1+ Three, 47% FG club members in '07-08'

[the MVP]

보통 많은 3점을 던진다면 그건 FG%의 악영향을 미치게되지요.
올시즌 평균 1개 이상의 3점을 성공+ 47% 이상의 FG%를 기록한 선수는 13명 밖에 없습니다.

판타지 하시는분들은 유용하게 쓰실 수 있을거 같읍니다.

그리고 07-08시즌 이 클럽에 아쉽게 들지못한 선수들 명단도 함께 나와있네요.

RotoEvil's exclusive 1+ Three, 47% FG club

9/21/08 - by Eric Wong AKA RotoEvil

What do Brent Barry, Steve Nash, and Mike Miller have in common? They're the only 2+ Three, 50% FG Diamond club members in NBA history.

The 3-point shot was adopted by the NBA prior to the 1979-80 season, but the average team made just .78 threes per game that year. Now, the trifecta is a vital part of today's NBA, as the average team made 6.55 per game in '07-08.

However, when you attempt a lot of threes, your FG% usually pays the price. This is especially true in fantasy hoops, which is why I created the 1+ Three, 47% FG club. In '07-08, only 13 players made the cut. The year before, there were only 12. To qualify, a player must play in 40+ games, average 1+ three, and shoot 47% or better from the field.

You can view last year's article here, but below is my new & improved version. First, I will list the 13 players who made the club last season, show what I wrote about them a year ago, recap what they did in '07-08, and then predict how those stats may change in the upcoming season. After that, I will analyze the 8 leading candidates to join the club in '08-09. These players just missed the cut last season and/or have been club members in the past.

*EXCLUSIVE* to my NBA Fantasy Draft Guide will be an article that identifies 10 not-so-obvious candidates to join the club in '08-09. I'll explain why these lesser-known players have a good chance of making the club, and how you can apply this knowledge to help you win your league.

Club member = 1+ Three and 47% FG
GOLD club member = 1+ Three and 47% FG (2+ times)
PLATINUM club member = 1+ Three and 47% FG (5+ times)
DIAMOND club member = 2+ Threes and 50% FG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1+ Three, 47% FG club members in '07-08

Steve Nash - 2.21 threes, 50.4% FG

(DIAMOND club member: 2 times + PLATINUM club member: 6 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.05 threes, 53.2% FG in '06-07):
Steve Nash already gets PLATINUM club status for making the club 5+ times, but he also gets DIAMOND club status for achieving 2+ threes (2.05) and a FG% of 50% or better (53.2%) last season. How rare is this feat? Well, since the inception of the 3-point line prior to the '79-80 season, a player has made 2+ threes per game in a season (40 games min.) 153 different times. But prior to Nash in '06-07, there was only ONE previous Diamond Club member...

RESULT:
Nash made the Diamond club once again by making a career-high 179 threes in 81 games and shooting over 50% from the field for a remarkable 4th year in a row. He finished 2nd in 3P%, 5th in FT%, and 3rd in TS% (his 64.1% True Shooting trailed only Amare Stooudemire & Josh Childress), and he'll go down as one of the most accurate & efficient shooters of all time if he can keep it up. But with fewer minutes in store for '08-09, can he still make 2 treys per game?

Brent Barry - 1.55 threes, 48.1% FG

(DIAMOND club member: 1 time + PLATINUM club member: 5 times)

What I said BEFORE last season ( 1.71 threes, 47.5% FG in '06-07):
In 2001-02, Brent Barry made 2.02 threes per game and shot 50.8% from the field for Seattle, making him the very first 2+ THREE and 50% FG DIAMOND CLUB member. In case you don't remember, Barry was a fantasy monster that season: 14.4 points, 5.4 boards, 5.3 assists, 1.8 steals, .5 blocks, 2.0 threes, 50.8% FG, and 84.6% FT. He came close to ANOTHER Diamond season in '03-04, when he shot 50.4% from the field but made "only" 1.93 threes per game. Despite being 35 years old and playing limited minutes, Barry made the 1+ Threes and 47% FG club AGAIN last season. He won't play enough to warrant drafting him, but if you need some threes in a pinch and don't want to hurt your team's FG%, then don't forget about Bones!

