Avery Johnson's calling the right shots
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By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
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My, how quickly perceptions can change.
Remember oh, say, two weeks ago, when Avery Johnson was an idiot? Back then, the Mavericks had just lost their first two playoff games at home against Houston, and some suspected Dallas' season had just two games left. Johnson was roundly criticized for not using a small lineup, failing to call better plays for Dirk Nowitzki, not stopping Tracy McGrady and assorted other misdeeds.
But the rookie coach has bounced back quickly. In the Houston series, he made enough adjustments for Dallas to win four of the final five games. It was his Game 7 approach of letting McGrady and Yao Ming get their points while shutting down the other Rockets that enabled Dallas to win in a blowout, sending the Mavs to the second round.
It has been amazing to see the Little General pull out so many tricks from the bag of the Great Experimenter himself: Johnson's predecessor, Don Nelson. At times during this series, I half expected to see Nellie pacing the sidelines in his J.C. Penney sport coat.
Who else but Nellie would have Michael Finley guarding Amare Stoudemire, as the Mavs did for parts of Game 2 against the Suns? Who else would pull Darrell Armstrong out of the cryo-chamber in a seventh game and watch him go 4-for-4 from the field? And of course, who else (besides Mike D'Antoni, that is) would play much of the game with 6-foot-7 Josh Howard as his power forward?
Johnson's best and most daring coup came in Sunday's Game 4 in the Mavs' second-round series against Phoenix. With Dallas trailing 2-1 and facing a must-win, he completely altered his defensive strategy. Phoenix had been shredding his defense with a pick-and-roll between Steve Nash and Stoudemire. If the Dallas center switched to guard Nash, Stoudemire often would be open for a dunk. If the Mavs rotated a third man to Stoudemire in time, Nash would just kick the ball out to whoever had been left open by the rotation. Either way, the Suns got an easy shot, leading to 17 Nash assists in the Suns' win.
Johnson befuddled the Suns in Game 4 by recycling the "let-Yao-and-Tracy-get-their-points" strategy from the Houston series. He decided the Mavs weren't going to switch on the pick-and-roll. Whoever was guarding Nash just had to fight through the pick, and if he couldn't get through it, then the Mavs would take their chances with leaving Nash wide open. The logic was clear: Anything was better than having Stoudemire rain down dunks on them again, as he had through the first three games (Stoudemire averaged 35.7 points in those contests).
The strategy worked wonders. Nash spent the first half looking to make the same passes that had been open in the first three games, only now there were defenders waiting. By forcing the ball into traffic, Nash ended up with a season-high nine turnovers.
In addition, Stoudemire was neutralized. With Dallas refusing to switch on the screen, he no longer had a clear opening to roll to the basket after setting the screen. As a result, Stoudemire finished with a modest 15 points. The Mavs limited Phoenix's top scorer to just eight field-goal attempts for the game.
Also, the new tactic nullified the Suns' 3-point shooting because the other Mavs didn't need to rotate off the shooters to help against Stoudemire. Other than Nash, the Suns made only four shots from downtown all night. Add it all up and Dallas held the Suns to "only" 50 points in the first half (against this juggernaut, that's a great performance). That advantage allowed Dallas to take a 16-point lead at the break and cruise home to a series-tying victory.
One fortuitous break helped Johnson's strategy immensely: the injury to the other Johnson in this series, Phoenix's Joe Johnson. With Jim Jackson taking over at shooting guard for the sidelined Johnson, the Mavs could put Jason Terry on Jackson defensively without exposing themselves to repeated mismatches in the post. In turn, that enabled Avery Johnson to put his best defender, Howard, on Nash. That switch was important since Dallas committed to providing no help – the Mavs would make Nash take all the shots. Howard would have to fight through as many of the screens as he could.
Unfortunately, Phoenix figured Dallas out. In the second half, Nash realized the Mavs weren't giving any help against his drives and went absolutely bonkers on offense. Mr. Moptop scored 23 points in the third quarter alone, finishing the game with a playoff career-high 48. With Nash piling up the points, the Suns put 59 on the scoreboard in the second half. It was only Dallas' huge first-half advantage that enabled the Mavs to withstand the scoring barrage.
I found it interesting that Howard told The Dallas Morning News after the game, "If I can hold [Nash] to five assists and nine turnovers, he can have 40 points again." He's right, of course, but it's not going to happen that way because the element of surprise is gone. Nash made all those turnovers because he was forcing passes in the first half. If Dallas tries the same thing in Game 5, it will be more like two turnovers, five assists and 60 points. Good luck winning against that.
Hence, Johnson's predicament for Game 5 is to come up with something new. While I don't know what Johnson's game plan will be, I do know this: For a coach who took so much heat in the first week of the postseason, he has done a very impressive job. His best player can't find the basket, his starting center is stealing money and his top frontcourt reserve is on the sideline with a sprained ankle. Yet somehow, the Mavs knocked off the Rockets and have the Phoenix series down to a best-of-three.
So regardless of how Dallas fares during the rest of this series, or for the rest of the playoffs, let's take it easy on the new guy in charge. While players such as Nowitzki and Erick Dampier still need to prove they have the mettle to succeed in the postseason, their coach has more than proved himself worthy. After a shaky start, it's safe to say Avery Johnson is starting to get the hang of this playoff coaching thing.
John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05," is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. Click here to contact John.
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Talk NBA Playoffs w/ Eric Neel
Welcome to The Show! On Wednesday, Page 2's Eric Neel will stop by to chat about the NBA playoffs! Send your questions now and join Eric -- THE Basketball Jones -- on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET.
Just use the form below!
SportsNation Eric Neel: Hey All. Let's talk playoffs...
Frank (Dallas,TX): Is the Ginobli caple of being a hall of famer?
