(Mar. 11, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

[kyonmanchung]

(Mar. 11, 2018) Weekly Topics of Global Economy

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미국의 수입철강 및 알루미늄에 대한 고율 관세 부과에 대해 각국이 줄줄이 예외 적용해 줄 것을 요청하고 나섰습니다. 미국의 2웕 고용지표는 Goldilocks type of report라 할 정도로 좋습니다. Elon Musk가 2013년 청사진만 내놨던 Hyperloop(high-speed transportation system)사업을 작년에 본인이 직접 추진하기로 마음 먹고 ‘Boring Co’를 설립하더니. 지난 금요일 드디어 개략적 소개 동영상을 내 놨습니다.

1. US steel tariffs: Germany's Merkel calls for EU exemption - BBC News

- 독일 Merkel총리가 미국의 철강(25%) 및 알루미늄(10%)에 대한 수입관세를 EU에 대해서는 제외해 달라고 요구하였습니다.

캐나다와 멕시코는 ally라는 명목으로 관세 예외 적용 중이고, 호주는 예외를 내락 받은 상태. 현재 각국은 예외조치를 요구하거나, 다음과 같은 대응 준비를 하고 있음

중국: 철강협회가 보복 조치로서 미국산 석탄, 농산물, 전기제품에 대해 보복관세 부과를 요구(steel and metals associations demanded retaliation)

일본: 수입관세가 쌍방협력에 큰 충격을 줄 것(big impact" on bilateral ties)

한국: WTO에 제소하겠다고 위협(threatened to take the issue to the World Trade Organization)

Canada: 관세 예외 적용을 환영(welcomed its exemption)

Mexico: 관세 예외 적용이 북미 자유무역협정(NAFTA) 협상과는 무관(tariffs could not be linked to talks on Nafta).

EU: 관세부과를 비난하면서, 협상 추진.’

UK: EU와 협력하여 예외적용 범위를 고려.

Dutch(Prime Minister Mark Rutte): 관세부과 결정에 매우 실망, 보복.

Australia (Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull): 미국이 불평할 입장 아님. 예외 적용을 추진

<생각> 이 기사 표현을 보면 마치 한국이 중국 편에 서서 미국에 대항하는 듯한 늬앙스임. 일본 등처럼 외교적으로 대응했으면 함. SAAD사태이후 외신들이 한국을 미국의 Ally에서 배제하는 듯한 느낌이 들지 않나요? 배신감을 줘서는 안 되죠.

역사적으로 강대국의 ally가 되는 것은 다행인데!

Trump의 억지 관세 조치에 세계가 반발하고 있고, 미국의 주류인 공화당(전통적 자유무역주의) 내에서도 반대가 많음(하원의장 등). 따라서 관세문제는 점진적으로 해결될 터인데, 여타국보다 먼저 나서 반발하면 손해!

*한국은 미국의 철강 수입국 중 3위(캐나다, EU, 한국, 멕시코, 브라질, 일본 순)

1-2. Trump Signals Metals-Tariff Exemption for ‘Our Ally’ Australia - Bloomberg

2. Whoa! 313,000 jobs added last month. Here's where they came from

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/09/investing/jobs-report-sector-gains/index.html 2018.3.9

- 우와! 2월중 미국 고용보고서에 따르면, 신규 고용이 무려 313천명이나 늘었습니다.

이중 92천명이 건설 및 제조업 부문이고, 50천명은 소매업 부문, 전문 사무직 부문도 50천명, 그리고 금융부문 28천명임. 여기서 건설, 제조업 등 Blue color 부문이

많이 늘어난 것이 더 좋은 징후. 사실상 완전고용이라 실업률(전월 4.1%)은 거론하지도 않군요.

급여 상승률은 약간 더딘 연 2.6% 수준이지만 꾸준히 오르는 추세. 전문가는 2월 고용보고서를 "Goldilocks" type of report (Not too hot. Not too cold. Just right)라고 호평하는군요. 부러워요. 다우지수는 400P이상 급등, 대신 3월21일 FOMC에서 금리인상 거의 틀림 없겠죠.

