The new geography of trade: Globalization’s decline may stimulate local recovery
by Fred Curtis, David Ehrenfeld
Photo credit: Brian Summers Hurricane Igor damaged these railroad tracks in Newfoundland in September 2011. Climate change affects global supply chains through increased intensity and frequency of major storms, which damage low-lying coastal rail lines, a
It is an article of faith that global trade will be an ever-growing presence in the world. Yet this belief rests on shaky foundations. Global trade depends on cheap, long-distance freight transportation. Freight costs will rise with climate change, the end of cheap oil, and policies to mitigate these two challenges.
At first, the increase in freight costs will be bad news for developed and developing nations alike but, as adjustments in the patterns of trade occur, the result is likely to be decreased outsourcing with more manufacturing and food production jobs in North America and the European Union. The pattern of trade will change as increasing transportation costs outweigh traditional sources of comparative advantage, such as lower wages. The new geography of trade will not result from policy or treaties but from the impact of changing environmental conditions due to the growth of the human economy. Global trade can be disrupted by many kinds of natural disaster: the tsunami and nuclear emergency in Japan slowed auto production in the United States, and Australian floods lowered coal exports to China.1,2 The supply chains of global production and distribution are more vulnerable than we would like to admit. Up to now, we have adapted to disruptions and global trade has continued to expand. But greater challenges to global trade lie ahead. Continual growth, or even maintenance, of the current physical volume of trade is unsustainable.
Many goods will be manufactured closer to where they are consumed, as supply chains become more regional and local.3 Petroleum- and transport-intensive products, such as imported food, clothing, appliances, and building supplies will become more expensive; lifestyles and consumer purchasing in developed nations will shift to reflect these changes. Export-oriented nations relying on a limited number of exports to pay for imported necessities will need to become more self-reliant in meeting basic needs.
Oil Supply and Cheap Fuel
The price of crude oil rose from $28 per barrel in 2003 to over $147 in the summer of 2008. In 2008 20 airlines (mostly regional freight carriers) went bankrupt.4 Fuel costs rose from 15 to 35 percent of airline (freight and passenger) operating expenses.5 In the first two months of 2011, air carriers increased fares four times to adjust for rising oil prices.6
In 2007–2008, the cost of trans-Pacific shipping of a standard container by sea went from $3,000 to $8,000.7 In 2010, with oil at half its 2008 price, the Danish shipping company Maersk cut its top cruising speeds in half to reduce fuel costs.8,9 According to economists Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal, every $1 per barrel increase in crude oil prices results in a 1 percent increase in freight transportation costs.7
As economic growth resumes, the demand for oil will increase. The International Energy Agency predicted a 2.5 million barrel per day increase for 2011, the biggest one-year increase in 30 years.10 Chinese oil demand is expected to grow over 10 percent due to economic growth and coal shortages.11 Furthermore, recent decisions in Japan and Germany to decommission nuclear power plants may increase the demand for diesel fuel to run electric generators.12
A number of factors limit oil supply’s ability to both keep up with demand and limit oil price instability. Deepwater drilling is likely to be more expensive in the Gulf of Mexico due to new regulations and higher insurance costs following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.13,14 Deepwater oil will provide at least 25 percent of world supply by 2020.15 The failure to invest in sufficient upstream production facilities has also made an oil-supply crunch likely.
Political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East creates uncertainty about oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions.
And finally, there is peak oil, when production flow rates hit a maximum and decline thereafter. This has already occurred for the majority of oil producing nations and will soon happen for global oil production. Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela are approaching national oil peaks at the same time that their domestic demand for oil is expected to rise significantly.16,17 These exporters will either reduce exports or, like Indonesia and the United Kingdom, become oil importers.17 World Energy Outlook 2010 stated that global conventional oil production peaked in 2006 and is expected to decline from 70 million barrels per day to less than 16 million in 2035.18
We use oil faster than we discover new resources. Global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s.19 The American Joint Forces Command predicts that “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear.”20 According to the United Kingdom Energy Research Centre, “more than two-thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030 … equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on stream every three years.”21 The near- and long-term results will be rising transportation fuel costs, oil-price volatility, and a declining quantity of conventional oil fuels.
