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RAJON RONDO, PG | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
진실은 극과 극의 사이에 있다. 론도는 다른 이들을 위한 샷을 창출해주지만, 자신의 득점을 위한 창출은 여전히 문제를 갖고 있다. 40 분당 득점에서 12.9에 그치며 포인트 가드들 중 52 위에 올랐다. 그리고 또한 트루 슈팅 퍼센테이지에서도 48.3의 저조한 기록을 남기며 또 52 위에 올랐다. 이런 상황은 근본적으로 그가 3점슛이나 자유투를 만들어내지 못하기 때문이다: 론도의 자유투 59.7 퍼센트 기록은 포인트 가드들 중 최악이며, 시즌 전체동안 겨우 10 개의 3점슛을 적중시켰다. 이 결과로 그의 2차 퍼센테이지는 70 포인트 가드들 중 68 위다.
론도의 2점슛 퍼센테이지조차도 (46.4) 뭐라 내세울 것이 없다. 론도는 바스켓 구역에서 58.9 퍼센트만 적중시켰는데 이전 다른 시즌에서는 이보다 훨씬 더 좋았던 적이 있었다. 장거리 2점슛에서는 37.2 퍼센트를 넣었는데, 이래서 저 거리에서 무시하지 못할 만큼 됐지만 여전히 수비는 론도가 돌파하게 하느니 저런 샷은 그냥 내주려 한다.
물론 론도가 가장 큰 큰 데미지를 주는 것은 패싱이다. 론도는 퓨어 포인트 레이팅에서 NBA 2 위로 마감했다. 여러분 생각보다 턴오버 레이쇼우는 높지만 3 분마다 하나 꼴의 어시스트를 생각하면 트집잡긴 힘들다. 여기에 첨언을 곁들이자면 리바운드 레이트에서 포인트 가드들 중 4 위에 랭크돼 있기도 하다.
일반적인 견해로는 론도의 수비가 지난 시즌 조금 하락했다는 것이다. 너무 많이 도박을 하고 에너지가 떨어졌다는 것. 상대방 포인트 가드들은 그를 상대로 10.9 PER밖에 기록하지 못한 반면, 보스턴은 코트에 그가 있을 시 더 많은 득점을 내줬으며 파울 레이트가 너무 낮았다 (20 분 당 겨우 하나 꼴). 이는 론도가 공격을 위해서 에너지를 비축하고 있었다는 생각을 지지해준다. 스틸 레이트 또한 커리어 로우를 찍었다. 다만 자기 포지션 중에서는 여전히 여유있게 평균 위에 있다. |
AVERY BRADLEY, SG | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
브래들리가 실제로 유별나게 높은 스틸 레이트를 기록했던 것은 아니다. 볼에 대해 도박을 하지 않기 때문이다. 그러나 출중한 횡측 퀵니스를 무기로 드리블러들을 집어 삼키곤 한다. 브래들리는 Synergy로부터 자기 포지션 중 최고라 할만한 점수를 받았고 상대방 가드들이 그를 만나면 PER 두 자리 수치를 채우기도 바쁘다 . 또한 셀틱스는 그가 코트에 있을 경우 100 포제션 당 4.4 득점을 덜 내줬다. 상대방 가드들은 포스트 쪽에서 그를 공략할 때 때때로 성공을 거두기도 했지만, 이 위치에서도 꽤 괜찮은 역할을 수행했다.
이와 동일한 중요도를 가졌던 것이 브래들리의 공격쪽 발전이었다. 뛰어난 것은 아니지만 플레이할 만큼은 좋은. 블래들리는 장거리 2점슛에서 41.3 퍼센트를 적중시켰고 바스켓에서는 매우 탄탄한 65.3 퍼센트를 집어 넣었다. 전체적인 그의 2점슈팅 퍼센테이지는 슈팅 가드들 중 8 위였다.
시즌동안 3점슛은 단 54 개만 시도했지만 이들 중 22 개를 적중시켜 무시할 수 없게 만들었다. 앞으로 브래들리는 장거리 샷을 제련하고 15 피트 점퍼보다는 저 거리에 중점을 둘 필요가 있다. 대부분 2점슛을 택하며 파울은 거의 끌어내지 못해 2차 퍼센테이지에서 61 슈팅 가드들 중 53 위밖에 못올랐으니 말이다.
