영한_IT_김형민

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이 연설은 기타 고피너스 현IMF부총재가 아담 스미스 탄생 300주년을 맞이해, 산업혁명에 비견대는 AI 생산성 증대에 대한 통찰을 담은 연설입니다.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/05/sp060523-fdmd-ai-adamsmith

Glossary

University of Glasgow : 글래스고 대학

Wealth of nations : 국부론

The division of labor : 국부론에 등장하는 개념1 (노동의) 분업

The invisible hand : 국부론에 등장하는 개념2 보이지 않는 손 / 연사가“artificial hand” 라고 응용함.

Inflection point : 특이점

Stifle : 주로 창의성, 경쟁, 혁신을 ‘질식’시킨다, 라는 표현으로 많이 쓰는 동사

<543words>

Thank you to the University of Glasgow, for inviting me to participate in this celebration of Adam Smith and his legacy.

Nowadays, it’s almost impossible to talk about economics without invoking Adam Smith. We take for granted many of his concepts, such as the division of labor and the invisible hand. Yet, at the time when he was writing, these ideas went against the grain. He wasn’t afraid to push boundaries and question established thinking.

Smith grappled with how to advance well-being and prosperity at a time of great change. The Industrial Revolution was ushering in new technologies that would revolutionize the nature of work, create winners and losers, and potentially transform society. But their impact wasn’t yet clear. The Wealth of Nations, for example, was published the same year James Watt unveiled his steam engine.

Today, we find ourselves at a similar inflection point, where a new technology, generative artificial intelligence, could change our lives in spectacular—and possibly existential—ways. It could even redefine what it means to be human.

Given the parallels between Adam Smith’s time and ours, I’d like to propose a thought experiment: If he were alive today, how would Adam Smith have responded to the emergence of this new “artificial hand”?

To explore this question, I’d like to start with his most famous work, The Wealth of Nations. A seminal idea in this work is that the wealth of a nation is determined by the living standards of its people, and that those standards can be raised by lifting productivity, that is the amount of output produced per worker. This idea is especially relevant today because global productivity growth has been slowing for more than a decade, undermining the advancement of living standards.

AI could certainly help reverse this trend. We could foresee a world in which it boosts economic growth and benefits workers. AI could raise productivity by automating certain cognitive tasks while giving rise to new higher-productivity tasks for humans to perform. With machines taking care of routine and repetitive tasks, humans could spend more time on what makes us unique: being creative innovators and problem solvers.

Early evidence suggests AI could substantially raise productivity. A recent study examined how customer-service agents worked with a conversational assistant that used generative artificial intelligence. The AI assistant monitored customer chats and gave agents suggestions for how to respond. The study found that productivity rose by 14% with the use of this technology.

It's interesting to note that the greatest productivity impact was on newer and lower-skilled workers. Why? The study suggests that AI can help spread the knowledge of more experienced, productive workers. Imagine how productive a company could be if every employee performed at the level of its best employee!

If such dynamics hold on a broad scale, the benefits could be vast. Goldman Sachs has forecast that AI could increase global output by 7%, or roughly $7 trillion, over a decade. That is more than the combined size of the economies of India and the United Kingdom. While it is far from certain that such sizeable gains will be realized, it is probably safe to say that when it comes to maximizing efficiency, Adam Smith would be wary of stifling the artificial hand of AI.

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