Impact of Electric Power Shortages
Electric power shortages and rising prices will also change the pattern of global trade and supply chains. Low-wage exporting economies are generally much less energy efficient than high-income industrial economies. As electricity rates rise with higher fuel costs for coal and oil, production costs will increase faster in low-wage countries than in developed industrial economies. According to energy analyst Thomas Christiansen, “China’s use of energy per unit of gross domestic product is three times that of the United States, five times Japan’s, and eight times Britain’s.”22,23 Rising coal, oil, and electricity prices erode the comparative advantage of low-wage exporters.
Photo credit: Patrick Kelley/U.S. Coast Guard. In May 2010, gas from the damaged Deepwater Horizon wellhead is burned by the drillship Discoverer Enterprise in a process known as flaring. Because of new regulations and higher insurance costs following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, deepwater drilling will likely become more expensive in the Gulf of Mexico.
Moreover, climate-related drought and lowered river flow have reduced hydroelectric power production in some export-oriented nations. In China, reduced rainfall in agricultural areas has prompted plans to divert water from the Three Gorges Dam away from hydroelectric production to irrigation.24 Reduced hydroelectric power has interrupted textile production in Pakistan, oil refining in Venezuela, and appliance production in China. As reported by RTÉ News in May 2011, “Businesses in coastal areas and some inland provinces have grappled with power cuts and full blackouts since March due to surging demand and a drop in hydroelectric output.”25 Climate change is linked to the massive floods in Australia that cut coal exports to China and put upward pressure on Chinese coal prices.26
Finally, when there are hydroelectric power shortages, individuals and manufacturers rely on gasoline or diesel generators, if they can afford the fuel. According to TheWorldnet.info, “In most countries, electricity shortages quickly translate into increased demand for gasoline and diesel as organizations strive to keep computers, elevators, hospitals, refrigeration, and even factory production functioning with back-up generators. Pakistan probably is suffering the worst from electricity shortages, the country simply does not have enough foreign exchange to import large quantities of expensive fuels.”27
Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure
Climate change undermines global trade directly by its effects on transportation infrastructure and indirectly by its impact on energy infrastructure and prices. A 2010 Lloyd’s report stated, “Environmental change (extreme weather events,…changing sea levels and melting glaciers) will generate great threats to critical infrastructure and to transport routes.”28 Though reduced during the recession, CO2 emissions rose dramatically in 2010 to the highest recorded level.29 One manifestation of climate change is increased intensity and frequency of major storms. Hurricanes and typhoons damage low-lying coastal rail lines, airports, oil and gas pipelines, highways used to connect ports and distribution networks, and port facilities—all essential parts of global supply chains.30,31 They seriously affect ships and planes in transit. Heavy rainfall events are increasing in many parts of the world. Insurance claims for flood damage are rising faster than those for other natural disasters.32 Rising sea levels will submerge coastal highways and port facilities.33,34
The damage to roads threatens global trade: roughly 40 percent of the U.S.-China supply chain consists of roads from factories to ports and from ports to distribution networks.7 If freight transport is significantly interrupted, rerouted, or slowed, costs will rise for both manufacturers and retailers using distribution systems that require goods to arrive as they are needed in production or on retail store shelves. The heat effects of climate change also reduce engine efficiency, increase cargo refrigeration needs, and therefore raise fuel costs for trucks, trains, ships, and planes.35 Climate change is thus expected to interrupt and slow freight transportation and make it more expensive.