SportsNation Eric Neel: He's got a ways to go, and he's already 28, but I'm with the spirit of the question. The guy is a monster, and a unique one at that. Whatever happens with the Hall, can we just take to calling him, as you've done here, "The Ginobili"? That'd be real nice.
Mike (Milwaukee): Do you think Rip Hamilton will give Dwayne Wade more trouble, assuming the Pistons finish off the Pacers. Or is Wade just having one of those playoff seasons where no one can stop him? The Gold?
SportsNation Eric Neel: He's definitely having one of those playoff seasons, but the Pistons will make him work harder than anyone else, running Rip, Tayshaun, Chauncy, and Carlos at him in waves. My gut says it won't matter, though. Heat in 6 . . . assuming Shaq plays, that is.
Joel (Kingston, Jamaica): I think some people are mixing up value with talent. Wade and Ginobili are terrific talents, but in a league where great bigs are so hard to find, there's no way they're more valuable than Shaq or Duncan. Those two are guys who make championship teams, while Wade and Manu are among a plethora of outstanding perimiter players in the NBA. Your thoughts?
Leon (Vancouver): Assuming the pistons beat the pacers, i think the miami - detroit series is gonna be real interesting... last year the pistons handled kobe - shaq, why can't they do the same thing against d wade - shaq?
SportsNation Eric Neel: For starters, Wade and Shaq actually work together. Add to that the fact that Haslem and the Joneses are far more effective right now than anyone the Lakers had working the secondary roles last June, and then add to that the fact that the Pistons don't have quite the bench they did last year, and things could be quite different.
Yorkis (Philly): If you answer Leonâ??s question with stuff about the support players being better â?? stiffs like Jones, Jones, and Haslem â?? then you are an idiot.
SportsNation Eric Neel: oops
Rashad, Huntsville: If the pistons lose to the Heat, it wont be because of their bench. The pistons bench is better than you think. The problem is they dont get any minutes or shots because Larry Brown won't allow them too with the exception of Lidnsey can't score Hunter.
SportsNation Eric Neel: Good point about Brown. As good as he is, he tends to limit his options.
Jeff (Iowa): Hey, is anyone giving the Pacers a chance???
Matt (Altoona, PA): Eric, love your work. What changes do you think the Lakers will make this offseason?
SportsNation Eric Neel: They better be thinking point guard. I'm looking for a pre-draft maneuver to get in a position to draft Daron Williams.
Leno (Detroit): Eric, Just for the record, did you happen to bet against the Pistons last year did you?
SportsNation Eric Neel: I did pick against them last year. You'd think I'd learn. They're excellent, there's no doubt about that. I'm swayed right now by the DWade explosion. I admit it.
Adam seattle: Do you think tommarow is Ray Allens last game in a Sonics uniform?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Unless you count some charity events this summer, yeah...
Mark Cuban (Dallas): Mavs or Suns in the best of three?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Joe Johnson looks like Frazier after the Thrilla. Advantage Dallas.
Leno (Detroit): Thanks. I garuntee 1 thing it will be a great series this year.
Jennifer, Nevada: So I have to ask a question, last nights game Sonics v. Spurs. I will be the first to say that the Sonics were outscored. However I feel that the tempo and flow of the game were controlled ultimately by the ref's. The Spurs after all of the pushing and shoving didn't get their 5th team foul until there was under 4 minutes remaining in the game.
SportsNation Eric Neel: Call it the Fortson effect. The refs are so busy watching Danny they've got no time for anyone else.
levon(alb, nm): how dumb is Mike Redd, for not wanting to play next to lebron in cavs land, and racking up champiosship like no tomorrow?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Here's the only explanation I can offer: He likes the brats at Miller Park. If that's not it, I've got no clue.
Jeff (Iowa): Eric, you didn't answer my question about the Pacers, even though you posted it? How 'bout some love for Reggie and his buddies.
SportsNation Eric Neel: The Pacers thing is interesting, right? On the one hand, this postseason is pure torture, an endless game of "what if." On the other hand, this postseason is their finest hour because Reggie's come alive when nobody had a right to expect more from him, because they've played tough, because Jeff Fisher's been a Hoover, because at times Tinsley's looked unstoppable at the top of the circle. It's the essence of ambivalence: You feel terrible and good for them/about them at the same time.
Mark, MI: My friends and I have been at the water cooler with this for the last week. More likely to make the playoffs with EQUIVALENT role players. Wade, The Ginbobli,Kobe,T-Mac? I say Kobe, Wade, T-MAC,Ginobli.. In that order!
SportsNation Eric Neel: I'm good with that order.
Alex (Milwaukee): Who is your MVP of the playoffs so far?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Amare and Wade are at the top of the list for me. Wade gets the nod because Shaq's been out, I guess. What do others think?
3FF (Arlington, VA): Foster not fisher, though if Foster had a beard like Fishers...man I can only imagine, right?
SportsNation Eric Neel: thanks for the fix
Antoine (Chatham, Virginia): Since you agree wit that order...are you agreeing in the fact that Kobe is still the best swingman?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Yup. But the margin is closing. Wade's younger, and he's got Shaq to carry some of the load for the next couple of years. In LA, it's still all on Kobe for the foreseeable future, and that's going to take a toll on his body (as we've already seen).
Kelwin (Sunnyvale, CA): Wait a second.. Lebron is not even in the list?? There's something wrong here.
Drix: Indy: D.Wade hands down... he has carried his team for two series and will have to do the same until Shaq is healthy enough to play. He manhandled my Wiz... he is sick
Edward ( Dallas): Why don't the Mavericks get the same respect as the other teams in the playoffs? If they were this good after changing coaches with 18 games to go and letting an MVP walk for nothing imagine how good they will be next year with Avery running things for the whole year. What do you think?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Part of it's their rep as a team without D, and as a team that's fallen short in the past. But you're right, they do get slighted from time to time. What's the call on Avery Johnson, folks: In over his head or sneaky genius? I'm leaning sneaky genius.