여기에 더하여 그의 볼 스킬도 많은 훈련이 필요하다. 보스턴은 그에게 막중한 공격 임무를 주문하지 않지만 턴오버 레이쇼우는 여전히 슈팅 가드들 중 56 위에 그쳤다. 이런 수치는 작은 임무를 맡은 선수에게 납득하기 힘들다. 그리고 만약 그가 2 번치고 평균이하 볼 핸들러라면 (퓨어 포인트 레이팅에서 겨우 50 위), 그가 전략적 1 번으로 배치될 가능성은 희박해질 것으로 보인다. 힘을 실어줄 말이라면 11 월에 22 세에 접어들고 이미 꾸준하게 시간을 받고 있기 때문에 향상될 기회가 많다는 점이다. |
PAUL PIERCE, SF | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
가장 큰 퇴보는 압박 상황에서 장거리 2점슛을 훨씬 더 많이 던진다는 점인데, 겨우 35.9 퍼센트인 반면 경기 당 다섯 개를 넘기며 슛한다. 피어스의 3점슛 게임도 조금 하락했는데 (36.6 퍼센트), 여기에서도 샷 클락이 끝날 무렵 뜨거운 감자 던지기식 모양새가 있다. 그러나 그가 그냥 눈가리고 난사를 해댄 것은 아니었다: 어시스트 레이쇼우와 퓨어 포인트 레이팅에서 스몰 포워드들 중 3 위에 오르기도 했다.
수비 이야기를 하자면, 피어스는 리그의 과소 평가된 선수들 중 하나로 남아있지만, 그의 데이터는 지난 시즌만큼 강력하진 못했다. 상대 포워드들은 그를 상대로 13.3 PER을 기록했지만, 보스턴은 그가 코트에 있을 때 더 많은 득점을 내줬고 Synergy에 나온 그의 레이팅도 좋긴 하지만 평소 그의 기준에는 미치지 못했다. 에이버리 브래들리의 가세로 수비쪽 과로를 줄여줄 수 있을 것이고 다시 또 공격에서 큰 역할을 떠맡기로 한다면 저렇게 할 필요가 있다. 그러나 더 큰 윙 플레이어들을 맞이할 경우 (예를 들어 마이애미에 있는 그 친구) 계속해서 피어스가 담당해야 할 것이다. |
BRANDON BASS, PF | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
배스는 아직도 공을 잡으면 패스를 잘 하지 않는데, 어시스트 레이쇼우에서 70 파워 포워드들 중 59 위에 랭크됐다. 하지만 지난 시즌에 턴오버는 눈에 띄게 줄였다. 이는 캐치해서 장거리 2점슛으로 연결시키는 과정이 꽤나 많았던 혜택이 작용한 것이다 - 0.5 초의 포제션을 갖는 상황에서 볼을 잃어버리는 것도 힘든 일이다.
수비에서 배스는 지난 시즌 Synergy 레이팅에서 어느 정도 높은 점수를 받았지만, 주관적인 견해와 다른 메트릭스를 보면 이를 지지하기는 힘들다. 셀틱스는 그가 코트에 없을 때보다 있을 때 많은 점수를 내줬고 상대방 파워 포워드들은 그를 상대로 13.7 PER을 기록했다 (괜찮긴 하지만 그가 있는 곳이 엘리트 수비 팀이라는 것을 감안하면 좋은 것이라 할 수 없다). 배스는 터프하고 올랜도에 첫 당도했을 때보다 상황에 따라 더 샤프해졌지만, 그를 4 번으로서 중간급 그 위의 수비수로 매기긴 힘들다. |
KEVIN GARNETT, C | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
가넷은 또한 하이 포스트에서의 정교한 패서로 건재함을 보여줬다. 퓨어 포인트 레이팅에서 파워 포워드들 중 6 위에 올랐다. 전반적으로 보면 그는 단신의 선수가 갖는 스탯을 보여줬지만, 상대방 빅맨들을 외곽으로 끌어내려는 것에 어느정도 기인한다.
한편, 그의 수비는 엘리트다. 아무도 픽앤롤을 이보다 더 잘 수비못한다. Synergy 레이팅에서 더 좋은 등급을 가진 선수는 겨우 네 선수뿐이고, 그의 플러스-마이너스 환산 수치는 다섯을 제외한 모든 이들보다 좋았다. 이제 더이상 공격 리바운드에는 잘 경합하진 않지만 수비 리바운드 레이트에서 리그 12 위였으며, 플레이오프에서 그의 존재감은 정말 돋보였다. Basketballvalue. com에 따르면 보스턴은 그가 코트에 없을 경우 100 포제션 당 25.1 득점을 더 내줬었다.
