[BasketBall Insider] NBA’s Best/Worst Case 2015-16 Salary Cap 시나리오

[daeng]

안녕하세요, 출처는 BasketBalll Insider 입니다.

2015-16 시즌 NBA 팀 샐러리 캡은 약 $67M까지 증가될꺼라 예상하는가운데, 꽤 많은 팀들이 다음과 같은 빅네임 free agents를 노릴 수 있을 정도의 cap room이 생길꺼라 예상이 됩니다.  
Notable FAs: LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Jimmy Butler (restricted), DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe and Reggie Jackson (restricted), Brandon Knight (restricted) and Tobias Harris (restricted) 등등

또한 LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, Jeff Green, Arron Afflalo, Luol Deng, Thaddeus Young and Roy Hibbert 등이 2015-16 시즌에 플레이어 옵션을 행사할수있는데 이 것 또한 각 팀의 cap room에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.

아래는 각 "팀 자금 기준별"로  cap room 베스트 / 워스트 시나리오를 분석한 자료입니다. 각 팀별로 얼마나 자금적인 여유가 생길 수 있으며 그러기 위해서는 누구를 포기해야 하고 누구를 계약할 수 있는 지 등등의 자료가 나와있어서 관심있는 분들을 위해서 여기에 올려봅니다.

참고로 Best case는 팀 샐러리 캡 room을 최대한 높여서 여유 자금을 높일 수 있는 시나리오이고 Worst는 샐러리 캡이 낮아져서 쓸 수 있는 자금이 거의 없어지는 시나리오 입니다. 물론 worst case를 선택하는게 팀 여유 자금은 없어지지만 팀을 위한 바른 선택이 될 경우가 많은 듯 싶습니다.

아래 원문 링크 참고 하시길 바랍니다.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nbas-bestworst-case-2015-16-cap-projections/