Oil Substitutes and Climate Mitigation
There are substitutes for conventional oil: coal-to-liquid conversion, gas-to-liquid conversion, corn ethanol and other biofuels, hydrogen, tar sands, and shale oil. Many are technically feasible but all suffer from one or more major problems. They often need large-scale investment and long lead-in periods. Some require subsidies or higher production prices per barrel than conventional oil. Many cause serious environmental damage and high greenhouse gas emissions. Several place great demands on scarce freshwater supplies or require high energy inputs for production.36,37
Energy expert Robert Hirsch and his colleagues estimate that a crash oil mitigation program that begins when oil peaks will have a three-year lag before it adds noticeably to fuel supply. Such a crash program would restore liquid fuel supply close to peak levels within twenty years under the best assumptions.38 Given current supply constraints leading to the loss of cheap oil, and lack of serious policy discussion, investment in alternative sources will not be sufficient to significantly replace diminishing oil supplies in the decades immediately ahead. Thus, even feasible technologies will not avoid higher fuel costs and limited fuel supplies for global freight transport.
The principal way to mitigate climate change is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible. Meaningful climate policies (such as carbon taxes or cap and trade) would raise fossil fuel prices to cut consumption and emissions.
Freight transport may be hard hit by such policies because both air freight and maritime shipping have heavy carbon footprints. In transporting freight by air, each ton of jet fuel burned produces 3.2 tons of CO2.39 As for maritime shipping, container and other transport ships burn bunker fuel, a sludgy, highly polluting petroleum product.
It will be difficult to cut the greenhouse gas emissions from long-distance freight transportation while maintaining the same ton-miles of freight transported per year. There are no commercial low-carbon fuels with the performance characteristics, affordability, and quantitative availability to replace bunker fuel for ships or jet fuel for air freight.39
The basic policy for creating incentives for better efficiency and for using low-carbon fuels is a meaningful (and increasing) price on carbon generally. If such policies were implemented, burning bunker oil and jet fuel would become much more expensive, thus increasing the costs and reducing the competitive advantage of global production and trade. This carbon pricing would occur in addition to supply-based increases in oil prices.
Prospects: Bad News and Good
If large-scale mitigation of peak oil and climate change is not feasible soon, what will happen? Given current investments in the existing pattern of trade and the high costs of reorienting it, change will be resisted, with resulting widespread economic disruption. But change will occur. Clearly, increased fuel costs and higher transport risks will cause supply chains to shorten and long-distance trade to decline. Initially, there will be shifts in transport modes—truck to rail, air to water and rail—designed to preserve trade routes. But more fundamental adaptations are already starting to take place to reduce or replace long-distance trade. Beginning with the oil price and transport cost increases in 2007–2008, some companies began rethinking their global supply chains, and a few shifted to local suppliers. Some manufacturers have opened new furniture, steel, and auto plants in the United States or Mexico to feed the U.S. market.40 In May 2011, Volkswagen inaugurated its huge Passat assembly plant in Tennessee, “as part of our effort to manufacture more products locally.”41 The plant is expected to generate, directly and indirectly, 12,000 jobs. These changes in supply chains are motivated by considerations of corporate profits.
Manufacturers may relocate production closer to either suppliers of key raw materials or major markets to minimize transportation miles and costs.42,43 In 2008 some steel mills in the United States increased domestic production by directly importing iron ore from Brazil. This system bypassed the expensive trans-Pacific shipment of iron ore from Brazil to China and then of steel from China to the United States.7,40
The resurgence of domestic manufacturing in developed nations could provide employment growth, especially for blue-collar workers. However, employment may decline in current low-wage manufacturing exporters as rising transportation costs make them less competitive.
Nations may respond with protectionist policies to changes in trade patterns. In 2008, as food prices rose (due in part to extreme weather, corn ethanol production, and rising oil prices), several grain-exporting nations banned exports of cereal crops.44 In June 2011 China banned the export of diesel fuel in order to have enough on hand to power electric generators in the face of expected brownouts.18 With rising transport costs, nations are likely to subsidize energy or manufacturing to preserve exports and jobs. Such export bans and subsidies contravene provisions of the World Trade Organization and many trade treaties such as NAFTA.