RESULT:
Barry only played in 31 games last season, but I'll throw him a bone and keep him in the club. I mean, how could I kick out the 1st Diamond club member? Plus, he made 1.55 treys in just 17.9 minutes per game, which translates to a career-high 3.1 threes per 36 minutes. He didn't play enough to qualify, but his 65.5% True Shooting mark would have ranked 2nd just behind Amare's 65.6% TS, and it was the 5th time in his career that he posted a TS% of 65% or better. On the All-Time records list, Barry currently ranks 12th in threes made (1346) and 16th in 3P% (40.6%), and the Rockets believe he has at least a couple more solid years in him (they signed him to a 2-year deal). With Yao, T-Mac, and Artest commanding most of the attention in Houston, Barry should get plenty of open looks in '08-09. Again, he's not worth drafting, but if Alston or T-Mac goes down, don't be afraid to swoop him up.

Mike Miller - 2.21 threes, 50.2% FG

(DIAMOND club member: 1 time + GOLD club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.89 threes, 46.0% FG in '06-07):
Miller came close to a DIAMOND season in '04-05, when he shot 50.5% from the field while making 1.84 threes per game. Last year he blew away his career high by making 2.89 threes per game (2nd behind Ray Allen), but he was 1 percentage point below the club requirement. Miller's worst shooting month was November (42.6% FG), when Pau Gasol was injured. With a healthy Pau commanding double teams inside and newcomer Mike Conley penetrating and creating, Miller should get more open looks in '07-08, enabling him to make the club a 2nd time.

RESULT:
Not only did Miller make the club, but he became just the 3rd DIAMOND club member in NBA history! It was an impressive season because he didn't get much help from his teammates. Conley wasn't that effective as a rookie and Gasol got traded to the Lakers, leaving Rudy Gay as the only other offensive threat. As a result, Miller's points, assists, and threes fell. After attempting 7.1 treys per game in '06-07, he attempted just 5.1 in '07-08, but he still shot a rock solid 43.2% from beyond the arc. Even more impressive was his FG%. He shot over 48% from the field in EVERY month of the season, which is remarkable consistency for anyone, let alone a shooter on a bad team. Miller's new teammates in Minnesota should give him a little more help, and with Al Jefferson commanding double teams, his threes could improve in '08-09. It's tough to project Miller's stats because they fluctuate so much from year to year, but I'm quite confident that he'll make this club once again.

LeBron James - 1.51 threes, 48.4% FG

(GOLD club member: 4 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.27 threes, 47.6% FG in '06-07):
LeBron's numbers were down a little bit last season, but he still managed to make the club for the 3rd year in a row. He has shot 47-48% in each of the past 3 seasons, but it seems like just a matter of time before he starts shooting over 50% from the field. In the recent FIBA Americas tournament, he shot an insane 76% from the field (73-96) to go along with 2.30 threes per game. This is the perfect example of why LeBron is the leading candidate to become the next DIAMOND CLUB member.

RESULT:
LeBron bumped his threes per game back over 1.5 while shooting a career-high 48.4% from the field last season. Which is pretty impressive considering he made just 31.5% of his 3-pointers. This means that he made 53.1% of his 2-point attempts, and from a fantasy perspective, I would like to see him take fewer threes so that he can finally reach the coveted 50% FG mark. Here are a few reasons why that may happen in '08-09: Last season, Daniel Gibson exploded out of the gates, making 105 out of 225 three-point attempts (46.7% 3P) in 46 games before the All-Star break. Unfortunately, he suffered a severely sprained ankle in February and shot just 13-43 (30.2% 3P) from beyond the arc in 12 games after the break. This relates to LeBron, because he attempted 4.57 treys per game before the break, but 5.14 afterwards (when Gibson was injured and ineffectve). Boobie is a much more accurate outside shooter, so if he can stay healthy, that means fewer 3-point attempts for Bron-Bron. Of course, we must also factor in the addition of point guard Mo Williams. Mo's solid ball handling abilities should allow LeBron to play off the ball more often this season, theoretically resulting in higher quality looks + less energy for James to expend. Williams is also a good outside shooter, as evidenced by his 1.4 made threes and 38.5% 3P last season. What does all of this mean? I'm projecting LeBron to make & take fewer threes in '08-09, but don't be surprised if he shoots 50% from the field as a result.

Dirk Nowitzki - 1.03 threes, 47.9% FG

(GOLD club member: 4 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (.92 threes, 50.2% FG in '06-07):
Dirk has made the club 3 times before, but missed out last year because he only made 72 threes in 78 games. This marked the 1st time since his rookie season that he failed to make over 1 three a game. His shooting %'s were actually career-highs across the board (50.2% FG, 41.6% 3P, 90.4% FT); he simply didn't attempt as many threes as usual. If he can get just a few more threes and blocks, Dirk will re-join BOTH clubs in '07-08.