<생각> 극심한 청년 취업난과 관련, 정부가 고용 정책을 입안하는 것도 필요하지만, 무엇보다 고용주체인 기업이 청년을 고용할 수 있도록 도와 줘야 함(잡아넣기만 해서야)  

3. Elon Musk Says Hyperloop Will Give Pedestrians Priority Over Cars - Bloomberg

- Elon Musk가 Hyperloop시스템(high-speed underground public transportation system) 을 개발하면서, 차량보다는 보행자 우선이 되도록 하겠다고 밝혔습니다. 소수의 대형 역사보다는 시내 곳곳에 수천 개의 작은 역(승차공간)을 설치하겠다는 것.

Hyperloop시스템은 2013년 Elon Musk가 LA-SF간을 40분에 주파하는 고속철을 건설 Plan을 발표하면서, 동 사업은 누구든 추진할 수 있도록 open하였음. 그 후 미국, 유럽 등에서 Hyperloop 건설을 추진되었으나, 초기 활발하고 최근 답보 상태.

Elon Musk는 자신이 직접 Hyperloop 시스템 사업을 추진하기로 마음을 굳히고, 작년 굴착 start-up인 ‘Boring Co’를 설립. 지난 금요일 보다 구체적인 Hyperloop동영상을 Tweet에 올렸음(기사 본문의 Hyperloop 동영상 한번 보세요)

Boring Co.자료를 보면, Subway car를 닮은 Carriage(회사에서는 Sled라고 호칭)가 보도 옆 주차장에서 승객 8-16명을 태운 뒤 지하 터널로 하강, 지하에서 미끄러지듯 달리게 됨. 현재 LA서부 지역에 터널 굴착을 위해 시 당국의 허가를 신청하였으며, 볼티모어와 워싱턴DC간에서 허가를 이미 받았으나 굴착은 시작 않음. DC와 NY간 Hyperloop도 건설할 계획임.

정견만 드림

1. US steel tariffs: Germany's Merkel calls for EU exemption - BBC News

9 March 2018

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for the European Union to be exempted from new US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

"The best option would be [for the EU] to be excluded," she told business leaders gathered in Munich.

Ms Merkel warned that no one could win a "race to the bottom" and said the tariffs risked "hurting everyone".

President Donald Trump says the US has suffered from "unfair trade" and that the tariffs will boost industry.

The import duties - 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium - will go into effect in 15 days, although Canada and Mexico will be exempt while negotiations continue over the North America Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

Mr Trump signed the declaration in a White House ceremony attended by American workers from both industries.

What has the international reaction been?

• China's steel and metals associations demanded retaliation, urging the government to target US imports including coal, agricultural products and electronics.

• Japan said the import duties would have a "big impact" on bilateral ties, while South Korea threatened to take the issue to the World Trade Organization.

• Canada, the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the US, welcomed its exemption but said it would continue to press Washington to drop the tariffs.

• Mexico's Economy Minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, insisted the tariffs could not be linked to talks on Nafta.

• The EU is seeking talks on the issue and has denounced the tariffs. European Commissioner Jyrki Katainen called for an exemption, and insisted that EU companies were "not a source of unfair trade".

• The UK government said it would work with EU partners to consider "the scope for exemptions" while "robustly" supporting UK industries.

• Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Mr Trump's tariff decision was "very disappointing". He warned that the Netherlands was prepared to take "counter-measures".

• Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said the US could have "no complaints" about their bilateral trading relationship and his government would be "relentless" in pursuing an exemption from the tariffs.

What about inside the US?

There was strong opposition from within Mr Trump's own Republican Party, which is traditionally in favour of free trade.

US House Speaker Paul Ryan denounced the new measures and said he feared "unintended consequences".

Republican Senator Orrin Hatch, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, said he believed the president had been "misled" by those advising him at the White House.

