어제 미국은 하락하였으나 아시아 증시는 상승
화요일 아시아 증시는 손실을 좀 줄였다. 이는 투자자들이 최근 글로벌 매도는 다소 과도한 측면이 있다고 판단. 비록 미국경제에 대한 걱정이 여전함에도.
일본과 홍콩은 강하게 반등. 이는 미 연준이 12월 11일 FOMC에서 금리를 인하할 것이라는 전망이 확산되면서.
일본 1.12%, 홍콩 1.13%, 싱가폴 0.78%, 상하이 0.45%
연준이 금리를 인하할 것이라는 정체 불명의 소문이 돌았고 주가 상승을 촉발
또한 파이낸셜타임즈지가 연준이 미국경제에 대해 좀더 밝은 전망을 할 것이라는 기사도 투자심리 회복에 기여(물론 만약 리포트 내용이 사실이라면 연준의 금리인하 가능성은 낮아진다)
장 마감 가까운 시점에서 급격한 반등은 시장이 바닥에 거의 가까워졌다는 기대를 반영 (대만의 자산관리회사의 전문가 머시기)
화요일 아시아 모든 증시는 오전에 미국 은행부분의 나쁜소식으로 하락 출발. (미국의 주택경기 붐이던 시기에 고위험 차입자가 빌린 서브프라임 모기지의 채무불이행 가능성이 높아지면서 은행업계가 타격을 심하게 받음)
가장 큰 문제는 미국 증시가 안정화 되느냐 이다 (일본 증권사 머시기)
어제밤동안 미국 증시는 은행부문의 나쁜 소식으로 심리적 지지선이던 13000 밑으로 꼴아박음.
미국증시가 1.5% 하락하면 당신들(아시아시장)도 분명히 마이너스 하루가 될거야(Austock의 머시기)
서울은 -1.12%, 태국 -0.13%, 호주 -1.68%, 마닐라 -2.87%
인도는 거의 -2%, 인도네시아는 -0.83%, 말레이시아 -0.59%
투자자들은 수요일 발표되는 FOMC의 10월 의사록에 주목. 연준의 12월 11일 금리결정의 힌트가 되니까.
연준은 9월 이후 금융시장 안정, 미국경제 안정을 위해 2번 금리를 인하.
금요일 골드만삭스는 시티그룹에 대해 매도의견을 냈으며, 시티그룹이 서브프라임 모기지 부실에 노출로 다음 분기동안 150억달러의 상각이 예상된다고 발표
이 뉴스는 산업활동이 주택시장의 침체 여파에 영향을 받기 시작했다는 걱정을 증폭. 또한 미국경제에 대한 걱정도 증폭(도쿄 증권사 머시기)
9월 연준의 금리인하는 투자자들의 심리를 회복에 기여. 그러나 현재 상황은 악화. 현재 미국경제 둔화를 방지하기 위한 추가적인 조치가 필요.
Asian stocks bounce back after Wall Street fall
42 minutes ago
Asian stocks trimmed losses Tuesday with some bourses bouncing into the black as investors decided a recent global sell-off was overdone, despite lingering concerns about the US economy.
Bourses were mixed, with Tokyo and Hong Kong rebounding strongly in late trade as speculation grew that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates again at its meeting next month, dealers said.
Bargain-hunters helped lead the gains in Tokyo, Asia's largest bourse, where the benchmark Nikkei index slipped to a 16-month intra-day low in early trade before finishing a robust 1.12 percent higher.
Hong Kong also finished the day 1.13 percent higher after an early slide, while Singapore was up 0.78 percent and Shanghai rose 0.45 percent.
"Japanese shares rebounded, lifting some Asian shares. But once the market cools its head shares could float back down again and open lower Wednesday morning," said Fumiaki Nakanishi of SMBC Friend Securities.
He said that a rumour of unknown origin spread through the market in late trade that the Fed will cut rates, "sparking a buying bout."
Sentiment was also lifted by an online Financial Times report that the Fed was expected to give a brighter forecast for the US economy, even though the report, if true, would likely decrease chances of a rate cut.
"The dramatic turnaround toward the close reflects expectations that the market might have hit a near-term bottom, for now at least," said Michael Hsu, an assistant vice president at Taiwan Life Asset Management in Taipei, which ended flat.
All Asian shares had opened lower Tuesday morning after a raft of bad news from the US banking sector, which has been hit hard by rising defaults in "subprime" loans offered to high-risk customers during the US housing boom.
"The biggest focus is whether US shares will stabilise or not," said Masayoshi Yano of Tokai Tokyo Securities.
On Wall Street overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.66 percent, dropping below the psychologically important barrier of 13,000 after the negative news in the banking sector.
"When the US market drops by one-and-a-half percent you're going to be in for a fairly negative day," said Michael Heffernan, a private client advisor at Austock.
Seoul fell 1.12 percent and Bangkok closed down 0.13 percent, both well off early lows. Sydney closed down 1.68 percent and Manila fell a steeper 2.87 percent.
Mumbai was down nearly two percent in midday trade. Jakarta was down 0.83 percent and Kuala Lumpur slipped 0.59 percent.
Investors were looking to the minutes of the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, due to be released Wednesday, for clues on the Fed's rate move next month.
The US central bank has cut rates twice since September in an attempt to appease distressed financial markets and prevent the US economy from stalling, but the outlook has been muddled by sturdy inflation.
On Monday Goldman Sachs in a note recommended a sell order for banking giant Citigroup, citing an expected 15 billion-dollar write-down in its next fiscal quarter due to its exposure to the subprime mortgage crisis.
"This news exacerbated fears that business performance is starting to feel the impact of the housing fallout, which in turn is raising concern on the direction of the US economy," said Yano from Tokai Tokyo Securities.
"The September cut was to boost investor confidence. But now the situation is a little different. Now more needs to be done to prevent a slowdown," he said.
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정보 감사합니다. 이해가 될듯말듯~~~ 것도 국문만 히~~~
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