As North Korea plans missile launch, South Korea's conservatives edge out liberals

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As North Korea plans missile launch, South Korea's conservatives edge out liberals

Conservative candidates did surprisingly well in elections seen as a test of South Korea's policies. Economy and North Korea may be factors.

By Donald Kirk, Correspondent / April 12, 2012

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Park Geun-hye, head of the ruling Saenuri Party's interim governing body, center, and her party members arrive at the National Cemetery in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, April 12. The party claimed a majority Thursday in a parliamentary vote that centered on domestic issues but had implications for Seoul's relationship with the North.

Ahn Young-joon/AP

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Seoul, South Korea

The daughter of South Korea’s longest ruling dictator emerged today as the front-runner for president after conservative candidates did surprisingly well in elections seen as a test of the government’s policies.

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Park Geun-hye, whose father, Park Chung-hee, seized power in a military coup in 1961 and ruled with an iron fist until his assassination by his intelligence chief in 1979, was clearly relieved by the outcome of elections for all 300 seats in the National Assembly. At the same time, she distanced herself from the country’s president, Lee Myung-bak, whose pro-business policies have alienated many voters. 

At a news conference, Ms. Park promised to “start anew with the mindset that we will be remembered as sinners if we revert to the old ways.”

5 key people to watch in North Korea

Forecast by many observers to fall behind the opposition Democratic United Party, her Saenuri Party won a slim majority of 152 seats against 127 for the opposition. The Saenuri, roughly translated as New Frontier, is the name for the conservative grouping, which last year changed its name from Hanara or Grand National Party as polls showed President Lee’s sharply declining popularity.

The election results should bring an end to attempts by government foes to invalidate a free trade agreement with the US that was approved earlier by the assembly. Conservatives, led by Park, may also be inclined to press for negotiations with North Korea, which has totally rejected overtures by the Lee government in view of its hard-line policies, including refusal to provide food aid.

“The Saenuri rebranded themselves,” says Michael Breen, author of a book on Korean customs and culture. “Right now Park Geun-hye is the most likely candidate to be the next president. The Democrats are disunited.”

Park promised reform for millions of citizens who see the conglomerates that dominate the economy as enriching their owners at the expense of the poor and middle class.

“Never again,” she vowed, “will we waste time on issues that are not relevant to people's lives.”

Young people in particular, however, doubt such assurances. “I am disappointed by the election results,” says Chang Sung-eun, who works for a small company. “I think we have to change. I want new faces. The rich people are much richer, and the poor are much poorer.”

The election results swept the headlines here while the world awaited the launch by North Korea of a long-range missile. The North says the rocket will put a weather satellite into orbit while the US and South Korea denounce the move as a "provocative" effort to test a new model with a range as far as the US west coast. Many observers expected the launch on Thursday morning, but strong winds evidently forced postponement.

North Korea’s state media said the missile would roar off the pad in the northwestern corner of the country near the Chinese border at the latest by Monday, the day after massive celebrations marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of the founding "Great Leader" Kim Il-sung.

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Related stories

• North Korea nuclear deal raises concerns for Seoul
• North Korea agrees to suspend nuclear activities (+video)
• North Korea bestows new title on its young leader ahead of rocket launch

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/0412/As-North-Korea-plans-missile-launch-South-Korea-s-conservatives-edge-out-liberals

Failure will hit Kim hard
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - North Korea's missile-cum-satellite broke up in the air on Friday morning, so did a beacon of hope for the building of a "strong and prosperous nation".

The news of the failed launch may have shocked Pyongyang, which had for weeks trumpeted the endeavor as a major achievement, but it has brought some comfort to Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. These were among countries that called on North Korea to call off the launch - experts say the Unha-3 carrier's rocket technology could be used to strike the US and other targets with a long-range missile.

