The victory of the White coalition seriously changed the history of Russia. It is important, that the Civil War in KR timeline de-facto happened only on the territory of the Central Russia.
The rebellion of the Left SRs in Moscow and in the other cities of Central Russia and the uprising of the Czechoslovak legion all over the Transsib railroad started the Russian civil war. Siberia was immediately lost by the Moscow government and the coalition of the right, centrist and left SRs came to power here. On the Don river the local Cossacks forces and the White Army with help of Germany started to move in the North, and the local Russians in the Baltic States also began to form their armies.
The biggest part of Russia, which was controlled by the Reds was the territory between occupied by Germany Ukraine, White Ruthenia and Baltic States in the West and Volga-Don river border in the East. And after the summer of 1918 the Moscow government began to lose more and more regions.
Though the left SRs were crushed, but Lenin was killed and his successors weren’t so effective…The Reds lost Tsarytsyn, Petrograd and finally Moscow in the summer of 1920.
The situation in 1921 was difficult. The Russian Constituent Assembly, re-elected in the fall 1921 consisted mainly of the Right SRs, Centrist SRs and Left SRs.
The Right SRs had abandoned many their socialist ideas during the Civil war and step by step moved to the nationalist ideas and ideas of the partially planned economy, but only in the heavy industry.
The Left SRs, who had lost many supporters because of the post-cw major hatred to the socialist ideas of the population, but still were the heroes for many Russians, since they started the 1918 rebellion against the Soviets, still believed, that with the victory of the Syndicalists in France, the world revolution would soon finally begin.
The Centrist SRs (with Kerensky of the top) tried to find an understanding between two SR branches, and also to restart the relations both with the Entente and Mitteleuropa. Moreover Japan still control (direct or through its allies) Transamur.
Though the Russian Far East wasn’t under control of the Japanese troops at all. In 1918, when the Japanese intervention started, it became clear that Japan has serious ambitions in the Russian Far East, the President of the United States Wilson “made an offer that no one would decline” - the American troops will be sent in to Okhotsk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Nikolayevsk-on-Amur. Official aim - to secure the American citizens in the Far East as well as to secure the gold mines, which are "important for the Russian economy in the struggle against the Reds".Unofficial - to limit the Japanese as well as the German plans in the Russian Far East.
Another problem was the economy. Though the economy wasn’t destroyed by the military communism and the CW, as in OTL, but all the SRs had to do something to revive it, but at the same time to please and pacify the peasantry – the most important part of the population for all SR parties, according to their programs. At the end of the 1921 the program of NEP (New economic policy) was started. This NEP was similar to OTL NEP of Lenin, but had fewer elements of the planned economy. At the same time the SRs had different opinions about the aim of the NEP. The Right and Centrist SRs decided to build an ordinary capitalist economy and finally accept de-facto happened land redistribution in the villages by the local authorities. These SRs thought, that a strong and modern economy would once allow Russia to move into the socialism, but the population is not ready now for the socialism.
The Left SRs wanted to speed up the reorganization of the economy, based on the socialist ideas. They claimed that the peasant lands had to be nationalized and the elements of the private property should have been step by step removed from the Russian economy. But the population in this situation supported the right and centrist SRs in the Parliament. The NEP was started.
The other problems were old aristocracy and various prominent and radical officers from the White Army. Many aristocrats (mostly landowners) lost their lands during the land redistribution, which was led by the peasants and at first Bolshevik and later Left SRs in the Central Russia. Though the SR coalition didn’t want to give the land back to the aristocrats, but it also couldn’t pay any attention to this problem. Finally the decision was found - the government gave them some territories, which belonged to Russia itself as a compensation for the land redistribution. Many aristocrats also sold these lands back to the country or to the peasants in the regions, where they weren’t so devastated during the war.
