after July 2007, this is a good faith estimate. The important point here is that CIS/State also will be in the same situation when they reach 2007 July cutoff date for EB2 India and China and will repeat the mistake of wasting visas. USCIS acknowledges that the I-485 pending data that was provided earlier in September is not accurate

DOL will continue to approve EB2 ROW without much resistance since their audit pattern doesn’t select EB2 ROW frequently. This will continue to create demand in EB2 Row and limit the spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 India.

In this and last fiscal year however due to the employment market conditions and legislative regulations if DOL approval rate reduces in general, this will directly benefit EB2 India from a spillover perspective. DOS could water down these benefits unless they act quickly.

This year per the information provided by DOL, there is a 17% approval rate and average wait time is 6 months.

Important Considerations for EB2 Visas

If Department of State considers this wait time and CIS processing time for I140 as at least 2 months on average, they will need to significantly advance EB2 worldwide dates. The following events could happen otherwise:

Even if a candidate from ROW applies for PERM today from DOL that would qualify for EB2, it will be at least 8 months (July 2010) before this case is documentarily qualified for an immigrant visa. It will usually take 3 months before filing PERM application. This means that this candidate will not be using immigration visa numbers from this year.

So safely assuming there is no demand at all from ROW EB2, there will be approximately 10,811 visas in the first quarter and all these can be allocated to EB2 India and China

This should have moved the EB2 India dates to 2005 mid and China dates to 2005 end.

If the same logic followed for 2nd quarter and consider spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 to EB2, there will be a supply of at least 20,000 visas on the first day of 2nd quarter i.e. Jan 1st of 2010. This should make China unavailable due to per country limit assuming they are getting first shot at the numbers and India gets a second shot.

The same logic in 3rd quarter would make EB2 India unavailable i.e. April 1st of 2010. Otherwise Both India/China can potentially become unavailable due to per country limits in spite of supply of immigration visa numbers availability and demand from applicants.

Unfortunately EB2 India/China will suddenly become current in 4th quarter i.e. July 1st of 2010 to consume all the visas available. But then it will be already too late for those that had not applied for I485 yet, but were within the visa bulletin cutoff dates, since average USCIS processing time for I485 is 6 months and the visa numbers will be wasted (since visa numbers from the current year cannot be rolled over to the following year.)

To avoid the above situation, Dept. of State should not limit them to the demand they have currently, but look at future supply and processing bottlenecks and leave room for a margin of error at CIS without which, history repeats and visa numbers will be wasted

EB3 - ROW – Analysis

EB3 ROW will use their 30K visas this year and will advance to late 2005. We still don’t know how many Consular Processing cases of EB3 are in the queue. If turns out to be huge number then they are going to be moving very slowly.

The table below shows the projected visa bulletin priority date cutoffs for EB3- ROW.

3순위 모든나라(ROW- 인도,필리핀,중국, 멕시코를 제외한 모든국가)는 30000개의 비자숫자를 올해안으로 다쓰고 2005년 후반까지 진전될것입니다. 그러나 우리는 여전히 얼마나 많은 영사관진행 케이스(미국밖에서의 진행케이스)가 3순위에 남아있는지 모릅니다. 만약에 많은 숫자가 CP 케이스라고 한다면 매우 느리게 진행이 될것입니다. 밑의 도표는 예상되는 비자컷오프 ROW 3순위진행을 보여줍니다.

Visa Bulletin Month	EB3 ROW Cutoff Dates (No Quarterly Spillover)	EB3 ROW  Cutoff Dates (with Quarterly Spillover)
Jan-10	1-Apr-04	1-Apr-04
Apr-10	1-Apr-05	1-Apr-05
Jul-10	1-Nov-05	1-Nov-05
Oct-10	1-May-06	1-May-06
Jan-11	1-Oct-06	1-Aug-07
Apr-11	1-Mar-07	1-Jul-08
Jul-11	1-Aug-07	1-Oct-09
Oct-11	1-Jul-10	1-Oct-09
Jan-12	1-Jul-10	1-Nov-09

 

파란색은 분기별로 Spillover가 일어나지 않았을때입니다.

빨간색은 분기별로 Spillover가 일어났을때입니다.

-주- 왼쪽의 세로선은 대기기간을 달(month)로 나타낸것입니다.

EB-3 ROW movement is steady. There will be significant advances to the EB3 ROW dates once the dates for EB2 I/C cross July 2007. This is because, in the time between filing (for post July 2007 I/C) and the time between the cases actually approved (~ 6-9 months), there will be no usage of EB2 I/C numbers, which will directly overflow to EB3 ROW

EB-3 ROW will have a projected backlog of about 2 years (the numbers in the vertical axis are in months) even by end of 2011 (with a very slow economy), unless visa recapture or legislative relief is provided. This data still doesn't include EB3 CP cases which doesn't have priority dates published by State.USCIS acknowledges that the I-485 pending data that was provided earlier in September is not accurate.

3순위 움직임은 꾸준합니다. 만약 EB2의 인도나 중국이 2007년 7월의 우선일자를 넘긴다면 3순위 컷오프일자에서 괌목할만한 전진이 있을것입니다. 왜냐하먼 filing한 기간(2007년 7월이후)사이와 케이스들이 실질적으로 승인된기간(~6-9달정도)사이의 기간때문입니다. 그당시에는 아무 EB2 중국과 인도의사용이 없었기때문에 EB3 에서의 급진전이 있을것입니다.

3순위에서는 2011년 말에는 예상된 2년분정도의 적체가 있을것입니다. 비자숫자의 재사용이나 법제정이 없을시에는.  이 데이터에서는 3순위 우선순위가 발표되지않은 미국외에서의 진행을 포함하지 않습니다. 이민국은 그전에 발표된 9월의 485케이스의 부정확함을 알고 있습니다.