In a very rare move, North Korea ate boiled crow. It acknowledged at noon on state television that a satellite launched a few hours earlier from the west coast had failed to enter into orbit, splintering into pieces over the Yellow Sea soon after take-off. "The earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."

The failure is a major setback for the young North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun, who aimed to boost his domestic legitimacy and rigidity by launching what the North called an Earth-observation satellite two days ahead of celebrations for the 100th anniversary on Sunday of the birth of founding father Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-eun's "yes" men and Pyongyang people who were in an enthusiastically festive mood will also be devastated.

"Inviting many foreign media, North Korea has become an object of public ridicule in the world," Masao Okonogi, emeritus professor at Keio University in Tokyo and a noted expert on the affairs of the Korean Peninsula, told Asia Times Online on Friday. "It has acted with arrogance and recklessness more than needed. To recover fallen prestige, it may adopt a more belligerent stance towards other nations."

Okonogi said that since Pyongyang believed the US, Japan and South Korea would now not take North Korea's threats seriously, given the failed rocket launch, it would take the risky step of conducting its third nuclear test.

"North Korea is only further isolating itself by engaging in provocative acts, and is wasting its money on weapons and propaganda displays while the North Korean people go hungry," the US White House said in a statement after the launch. "North Korea's long-standing development of missiles and pursuit of nuclear weapons have not brought it security - and never will."

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Friday ordered an emergency meeting to condemn the failed launch, but it is unlikely to order immediate new sanctions against the isolated state, although Japan and South Korea are taking tougher stances.

This is because it is believed China will only allow the UNSC to vote on a resolution condemning the launch, but will not back any attempts to impose fresh sanctions against Pyongyang. Experts expect Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent North Korea from being destabilized.

Since the beginning of the Cold War, North Korea had been seen as China's first line of defense and strategic buffer zone vis-a-vis the Western bloc, led by the US. Beijing is also afraid of a refugee flood once public safety gets worse in North Korea.

Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor and senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, a Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) think-tank, takes a similar view as Okonogi.

"North Korea aims to become a science-and-technology powerhouse as well as a strong and prosperous nation," Akutsu said. "So today's rocket launch failure should be very shocking to them."

Akustu said, depending on how strongly the UNSC) acted against North Korea, led by the lobbying of the US, Japan and South Korea, the risk remained that Pyongyang would continue to resort to missile-firing, nuclear tests and other provocations to demonstrate to the rest of world its military capabilities.

"Kim Jong-eun's new regime is calling for a continuation of songun [military first] politics, so it will continue to pursue its nuclear and missile development programs to boost its national prestige and strengthen the regime's foundations."

North Korea conducted similar long-range Taepodong-2 tests in 2006 and 2009, but with unsuccessful results.

A source close to Japan's defense intelligence said Kim Jong-eun pushed the rocket-firing button on Friday under pressure from the powerful military to coincide with the celebrations for the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, despite a lack of full preparations for the launch.

Akutsu at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies also pointed out that among the military power elite is Korean People's Army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho, believed to be one of Kim Jong-eun's closest confidants.

Ri is thought to have been a supervisor of Jong-eun when the young leader studied at the Kim Il Sung Military Academy. His thesis was said to be "Missile Guidance by GPS", according to the Japanese intelligence community.

Among other military officers who pressed the young master of the nation to conduct the launch include Pak To-chun, Ju Kyu-chang and Paek Se-bong. They have been called the "three-man team of missile guidance" by the South Korean intelligence community and were recently promoted to high-ranking generals, despite their previous civilian status.

Japanese experts on North Korea think Kim Jong-eun cannot easily punish them over the launch failure because of his heavy dependence on them in terms of political management and the ruling of the country. Akutsu said they would more likely receive an amnesty thanks to the celebration of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth for Sunday.

Okonogi at Keio University, meanwhile, pointed out that North Korean moderates such as its foreign affairs bureaucrats will gain more power, rather than hardliners in military circles in the wake of the debacle.

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/ND14Dg01.html