누가 강한 달러의 혜택을 볼것인가?

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누가 강한 달러의 혜택을 볼것인가?

연준이 테이퍼를 진행중이고 유로존이 여전히 어려움을 겪고있고, 우리는 2014 년에 더 강한 달러를 보게 될 것입니다.

이것은 우리가 몇 주 전에 이야기를 했다. 달러는 작년에 가속화됐고, 전세계 통화가 바닥을 쳤다.

 캐나다 루니는 7 % 떨어졌다.

 인도 루피는 8 월에 달러에 대한 모든 시간 저가를 쳤고 년11 % 아래로 완료했다.

 브라질 레알은 작년에 13 % 하락했다.

 호주 달러는 물론, 약 13 % 하락.

 그리고 일본 엔화는 20 % 이상 하락했다.

유로는 2013 년 달러 대비 4 % 상승하는 데 성공하지만, 그 경향은 2014 년에 반복할 가능성이 없습니다.유로존 경제는 단순히 너무 약합니다. 사실, 너무 약해. 유럽 중앙 은행 (ECB)이 아마 그것을 띄워 유지하기 위해 통화를 완화하고 있습니다

자,이것이 좋은 일이 인지 아닌지 당신의 관점에 따라 달라집니다.

일반적으로 강한 달러는 채권 소유자 및 절약을 위해 좋다. 그것은 쉽게 / 저렴하고 미국이 빌릴 수 있도록합니다. 그리고 그것은 당신의 저축을 저해하고 인플레이션을 유지합니다.

하지만 단점도 존재합니다.강한 달러는 미국의 수출이 더 비싸게 만들고, 기업 실적에 심각한 역풍 역할을합니다.

그럼 달러가 강화되면 누가 이기고 누가 잃는지 간단히 살펴 보자 ....

달러의 단점

그것은 해외 수요 상처받고 외국 통화의 가치를 침식하기 때문에 강한 달러는 미국에 기반을 둔 다국적 기업에 대해 일을 어렵게 만든다.

예를 들어, 자동차 산업에있다.

일본은 혼다 (HMC)와 도요타 (TM)와 같은 자동차강국이고 큰 경쟁자이다.

미국과 일본에서 제조 된 두 개의 동일한 자동차가 있는척한다. 2012 년 말에, 자동차 1.75 만엔 또는 22,000 달러 비용이든다. 음, 2013 년 말, 미국 에서 만든 자동차는 여전히 22,000 달러 비용들고 하지만 엔은 약 20 % 하락 하고, 같은 1백75만엔 자동차는 이제 17,500 달러의 비용이 든다.

당신이 볼 수 있듯이, 강한 달러는 미국에서 수입 제품을 저렴하게하고, 다른 국가에서 미국의 수출은 더 비싸다.

뿐만 아니라 그들은 다시 달러로 해외 소득을 변환 할 때 미국의 다국적 기업이 두드리고(이익이 적게) 얻을 수있다.

.

예를 들어, $ 1 로 2013 년의 시작 부분에 87엔을 구입할 수 있었다. 하지만 지금은 콜라 캔 100 엔을 지불하는 사람이 효율적으로 $ 1.15를 지불하여야하고 1 달러 103 원 상당입니다. 즉, 100 엔을 지불하는 사람이 효과적으로 콜라 같은 깡통에 97 센트를 지불하는 것을 의미합니다.

또한, 콜라는 통화가 유사한 순매출의 2 % 역풍과 분기 동안 유사한 영업 이익에 5 %의 역풍이 부는것을 자사의 3 분기 실적 성명에서 말했다.

그것은 혼자가 아니다.

캐터필라 (CAT), 디어 (DE), 보잉 (BA), 존슨 앤 존슨 (JNJ)와 제너럴 일렉트릭 (GE), 모두 해외에서 큰 사업을 하는 회사는, 거의 확실하게 강한 달러에 의해 상처된 판매를 볼 수 있습니다. 그 부정적인 영향이 손실된 국제적인 판매로 미국 GDP의 성장을 제한 할뿐만 아니라, 더 넓은 경제를 필터링합니다.

이익은 북쪽을 향한다 (캐나다)

반대로, 강한 달러는 외국과 경쟁을하는 데 도움이됩니다.

나는 이미 혼다와 도요타 같은 외국 자동차 업체에게 혜택을 언급하지만 그게 전부가 아니에요.

캐나다 달러는 3 년 이상에서 가장 낮은 수준에 가까워졌습니다. 많은 분석가들은 루니가 캐나다 기업에 좋은 순풍을 제공하고, 올해 최소 90 센트 떨어질 전망이다.

에너지 회사들은 제품에 대한 달러 지불, 그래서 그들은 자신의 소득을 본국으로 송환 할 때 실제로 더 많은 캐나다 달러를받을수 있습니다. 그리고 미치광이에 반영된 캐나다의 다른 제품,, 갑자기 저렴하게 본다.