Another Republican Senator, Jeff Flake, said he would draft and introduce a bill to nullify the tariffs, adding: "I urge my colleagues to pass it before this exercise in protectionism inflicts any more damage on the economy."

However, those who backed Mr Trump's move included Democratic Senator Joe Manchin who said it was "past time to defend our interests, our security and our workers in the global economy".

Why did Donald Trump do this?

In his election campaign, Mr Trump pledged to protect American workers and to rebuild the steel and aluminium industries.

The two metals are "the backbone of our nation... the bedrock of our defence-industrial base", the president said at Thursday's signing ceremony.

• Steel tariffs: What impact will they really have?

"Our greatest presidents from [George] Washington, to [Andrew] Jackson, to [Abraham] Lincoln, to [William] McKinley and others - they protected our country from outside influence, from other countries coming in and stealing our wealth and stealing our jobs and stealing our companies," he said.

"And we're going to be very fair, we're going to be very flexible, but we're going to protect the American worker, as I said I would do in my campaign."

Correspondents say Mr Trump is aiming to appeal to blue-collar voters in states such as Pennsylvania who turned away from the Democrats to support him in 2016.

What could happen next?

Mr Trump has said that the US would "win big" in any trade war.

Some countries are likely to take the US to court, arguing that the decision violates World Trade Organization rules.

The White House, however, says that the national security rationale for the move is "unassailable" and national security considerations are allowed under WTO rules.

The director of UK Steel said the tariffs would have a profound and detrimental impact on the UK steel sector.

"Imposing such measures on US allies in the name of national security is difficult to comprehend," Gareth Stace added.

1-2. Trump Signals Metals-Tariff Exemption for ‘Our Ally’ Australia - Bloomberg

By Toluse Olorunnipa

‎2018‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎10‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎8‎:‎14 Updated on ‎2018‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎10‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎10‎:‎06

President Donald Trump said Friday that he was working on a security agreement with Australia that would exempt the country from planned tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

“Spoke to PM @TurnbullMalcolm of Australia. He is committed to having a very fair and reciprocal military and trade relationship,” Trump said on Twitter, referring to Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. “Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia.”

Trump announced on Thursday that he’s slapping a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum. He excluded Mexico and Canada, as long as they negotiate a new North American Free Trade Agreement, and threw the door open to further exclusions for countries and niche products.

광고

inRead invented by Teads

광고

inRead invented by Teads

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull confirmed that Australia would be excluded from the U.S. metal tariffs following an early Saturday morning discussion with Trump.

“I was very pleased the president was able to confirm‎ that he would not have to impose tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum,” Turnbull said from Adelaide, South Australia on ABC News. “It was a very good and productive discussion with the president.”

Several countries have sought to gain exemptions from the tariffs, which are set to take effect later this month. Trump has said he would consider exemptions based on national security grounds and the economic relationship between various countries and the U.S.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. wants to negotiate exemptions for the tariffs before they take effect in two weeks, as pressure grows from allies who are threatening retaliation if the duties are applied to them.

“Ideally, some of them will be dealt with in this 15-day process so that they don’t hit those countries,” Mnuchin told reporters Friday, citing the legal time-frame for implementing the tariffs. 

2. Whoa! 313,000 jobs added last month. Here's where they came from

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/09/investing/jobs-report-sector-gains/index.html

The jobs recovery is broadening out and benefiting all Americans.

There is a lot to like about the stellar February jobs report. But its most impressive takeaway is that people in traditionally blue collar and white collar industries got new jobs last month.

Of the 313,000 jobs that were added last month, 92,000 were in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Another 50,000 were from retailers that were hiring.

"Blue-collar sectors drove these gains, led by mining and construction. Manufacturing is now outpacing the economy overall, and even retail had a strong February," said Jed Kolko, chief economist with job search site Indeed, in a note titled "Almost Nobody Left Behind in February's Jobs Report."