가넷은 세 시즌을 더 뛰는 재계약을 했다. 그의 시간은 포스트시즌의 컨디션을 위해 20 후반대 분으로 제한될 가능성이 높겠지만, 공수 양면에서 크나큰 임팩트를 가진 선수로서는 여전하다. 신체길이와 집중력과 사이즈 대비 스킬을 감안한다면 무릎이 버텨주는 한 저 앞의 말은 계속하여 이치에 닿는 말이 될 것이다. |
RESERVES
JASON TERRY, G | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
공격쪽에서 가장 부정적인 면은 테리의 턴오버 레이쇼우가 계속하여 상승하고 있다는 점이다. 점프 슛터가 턴오버 레이쇼우로 슈팅 가드들 중 절반 밑으로 떨어져선 안될 일이지만, 지난 시즌 테리가 그랬다.
Fewest Fouls Per 40 minutes, 2011-12
그럼에도 그의 중점적인 약점은 수비에서 나온다. 수비에서 테리는 크로스 매치를 하여 상대방 포인트 가드를 체크해야 하지만, 더 재빠른 선수들은 그를 제칠 수 있으며 더 큰 선수들은 그의 머리 위에서 플레이한다. 그의 리바운드 레이트는 농구 판에서 최악의 수치들에 속해있다. 다만 그는 파울을 하지 않는다. 지난 시즌 오직 스티브 내쉬만이 그보다 휘슬을 덜 불렸다 (챠트를 보라). 보스턴의 인원 구성은 테리가 계속하여 크로스 매칭을 하도록 해줄 것이고, 이것이 가능하다면 계속하여 식스맨 역할로 매우 효과적인 모습을 보여줄 것이다. |
COURTNEY LEE, SG | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
이 결과로 3점슛을 터뜨리고 이런 류의 선수치고는 림에서 잘 집어 넣음에도 (62.6 퍼센트, 대부분 속공 피니쉬), 그의 53.4 TS%는 슈팅 가드들 사이에선 정확히 리그 평균이었으며, 그의 PER은 백업마을 영주권을 따내는 수준이다. 그는 자신의 베스트 스킬에 집중하게 된다면 더 많은 것을 보여줄 재능을 갖고 있다.
수비에서도 비슷한 스토리다. 리는 좋은 평판을 받고 있지만 결과는 그저그런 수준에 그친다. 지난 시즌 로켓츠는 그가 코트에 있을 때 그렇게 좋아지는 것이 없었다. 그가 보통 케빈 마틴과 교체하여 나옴에도 말이다. Synergy 는 실제로 그를 포지션에서 리그 평균 아래로 매겼고, 수치도 그 이전 년도에 비해 나아진 것이 없었다.
자 이제 우리에게 한가지 수수께끼가 남겨졌다. 과거의 퍼포먼스를 토대로 하면, 보스턴은 오버페이를 했다. 그러나 그의 스킬 세트를 감안한다면, 50 대 후반 TS%를 기록하고 평균 이상의 수비를 보여줄 가능성이 있다. 이 정도의 선수라면 큰 가치가 있을 것이다. |
JEFF GREEN, F | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
이번 오프시즌에 그가 사인한 4년 $36 million 계약은 기가 막히게 만들긴 하지만, 그린은 나름 어느정도 쓰임새가 있다. 다만 오클라호마가 그를 썼던 방식이 아닌 걸로. 그린은 시즌 연속으로 3점슛에서 30 퍼센트 밑을 기록했고 포스트 플레이어들에게 산산히 부서졌으며 윙 플레이어처럼 리바운드를 하여, 페이스 업 4 번으로서는 대실패작이었다.
