싱가포르 13 - Looking back: Events that shaped the year

[chahlley]

Looking back: Events that shaped the year

2015 was a year of tragedies, disasters and terror. Some, like the quake in Nepal, were over        almost instantly while others, like the European migrant crisis and the Islamic State in Iraq and     Syria, were dramas that unfolded daily. But there were also uplifting moments, such as the         Myanmar general election and the Paris climate deal.

1. Refugee crisis places Europe in quandary

Syrian migrants crossing under a fence as they enter Hungary at the border with Serbia, near Roszke, in August. By the time this year ends, Europe would have received at least 1.2 million refugees. This is the biggest mass movement in a generation.PHOTO: REUTERS

European Union leaders have held no less than five emergency summits but still, they keep on coming:      by the time this year ends, Europe would have received at least 1.2 million refugees.

This is the biggest mass movement in a generation and the most controversial in at least half a century,      for it could potentially destroy Europe's existing political arrangements.

Almost every EU country bears some responsibility for the continent's current disarray. The Greeks and       Italians, at the forefront of this massive influx, are guilty of simply ignoring their European treaty obligations by pushing refugees through towards the richer, western part of Europe.

 

Many other European nations also turned a blind eye to this migration pressure, provided the asylum-seekers kept moving on. But the biggest role in this saga was played by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who announced her country's borders are open to all migrants, leading to an influx of a million.

Every European politician knows this cannot go on for much longer, but the EU still prefers to hide behind "vision" rather than action.

EU leaders promised to build 11 refugee centres in Greece and Italy; only two are operational. Governments also agreed to share between them 160,000 refugees; only about 200 were relocated.

Although Turkey has accepted a ?3.4 billion (S$5.2 billion) aid package in return for a promise to seal its frontiers, the borders remain as porous as ever. Even grander plans are now in the offing, such as the creation of a new, Europewide border force although these are equally unlikely to materialise.

There is no question that 2016 will be a critical year in this respect: either Europe succeeds in reducing migration flows to more manageable proportions, or its internal arrangements which allow for the free movement of people will collapse, with incalculable consequences. Barbed wire fences are already going up at the borders of many European countries.

Jonathan Eyal

2. 1MDB scandal rocks Malaysian politics

Mr Najib (right) sacked deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin for raising uncomfortable questions.PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

The year in Malaysia started with the debt struggles of state investment firm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and how it got into the mess in the first place. And the same questions remain as the year draws to a close.

The 1MDB, which is owned by the Finance Ministry, was set up by Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2009 and he heads its board of advisers.

In July, Datuk Seri Najib was confronted with another scandal when some US$680 million (S$961 million) in cash was discovered in his bank accounts by investigators probing 1MDB. The Malaysian government says it is working hard to erase 1MDB's debts. And Mr Najib has pointed to unnamed donors from the Middle East for the huge cash injection, adding they did not expect anything in return.

The ruling party, Umno, was roiled by the twin scandals, which led Mr Najib to sack deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin for raising uncomfortable questions.

Electoral reform group Bersih held a mass street rally in August, with former premier Mahathir Mohamad turning up at the rally as part of his push to oust Mr Najib.

Though Umno was weakened by the infighting, the opposition failed to take advantage as it, too, was preoccupied with internal strife.

In February, Anwar Ibrahim, who had kept the tripartite Pakatan Rakyat (PR) opposition alliance together, was jailed again after being found guilty on a sodomy charge.

In June, the post of president in opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) was contested for the first time. Party president Abdul Hadi Awang and his team of conservatives won the biennial elections. The losing group left to form Parti Amanah Negara.

PAS' push to bring Islamic criminal law, hudud, to the centre of Malaysian politics soured ties with Chinese-led Democratic Action Party and led to the break-up of PR.

Malaysian consumers were hit hard on two fronts - surging prices after a 6 per cent goods and services tax took effect in April, and the steep slide of the ringgit.

Reme Ahmad

3. Regional haze one of the worst in history

A firefighter extinguishing a blaze on peatland in Central Kalimantan at the height of the crisis this year.PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

The transboundary haze crisis of 2015, which affected millions across South-east Asia, will go down as one of the worst in recent history - surpassing the 1997 and 2013 crises.