Mike (Milwaukee): Michael Redd will stay in Milwaukee because they were the team that gave him a chance, and now he will give them a chance. Remember they did make the playoffs last year, and there is no guarantee that Lebron will stay in Cleveland. That is why Redd will stay.
Michael (dallas): Amare can only finish around the basket, THATS IT! I do not think he has any basketball skill. Do you agree?
SportsNation Eric Neel: I have to disagree. There are some nice spin moves on display, and a jump hook that's coming along. Remember, he's still a baby. Let's all make like Hubie and talk "Upside!" Amare's is way up. Who else makes the all upside list?
3FF (Arlington, VA): Avery Johnson is going to prove a lot of people wrong about his coaching. I think he's good enough to stay and do some damage with Dallas. They could/will/should be a team to reckon with in the future
Antoine (Chatham, Virginia): I hear a lot of opinions when people are asked about the best player in the Association right now. Eric, what do you consider when trying to pick one player and who is your player?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Here's the way I like to think about the question: If you're building a team and you're looking ahead for 10 years, who's the guy you want? I'll take LeBron.
Michael (dallas): If you want to talk "Upside", what about Josh Howard?
Sean (Ann Arbor): Darko has upside! Did you see that putback? He had as many points last night as Dale Davis and Tinsley combined!
Darius (Oakland): Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Livingston.....all upside list.
Sam ((Los Angeles)): There seems to be no excitement around the NBA playoffs, do you think it is because the games are on cable?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Are you watching the Dallas-Phoenix games?
Rob (Portland, OR): Dwayne Wade's great play seems to have distracted people from the real issue in Miami...SHAQ's injury. Does anyone REALLY think that the Heat can win it all without a dominant Shaq?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Rob's right. If the Daddy can't muster 30 mins a night, all bets are off.
Randy (Racine WI): If the Heat win it all does A. Mourning retire? Or does his recent inspired play bring him back for another season?
SportsNation Eric Neel: He's likely done, I'd guess. But I think they ought to keep him around, maybe even in uniform, just to flash that glare and stomp that stomp. Great stuff, the perfect blend of inspiration and hilarity.
Antoine (Chatham, Virginia): I believe Shaq needs to give more than 30 minutes to beat this Detroit team
Darius (Oakland): Eric, there seem to be 3 legit contenders. Do you think the playoffs are better this way or with a marquee team like the Lakers or Jordans Bulls headlining the action and providing the barometer?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Much, much, much better this way.
dahveed, dc: what is the L thinking, having the PHX-DAL games on so late? talk about sabotaging yourself!
SportsNation Eric Neel: If it were up to me, these games would re-run the next day at least once. They're fun to watch even if you know the outcome. Plus, we'd get the added bonus of pre-empting some mid-day Law and Orders or something...
Alex (Republica Dominicana): We should have Chuck, Ernie and The Jet on play by play on the re-runs. That would be gold.
SportsNation Eric Neel: They could do it like Myster Science Theater 3000, or Cheap Seats, kibbitzing throughout, talking about who Charles could and couldn't take back in the day. Tell me folks wouldn't watch that? Tell me the league shouldn't be marketing that in streaming video to working follks all over the country....
Bangkok, Thailand: Die hard Warriors fan. Yes, it hurts. Shooting for playoffs next year. What are their options to shore up the frontcourt with a big talent?
SportsNation Eric Neel: I think Clifford Ray is an assistant coach somewhere, mabye they could coax him out of retirement. ... Tough to say; they spent a lot of money on Adonal.
Chris (Detroit): Eric,If the winner of the West is someone other than San Antonio....Which one of these teams would be better suited to play an half court type of game against the winner of the Eastern Conference?
SportsNation Eric Neel: I don't think either Phoenix or Dallas would settle for the half-court thing. Phoenix would defintiley fight it, and Dallas, with their deep bench, would run, too. The question might be, could the eastern teams keep pace with the pace?
Kelwin (Sunnyvale, CA): Hi Eric, a question here. Who do you think is the best teammate for LBJ? Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Ray Ray wants/needs to be the man, I think. I don't see him sitting second chair to LeBron. Johnson's already played that role in PHX, and he's more versatile in some ways, than the other two (played some point this year, strong enough to go down on the block from time to time, and can hit 3s as well as anyone in the league). I'd be looking at Johnson if I were the Cavs.
Rich (Blacksburg, VA): How is Phoenix going to counter Dallas' latest defensive strategy?
SportsNation Eric Neel: Great question. The Suns, in their break, tend to rely on flow and oportunity. They move to open spots more than set spots, etc. It'll be interesting to see whether they get more deliberate tonight, maybe work in some baseline screens or more high-post pick and rolls, even at the end of a mini-break situation, to free folks up.
Chris (Detroit): Eric,I beg to differ about the East kepping pace with the West.Look at Detroit,and Miami's records against the Western Conference,and paticularly the games they both played against Phoneix,Dallas,and San Antonio?
SportsNation Eric Neel: I'm not saying the Eastern teams can't keep pace, I'm saying they may have to take an uptempo approach to counter the Suns. Detroit did a great job of running last year in the finals. Mike James was fantastic off the rebound, loose balll, and turnover situations. If they let Arroyo loose in that role, they'll make things very tough for anybody out of the West.
levon(alb, nm): if im Joe Johnson, I dont leave PHX. The main reason is thier starting 5 can sacore pionts, and its hard to key in on just one or eo players. Joe Johnson knows hte good life. However, in Cleveland teams would focus on him and Lebron more, thus he would handle the pressureand revert back to his Celtics days. Redd fits better. Redd know what islike to have a team key in on him, and he wont fold under that pressure
Louis (San Fran): Do you think the NBA will ever consider moving playoff games around so us fans on the West Coast can see East Coast games rather than barely catching the end of the game (due to time difference and traffic)
SportsNation Eric Neel: Uh, I'd say you have a better shot of the NBA providing all west coast fans with free TiVo, and I'd say there's no chance of that at all.