하지만 윙으로서는 사이즈가 우위가 될 수 있다는 희망이 있고, 상대적으로 몇몇 3 번들을 상대로는 포스트에서 점프 훅을 넣을 수 있다는 희망이 있다. 한편, 2010-11 시즌 셀틱스 소속으로 몇 경기를 뛰며 나왔던 3 번으로서 그의 수비 스탯은 오클라호마시티 시절 4 번으로서 냈던 결과보다 여러모로 우세했다. 플레이오프에서 르브론 제임스같은 선수들을 막는 빅 윙의 역할을 제공해줄 수 있다는 희망도 있다. 하지만 이번 딜을 놓고 셀틱스가 과연 누구와 경쟁을 붙고 있다 생각했는지는 불분명하다. |
JARED SULLINGER, PF | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
아 그런데, 등 문제 때문에 팀들이 미루고 미루며 21 번까지 떨어지게 됐다. 언젠가가 되면 설린저는 수술을 받아야 할지 모르며, 컨디셔닝과 운동능력은 다음 단계로 나아갈 수 있는지에 대한 우려로 이미 남아 있었다. |
FAB MELO, C | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
이보다 걱정해야 할 일이라면 별 볼일 없는 리바운드 수치, 특히 수비 리바운드 수치다. 스케쥴 환산된 그의 14.3 리바운드 레이트는 7풋터치고는 부끄러운 수치다. (비교: 미주리의 6-3 슈팅 가드 마커스 덴먼과 같은 수치다.) 이미 리그에서 가장 리바운드 열세의 팀들 중 하나인 소속팀에 도움이 되기 위해서 멜로는 앞으로 리바운드를 몇 개는 더 잡아낼 필요가 있다. |
KEYON DOOLING, G | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
둘링은 또한 미스된 샷의 단 3.5 퍼센트만을 걷어내며 짐머 프레뎃과 라자 벨을 가까스로 물리치며 단독 꼴찌의 리바운드 레이트를 기록했다 (챠트를 보라) - 그리고 이런 식으로 세 시즌 연속을 보냈다. 또한 자기 포지션 중 세번째로 낮은 스틸 레이트를 기록하기도 했다.
Worst Rebound Rate, 2011-12
수비에서 둘링은 문제점을 안고 있고 지난 시즌에는 특히나 좋지 못했다. 셀틱스는 그가 코트에 섰을 때 100 포제션 당 8.5 득점을 더 내줬고, Synergy는 그를 보스턴 최악의 수비수로 매겼다. 나는 그를 나쁨보다는 평균에 더 가깝게 표현해보려 한다 - 운동능력은 잃었지만 경합을 붙어주고 단신의 득점형 가드들을 상대로 꽤 잘 매치해준다. 그래도 어쨌든 보스턴이 그를 다시 불러들였다는 사실은 조금 놀랍다. |
JASON COLLINS, C | ||||||||||||||||
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Scouting report
Analysis
이것은 D리그의 레쥬메이며, 그곳에서조차도 딱히 좋은 것이 아니다. 하지만 한가지 스킬이 저런 모든 부정적인 면들을 상쇄해 준다: Synergy는 콜린스를 호크스에서 최고의 수비수로 매겼고 리그에서는 최고 중 하나로 매겼다. 그를 보면 하는 것이 많아 보이지는 않지만, 큰 체격에 있어야 할 위치를 정확히 알고 있으며 챠지를 끌어내는 데 장기를 가지고 있다. 또한 쓸데없는 파울들을 하여 코트에 오래 서있진 못하지만, 적합한 매치업을 만날 경우 도움이 될 여지가 있다. |
CHRIS WILCOX, PF | ||||||||||||||||
CHRIS WILCOX, PF
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Scouting report
Analysis
아마도 가장 긍정적인 징후는 이전보다 수비에서 더 저항의 의지를 보여줬다는 점이다. 비록 셀틱스가 코트에 그가 없을 때 더 잘 플레이했고 상대방 빅맨들이 그를 상대로 17.2 PER을 기록하긴 했지만, 우리가 이전 시즌들에서 봤던 것들보다 집중력과 피지컬함에 있어 한 단계 상승한 모습을 보여줬다. 윌콕스는 아직 29 세이며, 따라서 컴백하여 쓸만한 로테이션 플레이어로서 기여할 것이다. 특히 그가 원래 있던 4 번 자리에서. 하지만 플로어에 스페이싱을 제공해주지 못하는 능력이 계속하여 코트 시간에 제동을 걸 것이다. |
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Scouting report
Analysis |
원문은 아래 더보기 클릭
PROJECTED STARTERS
RAJON RONDO, PG
Scouting report
+ Long-armed, creative point guard who penetrates at will and sees the floor.
+ Erratic outside shooter but good short-range finisher. Terrible foul shooter.
+ Disruptive defender. Will over-gamble at times. Great rebounder for his size.
Analysis
One of the league's most unique players, Rondo is either great or horrible at nearly everything, producing wildly divergent viewpoints as to his overall value. In the same season, he was passed over in favor of Luol Deng for the All-Star team and named on eight MVP ballots.