Forest fires, mainly in Kalimantan and Sumatra in Indonesia, raged for over three months despite a multinational effort to put them out. The smoke from the fires not only blanketed the skies over Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, but it also caused more than half a million Indonesians to suffer from severe respiratory illnesses. At least 19 of them, including babies, have died.

The air pollution levels broke records, often staying at hazardous levels for weeks. At its peak in October, total emissions from the fires soared to nearly 1.4 billion tonnes - resulting in Indonesia becoming the third-biggest polluter in the world, after China and the United States. This forced Jakarta to move into high gear to mitigate the problem - deploying thousands of troops and seeking international assistance.

 

The fires eventually abated last month, but only after days of sustained rainfall. At the time, Indonesia was on the verge of declaring the crisis a national emergency - with President Joko Widodo cutting short his visit to the US to deal with the crisis at home.

Latest calculations by Indonesia's Ministry of Environment and Forestry show the fires destroyed about 2.6 million ha of forests and peatland, while the World Bank estimates the fires cost Indonesia at least 221 trillion rupiah (S$22.4 billion), or almost 2 per cent of GDP for this year.

The haze will return next year, and all eyes will be on Indonesia to see if it has enough resolve to prevent a repeat of the disaster.

Mr Joko has ordered the police to get tough with errant farmers and firms that still use fire to clear land. A ban on the cultivation of peatlands, including those on concessions that have yet to be turned into plantations, has also been issued by the President.

Francis Chan

4. 81-sec handshake with long-term significance

Singapore hosted the historic meeting between Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Nov 7.ST FILE PHOTO

It was an 81-second handshake but the impact of the historic powwow on Nov 7 in Singapore between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou could be far-reaching.

Both became the first presidents across the Taiwan Strait to meet since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949 that saw the Kuomintang (KMT) losing to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and fleeing to Taiwan.

The two leaders shook hands, posed for photos, and held an hour-long meeting discussing issues such as China's missiles facing Taiwan and the island's desire for bigger international involvement.

 

Although the meeting was mostly symbolic, analysts believe it could have some impact on Taiwan's presidential election next month by narrowing the gap between the trailing KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Others believe the meeting would pave the way for more functional exchanges between the ministries of both sides.

More crucially, analysts think the CCP and the KMT want to prevent warming cross-strait ties from being derailed under the pro-independence DPP by emphasising the 1992 consensus of "one China, different interpretations".

The meeting could pave the way for more functional exchanges between ministries and government outfits of both sides.

There are also potential regional ramifications: Japan fears a closer cross-strait front on the disputed East China isles known as Diaoyudao to Beijing, Senkaku to Tokyo and Diaoyutai to Taipei.

The United States also is concerned that a warmer cross-strait relationship could lead to closer cooperation in the South China Sea and aid China's territorial claims there.

To Singapore, the event again bears further testament to its usefulness as a neutral venue for cross-strait relations, having also hosted a historic meeting between both sides in 1993.

Kor Kian Beng

5. Nepal quake a severe blow to its economy

Workers reinforcing the roof of a temple in historical Durbar Square, in Nepal, which had collapsed, following an earthquake in April.ST FILE PHOTO

On April 25, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake rocked Nepal, killing 8,617 people and destroying up to 700,000 homes and 8,000 schools.

An avalanche that roared through the middle of Everest base camp killed two dozen people.

Hundreds of climbers were stranded on the mountain.

 

Still, Nepal could count itself lucky - the quake hit on a Saturday morning when schools were closed and many people were out in the streets or fields.

The capital city, Kathmandu, was spared major damage, but the rural districts of Gorkha and Sindhupalchowk were devastated.

Yet, despite the knowledge that a major earthquake was due, the country was ill-prepared.

Nepal's chronic underdevelopment, exacerbated by a decade-long civil war from 1996, and subsequent political wrangling, aggravated the dire situation.

International aid poured in, including from the global Nepali diaspora.

But for weeks after the quake, relief and rehabilitation efforts were hampered by the lack of infrastructure.

Political squabbles also delayed a Bill for the formation of a Reconstruction Authority for months. It was passed only this month. 