While corporations have responded to rising oil prices with some changes in supply chains, national governments have not responded in kind. Current climate-policy negotiations are ineffective despite rapidly growing greenhouse gas emissions. Only the United Kingdom and Sweden have identified oil depletion as a key economic issue and begun to discuss responses. Trade policies such as the Korea and Colombia Free Trade Agreements with the United States are predicated on the assumption of cheap fuel, low transportation costs, and transportation-compatible weather patterns—in other words, business as usual. Thus, there are at present few national and no international policy responses to the imminent threats to global trade.
There is, however, a second, more local, noncorporate response. This response is found in the Relocalization and Transition Towns movements now springing up in many developed countries. It is a bottom-up response that includes individuals and municipalities planning for a post-peak-oil future and altering their way of life, buying locally made products as much as possible, reducing consumption and acquisition, and increasing self-sufficiency within communities that produce many of the goods and services they consume. The resurgence in the numbers of young people going into farming in the United States is an example.
Relocalization strategies include local currencies, community land trusts, decentralized alternative energy development, water conservation and reuse, local food production, and new, locally oriented business networks.
Photo credit: Jason Rodman. Relocalization strategies include local currencies, community land trusts, decentralized alternative energy development, water conservation and reuse, and local food production. Shanghai, China, now produces much of its own vegetables within its urban limits.
Patterns of adaptation will differ from place to place. Initially, there will be heavy and unpredictable impacts on many developing nations that currently depend on foreign cash earned for commodity exports, or that import much of their food. Yet every country is different.
Even large urban complexes can provide a surprising quantity of their own food. In China, concerns over rising food prices (and food safety) have caused a boom in online sales of vegetable seeds.45 Shanghai now produces much of its own vegetables within its urban limits, as do cities in sub-Saharan Africa.46
If a developing country imports many goods and services, it has to pay for them, probably in part with money earned from commodity exports. When those exports are reduced by high shipping costs, some countries will have the capacity to rapidly increase local production of essentials for local consumption. Others, less fortunate, will take longer.
It is now critical for economic planners, laypersons, and governments to recognize that long-term energy and climate realities will impose limits on the global movement of goods. Trade pacts, like the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and business models, like Walmart with its transoceanic supply chains, will make less sense as the foundations of global trade are undermined. This is not the result of either ideology or policy. Only when we accept these realities can we design and rebuild less vulnerable patterns of production and trade throughout the world. Nearly every country has existing examples of sound, regional development that can be used as models.
Global trade will not disappear, but as it wanes and as supply chains shorten, the importance of regional and local economies will increase. Manufacturing and food production for domestic consumption in the United States and other developed nations (and regions within nations) will regain an importance not seen since the first half of the twentieth century. Security strategies will be adjusted to reflect the increased role of domestic production in national affairs. We should plan now for these inevitable changes. Crises bring more than trouble—they bring opportunities.
Acknowledgments
We thank Anne-Marie Slaughter for her encouragement and helpful suggestions.
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http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/1042
Local Economies for a Global Future
Yes, we need to relocalize—but that doesn’t mean we're headed for provincialism. Anticipating our near-heavy, far-light future.
posted Jan 19, 2012
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Photo courtesy of Trim Tab
This article is about a simple, singular idea, yet the significance of the idea to modern society is profound and far-reaching. Here it is: In the near future anything heavy will become intensely local while at the same time the limits to things that are ‘light’, ideas, philosophies, information will travel even further than today—literally and figuratively. This is a new paradigm for humanity and it has huge implications for the complete reordering of society.
Environmentalists, economists, and sociologists agree: we are in an incredible state of flux, and this is simply the beginning. The planet is undergoing massive change and critical resources are diminishing, conditions to which the human race must respond. Population growth, resource scarcity and climate change will propel us, whether we like it or not, toward a new energy, food and resource paradigm. The world’s economies, based on cheap plentiful energy and the exploitation of people and the environment are starting to crumble. We are beginning an era in which the cozy assumptions of the last half-century are turned upside down, a time when the institutions and technologies that run our civilization are re-engineered. To understand how radical this new paradigm will be, let’s explore similar re-orderings in the past.