The army was another problem. Russia couldn’t afford to have such a big army, as it was during the civil war. Most of the peasants and workers were immediately demobilized after the end of the civil war. The officers understood that soon they would be asked to leave the army…
The monarchists organization weren’t united as well. While the cousin of Nicholas II, Cyril Vladimirovich claimed to be the rightful emperor, most of people still opposed the monarchy. He wasn’t recognized even by some of his relatives, who remember that Cyril supported the February Revolution in 1917. Other members of Romanov’s family as Dmitry Pavlovich Romanov announced their loyalty to the Republic. Dmitry Pavlovich could even get a post in the powerless Senate, where he and some members of the old aristocracy and the new capitalists started to influence on the government, making the NEP more advantageous for them.
The Church, who still had support among the majority of the nation, but couldn’t take part in the political life of Russia was more or less loyal to government. And the Republic also didn’t want to do anything to Church, trying not to destabilize the situation. Such a “Cold War” between the Republic and Church lasted till the 1930s...
1921-1924 was more or less stable, but after the Turkestan crisis and the Kolchak Putsch, which lead to the Transamur and Turkestan breakaways, the situation in the foreign policy became absolutely awful: -CoF and UoB were too weak to support Russia and its economy. -The Entente which supported the coup and de-facto helped Japan to realize its aggressive plans against Russia, became the enemy №2 for Russia, after Mitteleuropa, which still was the major threat. The country was encircled, but it turned out, that another great power finally decided to help Russia. “Comrades-Democrats: Ivan and Uncle Sam”
1926-1929 (1932)
The situation in Eurasia became very disturbing for the government of the USA. The fall of the British Empire was the reason of the KR Great Depression in the United States. Moreover the occupation of the Transamur by Japan once again strengthened the position of the Empire in the Pacific region, where Japan and the USA were rivals.
The only power, which still was able to stop the Japanese ambitions (and maybe the German too) was Russia, where the moderate right-centrist SR government came to power. And it was ready to start the reorganization of its industry and economy. And it seems that Kerensky was ready to conclude many profitable contracts with the American government and corporations.
Finally the negotiations were finished – the organization “Amtorg” (founded in OTL in 1924), formally a semi-private joint-stock company and American corporation, occupied a unique position in the market as the single purchaser for Russia. Amtorg bought absolutely everything, including factories.
The stabilization of the most important branches of economy and more or less backed by the gold standard Russian Ruble allow Kerensky’s government at the beginning of 1927 to launch a “five-year plan”, which was needed to reconstruct the old tsarist factories (which were not in such bad condition as OTL because of the not so intensive civil war). Also Russia recognized the CoF and UoB – just to nationalize British and French factories in Russia (and some of them were confidentially sold to the Americans). The American businessmen got a right to have various concessions in Russia.
The success of the NEP program and rapid growth of the economy in the period of 1927-1932 was called later as “Zolotoye Pyatiletie” (“Golden five years”). “It’s better to be on the throne with Sanya than to be in the trenches with Manya”.
(“Lutshe byt’ na trone s Sanei, chem v okope vmeste s Manei”) – unofficial Right SRs’ motto.
1929-1933
Though the economic situation at the end of the first five-year plan were stable and no foreign enemies planned to attack Russia, but the internal situation was pretty intense. The second elections in the State Duma (Parliament) in 1929 (1925 elections were cancelled because of the Turkestan crisis) granted the victory to the Right-Centrist-Left SR coalition again.
But since 1929 the conflicts between two sides of the SR started to occur more often, than before. Right-Centrist SRs, called as “Party of Sanya”, who supported Alexander Kerensky (“Sanya” is a short-name for Alexander) abandoned almost all socialist ideas in the foreign and internal policy, and didn’t try to propose any plans of the nationalization of the land. De-facto the motto of this faction was "Enrich yourselves!". And many of the peasants accepted this proposition as well as the workers at the new factories.