Team	Best	Worst	Comment
Philadelphia 76ers	$42.3 mil	$36.5 mil	Cap room이 있는 Sixers의 고민: "도대체 누구한테 얼마나 써야하지?"
Portland Trail Blazers	$39.3 mil	$0	포틀은 대부분의 cap room을 알드리지 계약으로 쓸 것으로 보임
Dallas Mavericks	$32.9 mil	$0	Best case: Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton and Al-Farouq Aminu를 잡지 않는 것임.  Worst case: 만일 모두 잡는 다면 cap room은 $0 예상.
Cleveland Cavaliers	$30.7 mil	$6.7 mil	Best case: 클블에게는 거의 재앙인 LeBron James and Kevin Love를 잡지 않는 경우임.. Worst Case: 만일 Tristan Thompson and Love을 놔준다면 (브롱이는 그대로 보유), $6.7 mil 정도의 cap 여유 (Matt Dellavedova 보유).
Detroit Pistons	$29.2 mil	$17.0 mil	Best case: no Greg Monroe.  Worst case: 멤버들 그대로 유지 하지만 no Anthony Tolliver, Caron Butler and others.
Boston Celtics	$29.2 mil	$15.0 mil	Worst case: Jeff Green and Jameer Nelson 옵트 인 행사 팀잔류, 또한 Phil Pressey and Jae Crowder 보유하나 no Brandan Wright or Brandon Bass.
San Antonio Spurs	$27.9 mil	$0	Spurs free agents Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green등과 계약을 해야할지 결정해야함, 계약하게 된다면 더이상의 Cap room은 없음.
Los Angeles Lakers	$27.3 mil	$14.9 mil	Best case: 레이커스로써는 바람직하지 않은 케이스이지만 first-round pick 을 Phoenix Suns 넘겨줄경우.  Worst case:  pick과 함께, Jordan Hill, Ed Davis 옵트 인 행사 (팀 잔류), Robert Sacre and Jordan Clarkson 도 함께 그럼 Cap room은 $14.9M
New York Knicks	$26.4 mil	$12.9 mil	Worst case:  J.R. Smith 옵트 인(팀잔류) 그리고 Iman Shumpert and Quincy Acy 보유
Indiana Pacers	$26.0 mil	$0	Worst case: Roy Hibbert and David West 옵트 인 행사 (팀 잔류), 그럼 Cap room은 $0.
New Orleans Pelicans	$26.0 mil	$0 mil	Eric Gordon의 옵트아웃과 Omer Asik의 재계약 여부가 영향을 끼칠 예상.
Orlando Magic	$24.4 mil	$9.8 mil	Worst case:Tobias Harris, Kyle O’Quinn, Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour and others 보유
Memphis Grizzlies	$23.3 mil	$3.4 mil	Worst case: Marc Gasol 재계약을 위해서 아마도 $18M 이상 cap room 투자 예상..
Atlanta Hawks	$23.1 mil	$6.1 mil	Worst case: Paul Millsap, Pero Antic and DeMarre Carroll 재계약 plus Mike Muscala’s non-guaranteed salary.
Miami HEAT	$22.7 mil	$0	Heat는 꽤 많은 Cap space를 유지할수있음 단 Dwyane Wade와 Luol Deng 나가는 조건하에.
Milwaukee Bucks	$18.1 mil	$3.4 mil	Best case: Jared Dudley 옵트아웃과 Brandon Knight 놔줘야함
Charlotte Hornets	$17.6 mil	$0	Best case: 금전적으로 best case이지만 실제 팀을 위해서는 최선책이 아닌 Al Jefferson 옵트아웃. Worst case: 금전적으로 최악이지만 팀을 위해서는 최선책인 Al Jefferson & Gerald Henderson 옵트 인 (팀 잔류).
Toronto Raptors	$15.9 mil	$0	Best Case: the Raptors 는 아마도 Amir Johnson, Lou Williams등등을 놔줘야 함.
Minnesota Timberwolves	$15.4 mil	$0	Worst case :Wolves 아마도 cap room 0 예상 만약 Thaddeus Young and Chase Budinger 옵트 인 행사시(팀 잔류)
Phoenix Suns	$13.5 mil	$0	Best case:  no Goran Dragic, Gerald Green and no Lakers’ pick.
Utah Jazz	$12.8 mil	$0	The Jazz는 Enes Kanter, Trevor Booker and others 재계약 연봉 조정을 통해서 cap space를 늘릴 수 있을 듯.
Houston Rockets	$9.8 mil	$0	Best case : Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer, Kostas,Papanikolaou, Josh Smith 등등을 보내주는 것.
Sacramento Kings	$8.0 mil	$0 mil	Derrick Williams를 포기하는 것이 캡 스페이스를 늘리기 위한 첫 스탭.
Denver Nuggets	$6.1 mil	$0	Best case: Wilson Chandler의 연봉 조정
Los Angeles Clippers	$5.0 mil	$0 mil	Clippers가 cap space를 늘릴 수 있는 유일한 방법은 Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford의 연봉 조정과 Jordan Farmar의 옵트 아웃.
Brooklyn Nets	$4.7 mil	$0	Best case : Brook Lopez 와 Alan Anderson 옵트 아웃, all free agents (텔레토비치를 포함한) 의 연봉 조정 – 현재 가장 unrealistic한 salary를 지급하고 있음.
Chicago Bulls	$3.9 mil	$0	별로 원치 않은 Best case:Jimmy Butler를 놔줘야함 —그래도  Mid-Level Exception보다 적음.
Golden State Warriors	$0	$0	골스는 이미 Cap room이 오버되며 드레이몬드 그린과 재계약을 해야하는 문제가 있음.
Oklahoma City Thunder	$0	$0	오클은 레지잭슨과 제계약유무와 상관없이 Cap room이 오버될예상.
Washington Wizards	$0	$0	워싱턴은 Paul Pierce와 Garrett Temple이 옵트아웃을 하더라도, Cap room이 오버될예상.

NBA’s Best/Worst Case 2015-16

Cap Projections

By Eric Pincus

On December 27, 2014

The NBA’s salary cap projects to climb to roughly $67 million for the 2015-16 season.

A number of teams may have sizable spending power to chase a free agent list that should include players like LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Jimmy Butler (restricted), DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe and Reggie Jackson (restricted), Brandon Knight (restricted) and Tobias Harris (restricted) among others.

Player options could also see LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, Jeff Green, Arron Afflalo, Luol Deng, Thaddeus Young and Roy Hibbert hit free agency as well.

The following details the best- and worst-case scenarios for cap room next summer, noting that many teams can choose to go under or stay over.  Player options, team options, non-guaranteed contracts, trades and free agent decisions once July hits will determine exactly how much each team has to spend.