The truth is somewhere in between. Rondo can create shots for others, but generating his own points remains problematic. He scored only 12.9 points per 40 minutes, placing him 52nd among point guards, and was also 52nd in true shooting percentage at a lowly 48.3. This is mainly because he doesn't generate 3-pointers or free throws: Rondo's 59.7 percent mark from the line was the worst of any point guard, and he made only 10 3-pointers the entire season. As a result, his secondary percentage was 68th out of 70 point guards.
Even his 2-point percentage (46.4) was nothing to write home about; Rondo made only 58.9 percent in the basket area and has done much better in other seasons. He hit 37.2 percent of his long 2s, so he's becoming almost respectable from that distance, but defenses still would much rather concede this shot than let Rondo penetrate.
Of course, his passing is what does most of the damage. Rondo finished second in the NBA in pure point rating; while his turnover ratio is higher than you'd prefer, it's tough to quibble with an assist every three minutes. As an added plus, he also ranked fourth among point guards in rebound rate.
The general consensus was that Rondo's defense slipped a bit last season, that he gambled too much and his effort wavered. While opposing point guards mustered just a 10.9 PER against him, Boston gave up more points with him on the court, and his foul rate was so low (barely one every 20 minutes) that it supported the idea that he was saving himself for the offensive end. His steals rate was also a career low, although still well above par for his position.
AVERY BRADLEY, SG
Scouting report
+ Elite perimeter defender. Excels at pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers.
+ Undersized for a 2 but not a point guard. Solid midrange shooter but lacks range.
+ Must improve left hand and cut turnovers. Good finisher. Poor rebounder.
Analysis
An already good Boston defense reached another level when Bradley took over as the starting shooting guard, and he looks to be a fixture for several seasons based on his suffocating ball pressure.
Bradley actually didn't have an unusually high steal rate, as he didn't take gambles off the ball, but on it he routinely devoured dribblers with his outstanding lateral quickness. Bradley had some of the best Synergy scores at his position and held opposing guards to barely double digit PERs; the Celtics also gave up 4.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. Opposing 2s occasionally found success attacking him in the post, but even there he did a fairly solid job.
Of equal importance was Bradley's offensive development -- not great but good enough to play. Bradley made 41.3 percent of his long 2s and converted a very strong 65.3 percent at the basket; overall, his 2-point shooting percentage was eighth among shooting guards.
While he attempted only 54 3-pointers on the season, he made a respectable 22 of them. Bradley will need to refine his long-range shot and rely on it instead of all the 15-footers, as he ranked just 53rd out of 61 shooting guards in secondary percentage by taking mostly 2s and rarely drawing fouls.
Additionally, his ball skills need a lot of work. Boston didn't ask a ton of him offensively, but his turnover ratio still ranked 56th among shooting guards. That's not acceptable for a bit player, and if he's a subpar ball handler for a 2 (just 50th in pure point rating), it seems a long shot that he can become a functional point guard. On a positive note, he turns 22 in November and has a chance to improve substantially because he's already getting consistent minutes.
PAUL PIERCE, SF
Scouting report
+ Multifaceted scoring threat who can pull up or drive to the basket. Draws fouls.
+ Excellent midrange shooter off the dribble. Can make spot-up 3s. Good handle.
+ Vastly underrated defender. Strong, tough and moves his feet.
Analysis
Pierce turns 35 in October and will likely begin showing signs of age at some point. We just don't know when that will be. Last season, he actually took on a much greater offensive load given the struggles of Boston's secondary players, ranking fourth among small forwards in usage rate, and it didn't seem to hurt him. Pierce's TS% dropped, understandably, but he still finished a solid eighth among small forwards in this category and belied his age by converting 64.8 percent at the rim. He also still draws fouls like nobody's business, ranking fourth in free throw rate at his position despite shooting mostly jumpers.
The biggest drawback was that he took a lot more long 2s under duress, making only 35.9 percent while shooting more than five a game. Pierce's 3-point game also slipped a bit (36.6 percent), again because he was hoisting more hot potatoes at the end of the shot clock. However, he wasn't just blind gunning -- he also finished in the top third of small forwards in assist ratio and pure point rating.
Defensively, Pierce remains one of the league's more underrated players, but his data wasn't quite as strong last season. Opposing small forwards had a 13.3 PER against him, but Boston gave up more points with him on the court and his Synergy rating, while strong, wasn't up to his usual standard. The addition of Avery Bradley should save him some wear at the defensive end, and he'll need it if he's going to take on such a large offensive role again. But against the bigger wings -- like that guy on Miami, for instance -- it's still Pierce getting the assignment.