Karl (San Diego): Eric, can we make it illegal for the Pistons and Pacers to meet in the playoffs anymore. I can't take that many naps during the week! Can I talk to the commish?
San Antonio: If San Antonio wins a third Championship in the Duncan era over Miami and with his youth and the core team signed through 2010. Would you say Duncan is the best big man in the last 25 years over Shaq. If not how many Championships would he need to justify???
SportsNation Eric Neel: He's going to need more titles than Shaq, at a minimum. And he's going to need to hit enough free throws to distinguish himself from the big fella at the line...
Steve (Ithaca): This just in, championships are not the only, or even the best, measure of an individual player.
SportsNation Eric Neel: True. But in a game where individual prowess has the most direct impact on team performance, and in a game where folks are not wearing helmets or masks, championships are a legit part of the conversation.
Jerry: Joe Johnson would be best with the Clippers playing alongside the promising shaun Livinston. That would be an impressive and versatile backcourt for many years to come
SportsNation Eric Neel: Step away from the Clippers, Jerry. Put the Clippers down. Slowly... Easy... That's it. Now RUN!
SportsNation Eric Neel: All right, Gang. I'm out. Thanks for all the great questions. Sorry for the ones I didn't get to. Talk to you next week.
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Chat with John Hollinger
Welcome to The Show! On Wednesday, NBA Insider John Hollinger will stop by to take your questions.
The newest addition to ESPN.com's stable of Insiders, Hollinger is also the author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05." Look for his columns in the Insider section.
Send your questions now and join John in The Show at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday!
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:01 PM ET ) Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Let's get rolling.
Daniel (Puerto Rico): Hello Mr. Hollinger, I really believe that Steve Nash deserves serious consideration for the MVP award. But didn't John Stockton have about 5 or more seasons with numbers similar to what Nash posted? Add on to that the fact that Stockton didn't have the set of finishers Nash has. Why the sudden love to the pure point guard? I don't think I recall hearing Stockton's name pop up in MVP conversations in years past.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:03 PM ET ) OK,let's deal with Nash first since this is what everyone's talking about. Yes, he had a Stockton-esque season. Stockton had the misfortune of playing at the same time as Michael Jordan, which kind of crushed his MVP chances, but he also could never create the 'they were nothing without him" buzz that Nash and Kidd did in recent years by changing teams. Unfortunately, that's what tends to get voters attention.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:03 PM ET ) I could probably write about 4,000 more words on this but I'll stop and deal with some other questions.
Mike, Miami: Hey John, I was wondering if D-Wade would be as good as he is now, if Shaq had not came to the Heat, and also is Rip Hamilton or Prince giving Wade problems on the next series, or Wade will play just as good as lat series, thanks
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:05 PM ET ) Considering Wade's stats are BETTER when Shaq DOESN'T play, I'd say he'd be at least as good. I think Prince will guard Wade and he'll do a better job than Hughes did certainly, but Dwyane will get his points.
Anthony (Billings, Mt): Is Utah as dangerous next year as they seemed this year before the entire team broke their legs?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:07 PM ET ) Wow, I think this is the first Utah question I've had since I started doing chats. I still like the nucleus over there. I think they got caught off guard by the rules changes, because Sloan's system was three yards and a cloud of dust, and you can't do that anymore. I wouldn't be shocked if they play Harpring at SF, Kirilenko at PF, Boozer at C and bring Okur off the bench. Either way, they need to get a real backcourt in the offseason and then they'll be back in the playoffs.
Phil (Gardiner, Me): What is the Dallas Mavericks key to success in beating the Suns in Game 5 tonight?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:09 PM ET ) It's going to be hard, because as I discussed in my column today, the Suns figured out what Dallas was doing in Game 4 and started raining points in the second half. I think Avery has to keep throwing new wrinkles at the Suns -- zones, traps, whatever -- to keep them off balance. Shame Eddie Jordan isn't involved -- he's great at that.
Kory (Las Vegas, NV): John, what steps are the blazers looking to make this offseason to return their franchise to the playoffs, who do they like in the draft and what are they going to do with there head coaching position and front office?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:11 PM ET ) First, they have to figure out if they want to keep Nash as the GM. The Blazers are wooing Saunders to coach them but if they do that before they have a GM in place it's a mistake. It's funny because Paul Allen made the same error when he hired Carlesimo before Whitsitt. You'd think he'd have that program debugged by now.
Farrah (Arabi, La): Why would 1. Ray Allen want to play elsewhere? 2. Seattle not want him? He has proven he is worth the money, Mate Mac has proven he can make role players overacheive... Ray+Rashard+Luke+ Nick+role players=long term success... no?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:12 PM ET ) The issue isn't whether they want him, it's how much. Some fool is going to throw a Max contract at Allen and Seattle will be reluctant to match it given his age and history of sore knees. That's why they couldn't agree on an extension during the season.
Collin (Denver): Since the breakup of the Big 3 in Milwaukee and the ever lingering "This Team is For Sale" sign in their front lawn, what do the Bucks need (position-wise) to contend or will they be doomed for mediocrity until ownership has stabilized?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:14 PM ET ) I actually like some of the things Milwaukee has done. They really need a muscular power forward, becuase Gadzuric is so light. He and Pachulia make an effective platoon, but pairing them with another waif like Smith is a disaster.
Ronni (Wixom, MI): Can the Pacers possibly bounce back from the "Tuesday Night Slaughter" we call it here in Detroit? If so, what can they do?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:17 PM ET ) I seriously doubt it. While their mental toughness is admirable, the cruel truth is that these guys couldn't score at a sleepover at the Hefners. And as I mentioned in the Daily Dime, I'm baffled as to why they keep calling post-ups for O'Neal when he clearly can't shoot well with the shoulder injury.
