일반정보 오늘 홍콩 증시 상승 요인중 하나 이며/오늘 저녁 미 증시 관전 포인트중 하나(영문기사)

[산정상]

 

Fed likely to give investors a surprise

 Last updated: November 20 2007 01:21(ET)

The US Federal Reserve will on Tuesday publish its first set of enhanced economic forecasts alongside the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the result may surprise some investors.

The new economic projections are likely to show that Fed policymakers expect the US economy will pull through an expected near-term rough patch and regain strength over the course of 2008, even though they see downside risks to that ­forecast.

This relatively upbeat assessment will reinforce the impression that the US ­central bank is more bullish on growth than the financial markets, and challenge market expectations of further interest rate cuts.

 

Fed funds futures are pricing in a near-90 per cent probability that the Fed will cut interest rates again in December, and the market expects the central bank will ­probably cut rates twice more during next year – a base case view top Fed officials apparently do not share.

The projections themselves will not offer a clear picture of the likely path of interest rates, because they are made by each policymaker individually on the assumption of appropriate monetary policy.

But the minutes to be published alongside the projections will show that at the time of the October meeting – when the projections were made – most Fed officials were not expecting to cut interest rates further.

Taken together, the two are likely to suggest the Fed does not think that further aggressive rate cuts are likely to prove necessary to underwrite the expected recovery in growth.

The caveat is that the projections were made on October 31 and credit market conditions have deteriorated since then. However, recent comments by Fed officials suggest that they do not regard these changes as significant enough to shift their policy stance.

The new forecasts will also lift the veil on Fed thinking about a range of important longer-term economic issues.

They will demonstrate once and for all that the Fed does not have an agreed “comfort zone” for inflation of between 1 per cent and 2 per cent when measured by the personal consumption expenditure deflator – as some in the markets still believe.

Instead they will probably show that most Fed officials target a number in the higher end of that range – perhaps between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent – because of the risks associated with very low inflation.

The projections will also probably show that, while some Fed officials think food and energy prices will rise faster than others in the years ahead, most do not.

They will demonstrate that Fed policymakers now see US trend growth as slightly below 3 per cent, with most officials probably estimating trend to be somewhere in the region of 2.8 per cent, but some possibly seeing it lower than that.

Meanwhile, they will indicate that the Fed is not very sure what the lowest sustainable rate of unemployment is, seeing it as somewhere between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent.

These insights were already implicit in existing Fed communications, but will become much clearer with the publication of the new forecasts and the accompanying commentary.

[미디]

[가을여행]

헉........

[수샬]

@.@ 해.석.불.가

[방문객]

사이트 주소 알수 있나요 ?

[미디]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b87e70ee-96db-11dc-b2da-0000779fd2ac.html 번역기 돌리는데 먼말인지 몰겟네요...

[홍도르]

아~~ 그렇구나...-_-;;

[뙨장]

@@

[정서윤]

누구 해석좀 please ^^

[하늘 꽃]

[러브바이러스™]

타이틀에 이미 답이 나온듯한대요? 타이틀만 해석.."fed가 투자자들에게 놀라움을 줄것 같다".나머지는 어렵네..^^;..오늘밤에 fomc회의록에 좋은 내용(긍정적인)이 있나본데요..

[홍도르]

금리인하인가보네요 ㅋㅋㅋ

[러브바이러스™]

오..감사...펀스 통역관..수익률님..^^

[러브바이러스™]

수익률님 ..ㄳ

[백마electric]

수익률이 쑥쑥님..감사 합니당....

[건우아빠]

쑥쑥님 감사드립니다. ^^

[설희빠]

잘 보았습니다. 감사합니다. 더욱이 좋은 내용이어서 더 좋네요.

[아라리오]

언제 변역되나 했습니다. 감사합니다.

[산정상]

수익률 쑥쑥님/제대신 항상 수고 해 주셔서 감사합니다.. 건우아빠님 에게도 감사드립니다..//위에 올려 놓은 오늘 홍콩 증시 마감 시황 참조 하시기 바랍니다.

[엑스트라하이엔드]

산정상님 과 쑥쑥님 감사여

[예쁠껄]

내가 할려고 했는데 아쉽네요 감사감사^^

[백마electric]

산정상 성님 감사 합니다~~!!..전 줘도 못 먹어여~~~~!!ㅎㅎㅎ

[아라리오]

소중한 정보 감사합니다.

[하늘보며]

잘보았습니다.. 현재 시장에 줄 수 있는 최고의 호재라고 보이네요..^^

[찬스22]

정보고맙습니다.