BRANDON BASS, PF
Scouting report
+ Tough, strong but undersized big man with an accurate midrange jump shot.
+ Can be effective driving right and finishing. Rarely looks to pass.
+ Average at best defensively. Lacks length and has limited help awareness.
Analysis
Bass actually had a bad offensive season by his standards, but in one particular area he was stellar -- the guy is money on pick-and-pop jumpers. Bass made 48.1 percent of his shots from 10 to 23 feet and was one of just 20 players to take more than 400 shots from this range. Unfortunately, he shot better on jumpers than closer to the hoop, converting only 47.6 percent from inside 10 feet. He drew a decent number of fouls for a jump shooter and provided solid, reasonably efficient scoring, but he's done better in previous seasons.
Bass still rarely passes once he catches it, ranking 59th out of 70 power forwards in assist ratio, but last season he significantly cut down on his turnovers. That's the one benefit of shooting so many long 2s off the catch -- it's tough to lose the ball when it's in your possession for only half a second.
Defensively, Bass had some of the highest Synergy ratings in the NBA last season, but subjective observation and other metrics fail to back that up. The Celtics gave up more points with him on the court than off of it, and opposing power forwards had a 13.7 PER against him -- solid but hardly exceptional given the elite defensive team surrounding him. He's tough and he's become much sharper situationally than when he first got to Orlando, but it's hard to rate him as more than a midtier defender at this spot.
KEVIN GARNETT, C
Scouting report
+ Intense, long, slender big man who excels in help defense. Strong leader.
+ Mostly shoots midrange jumps. Rarely posts up. Excellent passer.
+ Good handle for his size. Has struggled with knee problems. Plays very hard.
Analysis
When Garnett finished the first month of the season, he couldn't jump and was noticeably dragging his leg. But as the year went on, he turned into the KG of old, abetted by a midseason shift to center. His season-ending stats were nearly the same as the year before, although he continued his drift to the perimeter. Nearly two-thirds of his shots were beyond 10 feet, and he converted an excellent 45.9 percent of them. However, Garnett took advantage of his length, especially in the playoffs -- he went to the post much more often for short-range turnarounds and showed he can still be extremely effective from that spot.
Garnett also remains an exquisite passer from the high post, ranking sixth among power forwards in pure point rating. All told, he has the stats of a much shorter player, but that's partially due to dragging opposing bigs out to the perimeter.
Meanwhile, his defense is elite -- nobody defends the pick-and-roll better. Only four players had a better Synergy rating, and his regularized adjusted plus-minus was better than all but five players. He was 12th in the league in defensive rebound rate, although he rarely contests the offensive boards anymore, and in the playoffs his presence was especially palpable. Boston gave up a 25.1 points per 100 possessions more when he was off the court, according to basketballvalue.com.
Garnett is re-signed for three more seasons, and while his minutes are likely to be restricted to the high 20s to keep him fresh for the postseason, he remains a hugely impactful player at both ends. Given his length, intensity and skill for his size, that should remain the case for as long as his knees can hold up.
RESERVES
JASON TERRY, G
Scouting report
+ Fast combo guard with deadly midrange jump shot, especially going right.
+ Not a true point guard but capable of creating off the dribble. Abysmal rebounder.
+ Lacks size and strength on defense but has fast hands. Better in cross-matches.
Analysis
Terry has become an ageless wonder, still putting up numbers as an undersized 2-guard thanks to his devastating accuracy with the jump shot. Terry shot 42.1 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet and 37.8 percent on 3s, with the latter accounting for nearly half of his shots. As a result, he averaged nearly a point every two minutes with a solid TS% even though he virtually never gets to the rim.
The biggest negative, offensively, is that Terry's turnover ratio keeps climbing. A jump shooter shouldn't be in the bottom half of shooting guards in turnover ratio, but Terry was last season.
Nonetheless, his primary shortcoming is at the defensive end. Terry has to cross-match defensively and check the opposing point guard, but quicker players can get by him and bigger ones play right over the top. His rebound rates are among the worst in basketball, although he doesn't foul -- only Steve Nash was whistled less often last season (see chart). Boston's personnel should allow Terry to keep cross-matching, and if so he'll continue to be very effective in his sixth man role.
COURTNEY LEE, SG
Scouting report
+ Athletic wing who plays solid defense. Deadly corner 3-point shooter.
+ Limited ball skills but a good leaper and finisher. Mediocre shooter off the bounce.
+ Shies away from contact on drives and rarely draws fouls. Rarely goes left.
