미 연준, 양적완화 축소 속도 조절 가능성?

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미 연준, 양적완화 축소 속도 조절 가능성? 2014.06.19 ㅣ조회수 45

       

태그  'FOMC', '양적완화 축소', '미국'       

 

6월 FOMC 성명서에서 연준은 “계속 유입되는 정보가 고용시장 여건의 지속적인 진전이라는 FOMC의 기대를 광범위하게 지지하고, 인플레이션이 장기목표치 근처로 올라간다면 FOMC는 향후 회의에서 자산매입 속도를 완만하게 더 줄일 것”이라는 원칙적인 입장을 밝히고, “하지만 자산매입은 확정된 코스가 아니며 그 속도에 대한 FOMC의 결정은 고용 및 인플레이션에 대한 FOMC의 전망과 함께 자산매입의 잠재적 효과와 비용 평가에 따라 달라질 것”이라는 단서를 달았다.

1월이후 성명서의 내용과 동일한 문구다.

하지만 FOMC는 장기 성장률 전망과, 미 경제가 정상을 회복한 뒤의 평균 금리에 대한 전망을 각각 하향조정해 비관적 장기 경제전망을 드러냈다.

장기 성장률 전망은 2.25%에서 2.2%, 장기 평균 금리 전망치도 4%에서 3.75%로 하향 조정했다.

이는 향후 몇 개월간 미국의 경제관련 지표와 경기 선행지수가 어떻게 나오느냐에 따라서 양적완화 축소의 속도를 조절할 수 있다는 뜻을 담고 있는 것으로 해석된다.

국내외 증권시장은 시간을 벌었다는 심리로 인해 당분간 강세를 보일 것으로 보이고, 원-달러 환율은 하락 압력 속 당국의 대응 강화로 보합세가 예상된다.

아래는 6월 18일자(현지시간 기준) 미 연방준비제도가 보도자료로 발표한 6월 FOMC의 성명서 전문.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee\'s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in July, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee\'s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee\'s dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee\'s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee\'s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee\'s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee\'s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.