Thousands of Years of Human History – A Heavy-Near, Light-Near Paradigm
For most of human history, everything in a person’s life was intensely local. People all over the earth had a deep understanding of their place and the world that they could literally see, touch and feel. Moving things that were physically heavy was difficult and limited first to what people could carry, then the limits of domesticated animals. Culture too was intensely local—with peoples only a short distance away who they couldn’t understand due to differences in language and customs. These cultural differences emerged in relation to climate, the range of species and other place-based distinctions. Oral cultures, by necessity, stayed close to home, keeping beliefs and ideology very local – sometimes as local as a family group or small village. The world had hundreds of languages and thousands of dialects and even more foundational stories, creation myths and ways of looking at the world. Most of human existence has operated under this paradigm of ‘Heavy Near and Light near’.
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There were intermittent exceptions of course—moments when bursts of innovation launched our species on great journey’s (almost like punctuated equilibrium) the great Polynesian migrations and Viking explorers come to mind, but even they after finding new islands for habitation typically settled back into intensely local realities.
Population during this massive era of our species history was relatively stable, our impact on the planet largely within the carrying capacity of each place we lived. But as inventions of our intellect compounded, the paradigm was someday destined to end.
Heavy-‘Nearish’, Light-Somewhat Far
Slowly as new inventions arose and were refined, our species began to move some physical objects (heavy) and ideas and beliefs (light) across the globe. The emergence of agriculture, the domestication of animals and the written word made change inevitable. During the rise of the first great civilizations, resources like gold, jewels, salt and spices were transported through caravan, sailing vessel and on the back of slaves. With them traveled early ideas including the migration of all the world’s great religions. The circumference of travel – both ‘heavy and light’ grew in proportion to the size and influence of the empire behind it. Yet energy during this era was still a precious commodity and because of the extreme costs to move goods and even people, it was only the most valuable things that really traveled far—and only the richest and most powerful members of the society that benefited. For most of humanity this second age was still intensely local with but mere glimpses of world’s beyond their own.
From the age of enlightenment and the industrial revolution to today, ideas, technologies and inventions have allowed us to radically remake the world.
By the middle Ages, some ideas (particularly religious beliefs) began to spread more widely. Exploration or conquest began to transcend language barriers. But religious and political leaders held many of the most important ideas closely, limiting the general public’s access to them in order to control their populations and to keep ‘divine information’ in the hands of the ‘anointed’.
So even widely traveled belief systems like Christianity and Islam were localized in a different way, carefully released and controlled by the intellectual elite. Priests, monks and royals were the typical gatekeepers.
With the rise of empire based on the success of agriculture, population quickly grew—sometimes outstripping local ecological carrying capacity as happened in the middle east and parts of the Mediterranean, but for the most part the planet did not feel too many ill effects from our species societies under this overarching paradigm—there were simply too few of us and our technologies not yet transformative to planetary health.
Heavy-Far, Light-Far
Most of the history we now study is centered on the huge changes that have occurred globally in the span of just a few hundred years. From the age of enlightenment and the industrial revolution to today, ideas, technologies and inventions have allowed us to radically remake the world. The beginning of this age often saw violent clashes between civilizations still operating in earlier paradigms and the civilizations that had rushed ahead (the old paradigms always lost). The ‘civilized’ speech of empires eclipsed tribal languages and beliefs the world over, which weakened and in most cases disappeared. Large-scale manufacturing models called for inexpensive human labor and the scourge of human slavery spread.