Making matters worse was Nepal's new Constitution, promulgated in September, which is seen as biased against the Madhesis - people of Indian origin living in the plains, as opposed to ethnic Nepalis of the mountain districts.

Pressure from India - in the form of an unofficial blockade on goods - to accommodate the demands of the Madhesis has left ties in tatters, squandering the goodwill of India's muscular response to the quake disaster.

It also has hamstrung ongoing aid efforts, prolonging the humanitarian disaster.

Nirmal Ghosh

6. Paris attacks stress need for security, integration

People gathering on Nov 16 for a memorial at a restaurant attacked by gunmen days earlier, in Paris.PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

The gunmen who brought destruction to the streets of Paris, France, on Nov 13 left not only 130 civilians dead, but also sent shock waves through the entire European Union. For although Europe is no stranger to terrorist attacks, the Paris massacres were a turning point; they are a stark reminder of how much the continent needs to do to improve its security measures and ensure the peaceful integration of its Muslim communities.

The gunmen were mostly French citizens who frequently travelled to and from Syria and other Middle East terrorist hot spots undetected, although they figured on the radars of Europe's intelligence services.

They were also able to move from one European country to another without leaving any documentary evidence, and encountered little difficulty in purchasing the weapons they needed from middlemen in Belgium. In short, the terrorists of today are fully globalised; it's only the forces of law and order which are hemmed in by national borders.

 

Trying to preserve the personal freedoms which Europeans cherish while at the same time tightening security procedures won't be easy.

And it may take Europe years before counter-terrorism legislation is harmonised in a way which provides for the same high standard of security throughout the continent.

But even more difficult would be the task of countering the radicalisation messages which have persuaded over 2,000 European Muslims to volunteer for terrorist groups in the Middle East. Social exclusion is not the only explanation for this phenomenon, but marginalisation does play a part. It is striking that those who perpetrated the Paris terrorist attacks were petty criminals, bred in the gritty housing estates of France and Belgium where they had little contact with the broader society in which they were born.

It is right and proper that the French government and those of other European nations should concentrate on apprehending the men of violence. But the real work of counter-radicalisation is only beginning, and it will be gruelling.

Jonathan Eyal

7. NLD win a watershed in Myanmar history

Supporters of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi hold posters bearing her image as she speaks during a campaign rally on Nov 1, 2015. PHOTO: AFP

 

The National League for Democracy (NLD) swept Myanmar's Nov 8 general election, the outcome surpassing the party's own expectations. It won a majority in the 664-seat Parliament and reduced the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to a thin back bench.

The emotional wave stirred by NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi highlighted the paradox of Myanmar's system: Under the current Constitution, she cannot become president because her two sons are British citizens.

But she made clear she would nominate the next president and hold real power as party leader.

The situation also highlighted the need for compromise and accommodation, which are key to stability. Initial signs are hopeful. Ms Suu Kyi held talks with President Thein Sein and armed forces chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. More importantly, she met retired dictator Than Shwe, who endorsed her as Myanmar's future leader.

Challenges remain for the NLD. These include delivering on the high expectations of voters who largely equate democracy and an NLD government with prosperity and more rights.

Underlying these challenges is the need to maintain a working relationship with a military that still controls important portfolios.

Still, the election and the NLD's victory are major turning points for Myanmar, coming five years after a calibrated shift to quasi-democracy after decades of stifling military rule.

Nirmal Ghosh

8. Clash of the Titans over S. China Sea

An aerial view shows the Pagasa (Hope) Island, which belongs to the disputed Spratly group of islands, in the South China Sea.PHOTO: REUTERS

In the early hours of Oct 27, the USS Lassen, an American guided missile destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of two Chinese-built artificial islands in the South China Sea - triggering weeks of heated diplomatic exchanges between the United States and China.

The move - called a freedom of navigation patrol by the US and an "irresponsible" and unprecedented act of provocation by the Chinese - caught many off-guard.

The US had dropped hints just hours earlier that the operation would take place and subsequently avoided saying anything at all about the voyage apart from confirm‎ing that it did take place.