EB3 - China – Analysis

EB3 China dates are referencing to the fact that there are a number of Consular Processing cases. The projected visa bulletin priority date cutoffs for EB3 China are below:

Visa Bulletin Month	EB3 C Cutoff Dates (No Quarterly Spillover)	EB3 C  Cutoff Dates (with Quarterly Spillover)
Jan-10	1-Jun-03	1-Jun-03
Apr-10	1-Dec-03	1-Dec-03
Jul-10	1-Aug-04	1-Aug-04
Oct-10	15-Dec-04	15-Dec-04
Jan-11	15-Sep-05	15-Sep-05
Apr-11	1-Apr-06	1-Apr-06
Jul-11	1-Oct-06	1-Oct-06
Oct-11	1-May-07	1-Mar-07
Jan-12	1-Feb-08	1-Aug-07

Alongside EB3 India, EB3 China has significant backlog. This is because these are the 2 countries that have had a huge demand in the 2002-2006 timeframe. And since there is no spillover of visa numbers into this category (any current spillover is consumed by EB2 I/C and if by accident there are some numbers left, EB3-Row will use them up), there is no hope of relief without visa recapture or legislative relief. The graph below shows the projected backlog – even though it is projected to reduce (primarily because of the slowdown in the economy), the wait times will be in excess of 4 years even by 2012 (vertical axis represents months).

 

EB3 – India -- Analysis

There is really nothing significant to write about EB3 India. It is more of the same as EB3- China, just worse.

The one thing that does stand out for EB3 India is that they definitely have a lot of Consular Processing cases with priority date of April 2001 – we need DOS to share this information so that applicants can make informed decision. The following table shows the projected visa bulletin priority date cutoffs

Visa Bulletin Month	EB3 I Cutoff Dates (No Quarterly Spillover)	EB3 I Cutoff Dates (with Quarterly Spillover)
Jan-10	1-Dec-01	1-Dec-01
Apr-10	1-Feb-02	1-Feb-02
Jul-10	1-Apr-02	1-Apr-02
Oct-10	15-Apr-02	15-Apr-02
Jan-11	15-May-02	15-May-02
Apr-11	1-Jul-02	1-Mar-03
Jul-11	1-Sep-02	1-Jul-03
Oct-11	15-Jan-03	1-Oct-03
Oct-12	1-May-03	1-Jan-04

 

Even though the effect of retrogression is expected to reduce from the current 8+ years, it is still going to hover around 5 years in 2012 (assuming a weak economy and minimal filings). If any of these economic dynamics changed, then it can only get worse. Really, the only option for EB3 India and China are visa recapture and legislative changes. This data still doesn't include EB3 CP cases which doesn't have priority dates published by State.USCIS acknowledges that the I-485 pending data that was provided earlier in September is not accurate.

Chapter

3

Future Trends and Recommendations

• 1.      Department of State should publish a dash board to reflect the demand by priority date in the same line as the CIS report for Family and Skill based categories with monthly updates along with the Visa Bulletin to make the process more transparent.
• 2.      Department of State should include Department of Labor’s statistics and approval trends along with USCIS processing time to estimate correct priority date cutoffs. If the cases cannot be sorted correctly due to the 15% allocations to the consular posts, then the option of publishing a separate visa bulletin for consular posts should be considered.
• 3.      USCIS should publish the statistics of I-140, I-526 and R1 petitions to give correct trends for demand of immigration visa numbers.
• 4.      Department of Labor should provide the PERM approval reports on a monthly basis and also include the priority date, country of chargeability and approval date.
• 5.      Department of State should publish the global demand of pending cases at consular posts to augment CIS data.
• 6.      USCIS should allocate spillover visas per quarter instead of per year to avoid wasting visa numbers at the end of the year due to cases not being ready for adjudication and to reduce the spikes in visa allocation.
• 7.      There were legislative changes that increased the number of H visas between 2001-2004 without any corresponding increase in the number of permanent residency visas. This is the prime cause for the backlog in the EB numbers today. The backlog is more severe for those countries that used up the majority of these H visas (India and China, in that order). There should be a corresponding rise in the number of Employment based Green Cards to cover this surge or there should be a legislative reform to get over this huge backlog.
• 8.      Future increases in H visas should be accompanied by a corresponding increase (by a factor of 2.2 to account for the primary applicant’s family members) in the number of Employment Based Green cards so that we never have this serious a problem.

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 Copyright Immigrationvoice.org 2009

[KissKiss]

3순위 숙련에 관한 내용이군요. 여전히 미국외에서 진행하는 케이스는 뜨거운 감자가 될것입니다..아무도 모르기 때문이지요..여기서는 15%로 잡았습니다. 하지만 우리나라 같은경우는 오히려 비숙련에서는 50%가 넘게 대기하고 있습니다.

[도평]

감사함니다 KISS님 정말감사드림니다.

[slowly]

긴 영문을 금방 그렇게 해석해주시니..고맙고.. 한편 부럽습니다. 이렇게 애써주시는 덕분에 이 방이 그럭저럭 운영되는 것 같습니다.

[멀티파워]

잘 읽었습니다 감사합니다

[트윈파]

고맙습니다. 많은 돈(시간)과 배려를 앆지 않으신 KissKiss님께 경의를 표합니다. 행복하십시요. 그나저나 숙련과 비숙련의 차이를 몇년으로 봐야할지에 따라 희비가 엊갈리는 자료라 기대는 되지만 마음이 그냥 그렇습니다. 좋은 쪽으로 생각할까 합니다.