On the contrary, the Left SRs, led by Maria Spiridonova, hero of the 1918 rebellion, watching the strengthening of CoF and UoB, started to adopt many syndicalist ideas and mix it with the SR ideology (something like that happened in OTL in the fall of 1918, but that Syndicalism wasn’t the same as in KR…but anyway). But such ideas as the nationalization of the land extremely weakened the “Party of Manya” (“Manya” is a short-name for Maria). The proposition of the alliance with the western syndicalist countries also was unpopular among the citizens and members of the cautious “Party of Sanya”, who didn’t want to take part in any international conflicts until the industrialization would be finished.
This struggle of the Right and Left SRs finally led to the clashes near the Kremlin in the summer of 1933, on the 15th anniversary of the Left SR rebellion. Since that event the Left SRs started to radicalize once again as it had happened in the days of the Russian Revolution 1905-1907...
But the problem also was among the Right SRs. There were many new right SRs members, who had already enriched themselves and did nothing to improve the life of the peasants. Also there were lots of people, who wanted to revive the foreign policy and strengthen the Russian position in the world. This ideas was noticed by the famous ex-SR politician Boris Savinkov, who had already moved from the SR to the nationalist ideology, which was mixed with the populism and various promises to the peasants, Russian industrialists, who wanted to take back Russian factories in the Eastern Europe and the young officers, who wanted to make the army, weakened by the Putsch in 1925, strong again.
Kerensky knew about this problem and decided to get the support of the army first. The Russian army was expanded and new divisions were located in the biggest cities of Siberia and Ural region “to protect Russia from Japan”. It’s important that the Germans had never recognized the occupation of Transsib railroad by Mongolia, the breakaway of Turkestan and Transamur, that’s why the reason was chosen wise enough. So the Kaiser’s government wasn’t really happy because of this army’s expansion, but decided not to make the relations with Kerensky worse than they were.
Another problem was the economy. Though the NEP and first years of the industrialization were successful, but it was clear that the rapid growth of the economy would stop soon enough. The USA weren’t able to grant any significant loans and the resources, which were got from the population during the NEP, couldn’t allow to launch new industrial projects. The new Russian capitalist class, which couldn’t get enough investments from the government, started to replace the Russian workers with the workers from Ukraine, White Ruthenia and Don-Kuban Union – and this led to the first serious strikes since the Civil War. The results of the State Duma elections in the fall 1933 could be unpredictable… The greatest betrayal
1932-1933
NEP, which was described by the SRs as “an economic system that would include a free market and capitalism, both subject to state control while socialized state enterprises were to operate on a profit basis”, was still a temporary measure for both Right and Left SRs, because there was no another way to reconstruct the state economy after the civil war. The final aim of the both sides of the former SR party was the socialism – but the Right SRs supposed that it would happen in 100 or more years, while the Left SRs pointed out that CoF and UoB could be used in Russia as well.
In the early 1930s the Russian economy could finally reach the best values of the 1913 Russia (in borders of the KR Russia in 1936) – that’s why a sudden recession which started in August 1932 was so unexpected for the government, which used to the annual growth of economy.
In the summer 1933 it turned out that Russia was still in crisis and the old measures of NEP didn’t help. Though nothing really terrible happened with the Russian economy (it can be compared with the American recession of 1937–38 OTL), but the crisis and upcoming State Duma elections gave a perfect chance for many politicians and parties to criticize the SR coalition.
The most active politician was Boris Savinkov and his national-populist NRPR. Savinkov found allies among the officers, Russian industrialists and peasants. Moreover he tried to reach an agreement with the part of the Right SRs, who didn’t approve moderate and “coward” policy of Kerensky and the alliance with the Left SRs, who just “prevented the creation of the normal capitalist economy” and “sharpen the relations with the USA because of their syndicalist ideas”.
Finally Savinkov could reach an agreement with these radical right circles among the Right SRs – a part of the Right SRs agreed to leave the coalition with the Centrists and the Left SRs and to join NRPR. The main reason of this decision of the right-wing Right SRs circles was the growing popularity of the both left and right radicals in Russia – and downfall of Kerensky’s popularity, who wasn’t able to stop the crisis.