David (Michigan): John, if the Pistons continue to play the way they did in games 4+5, do you really see Miami winning?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:20 PM ET ) The thing about both Miami and Detroit in the first two rounds is that they are about to face a quantum leap in competition. They're *supposed* to be killing these teams. As for the matchup, a lot will depend on Shaq's legs.
Gustavo (Irvine): Do you see the Suns taking out the Spurs next round? San Anton is looking very vulnerable to a solid, yet undermanned Seattle team
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:22 PM ET ) I don't see it that way. San Antonio has outscored Seattle by 39 over the five games -- that's a substantial margin. Game 4 was the only game they played poorly.
dahveed, DC: does your significant other ever get sick of you watching b-ball 24-7?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:25 PM ET ) Now THAT is a great question. The wife is very understanding that this is my job, but Tivo has also done wonders in this regard.
Corey (NYC): Do you think that the Hawks, Clips (b/c no matter what happens Sterling is the owner), Warriors, etc. of the NBA have a shot of ever getting good enough to win anything?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:27 PM ET ) It can happen quicker than you think. Look at Phoenix, Washington and Chicago last year. I especially think Golden State is poised for a U-turn, although we've been fooled before.
Travis (Canada): Better first date material, a ball game or dinner and a movie?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:30 PM ET ) What am I, Dr. Phil? I'd have to go with the dinner/movie combo unless you're really, really, really sure she likes hoops.
Jake (Detroit): Who should the Pistons go after if Larry Brown leaves after the season? McMillan, Saunders, Skiles, Cheeks?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:32 PM ET ) It's amazing we haven't heard more speculation on this front, since I suspect Brown will be departing. I think Cheeks would be a bad fit -- he couldn't control Sheed in Portland. The other guys would all be near the top of my list if I were in Dumars' chair.
Jeff (Iowa): John, do the 76ers resign Kyle Korver, or does he end up somewhere else? Thank you.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:33 PM ET ) They should be able to because the price will be reasonable, unless somebody makes a crazy offer. But keeping Dalembert will be much more costly.
Lee (Seattle): John, what do you think the Sonics chance of winning game 6 going to be,knowing the home team has won every game and Rashard Lewis possibly coming back?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:35 PM ET ) They obviously have a chance, but they have to play better D and Nate has to go small quicker. I was stunned he let them get down by 13 in the second half before he went back to smallball.
Jerry (Laredo,TX): John, which guard would be best for the Bulls next year since they need a big two guard: Raja Bell, Antonio Daniels or Doug Christie?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:36 PM ET ) We can eliminate Daniels because he's only 6-4 and is probably out of their price range anyway. We can eliminate Christie because of age. Bell would be a good fit and should have a friendly price tag. Plus his pugnacious demeanor fits in best with that team.
Marc (DC): Should I be worried about my Wizards next year? It's not often that a 45 win team gives up more points than it scores. I feel that their method of playing could easily lead to a 35 win season if not everything is working perfectly.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4 PM ET ) I wouldn't be as worried. The Wizards also lost 314 man-games to injury, which narrowly missed leading the league. So they were lucky in terms of wins vs. Expected Wins, but were unlucky in terms of health. Overall, I'd say they're a 45-win quality team. But they do have to keep Hughes.
Rodrigo (Miami, FL): John , Do you See Manu as a top 10 player in the league right now?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:41 PM ET ) No, I think some perspective is in order. Obviously he's had a great three weeks in the playoffs, but that shouldn't override what he did for six months of the regular season. He's a lower tier All-Star -- capable of stretches like this, but incapable of sustaining it over a full season.
Bill (Orlando): Bill Walton was "badgering" Grant Hill in the ABC Studios over the weekend to get himself moved to a contender where he can be a contributing role player (like Walton on the Celtics) and save wear-and-tear on his ankle. If you were the Magic, would you move him now after all these years?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:43 PM ET ) Well, they've been trying to move him for eons now, but nobody wants to take on that contract. Now that he's proven himself healthy perhaps it's more reasonable, but if I'm Orlando I'd need to get serious cap relief out of a trade like that.
Veronica (Chicago): I know he lacks the some of the size of LeBron, but is it reasonable to suggest that Dwyane might be the best player to come out of that draft?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:45 PM ET ) It's still highly unlikely. Wade is three years older than LeBron, and despite that difference LeBron was a better player in each of his first two seasons.
Yorkis (Philly): John, as a Sixers fan who watched over 60 games this year, I don't understand why Iverson got so many MVP votes. Do the voters actually watch the games? He was far and away the league leader in turnovers, shot 40 percent, and continued to take his teammates out of the game. Would any other team even want AI right now?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:50 PM ET ) Amen. Here's the other side of the Nash debate that people missed: It wasn't white vs. black as much as it was small vs. big. Iverson got more MVP votes than Garnett or Stoudemire despite being miles worse as a player and winning fewer games. LIke Nash (and nearly Jason Kidd) he also won an outrageous MVP award mainly because people thought it was so cool that a little guy could do all this stuff.
The funniest thing is that people constantly say the Sixers would be the worst team in the league without Iverson, but their record when he misses games doesn't support that.
Aaron (phx): I think you should come up with a mathematical calculation for the most powerful dunker in the NBA. I put Amare on top of that list. How bout you?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:51 PM ET ) Darvin Ham. Watch Detroit in garbage time.
Tony (Chicago): Do you see Kirk Hinrich in the mold of Stockton?
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:53 PM ET ) Well, they're both white. Struggling to come up with other similarities... Hinrich is much more a scorer than a passer and plays the 2 as much as the 1. Also, Stockton was about 800 times better. Hinrich will have a good career but I'm not sure he'll ever be an All-Star caliber player.