Gutenberg paved the way for many modern inventions when he introduced the printing press in the mid-15th century, allowing language and ideas to be distributed widely for the first time in human history. The Industrial Revolution enabled the most dramatic change in our ability to move the fruits of our labor, first with the steam engine and eventually with the combustion engine. Advances in weaponry—gunpowder in particular changed the rules forever. Suddenly, anything we made or conceived of could reach people in the farthest corners of the planet simply by shipping it overland or overseas. The United States and Canada as new nations were some of the first products of this new paradigm and the cultural mythologies that exist with us today (and are so hard for us to shake) are a result of this timing.
We could—and did—ship anything anywhere. We could and did share ideas and stories with others across the globe. There was no limit placed on the distribution of anything.
After thousands of years in the first paradigm, then a couple thousand years in the second, we fully transformed to this third paradigm in the span of just a few hundred years—with exponential acceleration happening in the last one hundred years—matched graphically with the huge explosion in human population. Each decade the world became smaller and smaller—and the human toll on the environment suddenly tipped beyond what was sustainable. All of this was made possible through the availability of cheap, plentiful energy—borrowing on the stored carbon of millions of years of dead organisms partnered with human ingenuity and invention that did not see nor believed in limits. Moving heavy objects like stone, concrete, furniture and even people require enormous inputs of energy. Coal and petroleum met the need and easily satisfied the demand. Ideas—just like goods, traveled the globe; first through printed publications—but then through even more powerful mediums—the radio, the phone, the television and finally the computer. In the last century ideas finally began to move not only across physical boundaries—but across socio-economic, racial and gender boundaries as well, with the average person in modern society having access to information and ideas from anywhere on the planet.
By the 1980s and 1990s, we could—and did—ship anything anywhere. We could and did share ideas and stories with others across the globe. There was no limit placed on the distribution of anything—indeed our society completely re-ordered itself around this reality within the span of a single lifetime—seemingly completely oblivious to the long-term disruptions it would cause.
Gradually, in the midst of this “success,” people questioned the sanity of the paradigm—and the modern environmental movement was born only 30 years ago. And here we are—a world with 7 billion people, rapidly closing on 8 billion. A world where the era of cheap energy is quickly disappearing and the economic house of cards built on it as well.
What’s next?
Heavy Near – Light Far – the Responsible Paradigm
We are about to take a dramatic leap into the next era: the modern age of Heavy-Near, Ideas-Far. In a world where energy is increasingly scarce and expensive we simply won’t be able to transport goods and people over far distances. Yet we’ll prioritize energy use for technologies that bring us together virtually – that allow us to connect and share regardless of the distances between communities. The world is about to get simultaneously bigger and smaller depending on the field of human activity concerned. Imagine an America where people stick much closer to home. Where we aren’t defined by the open road, but by the quality and depth of our neighborhoods and communities. Where the majority of the things in our lives – our clothes, furniture, food and building materials come from close at hand rather than being globally sourced. We eat according to seasonal variations and see the reemergence of incredible regional diversity in architectural and cultural expressions.
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At the same time it won’t be a return to provincialism and hierarchical society—an intensely localized economy will be punctuated by key global technologies that keep us connected, informed and up-to-date—with uniform access to information and ideas despite socio-economic, gender or racial backgrounds. The possibilities for environmental and social/cultural healing is immense. Yet, this radical re-ordering won’t be easy for us and will at times be violently resisted by those rooted in the current paradigm. I believe that the riots we have been seeing around the world are natural permutations of this emerging paradigm—a world where the average person is super-connected with one another and informed—and frustrated with the status quo world power that refuses to change.
Here are some of the characteristics of the new re-ordering as I see it:
- The ‘global economy’ as its now defined will shrink rapidly between 2012-2030, as energy scarcity will limit our ability to ship things all over the world. In a short span of time the cost of transporting human or material cargoes over any appreciable distance will simply be too high and the market will begin to correct itself. In its place will emerge strongly local ‘living economies’ with an emphasis on local materials, local knowledge, durability and craft.