Though the economic crisis in fact was something typical for any market economy, but for many Russians it looked like a flashback from the terrible period of the Civil war. And Savinkov, who represented himself as a protector of the peasants and hero of the Civil war looked like an experienced politician, who would defend the rights of the ordinary people.
Of course, Kerensky knew about Savinkov’s intrigues. And he understood that the next step of the “Vozhd of the peasants” would be a proposition of the coalition in the State Duma – with Savinkov on the top, while Kerensky would stay as a junior partner – and his party would be later absorbed by the NRPR. That’s why the President did an unexpected turn – he decided to get the support of the Senate.
The Senate, which was established in 1921, was a powerless authority with the unknown for the majority of the people officials, chosen from the local Dumas (where the Right-Left SR coalition had the majority) and appointed by the President, who should have represented the regions of the Russia (something like a Federal Assembly in modern Russia – nobody knows these officials). Also there were some aristocrats and capitalists, but they didn’t play a significant role in the Russian policy. Kerensky decided to strengthen the position of the Senate and started to appoint the local landowners, aristocrats and priests from the Orthodox Church here – all these people were too conservative to support Savinkov or Left SRs. Moreover Kerensky decided to grant them a right of veto, which they would use to stop the unwanted legislative proposals – and would approve the propositions of Kerensky and his powerful minority in the future State Duma. The old guard of the Russian politics accepted the proposition of the alliance, but demanded that Kerensky had to make one very short statement…
The Senate got the extra powers just before the elections. On the first of November 1933 Kerensky announced that the period of the NEP was over and Russia started to reorganize its new economy, “…but it is important to point out that according to our economic program the Socialism in the economy as well in the internal policy is not an aim of the Russian Republic…”.
This statement destroyed the Right-Left SRs coalition immediately. On the 4th of November Savinkov’s NRPR got 25% of votes, the Left SR-Menshevik coalition got 15% of votes, Kerensky’s Centrists and remains of the Right SRs got 35% of votes. Backed by the Kadets and various liberal parties, Kerensky had more than 50% of votes. Though it was a real success, but the new coalition couldn’t approve the most important laws (law about budget for example), because it didn’t control 2\3 of votes anymore, as the previous coalition did.
The first legislative proposal of Kerensky’s party about the formation of the government was vetoed by the Senate, as well as the second and the third. The largest internal crisis since the Civil war and Kolchak’s Putsch began in Russia. (In)stability
1933-Winter 1935
Though the rejection of the Socialism as an aim for Russia was only an internal trick of Kerensky, but it also took an attention of other states, especially Germany. De-facto the relations between Russia and Germany, despite the help of Berlin during the civil war was something like OTL Cold War. Though it was clear, that Russia was not able to fight against Germany, but a possible switch to the syndicalist ideas and alliance with the International was a nightmare of the German society, which had awful losses during the Weltkrieg.
It led to the conclusion of the German–Russian NPA for 4 years (similar to German–Polish Non-Aggression Pact of 1934 OTL). The Pact, soon followed by a trade agreement, which renewed the trade agreements between two countries (but not between the whole Mitteleuropa and Russia) improved relations between two countries, which had been complicated because of the limited reorganization of the Russian army. With the new trade agreement, Kerensky could finally launched a new “five-year plan”, but which had to be fulfilled in 3 years. It didn’t mean that Russia could speed up its industrialization – Russia could maintain the rapid growth of the heavy industry only for 3 years, instead of 5 – but Kerensky decided to call it “a new 5-year plan” instead of “3-year plan”. This trick was needed to show the people that even economic crisis couldn’t stop the reorganization of the industry.
But the lack of the new loans and foreign investments, compared with the American investments in the mid-1920s made the realization of the plan very complicated and Kerensky had to grant the industrialists more rights and shorten the rights of workers, what led to the multiple strikes all over the country, which were brutally suppressed – the government wasn’t able to start any negotiations because of the Senate, where the conservative industrialists and businessmen had a majority. And Kerensky needed at least the loans from the Russian banks, which also were controlled by the people, represented in the Senate.