Will (Washington, DC): John, along those lines, what happened to Kobe's MVP votes? He had a similar season to Lebron stat-wise and also in the sense that neither team made the playoffs.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:54 PM ET ) He'd get Miami's vote, that's for sure. I think Kobe was so disruptive that there was no way anybody would vote for him, especially the way that team quit in the second half.
SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:55 PM ET ) Folks, that's all the time I have. Thanks for all the great questions and we'll do this again soon.
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May Archive
Webster looking at lottery
Prep star Martell Webster announced Wednesday that he has decided to sign with agent Arn Tellem, ending his college eligibility and ensuring that he'll stay in this year's draft.
Why did he decide to make the move before working out for a team? A source close to Webster told Insider that the feedback Webster was getting from NBA teams was extremely positive. That was confirmed by several NBA executives who told Insider that he was currently ranked in the lottery on their draft boards.
Webster's getting strong interest in the 7-to-16 range and the chances he's gone before the lottery is over are high. Once Webster received that information, the decision to go ahead and stay in the draft was easy.
In our current mock draft, we have Webster going No. 13 to the Charlotte Bobcats.
Webster is only the third high school player – Monta Ellis and Andray Blatche are the other two – to definitively declare for this year's draft.
Others like Gerald Green, Andrew Bynum and Louis Williams have declared, but haven't hired representation in order to maintain their college eligibility.
posted: May 18, 2005 8:20:59 AM PDT | Feedback
No Longer No. 1
A year ago, many NBA scouts, both domestic and international, predicted that this year's No. 1 pick would be a 17-year-old Serbian kid named Nemanja Aleksandrov.
Since then, it's been nothing but bad news for Nemanja.
Things started getting ugly last June when he showed up at the Reebok Eurocamp and struggled in front of a huge contingent of scouts. Scouts told Insider after the camp that they were dismayed by his lack of passion and were disappointed that his basketball skills hadn't developed more during the year.
He followed that up with a rough season with his Serbian team, Reflex. He played 23 games and cracked double digits in just four. Ironically, his best game of the year, a 22-point, eight-rebound performance in front of a huge group of scouts in Croatia, had an ugly postscript.
The next game, Aleksandrov injured his knee. Last Thursday, Aleksandrov had his knee scoped, and the doctor found that he had a partial tear of his ACL. Surgery was performed and, according to his doctor, he's expected to have a full recovery.
"After a period of rehabilitation, we fully expect Nemanja to return to his pre-injury level of performance," said Dr. Stephen Haas, who is the team physician for the Washington Wizards.
However, that rehabilitation period will extend into September or October, according to his agent, David Bauman. That means no workouts for Aleksandrov and no summer league.
How will it affect his draft stock? Even before the injury, some scouts had downgraded Aleksandrov from the high lottery to the late lottery. Now?
While Bauman claims that Nemanja is still receiving strong interest from teams in the 7-to-14 range, a number of scouts whom Insider talked to are all saying the same thing: "Pull out of the draft."
"He may be one of the two or three most fundamentally sound players in the draft," one NBA scout told Insider. "But that's not enough, especially for young Europeans. He needs playing experience. He needs to get stronger. He needs to play with some heart. And I think he needs to rehab that knee and prove to people that he's 100 percent healthy. I just don't think a team will use a lottery pick on a kid, no matter how talented he is, without answering those questions first."
Given how crowded the draft is, that could be music to the ears of a plethora of underclassmen who are praying the draft starts thinning out.
posted: May 16, 2005 2:07:16 PM PDT | Feedback
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Updated: May 18, 2005, 2:13 PM ET
Contract length a deal breaker?
Insider
Ford
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Archive
Trying to pin down the exact positions of either side in the midst of collective bargaining isn't easy or precise.
Insider has talked to numerous sources on both sides of the negotiation to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where things stand.
While the negotiations and compromises talked about are really a moving target, here's where we believe they are now:
Age limit
Currently, players are eligible to declare for the NBA draft after their high school senior class graduation if they are from the United States. If they are international players, they must be 18 years old by the night of the draft.
For several years, commissioner David Stern has been vocal in support of an age minimum of 20 for players to be eligible for the draft. Union director Billy Hunter has been just as vocal opposing the limit.
In February, it appeared that the players had warmed to the age-limit idea to the point that several sources believed an age limit would become part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Since then, however, several prominent players have come out and publicly opposed it. Player agents also have been adamant that the union not accept Stern's proposal.
Said one source close to the negotiations, "I think David is the only one left on either side who really wants this to happen."
But that doesn't mean the proposal is dead. The players might be willing to agree to a compromise that sets the age limit at 19, two sources close to the union told Insider.
According to sources, under the current league proposal, high school players would have to wait two years after their high school class graduated before becoming eligible for the NBA draft. International players could not declare for the draft until the age of 20.
The rule likely would go into effect for the 2006 NBA draft.
If an age limit is implemented, it would dilute the draft dramatically for the next several years. If the rule had gone into effect last year, for example, 11 of the first 19 players selected would have been ineligible. Underage players such as LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard would've been ineligible for the draft, had the rule been in effect earlier.
It would take several years for the talent pool to restock. By 2008, however, the draft would be stronger, giving teams an extra couple of years of scouting before having to make crucial – and expensive – decisions on players.
The league's main interest in establishing an age limit, however, is economic. With the rare exception of a player such as LeBron, it is difficult to market players who are coming straight from high school. Two years of college publicity gives fans a chance to get to know players before they join the NBA.
"Everything is an economic issue," Stern said in February when asked about an age limit. "I mean that sincerely. Because it affects our business, in terms of our responsibility, the way we are viewed, the players' maturity and how they deal with the community.
On a broader sense, everything we are talking about, even though it may turn out to be about a minor league or D League or age limit, it all relates to the operation of this league, and at the bottom, it sort of all could be referred to as an economic question."