Analysis
A classic role-playing wing on paper, Lee has had trouble making good on the theory. Lee has shot better than 40 percent on 3s in consecutive seasons, and the only question is why he doesn't do it more. Over the past two seasons, barely a third of his shots have been 3-point attempts -- a poor rate for such an effective sniper. Lee likes to take a bounce inside the line for 2s but isn't nearly as effective from that range, making only 36.5 percent of his long 2s last season and 36.7 percent the year before.
As a result, even though he makes 3s and shoots well at the rim for a player of this ilk (62.6 percent, mostly on fast-break finishes), his TS% of 53.4 was exactly at the league average for shooting guards, and his PER was firmly in Backupville. He has the talent to do more if he focuses on his best skills.
Defensively, it's a similar story -- Lee has an excellent reputation but only middling results. Last season, the Rockets didn't fare any better with him on the court, even though he was usually replacing Kevin Martin. Synergy actually rated him below the league average at his position, and the numbers weren't any better the year before.
So we're left with a conundrum. On past performance, Boston overpaid. But given his skill set, he offers the promise of a high-50s TS% and above-average defense -- a player like that would be hugely valuable.
JEFF GREEN, F
Scouting report
+ Combo forward who can handle the ball and post up against smaller players.
+ Subpar outside shooter. Good finisher in transition. Not an elite athlete.
+ Was destroyed by post-up 4s. Solid wing defender against 3s.
Analysis
Green didn't play at all last season after having heart surgery. In the four seasons prior, he had done nothing to prove he was more than a passable combo forward off the bench. As a result, the Celtics gave him more money than Kevin Garnett.
While the four-year, $36 million contract he signed this offseason boggles the mind, Green does have some uses. Just not the ways Oklahoma City used him. Green was a train wreck as a face-up 4, shooting under 30 percent on 3s in consecutive seasons, getting torn apart by post players and rebounding like a wing.
As a wing, however, there's the hope that his size will become an advantage, and that he can take some smaller 3s on the block with his jump hook. Meanwhile, his defensive stats as a 3 in his few games as a Celtic in 2010-11 were vastly superior to his results as a 4 in Oklahoma City. The hope is he can provide another big wing to guard the likes of LeBron James in the playoffs, but it's not clear whom the Celtics thought they were bidding against with this deal.
JARED SULLINGER, PF
Scouting report
+ Powerful 4 with a wide base. Low-post scorer with good midrange touch.
+ Physical rebounder. Plays below rim. Not a great athlete. Back injury a concern.
Analysis
Just on basketball, Sullinger should have been a higher pick. He's not going to be a great defensive player, but offensively he's a bull who may average a double-double at some point. He dominated the paint in his two years at Ohio State, and while he'll have to prove he can get baskets against size, he'll also have a lot more pick-and-pop chances than he did in college. Basically, he projects as a better version of Brandon Bass.
Alas, his back freaked out teams enough that he fell to No. 21. Sullinger may need surgery at some point, and his conditioning and athleticism were already worrisome at the next level.
FAB MELO, C
Scouting report
+ Outstanding shot-blocker with ideal size and length for a center.
+ Poor rebounder for his size. Lacks offensive feel. Iffy hands and limited range.
Analysis
A Brazilian import, Melo had the best shot-blocking rate of any draftee with two eyebrows, and that's the primary reason Boston invested a first-round pick. He's fairly old for a first-rounder at 22, but given his delayed development, there's hope he can add a few more offensive elements to his repertoire. He's not a terrible foul shooter and his assist/turnover rates at Syracuse were a lot better than that of many other centers, so he's not irredeemable at that end.
More worrisome were his pedestrian board numbers, especially defensively, where his 14.3 schedule-adjusted rebound rate was embarrassing for a 7-footer. (Comparison: He had the same mark as Missouri's 6-foot-3 shooting guard Marcus Denmon.) Melo will need to grab a few more boards to help what is already among the league's most rebound-challenged teams.
KEYON DOOLING, G
Scouting report
+ Quick combo guard who is a strong defender at both guard spots.
+ Decent spot-up shooter but struggles off the dribble. Lacks handle to create shots.
+ Weak finisher at the rim. Not a point guard. Terrible rebounder.
Analysis
Dooling had his moments, especially in Boston's playoff run. But all told it was tough to justify keeping him on the court with such anemic production -- he finished last among point guards in PER. Half his shots were 3s, but he only made 33.3 percent, and his production was otherwise miniscule. He averaged only 11 points and three assists per 40 minutes, and among point guards, he had the eighth-worst assist ratio and seventh-worst pure point rating.
