4월에 원-달러 환율 1200원대로 내려간다 - 노무라 증권 보고서

[아마겟돈]

Real, Won, Australian Dollar to Rebound From April, Nomura Says

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By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The South Korean won and Brazilian real will lead a rebound in emerging-market currencies from April in anticipation of an improvement in global economies, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.

“April is a possible turnaround,” Simon Flint, head of global foreign exchange research in Singapore, said at an investors’ forum in Beijing today. “From April going on, you should start to be more aggressive in taking risks.”

Brazilian real will strengthen 11 percent to 2.15 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2009, the Korean won will rise 26 percent to 1,200 and the Australian dollar will gain 15 percent to 75 U.S. cents versus the greenback, forecasts provided by Nomura show.

All but two of 26 most-traded emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg data have fallen against the dollar in the past year, led by a 41 percent tumble in the Iceland krona and a 37 percent decline in the won, as fallout from the global credit rout slowed economies and prompted investors to sell riskier assets. Policy makers have lowered borrowing costs and increased fiscal spending to shore up confidence in their economies.

Investors should pay more attention to “risky currencies” that may rally early as global economies may bottom between the second and third quarters, Flint said, citing Nomura’s leading indicators that suggest a trough in economic activity in April.

“For risky Asia like Korea and Indonesia, their currencies will start to recover when global risk environment improves which we would expect to be pronounced from April,” Flint said. A recovery in the Taiwan dollar and the Singapore dollar may follow in the third quarter as their economies are “most exposed” to global trade cycle, he added.

China’s yuan will remain stable against the U.S. currency in the next six months before resuming its appreciation against the dollar, Flint forecast.

“Beyond six months, we think it will appreciate,” he said. “China is re-orientating itself from an export-led economy to a domestic consumption-led economy. nulle important aspect of this will be to have a stronger currency.”

[실타래]

4월에가 아니고 4월부터 원화 환율이 회복되기 시작할 것이라고 되어 있네요. 그런데 글로벌 경기가 4월부터 회복되기 시작한다는 것은 어디에서 유추한 것인지 알 수가 없군요. 연말에 1,200원 수준이 될것이라고 되어있구요.

[박준명]

게다가 세계경제가 2, 3분기가 바닥이고, 4월부터 세계 경기가 개선된다는 가정 하에서 나온 것이네요...

[투명한블루]

작년 11월인가? 골드만삭스의 자료에서는 올해 한국 원화가 1300~ 1400원에 머물것이라는 자료가 있었습니다.

[악파트]

[1] “risky currencies” that MAY rally early as global economies MAY bottom between the second and third quarters. [2] when global risk environment improves which we WOULD expect to be pronounced from April. 권위 있는 전문가처럼 말을 하지 싶었는데, 표현에는 온갖 완곡어법이 충만하네요.^^ 영어는 조동사랑 법(mood)이 중요!

[오일공사]

may 와 would 의 향연인가요 ??? ^^

[도랑치기]

전 세계적으로 경기는 너무 안좋고 이미 수출은 길이 거의 다 막힌상태에서 북한 미사일 발사하고 한반도에 장기 긴장이 토착될텐데 믿어지지않는 보고서입니다.

[리치파워]

우리나라만 어려운게 아니잖아요. 미국이 훨 더 어렵습니다.

[changs-84]

미국이 어려우면 우리나라도 당연히 어렵습니다.

[사막의신기루]

미국이 이라크에 있던 전쟁 자원 다 걷어 들인다는데 어디로 보내려나. 설마 극동 아시아는 아니겠죠.

[나바보]

Korean economy is linked more with China, Who's worry about filthy Americans?

[vision]

노무라증권이 달러 환투기좀 하고 싶은가보군요. ^^