RESULT:
Dirk fell 6 blocks short of re-joining the other club, but he made just enough threes to make this one. However, he got a huge boost from Jason Kidd. Before Dallas traded for the future Hall of Fame point guard, Dirk was averaging just .8 threes per game on a meager 29.1% 3P and 46.9% FG shooting. But after Kidd's arrival, Dirk made 1.6 treys per game while shooting an impressive 48.1% 3P and 50.1% FG. From '99-'06, Nowitzki was a lock for 1.3-1.9 made threes per game, so it was nice to see him return to his old form. I'm projecting a healthy stat increase for him in '08-09, and I'd be shocked if he's not a PLATINUM club member next year.

Shawn Marion - 1.05 threes, 50.8% FG

(GOLD club member: 4 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.00 threes, 52.4% FG in '06-07):
Marion made the club for the 3rd year in a row, just squeezing by with 80 threes in 80 games. His FG% has been above 52% for two years in a row now, to go along with his stellar FT%. To show how versatile and valuable Marion is, he earned the distinction of being the only player in the NBA to be a member of BOTH the 1+ Three, 47% FG Club and the 1+ Block, 77% FT Club last season.

RESULT:
The Matrix averaged 1+ three for the 6th year in a row and shot over 47% from the field for the 4th year in a row, but he's no lock for the club in '08-09. After being traded to Miami, he made just .5 threes per and shot just 45.9% FG in 16 games. The FG% should improve a bit, but it seems unlikely that Marion will attempt 3-4 threes per game like he used to do in Phoenix. Additionally, the last time he shot over 34% 3P was back in '02-03, so don't draft Marion expecting a ton of threes this season.

Anthony Parker - 1.62 threes, 47.6% FG

(GOLD club member: 2 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.58 threes, 47.7% FG in '06-07):
Parker's return to the NBA was a success, as he was a very efficient scorer for Toronto last season. His 44.1% on threes placed him 5th in the NBA, and was good for 1.58 made threes per game. The arrival of Kapono may take some three-point attempts away from Parker, but he will still have a very good chance of making the club for his 2nd year in a row.

RESULT:
Talk about consistent. Parker's '07-08 numbers were almost identical to his '06-07 stats in nearly every single category. His 3P% fell .3%, which was still good for 7th in the NBA, and his FG% fell .1%, which was more than good enough for him to become a Gold club member. With Jermaine O'Neal joining Chris Bosh inside the arc, Parker will continue to do his thing on the outside. Expect more of the same in '08-09.

Chris Paul - 1.15 threes, 48.8% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.78 threes, 43.7% FG in '06-07):
CP3 shot under 44% FG and made less than .8 treys per game in each of his first 2 seasons, so I didn't consider him last year.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
What a difference a year makes! He shot nearly 37% from 3-point land after shooting just 28% 3P as a rookie, and his FG% soared well past 50% in the second half. While one might expect that stellar FG% to decline a bit in '08-09, he's so unstoppable right now that there's no reason to think he can't duplicate those numbers.

Deron Williams - 1.01 threes, 50.7% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.03 threes, 45.6% FG in '06-07):
I failed to include Deron last year because he seemed iffy in both categories.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Deron just barely made the club by making 83 threes in 82 games, but his FG% was rock solid all season long. He shot 49% or better from the field in every month except for April, and he shot a sparkling 52.7% FG at home. For '08-09, I'm projecting a few more threes, but his FG% seems likely to fall.

Mike Dunleavy Jr. - 2.01 threes, 47.6% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.85 threes, 45.2% FG in '06-07):
In 5 NBA seasons, Mike D. had never shot 45.5% FG, so he wasn't a likely candidate for the club.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Dunleavy's shooting stroke was finally on display, as he blew away his previous highs by shooting 47.6% FG, 42.4% 3P, and 83.4% FT. He was also one of just 18 players to make over 2 threes per game. He's found a home in Indiana, but I have a hard time believing he can shoot that well again. If he had shot a more modest (and more likely for '08-09) 40% 3P, his FG% would have been under 47 and he wouldn't have made the club.

Mo Williams - 1.35 threes, 48.0% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.16 threes, 44.6% FG in '06-07):
In 4 NBA seasons, Mo had never shot 45% FG before and had shot over 35% 3P just once.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Mo shot a career-best 38.5% from beyond and the arc and a solid 51.2% on twos, but he has totally new surroundings this season. Michael Redd is a fine scorer, but he's no LeBron James, which means Williams should get more open shots this year. I'm projecting him to set a career-high in threes made while shooting over 47% FG for the second year in a row.