Dooling also had the single worst rebound rate in basketball, retrieving only 3.5 percent of missed shots -- his third straight season in that range -- to narrowly outpace Jimmer Fredette and Raja Bell (see chart). He also had the third-lowest rate of steals at his position.
Defensively, Dooling has issues and wasn't particularly good at this end last season. The Celtics gave up 8.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and Synergy rated him as Boston's worst defender. I'd describe him more as average than bad -- he's lost athleticism, but he competes and matches up fairly well against the shorter scoring guards. Still, it was a bit of a surprise to see Boston bring him back.
JASON COLLINS, C
Scouting report
+ Elite low-post defender who stymies big centers with size and smarts.
+ Physical. Great at drawing offensive fouls. Awful rebounder. Ponderously slow.
+ Horrid finisher. No handle or post game. Will occasionally make a 12-footer.
Analysis
Collins hardly played until the Hawks dusted him off for the playoffs, where he played impressive defense and did shockingly little else. Collins averaged just 5.1 points per 40 minutes, shot 40 percent, rebounded like a guard and had nearly as many fouls as points.
That's a D-League résumé, and not a particularly good one. But one skill offset all those negatives: Synergy rated Collins as the best defender on the Hawks and one of the best in the league. He doesn't look like he's doing much, but he's big, knows exactly where to be and excels at taking charges. He also fouls with abandon and can't stay on the court long, but he can still be helpful in the right matchup.
CHRIS WILCOX, PF
Scouting report
+ High-leaping finisher who excels as a pick-and-roll dive man. Poor shooter.
+ Subpar defensive player who lacks intensity and strength. Fouls often.
+ No post game. Weak ball handler. Solid rebounder at both ends.
Analysis
Wilcox played 28 games before a heart problem unexpectedly ended his season, and while he predictably declined from his Fluke Rule campaign of a year earlier, he still showed he can be a high-percentage finisher by converting 59.8 percent from the floor. Wilcox's rebound rate dipped, however, and his turnover ratio nearly doubled.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign was that he showed more defensive resistance than in previous stops. While the Celtics played better with him off the court and opposing bigs had a 17.2 PER against him, his attention and physicality went up a notch from what we'd seen in previous years. Wilcox is only 29, so he should be able to come back and contribute as a decent rotation player, especially at his more natural 4 spot. However, his inability to space the floor is always going to limit his court time.
KRIS JOSEPH, SF
Scouting report
+ Athletic, hustling 3 with limited offensive skills. Midrange shooter.
+ Decent handle for his size. Average rebounder. Needs to add strength.
Analysis
A late second-round pick, Joseph's best shot at sticking is to play the energizer role with his defense and leaping ability. Short of that, it's not obvious what he brings to the table. Despite his reputation as a leaper, his block and rebound rates were ordinary. He's nothing special as a shooter or scorer, either, and at 23 he's quite old for a rookie. Boston has had a love affair with the "athletic hustling wing that can't play offense" archetype dating back to Orien Greene and has made it work on occasion (most recently with Avery Bradley). But I'd be surprised if Joseph sticks.
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첫댓글 확실히 브래들리는 스틸시도 자체가 작죠, 그냥 달라 붙어서 귀찮게 하니, 그리고 코트니 리는 3점이 좋지만 슈터라는 느낌은 확실히 덜납니다. 제프 그린은 4번 보다는 3번서 피어스의 보디가드로 보는듯하고
브래들리는 3점 자체에 자신감을 좀 더 가졌으면 합니다. 론도가 있기에 브래들리가 굳이 수비수를 찢어놓을 필요는 없겠지만, 다소 부족한 드리블 능력때문에 수비수를 찢어놓고 돌파해 들어가는 능력이 떨어지는 만큼 확실한 오픈챈스에서 좀 더 가다듬을 필요가 있을거 같아 보이더군요. 잘 읽었습니다.
잘 봤습니다. 보스턴팬으로서 선수들 부상만 없으면 기대되는 시즌이네요~ 작년보다 뎁스는 확실히 깊어졌고.. 센터포지션만 좀 걱정되네요. 가넷ㅠㅠㅠ
구성은 작년에 비해 탄탄해진것 같은데, 2,4번에서 풍기는 불안감은 어쩔 수 없네요
하지만 닥 감독이 있기에 기대합니다 ㅎ
끈적끈적하게 갑시다!! ㅎ