If the league does institute such a rule, it likely will be challenged in court. However, the league is confident the rule will hold up as long as it was collectively bargained. The NFL successfully defended a recent suit by running back Maurice Clarett. In May, a three-judge appeals panel said federal labor policy allows NFL teams to set rules governing when players can enter the league, stopping Clarett from entering last year's NFL draft.
Contract length
This issue could be the deal breaker.
Currently, players can sign a fully guaranteed contract for a maximum of seven years if they re-sign with their current team. Players signing with a new team in free agency can sign six-year deals.
This is a sticking point for owners, who often get stuck with the bill for players who become injured or don't pan out. Teams have few options if they want to part with a player with a bad contract. They can hope he retires, try to trade him (usually taking back another bad contract in return) or try to buy out the contract.
This fall, several players, including Howard Eisley and Eddie Robinson, were bought out for significant sums. The problem for owners is they have to pay a player who winds up playing for another team. They also cannot get the player off the books until the contract originally would have expired. Once a team buys out a player, the buyout amount remains on the books until the original deal expires.
This has grown into a major problem. This season, the Bulls and Nets will be paying more than $15 million in salaries to players who aren't on their current rosters. Three other teams – the Bucks, Celtics and Grizzlies – owe more than $10 million in salaries to players not with the teams. A number of other clubs, including the 76ers, Wizards, Rockets, Mavericks and Suns, also owe significant amounts to players who are playing elsewhere.
The owners' original proposal wanted contracts shortened to three or four years. According to several sources, the owners in the past few weeks have softened their stance a little and are now willing to agree to maximum contract lengths of four and five years.
So far, the union has agreed to compromise a little, shortening the maximum number of contract years to five or six. However, the players don't seem to be willing to move any further without major economic concessions from the owners.
"If they want to get rid of that extra year," one source close to the union told Insider, "it's going to cost them. That's a major issue for the players. We've already given up one year. I think it's enough. If they want to get rid of the escrow tax or something, then we can talk about reducing those lengths further."
Raises
For months, players and management remained far apart on this issue.
Under the current CBA, players are allowed maximum raises of 12.5 percent per year if they re-sign with their current teams and 10 percent if they sign with new teams in free agency.
The effect of those raises can be devastating to a franchise over time. For example, the Los Angeles Lakers, who last summer signed Kobe Bryant to a seven-year contract with 12.5 percent raises, are on the hook for $14.175 million this year. In 2010-11, they owe him $24.8 million.
Owners contend the raises are out of whack with the current financial realities. Last year, the salary cap stayed flat. In years past, it has increased by small, incremental amounts. If salaries are rising 10 percent per year and the cap is rising 3 percent, teams that are avoiding the luxury tax now won't be so lucky in three or four years.
Some clubs have tried to counter this trend by offering players flat contracts. However, very few agents or players are agreeing to them.
To curb the growth of salaries, owners have proposed rolling back the maximum raises to 5 percent for players who re-sign with their current teams and 4 percent for players who sign with a new teams in free agency.
This is a major sticking point for veteran players, who count on those nest-egg balloon payments at the end of their careers. So far, the players are holding firm to the current numbers of 12.5 and 10 percent.
According to sources, the owners have softened their stance on this issue during the past few weeks to the point that it's unlikely the raise structure will be changed significantly.
The mid-level exception
Some GMs feel the mid-level exception, more than any other "soft-cap" device in the CBA, is responsible for the out-of-control salaries in the league.
The mid-level exception is available every year to teams that are above the league's salary cap. It's based on the average salary of players in the league – currently $4.9 million. Teams can use the exception to sign players for a maximum of six years with 10 percent raises.
Derek Fisher, for example, signed a six-year deal with the Warriors last summer that totaled $37 million. Although his starting salary this year is $4.9 million, it escalates to $7.4 million in 2009-10.
Owners argue that the exception has blown a huge hole in the cap. Because teams can use the exception every year, the numbers really start to add up. Owners believe lowering the mid-level exception and implementing shorter contracts will bring things under control.
Everyone still wants the loophole – they just don't want to be able to drive a semi through it.
Currently, the owners are looking to split the mid-level exception in two pieces. Teams could sign two players with the exception: one for 75 percent of the exception, the other for 25 percent. Under current exception figures, teams would have a $3.7 million slot and a $1.2 million slot.
Right now, most teams are forced to offer the full $4.9 million to top players in free agency. That number would be lowered to $3.7 million. Most teams would choose not to use the $1.2 million exception, in effect lowering payroll.
Combine that with the shortened contract length the sides are working toward, and the mid-level exception won't be nearly as problematic.
A typical mid-level exception contract would be four years, $20 million, compared with six years, $40 million. It's a big difference.
The salary cap
The current CBA puts a salary cap in place based on basketball-related income. The cap is set at 48 percent of BRI. Last year, that came to $43.87 million.
According to sources, the owners have agreed to increase that percentage, in effect raising the salary cap. Sources claim the cap could rise to $50 million next year under current proposals. This is a big concession to the players. With a larger cap, more teams will be able to spend on contracts each summer.
The luxury tax
The infamous luxury tax is something for which neither side cares. However, it's Stern's biggest stick in beating the owners into submission for out-of-control spending.
Last season, teams whose payroll exceeded $54.6 million paid a dollar-for-dollar tax on the amount they were over the threshold. For example, the Knicks' payroll last season was $94.4 million. That means they paid the league $39.8 million in tax penalties. The total taxes paid by teams last season amounted to more than $157 million.
The luxury tax kicks in when total player salaries exceed 61.1 percent of total basketball revenues. That threshold jumped to 63.3 percent this season – giving the owners their first shot in a long time at a season without a luxury tax.
The tax probably is not going away, regardless of what both sides might want. The latest proposal from the league, according to sources, pushes for a "super tax." Owners who exceed the salary cap by more than a certain percentage would be penalized $2 for every dollar they are over the tax threshold.
