Loyalty and ideology to take centre stage at Communist Party congress

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(China Today Monday 16 October 2017)

Loyalty and ideology to take centre stage at Communist Party congress

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives to attend a tribute ceremony in front of the Monument to the

People's Heroes at Tiananmen Square, ahead of National Day marking the 68th anniversary of the

founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, China on September 30, 2017. Photo: Reuters

By Albert Wai -  albertwai@mediacorp.com.sg

Updated: 8:07 AM, October 16, 2017

SINGAPORE — The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 19th party congress on October 18 is a watershed moment for Chinese politics, with the world keenly watching for signs of a tighter grip on power by President Xi Jinping and who he unveils as the next generation of leaders after months of intense preparation.

Given the opaque nature of Chinese politics, it is far from certain who would make the cut among the list of contenders at this juncture.

What is more certain, however, is how loyalty and ideology will feature as key ingredients during the proceedings, said experts interviewed by TODAY.

Mr Xi is expected to consolidate his power by advancing the positions of those he can trust, while reinforcing his cult of personality and personal legacy.

All eyes are on the most powerful party body, known as the Politburo Standing Committee. Five out of seven seats are up for grabs, as the current leaders are slated to retire.

Only Mr Xi, who took power in 2013, and Premier Li Keqiang are eligible to serve a second five-year term. Mr Li will reportedly be retained in his current portfolio, as he has been a loyal enforcer of the President’s decisions.

Change is also afoot in the 25-member Politburo, with at least 10 cadres slated to retire.

There is also uncertainty over whether Mr Xi, who is also party general secretary, will break the rules and keep leaders who are beyond the mandatory retirement age of 68. He could also go against party norms by refusing to anoint a successor after his first term, as there is speculation that he intends to stay beyond the traditional 10-year leadership tenure.

LOYALTY ABOVE ALL

In order for Mr Xi to advance his agenda in the next five years, loyalty within the ranks is crucial, said Dr Zeng Jinghan, an expert on Chinese politics at the Royal Holloway, University of London’s Department of Politics and International Relations.

He noted that in the past few years, Mr Xi has launched sweeping reforms that affected many within the party, from his anti-corruption campaign against officials to ideological control at the societal level. “These reforms led to much dissatisfaction and criticism... Without loyal supporters, Xi is unlikely to achieve more progress in his reforms,” he said.

Dr Zhu Jiangnan, who is with the Department of Politics and Public Administration in the University of Hong Kong added: “As the party stresses democratic centralism, loyalty of party members can be an important condition to reach agreements on political policies and ensure enforcement.”

She said it is possible that Mr Xi may experiment with younger officials who have shown to follow his policies effectively, even if they are less experienced.

Indeed, loyalty appears to be the overriding consideration for promotion to top positions.

“Ideally, there should be loyalty and competence (among the incoming group). But if Xi has to make a choice, I think it would be loyalty first and competence second,” said Professor Zhao Suisheng of the University of Denver’s Centre for China-US Cooperation.

“What he (Mr Xi) has been doing so far is to emphasise loyalty.”

That extends to appointing people whom he is familiar with to key positions.

“President Xi is locating former political allies or friends whom he had contact or worked with when he worked in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces,” Dr Lim Tai Wei, an Adjunct Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) in the National University of Singapore, noted.

“Familiarity may also extend to candidates President Xi met during other formative periods of his life, such as individuals who were college dorm mates.”

Dr Lim was referring to how Mr Xi was party secretary in Fujian from 1985 to 2002 and later in Zhejiang from 2002 to 2007.

Mr Cai Qi, the current party boss of Beijing who once served with Mr Xi in Fujian, as well as Mr Chen Min’er, the new party boss of Chongqing who had worked with the President in Zhejiang are among those said to be strong contenders for the Politburo.

Another possible Politburo candidate Chen Xi - the current vice minister of the party’s organisation department, shared a dormitory with Mr Xi when they attended Tsinghua University in the late 1970s.

Appointing top leaders based on familiarity is not against communist party norms.

Dr Li Nan, a Senior Research Fellow at the EAI said one such norm is a system of recommendation by senior party leaders to Mr Xi. “Jiang (Zemin) and Hu (Jintao) used it to build a personal network of supporters as well,” he said.