- Super-sized retailers and one-stop shops will all but disappear. If Wal Mart, Costco, Target and others like them survive, its because they will have learned to operate on a new business model based on locally produced goods globally managed through information management technologies (heavy near, light far).
- As we focus again on food and goods that can be grown or made locally it will have the positive effect of reinvigorating local cultures and revealing regional variations. Artisanship will reemerge and quality will trump quantity. Food and drink will become intensely local—inspiring the re-emergence of creative cuisines and local flavors. Wine from France or Australia will once again be a true luxury here—but thankfully equally good vintages will be available close to home!
- ‘Winning’ technologies (as defined by those technologies we’ll continue to invest in) will be those that require less energy to make and operate relative to the benefits they provide. Web-enabled cell phones are a perfect present-day example, as they put a world of information in the hands of any user and draw very little energy in the process, which is why they already are ubiquitous in third world countries. Small solar panels will power hand-held electronics and tablets. Larger machines (cars, elevators, HVAC systems, etc.) will either be completely re-engineered to be super-efficient or will disappear. Larger utility infrastructure (regional energy grids and regional waste treatment plants etc.) will give way to a network of decentralized, distributed technologies.
- The era of the automobile will finally end. Expect a rapid ‘de-autoization’ of our culture over the next twenty years- despite the introduction of better electric vehicles and hybrids. While some larger specialty vehicles will continue to be supported (I think we’ll keep trains and specialized automobiles for key tasks like ambulances and fire suppression) the original mechanical horse—the bicycle, will emerge as the world’s transportation tool of choice even here in the US (as it is already in many places). Electric assist will extend our ranges, but there is still nothing more efficient than a person on a bike.
- As we become more globally connected via electronic information exchanges, we will become more physically disconnected beyond a small radius of travel. The costs of mechanized transport will limit our ability to travel overseas and relocate on a whim, but virtual communication we will expand our ability to share ideas with our across-the-world neighbors. So while you may increasingly talk and share ideas with people in other countries the chances of physically visiting them will diminish. The flip side is that we will know our own communities much more intimately while maintaining open dialog with our fellow global citizens. Information will become even more democratic and widely shared.
- The ultra-rich will continue to be the exception to most of the rules. Wealthy individuals will pay— dearly—or the privilege of globetrotting and having heavy special goods shipped from afar. Yet in a world where the exploitation of the environment and other people’s is no longer tolerated, what it means to be ‘rich’ will begin to be redefined as well.
- It goes without saying that the network of Certified Living Buildings around North America will only grow and become beacons of hope for the future of our homes, buildings and offices.
Making Global Lemonade
We delivered ourselves here on the very vehicles that we’re managing to make obsolete. So it’s up to us to plan for this next natural cycle of innovation so that we can embrace it mindfully. The path I’ve described is of course by no means certain. The future could spiral in many directions—some quite dire. But I am hopeful of the path that I think is quite possible. Heavy Near—Light Far.
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Photo courtesy of Trim Tab
I believe we will return to an intensely local way of living, and one that is globally conscious. We will continue to innovate, and we will share our new ideas with friends we’ll never meet. We’ll eat and wear what’s available in our region, and we’ll create culturally rich communities as we do so. We’ll work with colleagues who live in various countries around the world, and we’ll embrace the beauty of our virtual collaborations. We’ll live in a world of relative scarcity compared to what we had in the 20th century, but we’ll be more connected and abundant from deeper connections to place and culture and a proper relationship with the natural world. We’ll rely on the human machine and ‘current solar income’ to propel us forward, and enjoy the vitality that follows. The transition likely won’t be easy, and we’ll weather many storms, but there is a chance, I believe, to find equilibrium on this planet again.
This article by Jason F. McLennan was originally published in the Fall 2011 issue of Trim Tab, the International Living Future Institute's magazine for transformational people and design. To see this and other issues of Trim Tab, go to https://ilbi.org/education/trim-tab.
Interested?
http://www.yesmagazine.org/happiness/local-economies-for-a-global-future