That's actually a bigger penalty than is now in place and something to which the players have been staunchly opposed. The union believes this would amount to a "hard cap" because the penalty is so severe that few teams would dare exceed it.
The league is looking for the stiffer penalty for two reasons. First, it believes the current penalties have not been enough to deter many owners from exceeding the threshold and paying the luxury tax. Twelve teams paid it last season. Second, the extra revenue derived from the tax would make up for the costs incurred by raising the cap and reducing the amount players pay into escrow accounts (see below).
Currently, it appears that the owners have been willing to compromise on the "super tax" to the point that it would affect only the most egregious spenders, such as the Knicks. They would move the threshold back so far that few teams would ever cross it. Under the current proposal being debated, the "super tax" wouldn't touch 90 percent of the teams in the league, making it more palatable to the players.
Player escrow account
Currently, players must pay 10 percent of their salaries into an escrow account each season. If, at season's end, the total amount of player salaries exceeds 57 percent of the league's total basketball-related income, that money goes to the owners. If it doesn't exceed 57 percent, the players get their money back.
For the past two seasons, salaries have been hovering at more than 60 percent of BRI, and the owners who have kept their payrolls below the league's luxury-tax threshold (and a few that fall within a certain "cliff threshold") have gotten millions back from the players.
As you can imagine, the players want this to end. They already pay an enormous amount in taxes. Factor in the 10 percent that's taken off the top, and a player's take-home pay is far less than what it appears on paper.
Owners are reluctant to make the change. The windfall teams got last year from the escrow tax and fees paid by owners who were over the luxury-tax threshold put roughly $8 million back in the pockets of those owners who were under the tax or in the cliff threshold.
For several teams, that rebate meant the difference between turning a profit and posting a loss for the season.
Right now, sources claim the owners might be willing to compromise by phasing down the amount players pay into the escrow account from 10 percent to 5 or 6 percent. They are unwilling to eliminate it completely, however.
This is a major sticking point for both sides. While owners are pushing for a number of items that will get their finances under control over the long term – remember these proposals won't be retroactive; they would only apply to contracts going forward – they also are unwilling to take huge financial hits now to get it done.
That's why the phaseout is important to the owners. It means they give up less money now and more once the system begins improving.
There's also another significant development in this area. Under current rules, the NBA has sole discretion over the use of the escrow money. Currently, it redistributes the cash (and luxury tax revenues) to teams that are under the luxury tax threshold. In essence, Donald Sterling gets a bonus for being cheap.
The union hates this rule and tried (unsuccessfully) to litigate it in court. The players feel as though withholding the escrow money is yet another tax on teams over the threshold. Not only are they paying money in but they're losing out on money in the form of a rebate. The league has been willing to negotiate this issue.
Contracts
The NBA minimum wage, currently starting at $385,277 and increasing each year a player is in the league, will increase significantly, sources say. This is an obvious concession by the league and should placate a large constituency of players who consistently sign deals for minimum wage.
Rookie salary scale
Currently, first-round picks are tied into a league salary scale. When a first-round pick signs a contract, the first three years are guaranteed, with a team option for the fourth year. Players are paid a set amount based on where they were selected in the draft.
The current proposal, according to sources, modifies that deal in favor of the owners. Under the new rules, first-round picks would get the first two years of their contract guaranteed. The third and fourth years of the contract would be team options.
This is another proposal to which the union is adamantly opposed.
Roster space
Currently, teams can have a maximum of 15 players on their rosters, with a minimum of 11. Under current proposals, the minimum would be raised to 14. This is another concession by the league.
The owners also have agreed to do away with the injured list, changing to inactive and active lists. That means teams no longer will have to fake player injuries in order to manage their roster.
Trade rules
For years, both GMs and players have been complaining about restrictive trade rules that mandate all trades be within 115 percent and $100,000 of each other. That restricts player movement to the point that many deals become impossible.
Expect the league to loosen those trade rules significantly under the new CBA. That includes widening the gap between salaries traded and received to 125 percent.
NBA minor league
There has been a movement among GMs for some time to see the league turn the National Basketball Development League into something that looks more like a real minor league.
Stern told Insider in April 2004 that such a league already was in the works, with the possibility of the NBDL expanding to 15 teams and each team being affiliated with two NBA teams. In February, Stern reiterated his commitment to creating a true NBA minor league.
"One of the things we'd like to do is have young players subject to having their contracts assigned, but we understand that there can be differences of opinion on that issue," Stern said.
Creating a minor league has been an issue in the bargaining process. The players and league must collectively agree to a system. Hunter said he's still not convinced the NBA needs a minor league.
However, sources say it's likely the idea will move forward. Here are a few details currently on the table:
# Each NBA team would send young players to a designated NBDL team, along with an assistant coach to monitor the players' development.
# Stern plans to expand the league beyond the Southeast to as many as four regional pods, starting with the Southwest. If the league expands to 15 teams, two NBA teams would share each NBDL team.
# First-round picks would continue to be paid at the rookie wage scale. This was a key concession to players who didn't want owners to use the league as a way of cutting player salaries.
# Teams would retain the rights to all of their players and could recall them at any time.
# Players with three or fewer years of experience in the NBA could be sent down to the NBDL. Veterans could not be assigned to an NBDL team.
The bottom line
The NBA is in better financial shape than it was before the current 1999 CBA kicked in. The luxury tax and escrow accounts have curbed spending, though not to the degree the owners would like.
With the NHL embroiled in a nasty lockout, the last thing either NBA side wants is a work stoppage.
"Our players are making a substantial sum of money," Hunter said in February. "The league appears to be thriving and we would be foolish to not make every effort to make a deal and to be separated by something that shouldn't be something that prohibits that from occurring.
"We think there's a possible window of opportunity for which we can generate a lot of good will."
With both sides bickering over the details and a lockout looming, are the league and the players really willing to risk damaging that good will?