Still, during a year when tensions between the US and China spiked in the region over Beijing's aggressive land reclamation works, the naval operation was perhaps the marquee clash.

For much of the year, the US had urged China to stop its aggressive island-building activity in contested waters. While other claimants had done land reclamation of their own, Beijing's projects were noteworthy for their scale and speed.

The USS Lassen's voyage effectively made concrete what had been purely verbal exchanges.

The two sides clashed over the matter again during the Asean Summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit a month later. In fact, Asia-Pacific defence ministers meeting ahead of the two summits scrapped plans for their customary joint declaration as they could not agree on language on the South China Sea.

All in all, it has been a tumultuous year in the South China Sea, and it remains unclear if 2016 will be any better.

Jeremy Au Yong

9. World takes big step in climate change battle

Three environmentalists wear polar bear costumes in a demonstration in Paris, France, during the World Climate Change Conference on Dec 12, 2015.PHOTO: REUTERS

This year started with big hopes - in 2015, the world would finally unite in a fight against climate change. It needed to.

The weather was getting more extreme and the planet was becoming hotter, with 2014 the hottest year in recorded history. Storms, floods and droughts were all growing in strength and millions of people were being affected.

Failed United Nations climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009 had set back efforts.

 

After years of diplomacy, a major UN meeting in Paris from Nov 30 to Dec 11 this year was meant to finally seal a deal in which all nations would cut greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of global warming.

The French government was determined a deal would be done. President Francois Hollande marshalled an army of diplomats, led by Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, to travel the globe during the year to overcome deep divisions and mistrust that had held back a universal climate deal for more than two decades.

On Dec 12, their efforts, and those of the UN, prevailed. After intensive negotiations involving delegates from nearly 200 nations, the Paris talks concluded with a global deal.

All nations will cut emissions through national action plans that are regularly reviewed and boosted over time. The pact commits all nations to hold warming to well below 2 deg C and pursue efforts to aim for a 1.5 deg C rise over pre-industrial levels.

To achieve this, fossil fuel pollution will have to be slashed, and quickly, while renewable energy and energy efficiency investments need to be greatly expanded.

10. Iran N-deal could head in any direction

A file photograph showing an Iranian security officer walking in front of the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, southern Iran, on Aug 21, 2010.PHOTO: EPA

It has the potential of transforming the Middle East.

Or it could go down in history as one of the most monumental failures of modern diplomacy.

With the nuclear accord between Teheran and world powers now in force, the verdict on this pact hangs in the balance.

What is clear is the deal has intensified the clash between competing visions of Iran's future, all of which will play out during 2016. In February, Iran will elect a new Parliament and Assembly of Experts, the body that will pick the next supreme leader, with the current leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei aged and in failing health.

The coming year will also be awkward for US President Barack Obama. Most of the attention in the Middle East is now diverted to the wars in Syria and Iraq, and the need to defeat the terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

But Mr Obama's broader objective is to anchor Iran as a factor of stability in the Middle East, a difficult task just as he embarks on his last year in office, and is therefore in his least influential period.

Both Mr Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will continue to act prudently, attempting to reverse decades of suspicion and hostility by beefing up the nuclear accord with a variety of discreet dialogue channels.

But the omens are not good for such a rapprochement, and the decision not to submit the deal to congressional ratification may be Mr Obama's gravest error: since it is not a treaty, it can simply be discarded by any leader who next occupies the White House.

Jonathan Eyal

[chahlley]

위의 event 말고도 많았다. 1월 7일에 있었던 Charlie hebo shooting, 2월 4일에 있었던 Trans-Asia Airways Crash, 2월 10일의 India's ruling party tronnced in Delhi state Election, 3월 26일 Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's death, 4월 25일 Nepal Quake, 5월 Mers in South Korea, 7월 20일 US, Cuba Restore Full Diplomatic Ties, 8월 17일 Bangkok Blast, 9월 19일 Japan Passes Controversal Security Bills, 10월 4일 TPP Agreement Reached, 11월 8일 Myanmar Election, 11월 24일 Turkey shoot down Russian Flight Jet, 12월 12일 Global Climate Agreed, 12월 28일South Korea, Japan strike landmark deal on comfort women 등 event도..