Maurice Evans - 1.08 threes, 48.1% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.63 threes, 43.2% FG in '06-07):
Evans was miles away from making the club in '06-07, so he got no consideration.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
After starting the season 9-for-28 from the field in 7 games with the Lakers, Evans was traded to Orlando and got a huge boost in playing time. He clearly benefited from Dwight Howard double-teams, knocking down 39.6% of his treys and making 1.8 per 36 minutes. Now he's in Atlanta, where he'll get fewer open looks and likely struggle to shoot that well again.

Linas Kleiza - 1.19 threes, 47.2% FG

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.05 threes, 42.2% FG in '06-07):
Kleiza shot just 42.2% from the field so he wasn't considered last year.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
When you analyze his stats, it's shocking that Kleiza even made the club. His 3P% fell from 37.6% to just 33.9% last season, yet his FG% skyrocketed from 42.2% to 47.2%. That's because he shot a whopping 56.8% on 2-pointers! In 13 starts last year, he made 1.5 threes and shot 47.8% FG, and since he's due for more minutes with Najera gone, I see him making the club a second time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leading candidates to join the club in '08-09

Jason Terry - 1.66 threes, 46.7% FG

(previous GOLD club member: 3 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.00 threes, 48.4% FG in '06-07):
Terry made the club for the 3rd year in a row. Ever since being traded to Dallas before the '04-05 season, his shooting %'s have been phenomenal: over 47% FG, 41% 3P, and 80% FT every year. All fantasy owners should welcome that type of consistency. Terry also made 2 threes per game for the 2nd year in a row and the 4th time overall and was 6th in 3P% at 43.8%. Two more times and he'll be a PLATINUM Club member.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Terry's 3P% finally dropped below 40%, dragging his FG% under 47% by a slight margin. He was much more accurate starting (34 games, 48.0% FG) than coming off the bench (48 games, 45.7% FG), so whether or not Rick Carlisle decides to start him could be big. His previous shooting %'s are too good to ignore, so I'll predict a return to the club in '08-09.

Leandro Barbosa - 2.00 threes, 46.2% FG

(previous GOLD club member: 2 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.38 threes, 47.6% FG in '06-07):
Despite coming off the bench most of the time, Barbosa has made the club two years in a row now. He finished 6th in the league in threes made per game (2.38) and 7th in 3P% (43.4%). The Blur will be a PLATINUM CLUB member in no time.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Much like Terry, Barbosa's 3P% dropped under 40% and his FG% slipped under 47% for the first time in 4 years. However, he still managed to make an impressive 2 treys in under 30 minutes per game. In '08-09, he may not have as much offensive freedom under new coach Terry Porter, so his FG% could drop even more.

Manu Ginobili - 2.11 threes, 46.0% FG

(previous CLUB member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.71 threes, 46.4% FG in '06-07):
Ginobili made the club in '04-05, when he shot 47.1% from the field and made 1.31 threes per game, but his FG% has dipped below 47% the past 2 seasons. Manu made an impressive 39.6% of his three point shots last year, but a large portion of his FG attempts were 3-point attempts, which will make it hard for him to make the club a 2nd time.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Sure enough, Ginobili attempted a career-high 5.3 threes per game, which made it awfully tough for him to make the club. Still, he shot 47.7% FG after the break, and if you throw out his awful December (36.3%) when he was battling injuries, he would have made the club. He's likely to miss the start of the season, but if he returns healthy, it wouldn't surprise me if he made the club again.

Brandon Roy - .99 threes, 45.4% FG

What I said BEFORE last season (.96 threes, 45.6% FG in '06-07):
It was a tale of two halves for Roy in his rookie season. Before the break, he averaged 15.4 points, 3.4 dimes, and .74 threes while shooting 43.4% from the field. Very respectable numbers for a rookie. But after the break, he averaged 18.7 points, 4.9 dimes, and 1.30 threes while shooting 48.5% from the field. Roy just needed some time to get comfortable, and now he's the leader of a talented, young Portland squad. As long as he doesn't force up too many bad shots, Roy will be joining the club in '07-08.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
From a FG% and threes made standpoint, Roy put up nearly identical stats the past 2 seasons. He's also shot the ball much better at home (47.1% and 48.1% FG) than on the road (44.0% and 43.0% FG). Of course, the additions of Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Jerryd Bayless should help Roy out quite a bit. He should get more threes thanks to Oden, and he won't have to shoulder as much of the scoring load, which should result in higher quality shots and a better FG%. I think Roy finally makes the club this season.

