핵억지이론

Nuclear Deterrence Theory. Nuclear deterrence theory is the strategic concept that the threat of nuclear retaliation prevents adversaries from launching a nuclear or large-scale conventional attack. It relies on the logic of fear, rational actors, and the devastating consequences of nuclear war to maintain peace. ■ Core Principles of Nuclear Deterrence Theory🔹Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD):   - If two nuclear powers possess second-strike capability, any first strike would result in total retaliation.   - This creates a balance of terror that discourages nuclear use.   - Central to Cold War stability between the U.S. and USSR. 🔹First-Strike vs Second-Strike Capability:   - First-strike: Ability to destroy an adversary’s nuclear arsenal preemptively.   - Second-strike: Ability to retaliate even after absorbing a nuclear attack.   - Deterrence depends on credible second-strike capability (e.g., SSBNs).   - Credibility and Communication:       Deterrence only works if threats are believable and clearly communicated.       Ambiguity or bluffing can lead to miscalculation.   - Rational Actor Assumption:       Assumes leaders will act logically to avoid mutual destruction.       Critics argue this may not hold in crises or with non-state actors. ■ Evolution of the Theory🔹Cold War Era:   - MAD dominated strategic thinking.   - Arms races and proxy wars were shaped by deterrence logic.🔹Post-Cold War & Modern Era:   - Emergence of limited deterrence, flexible response, and counterforce strategies.   - Cyber warfare, hypersonic weapons, and AI challenge traditional deterrence models.🔹Extended Deterrence:   - A nuclear power protects allies by threatening retaliation on their behalf.   - Example: U.S. nuclear umbrella over NATO, South Korea, and Japan. ■ Challenges and Critiques   - Deterrence instability: In multipolar nuclear environments, miscommunication or escalation risks increase.   - Non-state actors: Terrorist groups may not be deterred by traditional logic.   - Technological disruption: AI, cyberattacks, and missile defense systems complicate deterrence calculations. ■ Strategic Tools of Deterrence   - Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs): Stealthy platforms for second-strike capability.   - ICBMs and SLBMs: Ensure rapid and global reach.   - Nuclear posture reviews: Define national deterrence doctrine and thresholds.