The other measures of the economical recover were still the same – expansion of the army, especially in Siberia and on the Transamurian border (to take as many young men from the villages as possible and use them as a free labor force all over the country, building railways and roads) and limited resettlement of the peasants all over Siberia till the border with Mongolia (something like a mix of a new version of Imperial Stolypin reform and limited Soviet Virgin Lands Campaign).
The political measures were on the contrary very unusual for Kerensky and his Centrist SR-Kadet coalition. The lack of money made Kerensky abandon old politics, bases on granting wide powers in the tax sphere to the local governments – old federative “Oblasts” were replaced with the “Gubernias” (both names means something like “region”, but “Gubernia” was used in the Tsarist era). De-facto another common principle of the old SR coalition – Russia as the federation - was abolished. Though the new state taxes improved the situation in the economy a little and made the situation with the local corruption better – but again it led to the growth of the Left SRs popularity, who claimed that the new tax system should be cancelled.
But the main problem was Kerensky himself. “Our Sanya”, who helped the people to enrich themselves after the awful period of the civil war, wasn’t popular anymore among the new generations of the Russians, who saw his cautious policy in the foreign relations as the cowardice and the lack of political will. The civil war started to look like for many people not as the “war of all against all”, but as the common war of the Russian nation against the traitors and agents of the foreign countries, such as Bolsheviks and other left and often non-Russian elements of the population – the reason was growing nationalism and the active agitation of the Savinkov supporters and the Senate, which started to spend a lot of money for the propaganda of the traditional values in the society – to make the country stronger and to shorten the popularity of the Left SRs.
The important role played the school system, formed by the old tsarist officials and teachers, who didn’t want to change the old principles of education and the history books – they just made it simpler for the young generations of the workers’ and peasants’ children (something like that happened with the school system in Russia after 1991 mostly because of the economic reasons – and I think, could happen in KR Russia too).
The monarchists, who didn’t have any support before, started to consolidate the conservatives, who were shocked by the radicalisation both of the right and left parties in Russia. With the growing nostalgia among the citizens for the pre-1914 life and “old order”, some representatives of the young generation also started to see the monarchy as the way to the prosperity and might of Russia. It has increased the influence and popularity of Cyril Vladimirovich in Russia as well as the whole idea of the Monarchism.
The Russian Orthodox Church also increased its influence. Though it wasn’t harsh suppressed as in OTL, but the atheist SR authorities didn’t try to have any negotiations with the Church. But now, when the Senate had some representatives from the top of the Church, it could expand its influence all over the country, promoting the old ideals of the Holy Russia and fair life of the Russian citizens. These ideas, which became especially popular among the peasantry in the harsh period of the economic crisis were the main reasons, why the increasing popularity of the Russian Church made the government and Kerensky take into consideration its position – especially in the relation with the Left SRs, who still wanted to purge it from the country – though the majority of the peasants were against it.
The new factor, which all the political powers had to account was the newborn Russian nationalism. Based on the ideas of the necessity of the revenge against foreign enemies (Germany, Japan) and traitors (UBD, Central Asian states, in some way also Ukraine and White Ruthenia - though they would also be considered as the main victims of the German imperialism, which were enslaved by Germany), as well as the acceptance of the Great Russian identity and culture as the only possible for the real Russian person, the Russian nationalism became very important for any political power, who wanted to take control over the country (though the role and meaning of the Russian nationalism for Savinkov and for example for Left SRs are absolutely different).
Waiting for the end of the recession and crisis, which should have happened in the summer of 1935, Kerensky hoped that despite the NRPR, Left SRs and Senate, he could partially take back control over the country and even make Russia more centralized and dependent from his regime. But the short border conflict with Japan, which happened in the spring of 1935, ruined all his hopes…
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