Josh Howard - .88 threes, 45.5% FG

What I said BEFORE last season (1.31 threes, 45.9% FG in '06-07):
After shooting over 47% from the field for 2 years in a row, Howard's FG% dropped to 45.9% last season. The reason? He made and attempted far more threes than he ever had before, dragging down his overall FG%. His 3P% was a very respectable 38.5%, suggesting that he's still getting comfortable from behind the arc and that his outside shot may continue to improve. Howard is just entering his prime, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him join the club in '07-08.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
After shooting 38.5% 3P in '06-07, that number plummeted to 31.9% in '07-08. As a result, he didn't make a three per game and his 45.5% FG was his lowest mark since his rookie year. Surprisingly, he shot the ball much worse (42.6% FG, 25.3% 3P) after the Jason Kidd trade. His shooting %'s can't fall any lower than that, but after his recent acts of immaturity, it's hard for me to be bullish on the guy. Still, he has the potential to put up rock solid numbers across the board.

Jose Calderon - .96 threes, 51.9% FG

What I said BEFORE last season (.32 threes, 52.1% FG in '06-07):
Calderon made just 32 threes in his first 141 NBA games, so I didn't consider him for the club last year.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
He fell 3 threes short of making the club last year, but he seems like a lock for this season. In 56 starts, he made 1.21 treys per game on a stellar 45.3% 3P and 53.1% FG. It's hard to believe that he could match those numbers over an entire season, but he shouldn't have a problem shooting over 47% from the field. I'd be shocked if Jose failed to make the club in '08-09.

Caron Butler - 1.14 threes, 46.6% FG

What I said BEFORE last season (.29 threes, 46.3% FG in '06-07):
Butler's previous high in threes was just .55 per game, so he didn't seem like a strong candidate.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
With Arenas out for most of last season, Butler was asked to score in a variety of ways, and he responded by putting up career-high numbers in nearly every single category. In 43 games before the All-Star break, Butler shot a solid 47.6% from the field, but when he returned from injury later on, he shot just 42.9%. With Arenas out for awhile once again, and with Roger Mason now in San Antonio, Butler will be asked to score and shoot as much as possible. It will be tough for him to duplicate last year's career numbers, but his nickname is "Tough Juice," and he's in the prime of his career.

Jameer Nelson - .93 threes, 46.9% FG

(previous CLUB member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.84 threes, 43.0% FG in '06-07):
Nelson actually made the club in '05-06, but after shooting just 43% FG in '06-07, I didn't consider him.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Jameer fell just short of making both cut-offs last season. One reason I'm optimistic is that he shot 50.5% FG after the All-Star break while making 1.42 threes per game. Obviously, he won't do that over an entire season, but he's capable of making the club (and putting up much better fantasy stats) in '08-09.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not-so-Obvious candidates to join the club in '08-09 = ???

As a special to my NBA Fantasy Draft Guide, I've targeted 10 other lesser-known candidates who can make threes for you without hurting your team's FG%.

*Up Next: RotoEvil's Weekly Schedule Grid

[hollywood visitor]

네............................................... 좋은 이야기들이군요......................................................

[[LAL]뚜비]

모리스 에반스가 있네요..ㅎㅎㅎ

[Brandon Rush]

르브론 생각보다~ 3점 옵션이 더 훌륭한 무기네요..^^

[the MVP]

훌륭한이라는 것보단 장착되있다고 해야 하는게 옳을거 같네요. 본문에도 나왔듯이 르브론은 3라인에서 31.5% 입니다. 다만 3라인 안에선 53.1%를 기록하고 있네요;

[Breaker]

혹시라도 오해할 수 있는게 3점 FG가 저만큼이다라고 생각될 요지가 있네요;;ㅋ 3점이 아닌 모든 필드골을 포함한 수치네요;;;

[덤브]

아 저도 순간 착각했네요 -ㅁ-;; 조심해야할 부분일듯

[CAVS]

르브론의 삼점은 가끔보면 정말 뜬금포이다가도 어떨때보면 따라갈때 중요한점수를 내기도하죠 ㅋㅋ 상대로선 막기도모하고 안막자니 또불안한 ..ㅋㅋ 조금 아주 조금 성공률을 높여준다면 정말 훌륭한 무기일듯해요 ^^

[올리버 칸]

워~ 내쉬