The "professional and business services" sector also added 50,000 jobs. This group includes many office jobs -- lawyers, accountants and advertising and marketing people, for example.

The financial services sector added 28,000 jobs, led by the insurance industry as well as Wall Street jobs in the commodities contracts, securities and investment businesses.

"The breadth of these job gains is really remarkable and it really shows that the rising tide is lifting all boats," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust

For these reasons, Nixon and several other experts that CNNMoney spoke to Friday described the latest jobs number as a "Goldilocks" type of report. Not too hot. Not too cold. Just right.

"The roaring labor market brought more people back to work," Indeed's Kolko said in his report. "Best of all, the long-term unemployment rate is down to 2008 levels. The benefits of recent job growth are widely shared."

Wages also continued to grow -- albeit at a more subdued pace of 2.6% over the past 12 months.

That's still a healthy pay raise for workers, especially since consumer prices are only up 2.1% in the past year. But the wage increase was a little lower than January.

Related: Dow surges on strong jobs report

Of course, there are still some concerns that job gains could eventually moderate.

Some employers are finding that the applicants for job openings don't have the necessary experience or education needed for the positions they want to fill. That's especially the case for homebuilders.

"Job openings in the construction industry remain at historic highs. It is now a matter of providing necessary skills to go into the industry," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors , in a report.

But Nixon added that many consumers and businesses may have been spending more in the past few months and that employers have ramped up their hiring in anticipation of tax reform.

Bodhi Ganguli, lead economist at Dun & Bradstreet, isn't concerned about consumers and businesses getting ahead of themselves either.

Ganguli noted the strong job gains across the board for many industries as evidence that the job market is getting back to normal.

"There is staying power for the economy. People are coming back into the labor force," he said.

CNNMoney (New York) First published March 9, 2018: 2:34 PM ET

3. Elon Musk Says Hyperloop Will Give Pedestrians Priority Over Cars - Bloomberg

The ‘urban loop’ would involve thousands of small stations about the size of a parking space. By Sarah McBride

‎2018‎년 ‎3월‎ ‎10‎일‎ ‎오전‎ ‎10‎:‎36

Elon Musk provided a clearer glimpse of what his proposed tunnel-based transportation system could look like, and it takes a populist bent.

The billionaire technology entrepreneur said his tunneling startup, Boring Co., will prioritize pedestrians and cyclists in its hyperloop plan. The system “will still transport cars but only after all personalized mass transit needs are met,” Musk wrote on Twitter. “It’s a matter of courtesy and fairness. If someone can’t afford a car, they should go first.”

A concept video distributed last year by Musk showed carriages, which the Boring Co. calls sleds, that transport a car from point to point. A new video he tweeted on Friday demonstrated vehicles resembling subway cars carrying groups of people. They would load and unload at street level before descending into underground tunnels.

The Boring Co.’s “urban loop” would have thousands of small stations, each about the size of a parking space, where people can hop on and off, Musk wrote. This way, the trains can get passengers closer to their destinations and “blend seamlessly into the fabric of a city, rather than a small number of big stations like a subway.”

Musk published a white paper in 2013 outlining a transportation system using sealed tubes allowing for airplane-like speeds. He had once said he didn’t want to get into the business himself but changed his mind last year. The Boring Co. has begun digging test sites in Hawthorne, California, where Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is located. Musk has said he would like to build a tunnel along the west side of Los Angeles. The startup is seeking approval from local jurisdictions, including Culver City, where his proposed tunnel would run.

The Boring Co. has secured a permit for a few miles between Baltimore and Washington but hasn’t begun construction. The route could be part of a system that one day connects Washington to New York, Musk has said. Taking a pro-pedestrian stance could help the company win over officials. A spokesman for Boring Co. didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Other hyperloop companies include Virgin Hyperloop One, Arrivo and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies. The startups are involved in feasibility studies in various parts of the world but don’t yet have signed contracts to start building and operating commercially.

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