GRIP ON IDEOLOGY

Besides the unveiling of top party positions, the ideological aspects of the proceedings are equally significant for Mr Xi’s political legitimacy and China’s stability.

The Chinese leader has assiduously built a personality cult around himself, most notably through his appointment as the core of the party and the supreme commander of the military.

Other examples include how Mr Xi’s ideology is featured in an animated rap video, with one line that goes: “It’s everyone’s dream to build a moderately prosperous society. Comprehensively.”

Heading into the party congress, he will be looking to “further advance his position as the undisputed paramount leader, instead of first among equals in the previous leaderships”, said Chinese politics expert Tok Sow Keat.

“This will cement his legacy within party history, and indeed that of the Chinese state,” noted Dr Tok, who is with the University of Melbourne’s Asia Institute.

Prof Zhao of Denver University also said it is important for Mr Xi to consolidate his position as the centre of power so that his policies and ideas can be implemented effectively.

Some of Mr Xi’s flagship policies include a major anti-corruption campaign that has punished more than a million party members, as well as measures to open up the Chinese economy and shake up bloated industries.

“He has to make sure the party congress will be convened the way he wants it to be, to celebrate his five years of accomplishments,” Prof Zhao said.

To project confidence, Mr Xi will need to snuff out signs of dissent. He has attempted to do so with a broad range of measures, from tightening controls over the Internet to airing numerous documentaries that laud his beliefs and achievements.

“This congress will be presented as a show of consensus, with the party and its mission for perpetual rule at the heart of all the messaging,” said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King’s College, London.

There has been speculation over whether a new ideological slogan would be announced. The party has been highlighting Mr Xi’s “Four Comprehensives”, which refer to China working “comprehensively” to build a moderately prosperous society and strengthen reforms, rule of law and party discipline, as well as the “Four Greats”, which focus on party building and national rejuvenation.

A key measure of Mr Xi’s power will be whether he manages to have his name included in the party constitution, elevating him to the level of previous leaders. Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory have earlier been inscribed in the party constitution.

The party has said it will amend its constitution to include “major theoretical viewpoints and major strategic thought”.

Some believe that Mr Xi’s political philosophies, known as “Xi Jinping Thought” are set to be enshrined in the constitution.

Dr Zeng of Royal Holloway said that if this happens, it would be a “clear attempt to put Xi’s personal stamp on the party’s history and constitution”.

“It is his personal political legacy,” he said.

“The question here is how this slogan will be named – will it include Xi’s name on it or will it follow the tradition of the Three Represents (espoused by Mr Jiang) and Scientific Outlook of Development (espoused by Mr Hu) without naming a specific leader.”

Mr Xi’s legacy is closely linked to his report card in the area of anti-corruption. The massive campaign has been his trademark domestic policy. But at the same time, his efforts have caused much disquiet among the rank and file of the party.

Dr Tok of the University of Melbourne said that while the anti-corruption campaign may have slowed down for the time being before the party congress, it is unlikely to end. “Xi will continue to use the anti-corruption campaign, whether through the hands of Wang Qishan (who is the corruption tsar and current member of the Politburo Standing Committee) or his successor, as a way to clear the path towards his vision for China,” he said.

However, Dr Zhu of the University of Hong Kong said “the intensity (of the anti-corruption campaign) may become less” as other policy priorities, such as economic reforms, rise to the top of agenda.

With Mr Xi set to emerge from the party congress stronger than before, another key question is whether this will result in a more assertive approach by China in terms of foreign policy.

Over the past few months, Beijing has engaged countries in the region to dial down tensions in the South China Sea, while urging for calm on the Korean Peninsula. Observers say this is to prevent regional uncertainties from casting a shadow over the party congress.

An indication of whether things might change may come within weeks, as Mr Xi is scheduled to host American President Donald Trump in China in November and attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Vietnam, among other high profile international events.

Prof Zhao of Denver University predicted: “He (Mr Xi) will show to the Chinese people that he is a global leader who is respected by the big powers and also by many countries in the world”, while adding that this might be the “easiest” message to send as a show of strength immediately after the party congress proceedings.