Team	Best	Worst	Comment
Philadelphia 76ers	$42.3 mil	$36.5 mil	The Sixers have cap room, but will they spend much of it?
Portland Trail Blazers	$39.3 mil	$0	The Blazers would rather have a major portion of their cap space going to LaMarcus Aldridge.
Dallas Mavericks	$32.9 mil	$0	The best-case cap number has Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton and Al-Farouq Aminu off Dallas’ books.  If the team stays together as is, the Mavs may have no cap room.
Cleveland Cavaliers	$30.7 mil	$6.7 mil	Best case is Armageddon for the Cavaliers, with both LeBron James and Kevin Love off their books.  If Tristan Thompson and Love leave, but not James, they could near $6.7 mil in cap (with Matt Dellavedova’s hold).
Detroit Pistons	$29.2 mil	$17.0 mil	Josh Smith’s $5.4 mil waived amount will shrink based on what he signs for with another team. Best case includes no Greg Monroe.  Worst case has no Anthony Tolliver, Caron Butler and others.
Boston Celtics	$29.2 mil	$15.0 mil	Lower number assumes Jeff Green and Jameer Nelson do not opt out, plus Phil Pressey and cap hold of Jae Crowder, but no Brandan Wright or Brandon Bass.
San Antonio Spurs	$27.9 mil	$0	The Spurs have to decide on free agents Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, etc.
Los Angeles Lakers	$27.3 mil	$14.9 mil	Best case is a lousy case for the Lakers with their first-round pick going to the Phoenix Suns.  Worst case includes the pick, Jordan Hill and Ed Davis opting in, along with Robert Sacre and Jordan Clarkson.
New York Knicks	$26.4 mil	$12.9 mil	Worst case includes J.R. Smith and cap holds for Iman Shumpert and Quincy Acy.
Indiana Pacers	$26.0 mil	$0	Worst case assumes Roy Hibbert and David West do not opt out.
New Orleans Pelicans	$26.0 mil	$0 mil	Eric Gordon’s opt-out and Omer Asik’s cap hold will decide how much space the Pelicans have or do not have.
Orlando Magic	$24.4 mil	$9.8 mil	Worst case includes cap holds for Tobias Harris and Kyle O’Quinn, along with Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour and others.
Memphis Grizzlies	$23.3 mil	$3.4 mil	Worst case includes an approximate $18 mil cap hold for Marc Gasol.
Atlanta Hawks	$23.1 mil	$6.1 mil	Lower number includes cap holds for Paul Millsap, Pero Antic and DeMarre Carroll plus Mike Muscala’s non-guaranteed salary.
Miami HEAT	$22.7 mil	$0	The HEAT could have sizable space if both Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng leave.
Milwaukee Bucks	$18.1 mil	$3.4 mil	Best case assumes Jared Dudley opts out, and Brandon Knight walks.
Charlotte Hornets	$17.6 mil	$0	Best case isn’t best case for the Hornets, with Al Jefferson opting out and his ~$21 mil cap hold off their books.  Worst case is probably preferable — with Jefferson (and Gerald Henderson) opting in.
Toronto Raptors	$15.9 mil	$0	To max out their cap space, the Raptors would need to part ways with Amir Johnson, Lou Williams and others.
Minnesota Timberwolves	$15.4 mil	$0	The Wolves aren’t likely to have cap room if Thaddeus Young and Chase Budinger opt in.
Phoenix Suns	$13.5 mil	$0	Best case includes no Goran Dragic, Gerald Green and no Lakers’ pick.
Utah Jazz	$12.8 mil	$0	The Jazz can get under the cap by cutting ties with Enes Kanter, Trevor Booker and others.
Houston Rockets	$9.8 mil	$0	Best case includes no Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer, Kostas,Papanikolaou, Josh Smith, etc.
Sacramento Kings	$8.0 mil	$0 mil	Renouncing Derrick Williams would be the first step for the Kings to get under the cap.
Denver Nuggets	$6.1 mil	$0	Best case includes cutting Wilson Chandler with $2 mil guaranteed.
Los Angeles Clippers	$5.0 mil	$0 mil	Clippers are only under the cap if they cut partially-guaranteed Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford and Jordan Farmar opts out.
Brooklyn Nets	$4.7 mil	$0	Best case presumes Brook Lopez and Alan Anderson opt out, and all free agents renounced including Mirza Teletovic – an unrealistic amount less than the Mid-Level Exception.
Chicago Bulls	$3.9 mil	$0	Another non-desired best case, with Jimmy Butler off the books — still less than the Mid-Level Exception.
Golden State Warriors	$0	$0	The Warriors are over the cap, and need to re-sign Draymond Green.
Oklahoma City Thunder	$0	$0	The Thunder should be over the cap, with or without Reggie Jackson.
Washington Wizards	$0	$0	Even if Paul Pierce and Garrett Temple opt out, the Wizards project to be over the cap.

[BIGJT]

디조던을 노리는팀이 못잡을경우 아미르나 브랜든 롸잇쪽을 노리는것도 좋아보이고... / 카와이 메튜스 드레이먼드그린 지미버틀러 더마레케롤 같은 피지컬있는 3번을 노리는 팀은 현실적으로 저들을 얻기 힘들다면 ... 이른 타이밍에 제이크라우더를 S&T로 얻는것도 이득일꺼라고 생각합니다 에인지가 큰이득을 보려고 하겠지만... 이런타입 선수들 몸값이 뻥튀기 되기전에 질러보는것도 괜찮을꺼 같습니다 / 포틀이 알드리지와 메튜스를 잡는다면... 엘런크랩도 있고... 바툼의 만기를 이용 하지 않을까 싶기도 합니다 ...