또한, 미국 달러로 거래를하지만, 캐나다의 급여와 경비를 지불하는데 캐나다 석유 생산자는 추가 보너스를 얻을수 있다.

브루스 그레이엄, 캘거리 경제 개발의 사장 겸 최고 경영자 (CEO)는 "캐나다의 통신에서 말했다 그리고 만약"당신이 투자자라면, 당신은 우리가 액면가에있을 때, 8퍼센트의 할인된 시장에서 구입할 수 있습니다 " 당신은 수출, 해외에서 미국 시장으로 자신의 제품을 이동하려고하는 사람은, 특히, 6 개월 전에 없었던 비용의 이점을 가지고있다. "

즉, Suncor 에너지 (SU), Cameco (CCJ)와 캐나다의 다른 메이저(국제석유자본)에 대한 좋은 소식입니다.

결론 : 미국 기업이 점점 더 어려움에 있을동안 주요한 해외 수출은 강한 달러에서 얻기 위해 대기합니다.

덧붙이면, 소득에 해당하는 타격은 지난해 25 % 급증한 미국 주식에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

돈을 받고,

Who Really Benefits From a Stronger Dollar?

With Fed tapering underway and the Eurozone still struggling, we'll likely be looking at a stronger dollar in 2014.

This is something we talked about a few weeks ago. As the dollar gathered steam last year, currencies around the globe hit the floor.

• Canada's loonie tumbled 7%.
• The Indian rupee hit an all-time low against the dollar in August and finished the year down 11%.
• The Brazilian real fell 13% last year.
• The Australian dollar shed about 13%, as well.
• And the Japanese yen plunged more than 20%.

The euro managed to rise 4% against the dollar in 2013, but that trend is not likely to repeat in 2014. The Eurozone economy is simply too weak. It's so weak, in fact, that the European Central Bank (ECB) may will probably have loosen monetary to keep it afloat.

Now, whether or not this is a good thing depends on your perspective.

Generally speaking, a stronger dollar is good for bondholders and savers. It makes it easier/less expensive for the United States to borrow. And it keeps inflation from undermining your savings.

But then there are downsides, as well. A stronger dollar will make U.S. exports more expensive, and acts as a serious headwind to corporate earnings.

So let's take a quick look at who wins and who loses when the dollar strengthens....

The Dollar's Downside

A strong dollar makes things difficult for U.S.-based multinationals, because it hurts overseas demand and erodes the value of foreign currencies.

Take the automotive industry, for example.

Japan is a huge competitor with powerhouses like Honda (HMC) and Toyota (TM).

Pretend there are two identical cars manufactured in the United States and Japan. At the end of 2012, the cars cost 1.75 million yen, or $22,000. Well, by the end of 2013, the U.S. made car still costs $22,000, but since the yen fell some 20%, the same 1.75 million yen car now costs $17,500.

As you can see, a stronger dollar makes imported products cheaper in the United States, and U.S. exports more expensive in other countries.

Not only that, U.S. multinationals get pounded when they convert foreign income back into dollars.

For instance, when $1 could buy 87 yen at the beginning of 2013, someone paying 100 yen for a can of Coke was effectively paying $1.15. But now, $1 is worth 103 yen. That means someone paying 100 yen is effectively paying 97 cents for the same can of Coke.

Incidentally, Coke said in its third-quarter earnings statement that currency was a 2% headwind on comparable net revenues and a 5% headwind on comparable operating income during the quarter.

It's not alone.

Companies like Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE), Boeing (BA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and General Electric (GE), all do huge business abroad, and will almost certainly see sales hurt by a stronger dollar. That negative impact will filter into the broader economy, as well, as lost international sales, constrain U.S. GDP growth.

Profits Head North

Conversely, the stronger dollar helps foreign competitors.

I already mentioned how it benefits foreign carmakers, like Honda and Toyota, but that's not all.

The Canadian dollar is nearing its lowest level in more than three years. Many analysts believe the loonie will fall to at least 90 cents this year, providing a nice tailwind to Canadian business.

Energy companies are paid in dollars for their products, so they have they actually receive more Canadian dollars when they repatriate their income. And other Canadian products, priced in loonies, all of the sudden look cheaper.

Furthermore, Canadian oil producers that trade in U.S. dollars, but pay Canadian salaries and expenses get an added bonus.

"If you're an investor, you can buy into this market at an eight per cent discount from what you could when we were at par," Bruce Graham, president and chief executive of Calgary Economic Development, told the Canadian Press "And if you are an exporter, somebody who is trying to move their product abroad into the U.S. market, in particular, you've got a cost advantage that you didn't have six months ago."

That's good news for Suncor Energy (SU), Cameco (CCJ) and other Canadian majors.

The bottom line: Major foreign exporters stand to gain from a stronger dollar, while U.S. companies find treading increasingly difficult.

More to the point, the corresponding hit to earnings could negatively affect U.S. stocks, which surged 25% last year.

Get paid,

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